USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week!USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week (Sept 23-29, 2024)
As we look ahead to the coming week, USDJPY appears poised for a potential slightly bullish bias. This outlook is based on a confluence of fundamental factors and current market conditions that favor USD strength relative to the Japanese yen. Below is a breakdown of key drivers supporting this outlook, along with insights that could influence price action.
1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance
One of the key drivers for a potential bullish bias in USDJPY next week is the persistent hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Although the Fed opted to pause rate hikes in September, policymakers have indicated that they are open to further tightening if inflationary pressures persist. Recent inflation data in the U.S. showed a slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), suggesting that the Fed may still consider additional rate hikes in 2024. Higher U.S. interest rates would continue to bolster the U.S. dollar, driving demand for USDJPY as traders seek yield differentials.
2. Bank of Japan's Dovish Policy
In stark contrast to the Fed, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy, including negative interest rates and yield curve control. The BoJ's dovish approach continues to weigh on the Japanese yen, especially in an environment where other major central banks are tightening monetary policy. While some market participants expect the BoJ to consider policy changes in the future, there have been no concrete signals indicating a shift in the near term. This widening policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ is a key factor supporting a bullish outlook for USDJPY.
3. Safe Haven Demand Waning
The yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of global market volatility. However, recent market stability, coupled with optimism surrounding global growth prospects, has reduced demand for the yen as a haven. As risk sentiment improves, investors are more likely to allocate capital into higher-yielding assets, which could further weaken the yen.
Moreover, geopolitical tensions that previously supported yen demand have eased slightly, making USDJPY more likely to drift higher in a low-risk environment.
4. U.S. Treasury Yields Rising
Another factor contributing to the bullish bias in USDJPY is the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Higher yields on U.S. government bonds make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors, adding upward pressure to USDJPY. The correlation between USDJPY and U.S. Treasury yields is well-documented, and as yields rise, so too does the currency pair. Traders will be closely monitoring U.S. economic data next week, including durable goods orders and GDP figures, to gauge the potential for further yield increases.
5. Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels
From a technical perspective, USDJPY is trading within a well-defined range, but with a slight bullish bias as long as it holds above key support at the 147.50 level. A break above the psychological 150.00 level could open the door to further upside, with resistance seen at 151.50. On the downside, failure to hold above 147.50 could lead to a test of lower levels around 146.00. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are currently neutral but leaning slightly toward overbought territory, suggesting room for further gains before a pullback.
6. U.S. Economic Data Next Week
Next week, market participants will pay close attention to several high-impact economic reports out of the U.S., including the Durable Goods Orders on Tuesday and GDP Growth on Thursday. Positive readings on these metrics could fuel further gains in USDJPY, reinforcing the bullish bias. Conversely, any disappointing data could dampen USD strength and lead to some consolidation in the pair.
Conclusion
Given the combination of hawkish signals from the Fed, the BoJ's ongoing dovish stance, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and waning safe-haven demand, USDJPY appears to have a slightly bullish bias heading into next week. Traders should watch for any shifts in risk sentiment or unexpected economic data that could alter this outlook. The key levels to watch are 147.50 for support and 150.00 for resistance.
Keywords: USDJPY forecast, USDJPY bullish, USDJPY analysis, Bank of Japan policy, Federal Reserve rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields, Japanese yen, safe-haven demand, forex trading, USDJPY technical analysis, USDJPY key levels, USDJPY next week, trading USDJPY.
Usdjpy-analysis
USDJPY H4 28 Feb 2024USD/JPY, H4 28 February 2024
The Japanese Yen experienced a boost from its positive CPI data released yesterday, although the
initial momentum has tapered, leaving the currency pair in a consolidation phase at recent highs. The
upcoming release of U.S. GDP data later today is highly anticipated, poised to be a significant
economic indicator that could steer the direction of the currency pair. Moreover, market participants
are also keenly awaiting the U.S. PCE reading, scheduled for Thursday, adding another layer of
anticipation to the week's economic calendar.
The pair has formed a higher high, and an ascending triangle price pattern suggests a potential
bullish trend for the pair. The RSI is hovering near the 50 level while the MACD declines to near the
zero line, suggesting the bullish momentum has drastically eased.
Resistance level: 151.85, 154.90
Support level: 149.50, 147.60
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BUY ANALYSIS ON USDJPYThere are multiple confirmations for this buy trade. Firstly we have the change in market structure. secondly, we have the inverse head and shoulder pattern. Thirdly, we have the break out of the trend line after 3 touches. We can also see price try to break the support zone but it could not. So therefore, we await the retest of the trend line before we go long. Thank you
USD/JPY chart detail overviewThe USD/JPY chart is a graphical representation of the exchange rate between the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. It shows the current value of the pair and its fluctuation in the past.
1] The USD/JPY pair is commonly referred to as the "Gopher" because it is the most liquid currency pair in the world.
The chart provides traders with a comprehensive view of the current and historical price of the pair, allowing them to make informed decisions on their trades.
It also offers a wide range of technical indicators such as moving averages, Fibonacci levels, and momentum indicators that can help traders make informed decisions. With the current market conditions, the USD/JPY is trading at 109.13 and is up 0.43% for the day.
USD/JPY: Current Market Trend and Opportunity for Trade
The USD/JPY currency pair is one of the most popular and heavily traded currencies in the world. Recently, the pair has been in a strong uptrend, with the USD gaining strength and the JPY weakening. This has allowed traders to take advantage of profitable trading opportunities. In this article, we will take a look at the current market trend and opportunity for trade when it comes to the USD/JPY currency pair.
The USD/JPY pair has been on an uptrend since May 2020, when it was trading at a low of 105.50. Since then, the pair has steadily gained in value, reaching a high of 118.50
The USD/JPY pair has been volatile in recent weeks, with developments in the markets and official meetings having a significant impact on the performance of the pair. On Monday, the Japanese Yen strengthened against the US Dollar as speculators anticipated the Bank of Japan to take a hawkish stance later this year due to high inflation . Furthermore, weaker equity markets continue to support the safe-haven nature of the Yen, while expectations for a less aggressive Fed policy stance are also contributing to the pair's downward slide
. The latest JPY market news, analysis and Japanese Yen trading forecast from leading DailyFX experts and research team has also been giving insight on the movements of the currency pair
. On Friday, the Japanese yen was in positive territory, with the exception of Monday when the pair jumped 1.8%. The gain was driven by the unexpectedly strong US employment report, which dampened hopes of a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve
. Thus, market news and meetings have a significant impact on the performance of the USD/JPY pair.
USDJPY ANALYSISHere we're waiting to take a position
I think that the price will break the resistance, pull back to say in the range, and follow the trend. If it doesn't do so now in this case, it will later.
plus we have THE AM 50 as a support under the price and the AM 200 that the price would brake if it wanted to go down. Lastly, we don't have any divergence in the RCI.
USDJPYthis pair was stuck in the zone beetween 145 to 144 seems like its gona break resistance and head up to 147 highlighted with rectangle, if we look back as clearlly you all can see, its been 27 years a go and on that point we have the bearish movment for long, however if it break the 147.800 it might head up. what you all think about this pair, let me know in the comment.
USDJPY: Facing resistance at 114.30-60 areaUSDJPY is facing resistance at 114.30-60 area and we are going to test it with SELL positions at 114.32 and 114.62. So our strategy will be the following:
Entry1: SELL@114.32
Entry2: SELL@114.62
SL: 114.85
TP1: 114.00
TP2: 114.20 (if both entries are triggered)
USDJPY: The pullback seems to be overUSDJPY has reached the first important resistance levels for a pullback after the break of the H&S pattern and now we believe that a new leg down is in the making.
We are sellers at current levels (114.15-20) adding more at 114.50. We will set our stop aabove 114.65 targeting 113.80 and 113.60
USD/JPY - 22/11/2021(H4) - Price forming bearish structure creating lower lows and lower highs, we have approached a level of support around 113.783 which we do need to be mindful of. Previous candle closed as an indecision showing no control from buyers or sellers. Based on this candle we could see the next push phase begin here (we are also sat around 618 fib level). I expect price to create a wick to the upside before reversing. This could look like a break out break back in or a retest of resistance before reversing.
(M15) - Clean trendline formed on this pullback. Ideally I want to see a break of 114.032 to look for a short entry.