UJ Prepping Falling Wedge Breakout To Start 2025?FX:USDJPY starts 2025 in what appears to be a Falling Wedge, but following the 50% Fibonacci Retracement based from the Low @ 148.639 to start December 2024 to the High @ 158.874 last month, Price seems to may be ready to setup for a Bullish Break of this Pattern.
To see if FX:USDJPY has truly Broken Out of the Falling Wedge, here are some signals:
1) While price travels lower in the Falling Wedge, we can see Volume picks up the lower price goes
2) The Breaking Candle following the 2nd 50% Retracement touch generates a good amount of Bullish Volume compared to the similarly sized printed Bullish Candle following the 1st 50% Retracement touch (both candles marked in yellow to compare)
3) Following this Break, we see RSI Break above the 50 mark moving into Bullish territory.
** Buy Opportunities will come if Price successfully retest the Break of the Falling Resistance and finds Support.
-- Beware of a False Break if Price decides to fall back down Below the Falling Resistance too soon before a legitimate test.
Usdjpy-bullish
USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week!USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week (Sept 23-29, 2024)
As we look ahead to the coming week, USDJPY appears poised for a potential slightly bullish bias. This outlook is based on a confluence of fundamental factors and current market conditions that favor USD strength relative to the Japanese yen. Below is a breakdown of key drivers supporting this outlook, along with insights that could influence price action.
1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance
One of the key drivers for a potential bullish bias in USDJPY next week is the persistent hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Although the Fed opted to pause rate hikes in September, policymakers have indicated that they are open to further tightening if inflationary pressures persist. Recent inflation data in the U.S. showed a slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), suggesting that the Fed may still consider additional rate hikes in 2024. Higher U.S. interest rates would continue to bolster the U.S. dollar, driving demand for USDJPY as traders seek yield differentials.
2. Bank of Japan's Dovish Policy
In stark contrast to the Fed, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy, including negative interest rates and yield curve control. The BoJ's dovish approach continues to weigh on the Japanese yen, especially in an environment where other major central banks are tightening monetary policy. While some market participants expect the BoJ to consider policy changes in the future, there have been no concrete signals indicating a shift in the near term. This widening policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ is a key factor supporting a bullish outlook for USDJPY.
3. Safe Haven Demand Waning
The yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of global market volatility. However, recent market stability, coupled with optimism surrounding global growth prospects, has reduced demand for the yen as a haven. As risk sentiment improves, investors are more likely to allocate capital into higher-yielding assets, which could further weaken the yen.
Moreover, geopolitical tensions that previously supported yen demand have eased slightly, making USDJPY more likely to drift higher in a low-risk environment.
4. U.S. Treasury Yields Rising
Another factor contributing to the bullish bias in USDJPY is the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Higher yields on U.S. government bonds make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors, adding upward pressure to USDJPY. The correlation between USDJPY and U.S. Treasury yields is well-documented, and as yields rise, so too does the currency pair. Traders will be closely monitoring U.S. economic data next week, including durable goods orders and GDP figures, to gauge the potential for further yield increases.
5. Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels
From a technical perspective, USDJPY is trading within a well-defined range, but with a slight bullish bias as long as it holds above key support at the 147.50 level. A break above the psychological 150.00 level could open the door to further upside, with resistance seen at 151.50. On the downside, failure to hold above 147.50 could lead to a test of lower levels around 146.00. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are currently neutral but leaning slightly toward overbought territory, suggesting room for further gains before a pullback.
6. U.S. Economic Data Next Week
Next week, market participants will pay close attention to several high-impact economic reports out of the U.S., including the Durable Goods Orders on Tuesday and GDP Growth on Thursday. Positive readings on these metrics could fuel further gains in USDJPY, reinforcing the bullish bias. Conversely, any disappointing data could dampen USD strength and lead to some consolidation in the pair.
Conclusion
Given the combination of hawkish signals from the Fed, the BoJ's ongoing dovish stance, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and waning safe-haven demand, USDJPY appears to have a slightly bullish bias heading into next week. Traders should watch for any shifts in risk sentiment or unexpected economic data that could alter this outlook. The key levels to watch are 147.50 for support and 150.00 for resistance.
Keywords: USDJPY forecast, USDJPY bullish, USDJPY analysis, Bank of Japan policy, Federal Reserve rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields, Japanese yen, safe-haven demand, forex trading, USDJPY technical analysis, USDJPY key levels, USDJPY next week, trading USDJPY.
BULLISH TRI BREAK to Finish ABC Move for +2500 PIPS?! - UJHere I have USDJPY on the Weekly Chart!
Price has been meeting all the criteria since its LOWEST LOW recorded @ 75.565 in Oct. 2011 to have then started what looks to be a Correction Wave (ABC).
*This Low also seems to have been the completion of the 5th Wave of the Impulse Wave since UJ hit markets in Jan. 1971!!
On the chart you will see that we have continued to make HIGHER HIGHS & LOWS since our Low of 2011 and price after making its HIGHS, finding support at the Target Fib'd Retracement Levels!
This month of April has been a remarkable month for USD in the UJ pair:
-April has been nothing but overall BULLISH for UJ
-The past 2 weeks has not only given us a Break up out of the Resistance Zone of ( 151.944 - 149.710) that has contained our Highs since Oct. '22 but has CONTINUED to reach even HIGHER giving us a BULLISH BREAK of the BULLISH TRIANGLE that price has formed with our Resistance Zone and Rising Support created by our LOWS in Jan. of 2023 & 2024!
Fundamentally what really pushes this move is the fact that the USD is now looking to keep rates still "Higher For Longer" with potentially only 2 Rate Cuts this year!! This can really feed favorability from investors towards the USD!
What does this all mean??
Firstly, we want to see if this CURRENT HIGH price is moving on is VALID!!
*I would like to see Price retrace to test these HIGHS in the Resistance Zone of ( 151.944 - 149.710) to see if this level changes to SUPPORT!!
-If so, we will be looking to be BUYERS!!
Potential Range Target - ( 178.097 - 196.821 )
USDJPYMarket rally after break and retest of previous resistance becoming support
nice engulfing candlestick at zone
did not enter on initial wick rejection as price has not moved away from resistance zone
waiting on market to retrace to support
alert set at 132 yen
once price pullback, and starts rejecting zone (south wick) I will enter bullish
stop loss below structure or 50 MA
take profit 3x risk or future potential resistance
USDJPY - Bullish IdeaAs shown USDJPY has broken out of the bearish channel and showed and showed support with a bullish momentum with a double bottom and by jumping from the trend line of the bearish channel. Moving forward we can expect USDJPY to continue moving towards the target levels of 134.000, 137.000, and 140.900 with an invalidation level of this idea being at 127.996.
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USDJPY Bullish Trend ContinuesPrice is trading in a bullish direction as an impulse move, the 1-2-3-4-5 sequence is close to completing we just have to wait for the wave 5 make a new high. The are scenarios where wave five fails to make new high this scenario is called Truncation. The waves 1 and 4 are not overlapped making this a valid impulse pattern the wave 4 is completed and we seeing price make the wave 5 first leg we will continue moving in the bullish direction.
USDJPY TO 139"Based on a thorough technical analysis, I have identified an ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and a bearish flag formation on the daily chart. Additionally, a doji pattern has been observed on the monthly chart, indicating potential market indecision. On Wednesday, it is expected that the DXY will experience a rise due to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Furthermore, Governor Kuroda's recent statement refusing to tighten monetary policy is likely to result in a weaker Japanese Yen, thereby contributing to the expected rise in the DXY. I wish all traders a profitable and successful trading week ahead."
USDJPY - Potential Bullish Reversal!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
on MONTHLY: Left Chart
USDJPY is sitting around a demand zone in blue so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes.
on H4: Right Chart
For the bulls to take over, we need a momentum candle close above the orange neckline.
Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, USDJPY can still trade lower.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
USDCHF Correction and continuation - BUYWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**USDCHF - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
We are looking at a range bound USDJPYFor now we are looking at an efficient market this means a rage is formed as buyers and sells have agreed on the current pricing of the USDJPY.
We are looking for the next risk factor that will have the market value USD higher than it does JPY.
To the Robinhood Trading Community this means:
For us we continue to look at the USDJPY with a bullish bias even if it drops the upward trend wont be broken here unless we move lower than the previous price the market agreed upon between 137.5 and 131.5.
We continue to distribute trades that have been on our books since June 2022 and we take profits on trades that have reached above and beyond our 625 pip TPs while using this time of market efficiency to load up on new bullish trades at the lows of the range.
GOLD LONG TERM BUY UPDATEHere's an update from the video analysis I uploaded at the start of the month. Gold has broken out of the bearish wedge with a strong, bullish impulse, retested the TL, now nicely moving to the upside📈
Bare in mind, this is still only the START of a LONG TERM move! Invest into cheap prices while you still have the chance. Scroll through my channel to see the 'before'🦾
Drop a like if you agree and follow to keep up to date with the latest analysis✅
Bullish Divergence USDJPYBullish divergence appearing on USDJPY. Yen should appreciate, hit some resistance then continue up to around the $140 level. Also Japan is geographically closer to China which has been acting erratically in terms of military action. China is also Japans largest trading partner so they would be hit hard by war in western pacific, moreso than US.
CADCHF.... POTENTIAL LONG OPPORTUNITYHello traders,
I know its been a while since I post a trade idea. Reason is that, my style of trading doesn't allow me take so many trades and it is only trades that I am interested in I post here.
For CADCHF, I am bearish as price hit a strong weekly supply region. However, there might be a long opportunity as price has cleared the daily equal lows (switch to daily timeframe and look left). This should give liquidity for the bullish move.
Do note that price can still go lower to tap into a stronger demand zone at 0.7310. But right now, based on my trading plan, this pair is ready to go long. If it goes against me, I will be looking at the 0.7310 region for market to shift to a bullish structure. At this level, I am sure that there will be a strong demand for CAD.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
Cheers!!!
EURUSD.... SEE WHY MANY PEOPLE LOST THIS TRADE... AVOID ITHello Traders,
So today I am doing a trade recap on a trade I lost due to lack of detail. Note, in trading, after knowing how trading works, every thing comes down to the level of attention/detail you give to your chart.
Detail, detail, detail... never forget.
I have labelled the chart accordingly so your understanding can be seamless. But if you still need clarity let me know.
I use my weekend to analyse why my trade won or lost. And this is an approach to trading that people should undertake. This should come after journaling your trade.
The thing is, you will make mistakes, you will not see everything (detail) but continue. Reduce the number of pairs you trade, reduce the indicators, reduce the trendlines and every other thing... Your chart should be clear and easy on the eyes. I only look at 10 markets (the 7 majors and AUDNZD, CADCHF & EURGBP). I add the 3 crosses only because I want to have alternative for all the currencies excluding JPY. I don't use indicators (not saying it is bad but reduce it), I don't use trendline (because price is moves horizontally - unpopular opinion).
When you have just a few pairs, you are able to understand the moves better and you can free your brain from analysing so many pairs. Just imagine using indicators, lines upon lines, and the market changes form... now you need to start all over again your analysis on all your multiple markets, looking at so many things. Trust me, you are bound to miss the obvious details not to talk of the hidden ones and its a lot of work. I am sure you must have experienced it.
I am still very bullish on EURUSD and right now, I am not looking for an entry, I am waiting for a break of the 4H high then I will look for an entry which I will share on my page.
If you would like to see it, all you need to do is click on follow.
I will also link my previous analysis on EURUSD, AUDNZD, USDJPY
Stay tuned for more.
BR.
David
USDJPY is predicted to be bullishLooking at the movement of the USDJPY pair on the H4 TF, we can both see that the market is bullish and may make a price correction or retest to the price of 115,865 and continue its rise until it hits a strong resistance area or can even create a new resistance point.
We continue to monitor this market, and monitor it more often in the New York trading session.