Daily is winding up to an inflection point, while the weekly is getting close as well. I'm favoring the bearish break; but there is a chance for a bullish reversal- so time will tell. What I can say is that we're approaching a conclusive point in time that will send price with signifcant momentum in either direction. When I look for an inflection point I watch for...
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM Core PCE prices in the US, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.2% from the previous month in December of 2023, aligned with market estimates, and picking up slightly from the 0.1% increase in November. From the previous year, Core PCE prices edged 2.9% higher, undershooting market estimates of 3% to mark the lowest reading since...
On the FRED:UNRATE dataset, we can see that since 1953, every time the unemployment rate make a significant move above the 24 months SMA, with the sole exception of October '67, we saw a large spike in unemployment allong with a recession. Currently, FRED:UNRATE rose above the 24 months SMA in August 2023 and has been stochastically moving higher ever...
Weekly trend-line stretching back to November 2022, is being tested around the level of 5,000 which is also a "psychological barrier" for price action to proceed going higher. A re-test of the breakout above the 4,800 level is expected in the near-term.
Macro Monday 31 U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index This Index is compiled from a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas to assess the health of manufacturing activity in the state of Texas. It provides insight into factors such as production, employment, orders, and prices, offering a snapshot of economic conditions in the region. ...
The potential for a stronger dollar looms ahead, driven by the robustness of the US economy, which enables Federal Reserve officials to pursue a more gradual reduction in interest rates compared to other major central banks. Despite the Federal Reserve's assertive approach to raising interest rates, the US economy has demonstrated resilience, with inflation...
USA economy expected to get hit now and DJIA reaches 161.8% target for wave 3.
"The Fed sees no recession until at leat 2027 and a very smooth landing" They are either ignoring blatant economic indicators Or straight out lying to the public, and the media. As this chart shows. When Housing starts go down and unemployment starts spiking a recession almost immediately follows . If I can see that with no economics background, no MBA, or...
At the beginning of the year I already showed my idea about the upside potential of the US dollar (see chart below), and today I can only confirm what I said earlier. If from a technical point of view, my idea continues to be bearish on stocks markets, these considerations of mine could also have a logical sense and the scenario shown on chart could really...
Big Move incoming for Dow Jones Industrial Average. AMEX:DJIA has created Triangle's Apex approaching the end . Note that this is a Neutral Pattern, it can go each ways ; Bearish and Bullish. (depending on TVC:DXY , Geo-Politics & Macro Economics conditions) For now, it's better to observe and stay sharp and await for further confirmations. Nothing is clear...
The U.S. dollar has dominated global trade and capital flows over many decades. However, many nations are looking for alternatives to the greenback to reduce their dependence on the United States. This graphic catalogs the rise of the U.S. dollar as the dominant international reserve currency, and the recent efforts by various nations to de-dollarize and reduce...
As you can see from the Monthly Chart, U.S. Case Shiller Home Price Index could experience an interesting price contraction in short-medium term, could this also be a clear sign of a potential economic contraction, recession? If this happens, we shouldn't be surprised, the Fed is doing everything to fight inflation in the United States... Trade with care! 👍...
Rate hike will continue as Jerome has no way out now. 50 basis points is my projection. Experts cannot see any concrete signs that economy is under control, in which they are right. Wall St banker's narrative are switching from soft landing, to crash landing. US money supply has shrinked while yield curve remain heavily inverted. Uh ohh. Congress voted to end...
It would be awesome if TradingView offered a candlestick chart for CPI but considering its only updated once per month, maybe the line graph/chart is the best option (not sure how that works). As for the data available to me, I've done a best effort markup using the science of Elliott Wave Theory. Considering the fluctuations seen on the M(onthly) chart, I believe...
FOMC's Williams speech did not do much, as he was echoing what Jerome Powell already said 2 days ago. Rate hikes to resume, but at slower pace. Williams mentioned that inflation rate in the US should cool off to 3% this year, now at 6.5%. That's 50% lower. Question is, how much more rate hike is required to push inflation down by 50%? Will that be somehow somewhat...
In recent weeks, the bond market has been sending a strong signal to the Federal Reserve: it may be making a serious mistake. The yield curve, which measures the difference in interest rates between short-term and long-term bonds, is currently more inverted than it has been since the early 1980s. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates are...
Going parabolic!! 40 years inflation high Now we go to all time inflation high Sell before its late (((Dont fight the FED)))
The answer is DEBT Real GDP (Green) US Public Debt(yellow). Look at how aggressively debt has grown from 1970 till today. Just to bring this a bit closer home. It’s like constantly getting yourself in financial trouble yet the bank keeps giving you more and more credit. If the government was an individual, it’s credit score would be less than 500. And even...