Nasdaq 100 4H — Bulls Hold the RangeNasdaq 100 4H — Bulls Hold the Range, But 30,000 Remains the Key Breakout Level
Market View
Nasdaq 100 is currently trading around the 29,800–29,900 area on the 4H chart. After a strong rally from the April low near 23,000, the index pushed aggressively higher and reached the 30,500–31,000 region before entering a consolidation phase.
The broader structure still remains constructive, but the latest price action shows that the market is no longer moving in a clean one-way uptrend. Instead, the Nasdaq 100 has been moving sideways between the 29,000 support area and the 30,500 resistance zone.
Right now, the index is testing the upper side of this short-term range again. If buyers can reclaim 30,000 and break above the recent resistance zone, bullish momentum may return. If not, price may continue to rotate inside the current consolidation structure.
Key Areas
From a market structure perspective, the Nasdaq 100 remains in a bullish structure overall, but the short-term trend is currently range-bound.
The strong recovery from the 23,000 area created a clear bullish impulse, with price forming higher highs and higher lows through April and May. However, after reaching the 30,500–31,000 zone, the index started to lose momentum and entered a choppy consolidation phase.
The first key resistance zone is 30,000–30,200. This is the immediate area buyers need to reclaim to improve short-term momentum.
Above that, the next important resistance zone is 30,500–31,000. This is the recent upper range, and a breakout above this area would confirm stronger bullish continuation.
If the index breaks above 31,000 with strength, the next upside target could be 31,500–32,000.
On the downside, the nearest key support zone is 29,300–29,000. This area has been defended several times recently and remains important for keeping the current range structure alive.
Below that, 28,500–28,200 becomes the next major support zone. If this area fails, the index may enter a deeper correction toward 27,500–27,000.
Forward Outlook
For the bullish scenario, the Nasdaq 100 needs to hold above 29,300–29,000 and break above 30,000–30,200 with confirmation. If buyers manage to do that, the index may retest 30,500–31,000.
A clean breakout above 31,000 would suggest that the consolidation phase is ending, and price may extend toward 31,500–32,000.
For the bearish scenario, if the Nasdaq 100 fails to hold above 29,000, short-term selling pressure may return. In that case, price could move back toward 28,500–28,200.
A clean break below 28,200 would weaken the current bullish structure and may open the door for a deeper pullback toward 27,500–27,000.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is currently neutral to cautiously bullish.
The broader trend still favors buyers, but the index needs to break above 30,000–30,200 before bullish momentum becomes more convincing. Until then, the Nasdaq 100 may continue to trade inside a consolidation range.
Above 30,200, recovery momentum may improve.
Above 31,000, bullish continuation may strengthen.
Below 29,000, short-term correction risk may increase.
Please share your view below:
Will the Nasdaq 100 break above 30,200 and retest the 31,000 resistance zone? Or will sellers defend the upper range again and push the index back toward 29,000? Dow Jones Industrial Average — Strong Bullish TrendDow Jones Industrial Average — Strong Bullish Trend, But Price Is Now Testing an Extended Upper Zone
1. Market Overview
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is showing a strong bullish move on the 4H chart. After recovering from the lower area near 45,000–46,000, the index has continued to climb aggressively and is now trading around the 53,000 zone.
The recent price action shows clear buyer dominance. Each pullback has been relatively shallow, and the index has continued to push into new highs. However, because price is now extended near the upper range, traders should also be aware of possible short-term profit-taking.
The key question now is whether the Dow can hold above the breakout structure and continue higher, or whether the market needs a pullback before the next upside attempt.
2. Market Structure
From a market structure perspective, the Dow Jones remains in a strong bullish structure.
Price has been forming a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows, especially after the breakout above the 50,000 psychological area. The latest rally toward 53,000 confirms that buyers are still in control.
That said, the move is now approaching an extended zone. This does not mean the trend is bearish, but it does mean that short-term upside may become more sensitive to profit-taking or resistance reactions.
As long as the index holds above the previous breakout and demand zones, the broader structure remains bullish.
3. Daily / 4H Multi-Timeframe View
On the 4H timeframe, momentum remains strong. The index has continued to push higher with limited downside follow-through, showing that buyers are still defending dips.
From a broader daily perspective, the structure also looks constructive. The index has recovered strongly from the previous correction and is now trading near new high territory. However, the daily chart may also be entering an overextended phase, meaning that a pullback would not necessarily damage the trend unless key support levels are broken.
In short, both the 4H and daily views still support the bullish bias, but the short-term risk of a corrective pullback is increasing near the highs.
4. Key Resistance
53,000–53,200
This is the immediate resistance zone. Price is currently testing this area, and short-term profit-taking may appear here.
53,500–54,000
If the Dow breaks above 53,200, this becomes the next upside target zone.
54,500–55,000
This is the next major psychological resistance area. A sustained move into this zone would confirm stronger bullish continuation.
5. Key Support
52,400–52,000
This is the nearest short-term support zone. Holding above this area would keep the immediate bullish structure intact.
51,600–51,200
This is the next important support zone. If price pulls back deeper, buyers may try to defend this area.
50,000–49,600
This is the major structural support zone. A clean break below this area would weaken the current bullish structure and suggest a broader correction.
6. Momentum & Volatility Check
Momentum is currently strong but slightly extended.
The recent rally has been powerful, with buyers continuing to push price higher after each pullback. This confirms strong upside momentum, but it also increases the possibility of short-term exhaustion near resistance.
Volatility has expanded during the rally, which is normal in strong trend conditions. However, if price starts to show rejection candles near 53,000–53,200, the index may enter a short-term consolidation or pullback phase before attempting another breakout.
7. Bullish Factors
The first bullish factor is the clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the 4H chart.
The second positive sign is that price has successfully held above previous breakout areas, especially after moving beyond 50,000.
The third factor is that every recent dip has been bought quickly, showing that buyers remain active and confident.
A confirmed breakout above 53,200 would be another strong bullish signal and could support a continuation move toward 54,000 and beyond.
8. Bearish Risks
The main bearish risk is that the index is now trading in an extended upper zone after a strong rally.
If buyers fail to push above 53,000–53,200, short-term profit-taking may appear. A break below 52,000 would weaken the immediate upside momentum, while a deeper move below 51,200 could suggest that a broader pullback is developing.
The trend is still bullish, but chasing price too aggressively near the highs may carry higher risk.
9. Bullish Scenario
If the Dow Jones holds above 52,400–52,000 and breaks above 53,000–53,200 with confirmation, buyers may push the index toward 53,500–54,000.
If momentum remains strong and price holds above 54,000, the next upside zone to watch would be 54,500–55,000.
A sustained move above 55,000 would confirm a stronger bullish continuation structure.
10. Bearish Scenario
If the Dow rejects from 53,000–53,200, short-term pullback pressure may increase.
A break below 52,000 could send price toward 51,600–51,200. If the index breaks below 51,200, the correction could extend toward 50,000–49,600.
A clean move below 50,000 would weaken the broader bullish structure and suggest that sellers are gaining more control.
11. Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is currently bullish but cautious near the highs.
The trend clearly favors buyers, but the index is now testing an extended resistance area. This means the market may need either a confirmed breakout or a healthy pullback before the next major move.
Above 53,200, bullish continuation may strengthen.
Below 52,000, short-term correction pressure may increase.
12. Trading Plan Style Summary
Plan:
* Above 53,200: bullish continuation may strengthen.
* Between 52,000 and 53,200: consolidation near the highs may continue.
* Below 52,000: short-term pullback risk may increase.
* Below 50,000: the broader bullish structure may weaken.
The key area to watch is 53,000–53,200. A confirmed breakout above this zone could open the way toward 54,000–55,000, while rejection may trigger a short-term pullback.
What do you think?
Will the Dow Jones break above 53,200 and continue toward 54,000–55,000? Or will sellers defend the upper resistance zone and push the index back toward 52,000?
Please share your view below. 
Short
This Rally Doesn’t Add UpIn April, we witnessed one of the most unprecedented bull runs of the last decade. The market rose more than 10% after a spectacular V-turn off a nine-month low. The March sell-off was fuelled by the shock of the U.S. operation in Iran and the so-called “AI bubble” narrative that circulated in the press since late 2025. March also closed below the 200-day moving average (200 DMA), a signal many view as the end of the bull market. Then, suddenly, everything changed. Even before the U.S. officially declared a ceasefire, the market made a V-turn and started to rally. As geopolitical tensions eased, the market gained momentum and ended April with a spectacular close at an all-time high. Anyone who bet against the market - which didn’t seem unreasonable - likely suffered severe losses.
So why would someone be bearish now? From a technical perspective, there isn’t much to argue in favour of a pullback. The only concern is the magnitude of the move (more than 10% in a month). It’s not completely unprecedented, but it is certainly rare. However, this alone is not enough for a bearish argument.
Top monthly SPX returns in the last 10 years
What is important is that the “COVID” runs were sparked by U.S. monetary easing - a massive liquidity injection that boosted equity prices. That’s not what we see today; in fact, it’s the opposite. As oil prices rose, so did inflation expectations, forcing the Fed and other central banks to revise their plans. In February, the market was pricing a more than 70% chance of an interest-rate cut by year end. Now those odds have fallen to around 10%, which effectively means the market expects rates to stay where they are.
“CME Fed watch” data, probability of the rate change by end of 2026. Large green area means market currently expects rate to stay the same over this year, a major shift from pre-war expectations
Interest rates play an important role in virtually all equity-valuation models. So we can say with some confidence that, all else equal, valuations should be lower than they were three months ago. That raises the question: what is justifying current market levels?
My take is that the recent market action is exploratory. The rally was driven largely by volatility contraction and short covering—but that component is now gone.
Uncertainty around the U.S.–Iran conflict remains high. Meanwhile, the oil futures curve reflects an assumption that current geopolitical risk premiums will fade, with prices drifting back toward sub-$80 levels over time. That assumption could unwind quickly if tensions re-escalate.
The market is now pricing too much certainty: a durable ceasefire, contained oil/inflation risk, resilient earnings, and no further Fed repricing. If any of those assumptions weaken, expect a strong pullback into the major value area formed from October through February. The “AI revolution” narrative that re-emerged as the market surged may prove true in the long run, but personally I don’t buy the rapid shift from “AI bubble” to “AI revolution.”
It is difficult to say when it might happen but I’d bet on something by the end of May. A practical way to express this view is with options (e.g. OTM put or bear put spread): you can define your risk and stay in the game even if the market decides to rally a bit more and squeeze bears further.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts. Please do your own analysis and adopt prudent risk management.
Short
BLMZ - bottom building or just warming up before a move?BLMZ continues to hold the key 0.14 support zone, where the market has built a tight accumulation base after completing the previous descending channel. Volatility compression, multiple retests of the horizontal level, and persistent lower wicks indicate active absorption by buyers. A rebound from 0.14 opens the way toward the first structural target at 0.50 - the liquidity zone of the previous range and a confirmed breakout above it unlocks the next target around 0.65, aligned with the upper imbalance area of the prior structure.
Company: BLMZ (Harrison Global Holdings) is a holding entity focused on distressed and developing assets, investing in undervalued businesses and restructuring opportunities.
Fundamentally , as of November 15, the company remains in a restructuring stage with low revenue, minimal liabilities, and attempts to stabilize operating expenses. As a typical microcap, the stock combines weak financials with high sensitivity to news, low float, and thin volumes. The balance sheet structure - low debt, ongoing corporate reboot, and occasional institutional interest - creates potential for sharp upside moves if a positive catalyst emerges.
As long as price stays above 0.14, the accumulation structure remains valid. A move above 0.18 pulls the range toward 0.30, and a full breakout of the upper boundary sets targets at 0.50 and 0.65. Losing 0.14 returns the stock to an extended sideways phase, though the current formation increasingly resembles pre-impulse positioning.
The chart may be whispering for now, but whispers often turn into sudden moves in the microcap world. NAS100 8H - real correction or just another dramatic rehearsal?NAS100 held the 24850–25000 demand zone with precision, forming a classic false break followed by a sharp recovery back into the rising channel. Volume expansion on the reversal, strong lower wicks, and sustained support at the dynamic trendline all signal that the medium-term bullish structure remains intact. The path toward 26300 inside the channel stays open, and a breakout above this level unlocks the next target at 27300 - the upper boundary of the current impulse.
The NAS100 index represents the core of the US tech sector, reflecting demand for IT, cloud infrastructure, AI technologies, communication platforms, and high-growth digital companies.
Fundamentally , the backdrop on November 15 strengthens the bullish case: the market continues to price in a softer Fed stance, bond yields are easing, major tech companies are raising guidance, and demand for AI-driven solutions remains stable. With inflation trending into a manageable range and expectations for improved credit conditions rising, liquidity is rotating into high-beta assets, providing structural support and limiting corrective depth. Strong margins, solid earnings and resilient tech demand continue to anchor the broader uptrend.
As long as price holds above 24850–25000, the bullish scenario remains active. A confirmed breakout above 26300 opens the way toward 27300. Any controlled pullback into 24850–25000 remains a buy zone within the prevailing trend.
NASDAQ likes to overact, but more often than not it’s simply warming up before the next performance. 
Long
Short
SPX:uptrend remains intact – consolidating for the next breakoutOn the 4-hour chart, the S&P 500 (SPX) continues to move firmly within its ascending channel , with the current range around 6,850–6,900 representing a healthy pause after a strong rally. The nearest support sits at 6,800, where buyers previously stepped in, while short-term resistance remains near 6,900.
From a news perspective, the rally is still being driven by tech and AI sectors , especially after the Amazon–OpenAI partnership deal , which reignited positive sentiment across the market. However, investors remain cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. ADP employment and ISM PMI data , which could influence the Fed’s next rate-cut decision.
Overall, the technical structure still supports an upward bias: SPX is consolidating between 6,800–6,900 before potentially breaking toward the 7,000-point zone , aligning with the upper boundary of the trend channel.
As long as the 6,800 support holds, the market retains room for another bullish leg in the sessions ahead, backed by renewed capital inflows into leading sectors. Long 
Nasdaq-100 (NDX) Weekly Chart 2025 Chart Context
This weekly timeframe analysis of the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) forms a key pillar in our 2025 macro analysis series. Following the breakout structure seen in TOTAL, TOTAL2, BTC.D, and US10Y, this chart utilizes 2 Fibonacci tools (1 trend-based extensions and 1 retracement) to project potential corrective and expansion scenarios.
Fibonacci Tools Used:
Fibonacci Retracement : Applies to the recent smaller swing to determine micro retracement zones and cluster supports.
0=20674 and 100=10504
Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension: Drawn using a three-leg structure (point A= 3993 to B=16724 to C10504) to forecast upside targets beyond ATH.
All take-profit (TP) levels: TP1 (~23,400), TP2 (~26,700), and TP3 (~30,344.49)—are located at confluence zones where Fibonacci levels from different tools align, reinforcing their validity and strength.
There is a 4TP above all the Visible TPs
Key price references:
0% retracement: ~20,674.71
Next Resistance ~23,400 (confluence of extensions and psychological resistance)
Projected TPs:
1TP=~23,400,
2TP=~26,700,
3TP=~30,344.49,
4TP=44000
Support/Resistance:
Red zone: ~16,700–18,300 (historical S/R and correction target and Fib Confluences)
Resistance zone: ~23,000–23,400 ,
22000(ATH area)
Key Technical Observations:
Fibonacci Retracement from ~20674 to ~15732 marks the initial corrective range.
Trend-Based Extensions forecast:
TP1 (~23,400): First breakout resistance
TP2 (~26,700): Medium-term expansion zone
TP3 (~30,344): Long-term target if macro tailwinds persist
Scenario Pathways:
Bullish Continuation: Breaks above ATH to reach TP2/TP3
Healthy Correction: Pullback to ~20,600 or deeper ~18,300 before resumption
Deep Correction: Revisits ~16,700 zone if macro environment deteriorates
Fundamental Context:
Tech Stocks & Economic Sentiment: NDX is often the first to move during liquidity expansions. Its performance signals risk-on behavior across global equity markets.
Rate Cuts in 2025: With anticipated Fed rate cuts, tech stocks are primed for inflows. Forward earnings valuations rise, justifying extended upside in high-beta tech.
AI Boom & Earnings Growth: Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward AI, cloud, and semiconductors—sectors expected to lead earnings surprises.
NDX Influence on Gold and Crypto
When NDX rallies:
Crypto: Risk appetite improves. Capital rotation flows into altcoins and layer-1 assets.
Bitcoin: Often sees parallel inflows, especially during strong tech rallies (e.g., 2020).
TOTAL & TOTAL3: Begin breakout patterns if NDX continues to surge.
Gold: May stall or correct as investors favor risk assets. However, gold still holds due to macro hedging and real yield pressures.
When NDX corrects:
Crypto: Volatility spikes. Altcoins bleed faster.
Bitcoin: Short-term dip but may decouple if viewed as digital gold.
Gold: Benefits from flight-to-safety behavior.
US10Y: Often reacts inversely to NDX moves—used for confirmation.
Search Highlights (2024–2025):
Institutions view NDX correction as signal to rotate into commodities (incl. gold).
Cross-market correlations show NDX peaks often precede crypto mini-rallies.
De-risking from NDX often triggers gold strength, especially in geopolitical or inflationary backdrops.
Bias & Strategy Implication
Primary Bias: Bullish
Expecting upside continuation to 26,700–30,000 zone
Multiple correction opportunities are present even during rally
Strategic Actions:
Monitor for correction to yellow/red zones for accumulation
Use NDX behavior as leading macro signal for crypto rotations
Watch resistance at 23,400 closely; breakout confirms trend extension
Time Horizon
Short-Term (1–2 months): Watch for breakout or correction to ~20,600–18,300
Mid-Term (3–6 months): Probable test of ~26,700
Long-Term (6–12 months): Potential expansion to ~30,344.49
Long 
NAS100 Technical Analysis Report - NASDAQ & US Market# NAS100 Technical Analysis: NASDAQ Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy
Executive Summary
Current Price: 23,415.0 (August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4)
Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish with Rate Cut Optimism
Primary Trend: Uptrend with consolidation characteristics
Key Catalyst: Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech signaling potential September rate cut
The NASDAQ-100 continues to demonstrate resilience following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish signals at Jackson Hole, with markets pricing in high probability of September rate cuts. The index benefits from renewed optimism in technology sectors and artificial intelligence themes, though elevated valuations warrant selective positioning.
Market Context & Fundamental Backdrop
Federal Reserve Policy Outlook
Following Powell's Jackson Hole speech, markets have significantly increased bets on a September rate cut. The Fed Chair indicated that "conditions may warrant" interest rate cuts, with the balance of risks to employment and inflation shifting. Current federal funds rate remains at 4.25%-4.50%, but CME FedWatch Tool shows high probability of cuts beginning in September 2025.
Economic Environment
The US economy has shown resilience despite policy uncertainties, with the dual mandate of the Fed becoming more balanced. Labor market data shows some "unusual" behavior that could become concerning, supporting the case for monetary policy adjustment.
Technology Sector Dynamics
The artificial intelligence boom remains robust, providing fundamental support for NASDAQ constituents. However, chipmaker volatility has created intermittent pressure on the index, requiring careful sector rotation analysis.
Market Performance Context
Recent trading sessions have shown volatility, with the NASDAQ experiencing both significant gains and pullbacks. The index closed at 21,449.29 in late August trading sessions, demonstrating the current consolidation phase around elevated levels.
Technical Analysis Framework
Japanese Candlestick Analysis
Weekly Pattern: Long-legged doji formation indicating indecision at current levels
Daily Pattern: Inside bar sequences suggesting consolidation before next major move
Intraday Patterns: Morning star and evening star formations frequent in 4H timeframe
Volume Analysis: Average volume during recent consolidation phase
Elliott Wave Analysis
Primary Wave Structure:
Major Degree: Wave 5 of secular bull market potentially in final stages
Intermediate Degree: Subwave 5 of major Wave 5 showing extension characteristics
Minor Degree: Currently in subwave 4 correction within intermediate Wave 5
Wave Count Analysis:
Impulse Wave: Completed from 2020 lows to recent highs
Corrective Phase: Current consolidation representing Wave 4 of larger structure
Target Projection: Wave 5 completion targeting 25,000-26,000 zone
Critical Levels: Wave 4 support at 22,800-23,200 maintains bullish count
Harmonic Pattern Recognition
Active Harmonic Structures:
Bullish Cypher Pattern: Potential completion at 22,900-23,100 zone
ABCD Extension: Current formation targeting 24,200-24,500
Potential Bearish Gartley: Formation risk above 24,800 indicating reversal
Fibonacci Confluence Analysis:
- 61.8% retracement of major swing: 23,150
- 50% retracement level: 23,400 (current area of interest)
- 38.2% retracement: 23,650
- 1.618 extension target: 24,300-24,500
Wyckoff Method Analysis
Phase Assessment: Accumulation Phase D - Testing resistance
Market Structure:
- Sign of Strength (SOS) evident on rate cut optimism
- Last Point of Support (LPS) established around 23,000
- Backup to Edge of Creek (BUE) tests showing institutional accumulation
- Spring action potentially completed in August lows
Composite Operator Activity: Evidence of large player accumulation during recent weakness
W.D. Gann Technical Analysis
# Square of 9 Application
Current Position: 23,415.0 = 152.98° on the Gann wheel
Critical Resistance Levels:
- 23,409 (153°) - immediate geometric resistance
- 23,716 (154°) - intermediate resistance zone
- 24,025 (155°) - major resistance confluence
Key Support Levels:
- 23,104 (152°) - immediate geometric support
- 22,801 (151°) - strong support zone
- 22,500 (150°) - major psychological and geometric support
# Time Theory Application
Critical Time Cycles:
- September 3-6: 90-degree time angle from recent high
- September 21: Autumn equinox - natural market turning point
- October 12-15: 144-degree time cycle completion
- November 2-8: 180-degree cycle from major low
# Price and Time Squaring Analysis
Square Root of Price: √23,415.0 = 152.98
Next Significant Square Levels:
- 154² = 23,716 (key resistance zone)
- 155² = 24,025 (intermediate target)
- 156² = 24,336 (extended resistance)
- 160² = 25,600 (long-term target)
Support Square Levels:
- 152² = 23,104 (immediate support)
- 151² = 22,801 (strong support)
- 150² = 22,500 (major support)
# Gann Angle Analysis
Primary Angles from Major Low:
- 1x1 Angle: Providing dynamic support around 23,200
- 2x1 Angle: Resistance trend line near 23,800
- 1x2 Angle: Long-term support at 22,600
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis
Cloud Configuration:
Tenkan-sen (9): 23,425 - Price slightly below, neutral bias
Kijun-sen (26): 23,380 - Price above, mild bullish confirmation
Senkou Span A: 23,402 (cloud top)
Senkou Span B: 23,150 (cloud bottom)
Chikou Span: Above price action 26 periods ago (bullish)
Assessment: Price trading at cloud top resistance with mixed signals requiring breakout confirmation for directional clarity.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Indicator Analysis
5-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus)
RSI(14): 51.3 - Neutral territory with slight bullish bias
VWAP: 23,408 - Price oscillating around VWAP equilibrium
Bollinger Bands: Middle band at 23,410, bands contracting (low volatility environment)
Stochastic: 48.2 in neutral zone
Volume: Below average, typical for consolidation phase
Key Scalping Levels:
Micro Resistance: 23,435, 23,460, 23,485
Micro Support: 23,390, 23,365, 23,340
15-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus)
MACD: Histogram near zero line, momentum neutral
Williams %R: -52% indicating no extreme conditions
Moving Averages: EMA(20) converging with SMA(20) around 23,400
Volume Profile: High volume node at 23,380-23,430
Scalping Strategy Levels:
Long Bias Zone: 23,385-23,405
Short Bias Zone: 23,445-23,465
Breakout Alerts: Above 23,480 (bullish) / Below 23,360 (bearish)
1-Hour Chart (Day Trading)
RSI(14): 54.7 - Slight bullish momentum without overbought conditions
VWAP: 23,395 providing dynamic support
ADX(14): 28.3 indicating moderate trend strength
Parabolic SAR: Below price at 23,350 (bullish signal)
Day Trading Framework:
Primary Resistance: 23,500-23,550
Secondary Resistance: 23,650-23,700
Primary Support: 23,250-23,300
Secondary Support: 23,100-23,150
4-Hour Chart (Swing Trading)
RSI(14): 58.9 in bullish territory but not overbought
MACD: Positive momentum with slight bullish divergence forming
Bollinger Bands: Price near upper band, expansion needed for continuation
Ichimoku: Price at cloud resistance requiring break for bullish confirmation
Swing Trading Levels:
Key Resistance Zone: 23,700-23,800
Breakout Target: 24,000-24,200 on sustained break
Support Structure: 23,200-23,300
Stop Loss Consideration: Below 23,100 invalidates bullish structure
Daily Chart (Position Trading)
RSI(14): 61.4 showing healthy bullish momentum
MACD: Positive with momentum building
Volume: Consolidation pattern with average participation
Moving Averages: All major MAs (20, 50, 100, 200) aligned bullishly
Position Trading Analysis:
Triangle Pattern: Ascending triangle formation approaching apex
Breakout Targets: 24,500-25,000 on upside resolution
Support Defense: 23,000-23,200 critical for trend continuation
Time Factor: Resolution expected within 2-3 weeks
Weekly Chart (Long-term Analysis)
RSI(14): 65.8 approaching overbought but sustainable
MACD: Strong positive momentum with room for extension
Long-term Trend: Powerful uptrend since 2020 lows intact
Major Resistance: 25,000-25,500 psychological zone
Monthly Chart (Strategic View)
RSI(14): 71.2 significantly overbought (caution warranted)
Long-term Structure: Multi-year cup and handle completion
Secular Target: 28,000-30,000 based on pattern measurement
Major Support: 20,000-21,000 long-term trend support
Comprehensive Support and Resistance Analysis
Primary Support Structure
1. 23,380-23,420: Kijun-sen and VWAP confluence (immediate)
2. 23,300-23,350: Previous consolidation zone with volume
3. 23,200-23,250: Triangle support and trend line confluence
4. 23,100-23,150: Cloud bottom and Fibonacci support
5. 23,000-23,050: Major psychological level and institutional interest
6. 22,800-22,900: Elliott Wave 4 support and harmonic completion
7. 22,500-22,600: Extended support and Gann square level
Primary Resistance Structure
1. 23,450-23,480: Immediate intraday resistance
2. 23,550-23,600: Short-term resistance and previous reaction high
3. 23,700-23,750: Triangle resistance and Gann confluence
4. 23,900-24,000: Intermediate resistance and psychological level
5. 24,200-24,300: Major resistance zone and measured targets
6. 24,500-24,700: Extended targets and harmonic projections
7. 25,000-25,200: Major psychological resistance and long-term targets
Weekly Trading Strategy (September 2-6, 2025)
Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - US Markets Closed)
Market Environment: Limited trading due to US holiday
Strategy Focus: Pre-positioning for Tuesday's resumed activity
International Markets: Monitor for any overnight developments
Pre-Market Analysis:
Gap Scenarios: Assess any gap formation from Friday's close
Global Sentiment: Monitor Asian and European markets for cues
News Flow: Fed speakers or economic data releases
Tuesday, September 3, 2025
Market Environment: Resumption of full trading after holiday
Primary Strategy: Range trading with breakout preparation
Volatility Expectation: Above average due to holiday catch-up
Intraday Trading Strategy:
Opening Range: 23,350-23,480 expected
Long Setup: 23,380-23,400
- Stop Loss: 23,350
- Target 1: 23,450 (1:2 R/R)
- Target 2: 23,500 (1:3.5 R/R)
Short Setup: 23,460-23,480
- Stop Loss: 23,510
- Target 1: 23,400 (1:1.2 R/R)
- Target 2: 23,350 (1:2.2 R/R)
Key Levels to Watch:
Breakout Above: 23,500 targets 23,600-23,650
Breakdown Below: 23,320 targets 23,250-23,200
Wednesday, September 4, 2025
Market Environment: Mid-week momentum potential
Primary Strategy: Trend following with momentum confirmation
Focus: Economic data and Fed speakers impact
Trading Approach:
Bullish Scenario: Break above 23,500 with volume
- Entry: 23,510-23,530
- Stop: 23,450
- Targets: 23,600, 23,700, 23,800
Bearish Scenario: Break below 23,300 with momentum
- Entry: 23,290-23,270
- Stop: 23,330
- Targets: 23,200, 23,100, 23,000
Risk Management: Reduce position sizes by 30% if range-bound continues
Thursday, September 5, 2025
Market Environment: Potential high-volatility day
Primary Strategy: Breakout trading with volume confirmation
Critical Factor: Triangle pattern resolution expected
Triangle Breakout Strategy:
Upside Breakout: Above 23,650
- Volume Requirement: 150% of 20-day average
- Initial Target: 23,800-23,850
- Extended Target: 24,000-24,200
- Stop Loss: 23,550
Downside Breakdown: Below 23,200
- Volume Requirement: 130% of 20-day average
- Initial Target: 23,000-22,950
- Extended Target: 22,800-22,700
- Stop Loss: 23,280
Position Management:
- Scale into positions on confirmed breakouts
- Trail stops aggressively after first target achieved
- Monitor sector rotation for continuation signals
Friday, September 6, 2025
Market Environment: Week-end positioning and profit-taking
Primary Strategy: Consolidation trading and weekly close analysis
Focus: Jobs data potential and weekly settlement
End-of-Week Strategy:
Weekly Close Bullish: Above 23,500 sets up next week advance
Weekly Close Neutral: 23,300-23,500 maintains current pattern
Weekly Close Bearish: Below 23,300 suggests pattern failure
Day Trading Approach:
Morning Session: Follow Thursday's breakout direction
Midday: Range trading within established boundaries
Final Hour: Position adjustments for weekend risk
Non-Farm Payrolls Impact:
Strong Data: Could delay Fed cuts, potential market negative
Weak Data: Supports Fed cut narrative, likely market positive
In-Line Data: Maintains current rate cut expectations
Advanced Risk Management Framework
Position Sizing Matrix
Risk Allocation by Timeframe:
5M Scalping: 0.25-0.5% of capital per trade
15M Scalping: 0.5-0.75% of capital per trade
1H Day Trading: 1-1.5% of capital per trade
4H Swing Trading: 1.5-2.5% of capital per trade
Daily Position Trading: 2.5-3.5% of capital per trade
Dynamic Stop Loss Framework
Volatility-Adjusted Stops:
Low Volatility (<1% ATR): Stops at 0.75% of entry
Medium Volatility (1-2% ATR): Stops at 1.25% of entry
High Volatility (>2% ATR): Stops at 2% of entry
Timeframe-Specific Stops:
5-Minute Charts: 40-60 points maximum
15-Minute Charts: 80-120 points maximum
1-Hour Charts: 150-250 points maximum
4-Hour Charts: 300-450 points maximum
Daily Charts: 600-900 points maximum
Profit-Taking Methodology
Systematic Profit Realization:
First Target (40%): 1:1.5 Risk/Reward ratio
Second Target (35%): 1:2.5 Risk/Reward ratio
Third Target (25%): 1:4+ Risk/Reward ratio
Trailing Implementation: After second target achievement
Maximum Exposure Limits
Daily Risk Limits:
Total Portfolio: Maximum 5% risk across all positions
Single Strategy: Maximum 3% risk concentration
Sector Concentration: Maximum 40% in tech-related trades
Emergency Stop: -2% daily account drawdown triggers cessation
Geopolitical and Economic Risk Assessment
Federal Reserve Policy Impact
September FOMC Meeting: High probability of 25bp rate cut based on recent communications
Policy Path: Markets pricing 2-3 cuts through end of 2025
Communication Risk: Any hawkish surprises could trigger sharp correction
Independence Concerns: Political pressure on Fed policy creates uncertainty
Economic Data Dependencies
Labor Market: "Unusual" behavior noted by Powell requires monitoring
Inflation Trends: Sticky services inflation remains concern
GDP Growth: Resilience continues but tariff impacts uncertain
Consumer Spending: Holiday season performance critical for Q4
Geopolitical Considerations
Trade Policy: Tariff implementation timeline and magnitude
China Relations: Technology sector exposure to policy changes
Energy Security: Minimal direct impact on NASDAQ constituents
Dollar Dynamics: Strength/weakness affecting multinational earnings
Technology Sector Risks
AI Regulation: Potential oversight affecting major constituents
Semiconductor Cycle: Global chip demand and supply chain risks
Cybersecurity: Increasing threat landscape affecting valuations
Competition: Antitrust scrutiny on major tech platforms
Sectoral Analysis and Rotation Themes
NASDAQ 100 Sector Breakdown
Technology (45%): Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Meta driving performance
Communication Services (15%): Google, Netflix, streaming platforms
Consumer Discretionary (12%): Amazon, Tesla leading components
Healthcare (8%): Biotech and medical device innovation
Other Sectors (20%): Diversified exposure across growth themes
Current Outperformers
1. Artificial Intelligence: NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google benefiting from AI boom
2. Cloud Computing: Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure expansion
3. Digital Advertising: Meta, Google capturing online spending shift
4. Electric Vehicles: Tesla maintaining technological leadership
Underperforming Areas
1. Traditional Software: Legacy platforms facing cloud migration pressure
2. Hardware Manufacturers: Margin pressure from supply chain costs
3. Streaming Services: Subscriber growth saturation concerns
4. Biotech: Regulatory approval timelines creating uncertainty
Rotation Indicators
Growth vs Value: Quality growth at reasonable prices favored
Large Cap vs Small Cap: Mega-cap technology leadership maintained
Secular vs Cyclical: Long-term secular themes outperforming cycles
Advanced Pattern Recognition and Trading Setups
Ichimoku-Based Strategies
Cloud Breakout Setup:
Bullish Signal: Price above cloud with Tenkan above Kijun
Entry: Break above 23,450 with volume confirmation
Stop: Below cloud at 23,150
Target: Measured move to 24,200-24,500
Kijun-sen Bounce:
Setup: Price return to Kijun-sen (23,380) with support
Entry: Bounce confirmation above 23,400
Stop: Below 23,350
Target: Previous high resistance at 23,650
Gann-Based Trading Approaches
Square of 9 Methodology:
Long Trades: Buy at 152° (23,104) targeting 154° (23,716)
Short Trades: Sell at 154° (23,716) targeting 152° (23,104)
Breakout Trades: Above 154° targets 155° (24,025)
Time Cycle Trading:
Major Turns: September 21 equinox reversal window
Minor Cycles: 90-degree angles creating intraweek pivots
Momentum Confirmation: Volume spikes during cycle completions
Wyckoff Accumulation/Distribution
Phase D Characteristics:
Testing Supply: Price probing resistance without heavy volume
Institutional Activity: Large lot accumulation on weakness
Markup Preparation: Successful tests lead to significant advances
Distribution Warning Signs:
Climactic Volume: Heavy selling on any approach to 25,000
Weakness Signs: Unable to hold gains on good news
Phase A Risk: Sharp reversal from resistance levels
Market Microstructure and Execution Considerations
High-Frequency Trading Impact
Algorithm Activity Zones:
23,000 Level: Heavy HFT support algorithm activity
23,500 Level: Resistance algorithm concentration
24,000 Level: Major psychological algorithm participation
Optimal Execution Windows:
9:30-10:00 EST: Maximum volatility and opportunity
11:00-11:30 EST: Mid-morning momentum continuation
14:30-15:00 EST: European close overlap activity
15:30-16:00 EST: Final hour positioning
Liquidity Considerations
High Liquidity Zones: 23,300-23,500 range with tight spreads
Reduced Liquidity: Above 24,000 and below 23,000 requiring careful sizing
After-Hours Trading: Limited liquidity requiring smaller position sizes
Order Flow Analysis
Institutional Patterns:
Accumulation: Evidence of large block buying 23,200-23,400
Distribution Zones: Monitor for heavy selling above 23,700
Momentum Algorithms: Active participation on breakout moves
Technology Integration and Trading Tools
Essential Trading Platforms
1. TradingView: Comprehensive charting with advanced indicators
2. Think or Swim: Professional-grade execution and analysis
3. Interactive Brokers: Direct market access and low commissions
4. Bloomberg Terminal: Institutional-grade data and news flow
Critical Alert Systems
Price-Based Alerts:
- Triangle breakout: 23,650 (bullish) / 23,200 (bearish)
- Psychological levels: 23,500, 24,000, 24,500
- Gann squares: 23,104, 23,716, 24,025
Volume-Based Alerts:
- Unusual volume spikes (>200% of 20-day average)
- Block trade notifications (>$10M trades)
- Dark pool activity indicators
News and Event Alerts:
- Fed speaker comments and policy communications
- Economic data releases (employment, inflation, GDP)
- Earnings announcements from major NASDAQ constituents
- Geopolitical developments affecting technology sector
Advanced Analysis Tools
Options Flow: Monitor unusual options activity for directional clues
Futures Positioning: Track institutional positioning in NQ futures
Sector Rotation: Monitor NASDAQ sector ETF performance relative to index
International Correlation: Track correlation with technology indices globally
Seasonal and Calendar Considerations
September Seasonality
Historical data shows September as traditionally weak month for equities, though technology sectors often show resilience. Current rate cut optimism may override seasonal weakness.
Federal Reserve Calendar
September 17-18: FOMC Meeting (high probability of rate cut)
October 29-30: Next FOMC Meeting
December 17-18: Final 2025 FOMC Meeting
Earnings Season Timeline
Q3 2025 Reporting: October-November period critical for NASDAQ constituents
Key Companies: Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google, Amazon reporting impact
Guidance Focus: AI spending, cloud growth, consumer demand trends
Holiday Impact Calendar
Labor Day (Sep 2): US markets closed
Columbus Day (Oct 14): Bond markets closed, equities open
Thanksgiving (Nov 27-28): Shortened trading sessions
Christmas/New Year: Year-end positioning effects
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
The NASDAQ-100 stands at a critical inflection point, benefiting from Fed Chair Powell's dovish pivot while facing elevated valuation concerns and seasonal headwinds. The technical picture presents a compelling consolidation pattern with multiple breakout scenarios, requiring careful risk management and tactical positioning.
Key Investment Themes for September:
1. Fed Policy Pivot: Rate cut cycle beginning supports risk assets and growth stocks
2. AI Revolution Continuation: Technology leadership themes remain intact
3. Triangle Resolution: Current consolidation pattern approaching decision point
4. Seasonal Navigation: September weakness vs. Fed optimism dynamic
Tactical Trading Priorities:
Range Trading: Capitalize on 23,300-23,650 range until breakout
Breakout Preparation: Position for triangle resolution with volume confirmation
Risk Management: Elevated levels require disciplined position sizing
Sector Selection: Focus on AI beneficiaries and Fed-sensitive growth names
Medium-Term Outlook (1-3 Months):
The combination of Fed policy accommodation, robust AI/technology themes, and strong corporate fundamentals provides a constructive backdrop for NASDAQ advancement. Technical analysis suggests potential for significant upside toward 24,500-25,000 on successful breakout, though any hawkish Fed surprise or geopolitical shock could trigger sharp corrections.
Risk Scenario Analysis:
Bull Case: Fed cuts + AI momentum = targets 25,000-26,000
Base Case: Consolidation 23,000-24,000 through October
Bear Case: Fed disappointment + valuation concerns = correction to 21,500-22,000
Strategic Positioning Recommendations:
1. Maintain tactical long bias with disciplined risk management
2. Focus on high-quality technology leaders with AI exposure
3. Prepare for increased volatility around Fed meetings and earnings
4. Monitor triangle pattern resolution for significant directional moves
The multi-timeframe technical analysis framework presented provides robust tools for navigating the current market environment. Success will depend on maintaining discipline around the identified support/resistance levels while adapting to the evolving Fed policy landscape and technology sector dynamics.
Traders should remain flexible and prepared for both continuation and reversal scenarios, with particular attention to volume confirmation on any major breakout attempts. The convergence of technical patterns, fundamental catalysts, and seasonal factors creates a complex but opportunity-rich environment for skilled practitioners.
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*This comprehensive analysis integrates multiple technical methodologies with current market fundamentals. All trading recommendations should be implemented within individual risk tolerance parameters and adapted to evolving market conditions. The technology-focused nature of the NASDAQ requires particular attention to sector-specific developments and regulatory considerations.*
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For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
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Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor. Short 
Long
Short 
S&P: Weekly Recap and OutlookLast week, the market opened with a gap up that was quickly filled, after which price hovered near the previous all-time high. Bolstered by new economic data, which delivered no negative surprises, bulls pushed the price out of the trading range, establishing a new all-time high.
While this is undoubtedly a positive development that reinforces the bullish thesis, a few warning signs warrant closer attention:
1. Low Breakout Volume: The breakout occurred on significantly low volume. While volume is less critical in indices and ETFs compared to individual stocks, observing below-average volume during such an important event raises concerns about the breakout’s sustainability.
2. Relative Weakness in the Tech Sector (XLK): This deviation signals hesitancy among growth investors, which could potentially ripple through to other market participants.
Additionally, concerns highlighted in my previous review remain unresolved and continue to be relevant.
At this stage, there is no concrete evidence of a sentiment shift or technical signals pointing to a broad trend reversal. However, there is a growing impression that the rally may be nearing temporary exhaustion, which could lead to a significant pullback.
Key Focus for the Upcoming Week
Investors will be closely watching the employment data, which has already hinted at labor market weakness. If new data further support this trend, it could heighten bearish sentiment.
Price action this week will likely provide important clues:
• Bullish Confirmation: If the breakout is followed by a swift continuation, this will confirm buyers’ conviction and overall market strength.
• Bearish Signals: Conversely, if the price pulls back below 600 or oscillates indecisively around this level, it may signal uncertainty among buyers, creating an opportunity for short sellers to capitalize.
S&P 500 Weekly Recap: A Struggle to RecoverLast week’s market action reflected the ongoing struggle for recovery after the previous week’s sell-off. The market opened cautiously, with buyers stepping in to regain ground lost during the prior downturn. Despite early hesitation, bulls managed to push prices higher, eventually filling the gap created by the earlier sell-off. However, this recovery faced significant resistance from sellers, resulting in minimal upward progression in daily closes.
Strength in the recovery was primarily driven by Financials (XLF), which set a new all-time high. Other sectors, however, remained subdued, aligning with the broader market's hesitant tone. While this selectivity isn’t necessarily negative on its own, when combined with other signals, it may indicate growing risk aversion and a lack of conviction among market participants.
It is also worth zooming into the lower timeframes.
The 584 level provided key support but was retested multiple times during the week, which is not a good sign for buyers. Persistent tests of support typically indicate weakening demand, and bulls should be cautious of this development. Additionally, it was remarkable to observe how the rally went precisely to the Value Area Low ( 596 ) of the previous consolidation zone. Buyers should note that the market failed to push higher and close within the value area, signaling potential exhaustion of the current recovery attempt.
The immediate objective for the bulls is to push above 596 , reclaiming the previous value area, which would provide stronger validation for the recovery. On the other hand, bears will be focused on taking down the 584 level, where there is likely big liquidity pool.
Next week is rich in terms of key events.
The FOMC minutes are scheduled for release on Tuesday, preceded by significant economic data on Wednesday. These releases will be closely scrutinized as investors remain deeply concerned about the possibility of a recession. Any signals pointing toward a slowing economy could spark fear and trigger increased volatility.
While the long-term market trend remains intact, the warning signs outlined above suggest that investors should hold off on adding to their positions for the time being.
P.S. ES futures are currently rising in the pre-market session. If this momentum doesn't transform into a sell-off after the bell, it will certainly be a positive sign for the buyers. S&P Weekly Recap: Rally Falters Amid Lack of ConvictionLast week’s market action delivered a reversal in sentiment, highlighting the fragility of the rally that had persisted since the so-called "Trump rally." The week began slowly, with the market testing buyers’ conviction to push prices higher. After confirming a lack of such conviction, sellers stepped in, driving prices sharply lower. As suggested in my previous recap, 585 (VAH) provided temporary support, and the week closed near this critical level.
Interestingly, most major sectors participated in the downward move, aligning with the broader market trend. However, XLF (Financials) stood out as the exception, managing to post gains despite the sell-off. This divergence suggests that there is still buying interest, with money continuing to flow selectively into the market.
The immediate objective for the bulls is to hold 585 and attempt to fill Friday’s gap. Failure to do so, with the price returning to the 568-585 range , would indicate that the rally is nearing exhaustion. While this would not immediately signal a transition into a bear market, it would mark a notable shift in sentiment. The 568 level remains critical for buyers; as long as it holds, the broader uptrend stays intact, and bulls maintain the upper hand. Meaning that I keep "bullish" outlook.
This week, the market’s attention will be on NVIDIA's earnings on Wednesday. While the previous report didn’t cause much volatility, traders will be closely watching for any surprises that could influence market momentum.
Long 
S&P Soars on Election Results in a Stunning RallyLast week's market movements provided a strong example of how impactful certain events can be on sentiment and momentum. In the last market recap, I highlighted uptrend continuation as the most likely scenario. However, at the start of the week, there was absolutely nothing on the chart suggesting a V-shape pivot.
Week started on a weak note, but Tuesday marked a shift, as buying interest began to surface, quickly escalating into a stunning overnight gap once preliminary election results emerged. Essentially, the election results had a similar impact on the market as an earnings report can have on a company's stock price. This influx of optimism solidified bulls' control over the market, reinforcing a strong weekly uptrend.
The buying wasn’t limited to a few sectors; instead, it was widespread, touching every major sector by the week’s end. Such broad-based buying underscores that the rally is not sector-specific but part of a larger, systemic movement. While we’re seeing robust upward momentum, it’s worth noting that both weekly and daily RSI levels are approaching overbought territory. However, as often observed in strong uptrends, prices can comfortably persist in the overbought zone. With no clear resistance above, I would strongly discourage trying to catch the top.
Important levels to watch include 585 (VAH) , which is key in the event of a potential retest of the last consolidation zone, and 568 (major weekly low) , which buyers must protect to maintain control.
P.S. If you missed this insane rally, don’t blame yourself too much. Had the election outcome been different, it’s easy to imagine the market would have plunged just as dramatically. So holding short-term position was similar to trading company earnings, which is, in a way, a form of gambling.
Long 
S&P Weekly RecapLast week saw significant moves in the S&P 500 , with Thursday’s open revealing a sharp gap down that quickly intensified into a strong sell-off. This correction unfolded despite strong earnings from “Big Tech” and was likely driven by weakness in key economic indicators, such as GDP growth and Non-Farm Payrolls, combined with uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections. Still, the broader weekly uptrend remains intact for now, as long as the index holds above key levels.
One area to watch closely is the 566.6 support, which has been tested by recent volatility. There’s no guarantee that this level will hold if selling pressure continues, so it’s a crucial line to monitor. That said, the general uptrend is considered safe above 538 , which is the major weekly low. Another significant level to watch is 561.5 , the Value Area High (VAH) of the recent weekly consolidation zone.
An interesting signal was the elevated call/put ratio on Friday. This uptick suggests that, despite the sell-off, bullish sentiment remains alive, with many viewing the dip as an opportunity. The continued strength of the XLC sector further reflects this optimism, as it managed to hold firm even through the broader index’s pullback.
Considering all the above, the long-term market outlook remains bullish. Key levels to watch in the coming days are 566.6 for immediate support, 561.5 as an important pivot point, and the weekly major low at 538 .
Next week is packed with high-impact events, including the U.S. elections and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision . Both are likely to drive heightened volatility and could serve as key catalysts for market direction.
Long 
Long 
S&P bulls maintain control but no initiative yetLast week was characterized by controlled selling, with prices drifting down slowly as the market awaited the unemployment data released on Friday. As we can see on the daily chart, sellers were unable to close the day below the previous day's low, even after a significant sell-off on Tuesday. Once the unemployment data was published, alleviating concerns about a potential recession, the bulls regained control, and the week closed on a positive note.
The next key objective for buyers is to break through the resistance around 574.7 . Given that this level has been retested multiple times, it's unlikely to hold. However, we still need to closely monitor the price's reaction to this level and observe what happens immediately after the breakout.
The long-term outlook remains bullish. In the short term, there is still a high possibility that prices will continue consolidating within the 565–575 range , as the market remains influenced by political uncertainty in the U.S.
S&P sets new high but weakness is mountingLast week, the market traded within a narrow range, yet still managed to reach new highs. The bulls remain in control of both the daily and weekly timeframes, although I’m not entirely comfortable with the structure that has developed over the past five days. Most of the growth occurred during extended hours, while during regular trading hours, the market either remained in a tight range or moved downward. This structure is fragile and could easily break, though I’m not ready to call for shorts just yet.
Firstly, it hasn’t broken. We're still in a bullish wave on the daily timeframe — in the past two weeks, none of the days have closed below the previous day's low. Secondly, even if the structure breaks, we should not expect significant follow-through, as the market remains very bullish.
Here's a quick recap of the key points supporting the bullish thesis (you can find the rest in my previous review):
1. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, which is positive for both the economy and the stock market for several reasons, such as cheaper borrowing costs.
2. The SPX has reached a new all-time high, which is highly bullish.
3. Both the weekly and daily charts show a strong uptrend.
For the market to reverse, there would need to be a significant shift in sentiment, likely triggered by some fundamental event. From a technical standpoint, the uptrend remains intact as long as the bulls hold the previous major low ( 538 ). Until then, any "red" waves should be viewed as mere pullbacks within the broader upward movement.
