Black FridayUp to 80% OFF

UVXY

Indicators for UVXYThis is the UVXY at the hourly. I think I found indicators that help predict a VIX bull day. 1) The purple lines on the chart are the Bollinger Bands set at the daily scale. 2) Middle indicator is the Divergence Indicator. It's the RSI, but helps identify divergences with RSI. 3) Bottom indicator is the MACD Divergence Indicator. Essentially, if the UVXY is or near oversold and has a bullish divergence (RSI or MACD), then a bull run happens shortly after. Whenever the UVXY touches/breaks the lower daily Bollinger Band, a bull run won't be that far away. If this can be mastered with identifying wedge patterns, then you can make serious profits from volatility trading.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by Itsallsotiresome
2
How to trade UVXY - TVIX - VIX Volatility FuturesHow to trade UVXY and other VIX volatility financial instruments - Look at the 1h chart. - Once the RSI crosses 30, wait 3 days for confirmation before buying UVXY. - Monitor the markets. - You want S&P500 to be overbought. Conditions before buying UVXY: - RSI has crossed 30 and is in a downward trend - MACD descending gap is forming and widening - Buy when the two lines cross on the MACD after the gap - Increase in volume Sell after 2-3 days In the example on the chart, you missed out on 44% and 66% profit! You won't miss out next time all the conditions are met! I hope you enjoy my trading guide and will test it in the future! Let me know your results!
CBOE:UVXYEducation
by brian7683
8
[RIP TVIX] Credit Suisse Gives 9 Day Market Shutdown Notice! :(Fckin unbelievable, this shit should be illegal. 9 days notice... what in the actual fck! Here's the news for those unaware: www.prnewswire.com I've poured countless hours into triangulating my play here over the past month and they just burn it all to the ground by bailing right when they know it's gonna get super juiced. What a consistency and reliability Credit Suisse, my god. I'm scrambling to figure out what this all means but as a knee jerk reaction here's where I'm at... 1. It should continue to perform as normal, if market goes down, price goes up. The problem is that we now have a 9 day deadline instead of being able to be patient and wait till we get our spike. You apparently "may" be able to trade OTC after the delisting but they have the right to totaly fck you if they want and are making nothing certain here. I will not be participating in that mess. 2. The Fed also noted it'll prop the market through the 13th which I have to assume played into Credit Suisse's July 2nd (Nasdaq) and July 11th (NYSE) delistings. 3. Invesco's UVXY is my next best bet here. 4. I liquidated 20% of my TVIX shares today and put into UVXY. It's not a fckin Panic FOMO play anymore, just a pure risk management play, timeline way too fckin short here and I can't keep 1/3rd of my portfolio exposed that much with this new reality. 5. I'd be happy to break even at this point but do hope to hold out and liquidate the rest of the shares at a small profit on some spike this week. Otherwise I'll just gradually exit and immediately rebuy UVXY so my my net short position is essentially unchanged. Just increasingly less TVIX exposure. 6. I will not be holding much if any through this weekend. 7. Everything I liquidate goes directly to UVXY for now. I haven't even pumped an analysis on it yet but it was my best performer after TVIX and actually got in the money more quickly than TVIX and stayed in the money better (I bought at same time). Little less upside potential but still really solid. 8. All bets are off... every man for himself... good luck all! I'm tagging all my TVIX ideas as a memorial and would like to leave you with my OG idea from May 20th... TVIX How to Profit from Volatility and the Next Crash Bye bye TVIX... you will be missed :(. Survival requires adaptation. Start adapting.
T
by ProfitHarvest
49
Update: I'm just slow but hey it workedSo I called out a potential UVXY trade and I missed the one indicator that every trader relies on Resistance However I mentioned that I was wanting to sell premium, and this retraction was actually beneficial to my theta gang strategy on my paper trading account 5pt iron condor at strike 85/90 call strike 45/40 puts strike It gained $50.00 P&L today bringing me to p&l open of (22.50) Theta: 9$ per day $2500 bp effect profit zone= 20-25% of max p&l P&L % (-%1.44) Re iterating my ridiculous price target yesterday Id want UVXY to stay between $55-65 until market close on friday.
CBOE:UVXY
by UnknownUnicorn7114726
THE WEEK AHEAD: TGT EARNINGS; XLE, XOP, EEM PREMIUM SELLINGEARNINGS: TGT (93/52) and COST (91/44) announce earnings next week, with a directionally neutral TGT short strangle shown here paying 3.87 at the mid price, delta/theta 1.01/9.64. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK AND SHOWING THE FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE STOCK PRICE: XLE (99/55), April XOP (97/79), April XMH (95/54), April FXI (95/40), May GDXJ (95/50), April EWW (95/43), April USO (91/48), April EWZ (90/48), April GDX (89/46), April XLU (88/26), June BROAD MARKET ORDERED BY RANK AND SHOWING THE FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE STOCK PRICE: EFA (100/38), June EEM (95/44), April IWM (88/42), April QQQ (83/47), April SPY (80/42), May FUTURES ORDERED BY RANK: /GC (100/20) /ES (113/40) /CL (100/51) /ZC (68/18) /SI (68/28) /NG (67/49) /ZW (11/28) VIX/VIX DERIVATES: VIX finished the week at a whopping 40.11 with the /VX term structure in backwardation, so it's an opportunity to add short call verticals or long put verticals in VXX and UVXY if you haven't already done so. For existing spreads (I've got a few), I'll be looking to play the elevator up/down game, rolling the long call aspect of my VXX credit spreads up to lock in profit on that side of the trade and improve my break even. In all likelihood, these will eventually require rolling out for duration come April opex due to the location of the short leg, but I'm fine with that. Pops can happen while you have these on, and you just need to be patient and make the best of them ... . GENERAL MUSINGS: For people who are into selling premium and who had large amounts of cash sitting on the sidelines, this is your "kid in a candy store" moment. Non-single name premium selling has finally become productive in that 45 day wheel house, even in broad market, where we were looking at going grotesquely long in duration last week to get paid. For those who had longer-dated premium selling setups on before this volatility expansion (points at self), well, I feel your pain. Be patient and mechanical, and some of that pain will inevitably give way to a volatility contraction going forward.
NYSE:TGT
by NaughtyPines
1
SP500 SPY Not finished yetI still do not think we are finished with this internal wave 4. That looks like 5 waves down to me. If you analyze the structure of the recent push up, including using the futures price movement, I really think we are in a B wave up of a running flat. and another thing....it is unusual for price to have stopped just past the .236% retracement. Something doesn't look right to me. I am personally going to try my luck with TVIX again expecting price to move up a little more by the 12th. This is the 1 hour chart. So the broken lines (Blue = 50 DMA, Burgandy = 20 week MA, and red = 100 DMA)...the 20 week and 100 day should be at approximately the .382 retracement by the 25thish. This is just my view of what's coming next. It is easy to think with such a bullish push up that we are finished with this correction. I just don't see it yet. good luck. consider everything. GL
TVC:SPX
by SalN
7
THE WEEK AHEAD: DBX, TECK EARNINGS; USO, GDXJ; VIX, VXX, UVXYEARNINGS: The earnings that are best metrically for earnings-related volatility contraction plays are DISH (87/59), TECK (87/52), and DBX (82/57). Unfortunately, strike availability in DISH is limited to two-and-a-half wides, making it an unattractive play given its stock price (39.97 as of Friday close). Pictured here is a DBX (82/57) skinny short strangle in the March cycle paying 1.98 on a buying power effect of about 3.25 (60.9%), break evens wide of the expected move, and delta/theta of 3.32/-7.44. Given its near-straddle narrowness, I would look to take profit at 25% max. Announcing on Thursday after market close, look to put on something in the waning hours of Thursday's session. The other one of interest is also small: TECK (87/52), which finished the week at 13.46. A play similar to that in DBX -- a March 20th 13/14 skinny short strangle -- pays 1.15 at the mid price on a buying power effect of about 2.25 (51.1%) with break evens greater than the expected move and delta/theta metrics of -4.21/2.17. As with the DBX skinny, look to take profit at 25% max. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH EXPIRY IN WHICH AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING GREATER THAN 10% OF STOCK PRICE: XLE (46/20), July USO (42/35), April FXI (35/21), August XOP (34/34), June XBI (34/27), June SMH (30/25), June EWZ (14/25), June GDXJ (5/28), May GDX (4/23), June The paying plays of shortest duration are in USO (April) and GDXJ (May). Take your pick in June between XOP, XBI, SMH, and EWZ. BROAD MARKET FUNDS WITH EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING GREATER THAN 10% OF STOCK PRICE: EEM (38/12), December QQQ (26/18), September EEM (23/18), September IWM (19/16), October SPY (16/13), November FUTURES (EXCLUDING CURRENCY/TREASURIES): /NG (52/39) /CL (41/35) /GC (26/11) /ZS (23/17) /ZW (20/21) /ZC (16/14) /ES (16/14) /SI (5/24) VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 13.68, so there are probably some happy campers out there who shorted the January-end volatility pop to nearly 20. The March, April, and May /VX contracts are trading at 15.40, 16.11, and 16.30, respectively. I could see going small with an April term structure trade if you haven't already got one on, but May isn't going for a ginormous premium over April, so there probably isn't much benefit to going out farther in time: the April 16/18 is paying .60 at the mid with a break even of 16.60 versus the /VX contract of 16.11; the May 16/20, virtually the same price. With the VXX short call verticals I already have on, I'm basically looking for a VIX low (it was around 12) to consider pulling some units off in profit. On the other end of the stick, I'm waiting for another pop in VIX to potentially add. VIX at 20 is a nice place to look to do that ... .
NASDAQ:DBX
by NaughtyPines
DO not buy and hiold this ETF! (UVXY Repost)Reposting because I see people still posting on this ETF...… (my followers can ignore this, this is a copy and paste of the original) Several people have asked me about UVXY because I flip UVXY puts every now and then.... These leveraged VIX ETFs have terrible decay. It's not something you hold and hope for volatility to go up again some day. If trading was that easy, everyone would do it. Instead the decay kills you. This is why I buy UVXY puts every time the market tanks, because I know the VIX has to come down eventually and UVXY decays. Dec 12 ... the underlying assets are options so there's always time decay. Also, leveraging makes it worse, and UVXY and TVIX are leveraged. Let's use TVIX 2X as an example with a 10% move down and 11.1% move up: Unleveraged: 100 -10% x 100 = 90 90 + 11.1% x 90 - 99.9 2x Leveraged: 100 - 2 x 10% x 100 = 80 80 + 2 x 11.1% x 80 = 97.76 So every time the underlying asset of a leveraged ETF moves up and down, it actually loses value even if the underlying asset recovers to the same price. Leveraged ETFs should only be used for short periods when you know the direction. Take note how this thing closed below $11, and the VIX hit 13.6, so this thing is gonna head under $10 when the VIX hits 12 again. That is what decay does.... Also, never buy VIX unless it's under 12, and even then it's a crap shoot. It stayed below 10 for a long time back in 2017. This concludes the lesson on leveraged VIX ETFs. (No position, but I lost money on this once and still making it back by shorting any pops)
CBOE:UVXY
by hungry_hippo
10
THE WEEK AHEAD: TWTR EARNINGS; FXI, USO, XOP; VIX, VXX, UVXYEARNINGS: TWTR (66/54) announces earnings on Thursday before market open, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's New York session to take advantage of post-announcement volatility crush. Pictured here is a 16 delta short strangle in the March cycle with -2.88/2.95 delta/theta metrics and break evens wide of the expected move paying 1.10. There are naturally a number of other earnings announcing next week (i.e., DIS, SNAP), but TWTR has the best implied volatility rank/30-day implied metrics to set up for a volatility contraction play. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK WITH FIRST MONTH IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE STOCK PRICE: FXI (86/30), June USO (72/41), March XLE (72/33), May SMH (68/29), May XOP (56/38), March IBB (56/25), June EWZ (50/30), April GDX (30/31), May GDX (27/27), May BROAD MARKET FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK WITH THE FIRST MONTH IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE STOCK PRICE: EEM (62/23), September EFA (60/15), December IWM (54/20), August QQQ (51/22), September SPY (50/18), October FUTURES (EXCLUDING CURRENCIES AND TREASURIES) ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK: /CL (64/42) /GC (47/13) /SI (38/21) /ZC (32/20) /NG (29/40) /ZS (18/18) /ZW (7/24) VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 18.84 with months 1-3 in backwardation; February finished at 18.30, March at 17.80, and April at 17.83. Here, I would add short volatility spreads in either VXX or UVXY, looking to collect one-third the width of the spread in credit (for short call verticals) or not pay more than one-third the width of the spread in debit (for long put verticals) (e.g., the VXX March 20th 16/17 short call vertical, paying .34).
NYSE:TWTR
by NaughtyPines