Nice signal in energy names. Macro and fiscal policy are sure making the Fed's life hard. The trend in commodities, energy, value vs growth remains bullish, same as the trend in the Dollar vs the Euro. The recent drop in inflation and oil created a very low risk buy opportunity in commodities in general. I've rotated away from my growth focused portfolio in the...
Pure Value & Low Vol relative to Pure Growth & High Beta. The rotation away from duration and beta has been very strong the past 2 months. As QT begins and liquidity dries up even more, I’d continue to favor shorter duration & lower beta segments of the market.
Value is currently oversold within a Long-Term uptrend relative to Growth. Would not be surprised to see the recent weakness from Value/strength from Growth abate here.
Here's a monthly chart of $IWD /$IWF (black line, rhs) and the US 10yr yield (orange, lhs) going back 15 years or so. The bottom panel here is the rolling 36month (aka 3yr) correlation between these two. As you can see, the rolling correlation currently sits at 0.88. While not quite as high as a few months ago, it seems clear that yields are still very much...
Long Russell 1000 Value / Short Russell 1000 Growth
In a market with declining corporate profits and a stagnant real disposable incomes, growth is scarce. However, with bond yields indiscriminately driving equity valuations towards records across nearly all sectors (both cyclical and non-cyclical) value is even more scarce, and becoming scarcer as multiple...
