Look at the VIX chart here; we are again in the VIX 18th zone. In 2022 it was an excellent indicator to spot the bottom; it works during the bear markets only!
So if we are still in a bear market, it should bounce from the 18 level hard and Indexes to fall. If we are entering a bull market, this setup can fail right here.
I doubt it will fail until we see Q1 lows...
The VIX will spike again, nothing to do about it.
Fundamentally, a perfect storm is brewing.
We had/have many events in the markets:
- Covid Pandemic
- Supply Chain Disrupted
- Ukraine Invasion
- Russia Sanctions
- Inflation Spike
- Energy Crisis
- Global Drought
- Interest Rates Hikes
What's next, a full-blown WAR?
The fund seeks to meet its investment objective, by taking long positions in VIX futures contracts. It will also hold cash or cash equivalents such as U.S. Treasury securities or other high credit quality, short-term fixed-income or similar securities (such as shares of money market funds) as collateral for Financial Instruments and pending investment in Financial...
VIX💥1D -TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
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A rule of 2 gives a perfect VIX long setup into Q1 on 2023 rally.
The markets are not over with the downside and VIX didn't get even one bottoming signal in 2022. It was intermediate bottoms, but no panic
Im going to add more VIX calls, Apr expiration this coming week.
Its in consolidation mode and should end soon with the breakout
DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided an UPDATED MACRO chart for the VIX with more reliable SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT & UPDATED TRAJECTORY.
POINTS:
1. DEVIATION of 7 POINTS in PRICE ACTION places SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS where most STABLE CONSOLIDATION OCCURS.
2. Current trend shows a DESCENDING CHANNEL with VIX NEARLY DOWN 50%
3. MACD'S...
VIX is in triangle and needs above 24.9 to confirm the new bullish explosive move.
I do believe this will do 3x or so before the market makes its final capitulation low
As mentioned before, I dont expect VIX to move till mid Jan, than i expect it to explode!
Im still long with 35 Apr calls and will be adding those to max size mid Jan as I expect the price to 3x from around here
$VIX is creating a Bullish 1-2-3 Pattern at its previous market structure bottom (Support marked by the grey box). Price is currently consolidating at support and what historic price action tells us is that price usually has a period of consolidation known as a pullback or "Retracement" before it continues in its overall direction. I have price returning to an...
VIX Watch the close above that yellow trendline and ideally above yesterday's close to get a confirmation of the turn today
If SPX gets to my first support zone at 3984-88 then VIX has a potential to get above that yellow trendline
Now lets do it
Its a very important close for the VIX, all in one day!
VIX closed at HOD and the markets closed above HOD!
Tomorrow's expected move 3.7% on average
- If CPI comes at 7.8% it will be 5% down day
- If CPI comes at 6.9% then it should go up 6-7%
My bet is we go lower or the vice versa from Oct 13th, where it gap down and then bid all day. So if second scenario...
Historically VIX bottoms around $20 and then tends to create some chaos. As we see here the VXX RSI has bottomed and MACD is close to crossing up. Looks like an upside move for VIX and VXX soon.
Getting close to its main support for the year.
All the time it got hit (this year) it reversed hard to the upside
VIX is in clear uptrend for a while now.
Check how and what the reaction was each time VIX gets above the trade range.
Expect VIX to hit 3x plus on the next upside!
Im accumulation 35 Apr calls, not going to sell those till the high, ideally in...
Watching 20-21 zone for a support.
Historically VIX 20 zone is the bear/bull line.
I expect that to me either tested or even broken for a fake move down and then start to explode.
When VIX is at 45+ watch for the market capitulation. Ideal target for the VIX is 65+ early next year.
When its moving above 35 and especially 45, no no longs for me period, only sell...
A lower low in the VIX not confirmed by a higher high in S&P 500 is a potential divergence. Previous tops and bottoms have seen similar kind of divergences where either one of the two does not confirm the move and hence results in a trend reversal.
Note- This is not an investment advice.
