BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD STAYS WEAK BELOW VALUE RESISTANCE BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD STAYS WEAK BELOW VALUE RESISTANCE
Gold starts the new week under pressure, trading back near the 4,100 area after continuing last week’s pullback. The market is reacting to renewed tension around Iran, stronger oil prices from Hormuz risk, and a firmer US dollar after the Fed’s inflation warning.
The daily setup still supports a defensive tone. Gold remains below the 21-day moving average, while RSI stays under 50. That means buyers have not regained full control yet.
Technical structure
On the 2H chart, gold is still trading below the main value resistance.
Price is currently trying to recover from the rising trendline area, but the bounce is not strong enough yet. The key zone above is the POC Rejection Zone around 4,090 - 4,095. If price tests this area and fails, sellers can defend again and push gold lower.
The main support I am watching is the VAL Buy Reaction zone around 4,020 - 4,030. This is the lower value area where buyers may attempt a reaction if gold sells down again.
As long as gold stays below the POC Rejection Zone and VAH Resistance, the structure remains weak.
Important zones
VAH Resistance: 4,150 - 4,155
Upper resistance and major sell reaction area.
POC Rejection Zone: 4,090 - 4,095
Main resistance and current value rejection area.
Rising trendline support:
Short-term structure support that buyers are trying to defend.
VAL Buy Reaction: 4,020 - 4,030
Main lower value support and possible buy reaction zone.
Trading scenario
Sell reaction from POC Rejection Zone 4,090 - 4,095
Entry:
Look for sell positions only if price rebounds into 4,090 - 4,095 and shows clear rejection.
Stop Loss:
Above the POC Rejection Zone or above the local rejection high.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,060
TP2: 4,020 - 4,030
TP3: Trail only if sellers break the VAL zone with momentum
This setup follows the current weak structure and uses the Volume Profile resistance as the main sell area.
Final view
Gold is still under pressure despite the small rebound from the trendline area.
For now, the better plan is to watch how price reacts around 4,090 - 4,095. If sellers defend this POC zone, gold can rotate lower towards 4,020 - 4,030.
A stronger bullish recovery only becomes valid if price reclaims 4,095 and later breaks above 4,150 - 4,155.
Trade the retest. Respect the volume zone.
Long
Bitcoin at 58,000 Support Buy the Dip or Trapdoor Lower?Bitcoin's Rollercoaster July Fed Whiplash, ETF Outflows and War Drums in the Gulf
Bitcoin has spent the past month whipsawing between fresh macro pressure and short lived relief rallies, and the headlines behind the move matter as much as the chart itself. US listed Bitcoin ETFs suffered their worst month on record in June, with roughly 4.5 billion dollars in net outflows, and most of that selling came from BlackRock's IBIT fund while retail buyers largely stayed on the sidelines and a handful of corporate holders kept accumulating. That outflow pressure coincided with a full weekly close below 60,000 dollars in late June, which also marked Bitcoin's first weekly close below its 200 week moving average since 2023. The macro backdrop turned more decisive when new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady at his first meeting in June and stripped out the rate cuts markets had priced in for the rest of the year, a repricing that dragged Bitcoin down from the low 70,000s toward 60,000.
Sentiment then found brief relief in early July as a softer June jobs report, only 57,000 jobs added against expectations above 100,000, combined with a friendlier tone from Warsh to lift Bitcoin back above 63,000. That relief has since been complicated by a sharp escalation between the United States and Iran, with Iran striking dozens of US linked sites in Bahrain and Kuwait and the US carrying out large-scale retaliatory strikes across Iranian territory, raising fresh concern over the Strait of Hormuz and pulling risk appetite lower across global markets.The July 28 and 29 Federal Reserve meeting remains a key date on the radar, with markets currently pricing roughly 70% odds of another hold, while the ongoing Gulf conflict warrants continued monitoring given its capacity to move oil prices and broader risk sentiment in either direction on short notice.
What the Market Has Done
Market was in a consolidation range between 84,000 (Daily level 1) and 66,000 (Daily level 2) from February to May.
In mid April, buyers were able to bid prices above yearly VWAP and attempted to accept and continue higher.
Sellers defended the 84,000 area (Daily level 1), which resulted in longs giving up and liquidating, causing prices to sell off down to the 66,000 area (Daily level 2).
Market subsequently broke below 66,000 and moved down to the 58,000 area (Daily level 3).
Since then, the market has established value lower and has been in a two-way rotation within June's value area.
What to Expect in the Coming Weeks
The key levels to watch are 63,000 (Daily level 2) and 58,000 (Daily level 3).
Neutral Scenario
Expect continued two-way auction between 63,000 and 58,000 before further directional resolution.
A period without fresh, market moving headlines out of the Gulf conflict or from Federal Reserve officials would likely keep participants balanced on both sides of the range, supporting continued two way rotation between 58,000 and 63,000 until a new catalyst emerges.
Bullish Scenario
If the market is able to reclaim back above 63,000, expect a move up to the 74,300 area, which lines up with the midpoint of the consolidation range and the projected yearly VWAP.
Expect sellers to respond at that level, and if they fail to hold it, expect continuation back up to the 84,000 area (Daily level 1).
A cooler than expected mid July inflation report, renewed ETF inflows, or a de-escalation in the Gulf conflict that eases oil driven inflation fears could act as the trigger for this scenario.
Bearish Scenario
If buyers are not able to defend 58,000 and price breaks down below it, expect a move down to the 51,000 area (Daily level 4).
Expect responsive buyers at that level, and if they fail to hold it, expect further downside toward the 44,000 area (Daily level 5).
A hawkish hold or surprise rate hike from the Federal Reserve on July 28 and 29, continued heavy ETF outflows, or a sharp escalation in the US Iran conflict that closes or threatens the Strait of Hormuz could act as the trigger for this scenario.
Conclusion
Technically, Bitcoin remains locked in a two-way rotation between 58,000 and 63,000, and the reaction at either boundary should set the tone for the next leg, with a reclaim of 63,000 opening the door toward 74,300 and a breakdown of 58,000 exposing 51,000. Fundamentally, the path from here likely hinges on the Federal Reserve's July 28 and 29 decision, the direction of ETF flows after June's record outflows, and whether the US Iran conflict in the Gulf continues to escalate or finds a path toward de-escalation. The technical levels and the macro catalysts should be viewed as connected rather than separate, since a single headline out of the Fed meeting or the Gulf could easily accelerate either scenario. Which scenario do you think plays out first, a reclaim of 63,000 or a breakdown below 58,000?
Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. This content is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any futures contract. Trade your own plan and manage risk.
Acronyms:
C - Composite
w - Weekly
m - Monthly
VA - Value Area
VAH - Value Area High
VAL - Value Area Low
VPOC - Volume Point of Control
LVN - Low Value Node
LVA - Low Value Area
HVN - High Value Node
HVA - High Value Area
SP - Single print
ATH - All time high
BTC: POC Reached — Continuation or Rejection?BTC: POC Reached — Continuation or Rejection?
BTC has now reached the key POC / VAMid area around 64.2k .
This was the main rotation magnet after the reclaim from lower value.
The chart is now entering a new decision point: if BTC accepts above POC, the next logical rotation is toward the Ditch and VAH. If POC rejects price, a retest of lower value levels becomes possible.
Core Thesis
BTC is no longer only trying to reclaim value.
Price has reached fair value.
The question now is whether BTC can accept above POC / VAMid and continue higher, or whether this level becomes short-term resistance.
Key Levels
POC / VAMid ~64.2k: current decision zone and main fair-value level
Ditch ~65.3k: next upside reaction zone if POC accepts
VAH ~66.0k: main upside rotation target and upper boundary of value
+DPOC ~63.0k: first retest area if POC rejects
dVAH / dPOC ~62.4k: secondary support cluster
VAL ~62.1k: key lower value support and stronger invalidation zone
Bullish Scenario
The bullish scenario starts with acceptance above POC / VAMid around 64.2k .
If BTC holds this area and continues building value above it, the next logical target is the Ditch around 65.3k .
After that, the main rotation target becomes VAH around 66.0k .
Acceptance above VAH would be the stronger signal that BTC is no longer simply rotating inside value, but attempting expansion above the range.
Bearish / Retest Scenario
If BTC only taps POC and starts closing back below it, then the move can turn into a short-term rejection.
In that case, the first logical retest area is +DPOC around 63.0k .
If that does not hold, BTC can rotate back toward the 62.4k support cluster .
The key level for the broader bullish structure is VAL around 62.1k .
Losing that area would weaken the continuation setup significantly.
Momentum Context
Q supports the bullish continuation scenario.
The market state is Full Bull , momentum remains constructive, and there is no clear bearish divergence visible here.
That is important because price is testing POC with momentum still looking healthy.
The smart row still shows potential divergence, so confirmation matters, but Q does not currently look like a clean exhaustion signal.
For the bullish case, I want to see price acceptance above POC while Q remains stable.
Educational Note
POC is not just a target.
It is the fairest price of the profile, where the most volume was accepted.
When price reaches POC, the market often makes a decision.
Acceptance above POC can shift the auction toward the upper value area.
Rejection from POC can send price back toward lower value references.
That is why this level matters so much.
Final View
BTC reached the main POC magnet.
Now the setup is about acceptance.
Accept above 64.2k POC -> rotate toward 65.3k Ditch -> 66.0k VAH.
Reject from POC -> retest 63.0k -> 62.4k -> 62.1k VAL.
No prediction. Just a conditional map around POC acceptance and Q momentum. 
Long
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD PULLBACK FIRST, BUY REACTION LATER BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD PULLBACK FIRST, BUY REACTION LATER
Gold is trading lower near the 4,100 area during the Asian session, but the structure has not fully broken yet. The market is reacting after failing to hold above the POC Retest Zone, while geopolitical tension between the US and Iran continues to add pressure to price action.
From a macro view, gold is caught between two forces. Rising US-Iran tension can support safe-haven demand, but the market is also adjusting Fed expectations after weaker US NFP data. That makes the current move more technical than emotional. The chart is showing a pullback into value, not a clean collapse yet.
Technical structure
On the 2H chart, gold is still trading above the broader recovery base, but short-term momentum has weakened after price lost the rising trendline.
The POC Retest Zone around 4,130 - 4,136 is now the first resistance. If gold fails to reclaim this area, price can continue selling first before the next buy reaction appears.
The cleaner buy area is the Pullback Buy Zone around 4,060 - 4,070. This zone sits inside the previous value structure and can attract buyers if price rotates lower.
Below that, the Previous POC Support around 4,025 - 4,030 remains the deeper support if the pullback expands.
Important zones
POC Retest Zone: 4,130 - 4,136
Current resistance and failed retest area.
Pullback Buy Zone: 4,060 - 4,070
Main buy-reaction area after a deeper sell-off.
Previous POC Support: 4,025 - 4,030
Deeper Volume Profile support if sellers extend pressure.
Buy-side Liquidity / Resistance: 4,195 - 4,205
Main upside target if buyers regain control.
Trading scenario
Buy reaction from Pullback Buy Zone 4,060 - 4,070
Entry:
Look for buy positions only if price sells down into 4,060 - 4,070 and shows clear bullish rejection.
Stop Loss:
Below the Pullback Buy Zone or below the local sweep low.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,130 - 4,136
TP2: 4,160
TP3: 4,195 - 4,205
This setup is based on waiting for gold to return into a stronger Volume Profile support instead of buying directly after a weak retest.
Final view
Gold may sell first before giving the cleaner buy opportunity.
The current area around 4,130 is resistance now. If price cannot reclaim it, I prefer waiting for the market to rotate lower into 4,060 - 4,070.
If that zone holds, gold can rebuild the bullish reaction towards 4,130 and possibly 4,200.
Let price reach value. Then trade the reaction.
Long 
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 09 — Volume AnalysisLesson 9 - Volume Analysis: Reading Conviction Behind Price
Difficulty: (Beginner–Intermediate)
Price tells you where the market is. Volume tells you how much conviction is behind it. Every breakout, every trend, every reversal leaves a footprint in the volume bars — and learning to read that footprint can help you separate signals with real strength from moves that fade quickly.
🔵 RECAP — WHERE WE LEFT OFF
In Lesson 8, you learned continuation patterns — Flags, Triangles, Rectangles, and Wedges. All of those breakouts share one hidden variable that determines whether they follow through: volume . This lesson gives you the framework to read it.
🔵 WHY VOLUME MATTERS
Volume is the number of contracts, coins, or shares traded during a period. Each candle has its own volume bar underneath it.
Volume acts as a conviction meter . It shows:
Whether a move is backed by real participation or empty movement
Whether large operators are entering or exiting
Whether momentum is accelerating or fading
🐳 Pro Tip: Price without volume is a story without an audience. Both matter — always read them together.
🔵 1. VOLUME ON BREAKOUTS
The most important volume signal: what happens when price breaks a level.
The image above shows a textbook example — BTC broke a multi-month resistance in January 2023 with a clear volume expansion. The move followed through and price continued higher for months.
Real breakout: price closes beyond a key level with a clear volume expansion. Higher-than-average volume suggests real participation and lower odds of a fakeout.
Weak breakout / potential fakeout: price crosses the level but volume stays flat or declines. Without conviction, the move can reverse quickly.
🐳 Pro Tip: Always look at volume on the breakout candle itself , not the candle before or after. That single bar tells you whether the move has fuel.
🔵 2. VOLUME DIVERGENCE
Divergence between price and volume can be an early warning that a trend is losing strength.
Bearish volume divergence: price makes higher highs, but each new high is on lower volume. Buyers are participating less with each push — the trend may be tiring.
Bullish volume divergence: price makes lower lows, but each new low is on lower volume. Sellers are giving up — the downtrend may be losing steam.
The chart above shows the top of the 2021 BTC rally — price made higher highs into November while volume made lower highs. Shortly after, BTC dropped from $69k to $35k.
🐳 Pro Tip: Divergence is a warning, not a signal. Wait for a price-action confirmation (like a reversal candle or structure break) before acting on it.
🔵 3. CLIMAX VOLUME
The extreme opposite of quiet volume: a single, massive volume spike far larger than anything nearby.
Blow-off top: climax volume at the end of an extended rally. Buyers rush in at the top — often the last wave of demand before a reversal.
Capitulation bottom: climax volume at the end of an extended sell-off. Sellers panic out — often marks the exhaustion of supply before a bounce.
The chart above shows the March 2020 COVID crash — a massive capitulation volume spike marked the exact low, and price recovered from $4k back to $10k over the following months.
🐳 Pro Tip: Climax volume alone does not confirm a reversal. Look for it in combination with a rejection candle (long wick, Doji, engulfing) and a strong S/R level.
🔵 4. VOLUME INSIDE A TREND
Healthy trends often show a specific volume signature:
In the trend direction — volume tends to expand
On pullbacks against the trend — volume tends to contract
When you see the opposite (declining volume on impulse moves, rising volume on pullbacks), the trend may be running out of fuel.
🐳 Pro Tip: Compare each candle's volume to the recent average — not to random past bars. Most platforms show a volume moving average line that helps with this.
🔵 5. VOLUME PROFILE — A DEEPER VIEW
Volume Profile plots volume horizontally across price levels instead of vertically over time. It shows where the most trading happened, not just when.
Key concepts:
Point of Control (POC): the price with the highest traded volume — often acts as a strong reference level
High-Volume Nodes (HVN): price zones with heavy participation — tend to act as support/resistance
Low-Volume Nodes (LVN): price zones with light participation — price often moves through them quickly
🐳 Pro Tip: Volume Profile is especially useful on higher timeframes. It highlights the levels institutions actually care about.
🔵 6. HOW TO USE VOLUME IN YOUR TRADING
Volume is best used as a confirmation tool , not a standalone signal.
Ways to apply it:
Confirm breakouts — enter only when volume expands with the move
Watch for divergence — early warning of a fading trend
Spot climax volume — potential exhaustion at extremes
Use Volume Profile — identify high-conviction price zones
🔵 7. COMMON BEGINNER MISTAKES
Trading breakouts without checking volume
Treating volume divergence as an immediate reversal signal
Ignoring the difference between a single spike (climax) and steady rising volume (trend confirmation)
Comparing today's volume to random old candles instead of the recent average
Using volume from illiquid assets or thin timeframes where the signal is noisy
🔵 8. YOUR VOLUME FRAMEWORK
Before acting on any volume signal, ask:
Is the volume expanding in the direction of the move — or against it?
Does the volume support the current trend, or hint at a shift?
Is this a single climax spike or part of a sustained pattern?
Does the volume signal align with a key level or pattern?
🔵 QUICK SELF-CHECK
Identify a high-volume vs a low-volume breakout at a glance
Recognize bullish vs bearish volume divergence
Spot climax volume at a market extreme
Explain what the Point of Control means on a Volume Profile
Combine volume with price action for stronger trade confirmation
🔵 WHAT IS NEXT
Lesson 10 — Moving Averages: we move from raw volume into the first classical indicator every trader learns. Simple, exponential, and weighted averages — how to read them, how to combine them, and how to use them for dynamic support and resistance.
Drop a comment: which volume signal do you rely on most — breakout volume, divergence, or climax spikes?
Full Trading Roadmap | Classical TA Course
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 01 — Mastering the Chart
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 02 — Mastering Trends
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 03 — Support & Resistance
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 04 — Price Channels
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 05 — Single Candle Patterns
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 06 — Multi-Candle Patterns
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 07 — Reversal Chart Patterns
Trading Roadmap | Classical TA · Lesson 08 — Continuation Chart Patterns
Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳 Education 
BTC: Inside Value — VAL Hold or Rotation Lower?BTC: Inside Value — VAL Hold or Rotation Lower?
BTC is currently trading inside the Value Area, but the position is not as strong as it may look at first glance.
Price is sitting close to the lower part of value, with VAL already tapped and Q momentum cooling.
That makes this a clean two-scenario setup: either BTC defends the lower value area and rotates higher, or it loses VAL and continues lower into the developing profile.
Core Thesis
BTC is not in confirmed bullish expansion yet.
The market is still inside value, which means the main job is to identify rotation points, not predict a breakout.
The key level is VAL around 62.2k . If buyers defend it, BTC can rotate back toward GP, POC and eventually VAH. If VAL is lost, the bearish scenario opens toward lower developing value.
Key Levels
VAL ~62.2k: the most important immediate support. Price has already tapped it.
dPOC ~62.6k: current internal magnet near price.
Golden Pocket ~63.5k-64.0k: first important upside reclaim zone.
POC / VAMid ~64.3k: main fair-value magnet above price.
VAH ~65.6k: upper boundary of value and the level needed for stronger bullish confirmation.
dVAH / dDitch ~61.9k-61.3k: first lower rotation zone if VAL fails.
dPOC ~60.2k: lower fair-value magnet.
dVAL ~58.3k: deeper bearish rotation target.
Bullish Scenario
The bullish scenario starts with BTC holding VAL around 62.2k .
If price holds this area and reclaims the internal dPOC around 62.6k , the next logical move is a rotation toward the Golden Pocket around 63.5k-64.0k .
That zone is the first real test for buyers.
If BTC can accept above the Golden Pocket, the next magnet becomes POC / VAMid around 64.3k .
The stronger bullish confirmation only comes after acceptance above VAH around 65.6k .
Until VAH is reclaimed, this is still mostly a value-area rotation, not a confirmed bullish expansion.
Bearish Scenario
If BTC loses VAL around 62.2k , the bullish rotation idea weakens.
In that case, price can rotate lower into the developing profile.
The first downside area is dVAH / dDitch around 61.9k-61.3k .
If that zone fails, the next logical magnet is dPOC around 60.2k .
A deeper acceptance below that area would open the path toward dVAL around 58.3k .
This would mean that price failed to defend the lower part of value and the market is searching for acceptance lower.
Momentum Context
Q is not giving a clean bullish continuation signal here.
The market state is bearish, momentum has cooled after the previous impulse, and the smart row shows potential divergence.
This does not automatically invalidate the bullish scenario, but it means price action needs to confirm it.
For the bullish case, I want to see BTC defend VAL, reclaim dPOC, and then show acceptance through the Golden Pocket.
Without that, the chart remains vulnerable to rotation lower.
Educational Note
When price is inside value, the market often behaves like an auction.
It rotates from one reference level to another: VAL, POC, VAH.
That is why acceptance matters more than a wick.
A wick into VAL can be only a test.
Acceptance below VAL would be a different message.
The same applies upside: touching the Golden Pocket is not enough. Acceptance above it is what would make the bullish scenario stronger.
Final View
This chart is about location.
BTC is inside value, close to VAL, with cooling momentum.
Hold VAL -> reclaim dPOC -> rotate to GP -> POC -> VAH.
Lose VAL -> rotate lower into dVAH / dDitch -> dPOC -> dVAL.
No prediction. Just two scenarios and the levels that decide them. BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD PULLBACK FIRST, BUY REACTION LATER BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD PULLBACK FIRST, BUY REACTION LATER
Gold is losing short-term momentum after failing to hold above the upper value area. Price has broken the rising trendline and is now testing the POC Reaction Zone around 4,120 - 4,125.
This does not mean the full bullish structure is dead, but it does show that buyers are no longer in full control at the current level.
The cleaner plan is not to chase buy here. Let price sell first into stronger value support, then watch for the buy reaction.
Technical structure
On the H1 chart, gold rejected from the Upper Value Resistance around 4,175 - 4,180 and started rotating lower.
The POC Reaction Zone near 4,120 - 4,125 is now the first decision area. If price cannot hold here, gold can continue the pullback towards the Prior HVN Support around 4,055 - 4,060.
That lower zone is more important because it sits near the previous high-volume support and can attract buyers again if the market wants to rebuild the recovery structure.
As long as gold stays above the Composite VAL Support near 3,960, the larger recovery base is still alive.
Important zones
Upper Value Resistance: 4,175 - 4,180
Main rejection area where sellers returned.
POC Reaction Zone: 4,120 - 4,125
Current value test and short-term decision zone.
Prior HVN Support: 4,055 - 4,060
Main buy-reaction area after a deeper pullback.
Composite VAL Support: 3,960 - 3,965
Major lower value support if bearish pressure expands.
Trading scenario
Buy reaction from Prior HVN Support 4,055 - 4,060
Entry:
Look for buy positions only if price sells down into 4,055 - 4,060 and shows clear bullish rejection.
Stop Loss:
Below the Prior HVN Support or below the local sweep low.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,120 - 4,125
TP2: 4,175 - 4,180
TP3: Trail higher only if price reclaims the upper value area
This setup is based on waiting for price to return into a stronger Volume Profile support, instead of buying directly into weakness.
Final view
Gold is likely to sell first before showing a better buy opportunity.
If 4,120 - 4,125 fails, I will watch 4,055 - 4,060 for the real reaction. That is where buyers need to defend the structure.
The market is not asking for prediction here. It is asking for patience.
Let price reach value. Then trade the reaction.
Short 
Does Wheat Hold 585 or Is Lower Still on the Table?Bumper Harvest Progress Collides With Fading Geopolitical Risk
Wheat futures have spent the past month grinding lower as fresh harvest supply overwhelmed a market that had been pricing in tighter production. Prices slipped to around 570 to 571 cents per bushel in late June, the lowest level since March, as the advancing US winter wheat harvest reinforced expectations of ample near term supplies. Hard red winter wheat was reported 49% harvested versus just 11% a year earlier and a five year average of 19%, while soft red winter wheat reached 45% harvested, also well ahead of its historical pace. This rapid progress has partly offset the bullish acreage story from USDA's June Wheat Outlook, which projected 2026/27 winter wheat production down 27% year over year to 1,030 million bushels, the smallest crop since 1965/66, with hard red winter output pegged at 497 million bushels, the lowest since 1957/58, largely due to persistent drought across the Great Plains.
On the geopolitical side, the US and Iran signed an interim memorandum of understanding in mid June that ended active hostilities, set a 60 day window for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, and outlined a path toward sanctions relief, while leaving the detailed terms of Iran's nuclear program to be negotiated separately within that window. This eased fertilizer and shipping risk that had been supporting wheat prices. That news also pushed European wheat futures in Paris below the 200 euro mark, their lowest level in weeks. It is worth noting that this arrangement remains an interim framework rather than a final deal, and recent reports point to continued disagreement between Washington and Tehran over its scope, so this is better viewed as a reduction in acute risk rather than a fully resolved situation.
Export demand has been choppy as well, with the week ending June 18 showing sales nearly double the prior year's pace, only for the week ending June 25 to fall to the lowest total of the new marketing year. Slower farmer selling and concerns over European wheat production following a recent heatwave have helped cushion the downside somewhat. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming USDA Grain Stocks report, continued harvest pace data, and any developments in the ongoing US Iran negotiating window, since these will likely determine whether prices stabilize here or extend the slide.
What did the Market do?
Towards the end of February, the market broke above 588 (daily level 3), imbalancing out of a multi-month consolidation range that had held from September through January 2026.
The market then auctioned two-way, forming an auction block between 635 and 588.
By the end of April, the market broke out above the 635 area (March and April CVAH), then retraced back to the middle of the auction block, where buyers stepped up bids.
That buying pushed price higher into the 700 area (daily level 1, February 2025 VAH), forming a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
Responsive sellers stepped in at the 700 area, sending prices lower back into the auction block and breaking below 620 (daily level 2), which ended the bullish structure of higher highs and higher lows.
More recently, sellers have stepped their offers down to 620 (daily level 2, June VAH) and price is now testing the 585 area (daily level 3, Jun VAL).
What to Expect in the Coming Weeks?
The key level to watch remains the 585 area (daily level 3, June VAL).
Neutral Scenario
If buyers continue to defend the 585 area and sellers defend 620 (daily level 2, June VAH), expect continued two way auction within June's value area.
A possible trigger for this range bound scenario would be a mixed USDA Grain Stocks report that neither confirms nor challenges current harvest pace assumptions.
Bearish Scenario
If buyers fail to hold 585, expect a move down toward the 560 area, the mid point of the prior consolidation range.
If buyers also fail to defend 560, expect a move down to the 533 area (daily level 4), which also marks the low of the consolidation range.
A possible trigger here would be confirmation of continued rapid harvest progress alongside weak export sales, reinforcing the ample supply narrative.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers break and accept above 620 (daily level 2, June VAH), expect a move up toward the 650 area (May HVN).
A possible trigger here would be renewed weather stress in European or US growing regions, or a setback in the fragile 60 day Hormuz safe passage arrangement under the MOU, since Iran has disputed parts of the deal's scope and the free passage window is temporary rather than permanent.
Conclusion
From a technical standpoint, wheat is sitting at a pivotal decision point at the 585 area, with the broader structure still range-bound between the 533 and 700 levels that have defined trading since last year. From a fundamental standpoint, the market remains caught between a genuinely smaller winter wheat crop, the smallest since the late 1950s and 1960s by USDA's own estimates, and a harvest that is arriving unusually fast, alongside a Middle East backdrop that has de-escalated following the interim US Iran memorandum of understanding, though that arrangement is still only a 60 day framework rather than a resolved situation. Whether 585 turns into a buying opportunity or a trapdoor to lower prices will likely hinge on which of these forces, tightening supply fundamentals or the durability of the harvest and geopolitical calm, wins out in the coming weeks. Where do you see wheat heading from here, and are you positioned for a breakout or a breakdown?
Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. This content is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any futures contract. Trade your own plan and manage risk.
Acronyms:
C - Composite
w - Weekly
m - Monthly
VA - Value Area
VAH - Value Area High
VAL - Value Area Low
VPOC - Volume Point of Control
LVN - Low Value Node
LVA - Low Value Area
HVN - High Value Node
HVA - High Value Area
SP - Single print
ATH - All time high
BRIAN XAUUSD – H4 WEEKLY STRUCTURE AND NEXT WEEK OUTLOOK BRIAN XAUUSD – H4 WEEKLY STRUCTURE AND NEXT WEEK OUTLOOK
Gold spent the week recovering from the lower value area after price reacted strongly around the 4,000 zone. On the H4 chart, the market is no longer in a clean free-fall phase. Buyers have started to build a rising recovery structure, supported by the trendline from the recent low.
The key point this week is simple: gold reclaimed the lower value base and pushed back towards the high-liquidity area around 4,170 - 4,190. This shows that buyers are active, but price is now entering an important resistance area where the next reaction matters.
Technical structure
On the H4 chart, gold is trading above the rising trendline and holding above the Buy zone VAH around 4,129.
As long as price stays above 4,129 and respects the trendline, the short-term recovery structure remains valid.
The next upside target is the Sell zone POC around 4,326. This is the main Volume Profile resistance above current price. If gold reaches this zone, sellers may defend strongly.
If price loses 4,129, the recovery weakens and gold may rotate back towards the Buy zone POC around 4,026.
Important zones
Buy zone POC: 4,026
Major lower support and recovery base.
Buy zone VAH: 4,129
Key support for the current H4 recovery.
High liquidity area: 4,170 - 4,190
Current reaction zone and short-term decision area.
Sell zone POC: 4,326
Main upside resistance for next week.
Higher POC: 4,460 - 4,470
Major upper resistance if bullish momentum expands strongly.
Next week outlook
For next week, gold can continue the recovery if buyers defend 4,129 and keep price above the rising trendline.
The main bullish path is a move from the current high-liquidity area towards 4,326.
However, this is still a recovery structure, not a confirmed long-term bullish reversal. The real test will come when price reaches the Sell zone POC.
Final view
Gold had a stronger recovery week on H4, but the market is now approaching a zone where buyers need to prove strength.
Above 4,129, the recovery remains alive.
Below 4,129, the structure weakens.
Around 4,326, sellers may return.
For next week, I prefer following the recovery while price holds the trendline, but I will not ignore sell reaction risk near the Volume Profile resistance.
Trade the retest. Respect the volume zone.
Long 
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD NEEDS A POC RETEST BEFORE THE NEXT PUSH BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD NEEDS A POC RETEST BEFORE THE NEXT PUSH
Gold is moving inside a cleaner bullish channel, but this is not the place to chase.
Price already pushed strongly from the Balance Support Zone and is now holding near the upper part of the short-term range. The move is bullish, but the better trade location is lower — around the POC Buy Zone.
This is where the next real reaction matters.
Technical structure
On the short-term chart, gold has built a clear upward structure after reclaiming value above 4,070.
The market is now trading above the POC Buy Zone around 4,120 - 4,130. This zone is important because it sits inside the current value area and can act as the next support base if price pulls back.
The VAH Sell Zone around 4,210 - 4,220 remains the upper resistance. If gold pushes directly into this area without a pullback, buyers may face stronger profit-taking.
The cleanest bullish continuation would be a pullback into the POC Buy Zone, followed by a strong reaction back into the upper channel.
Important zones
POC Buy Zone: 4,120 - 4,130
Main value support and preferred buy reaction area.
VAH Sell Zone: 4,210 - 4,220
Upper resistance and possible reaction area.
Balance Support Zone: 4,065 - 4,075
Deeper support if price breaks below the POC.
Rising channel:
The bullish structure remains valid while price respects the lower channel support.
Trading scenario
Buy reaction from POC Buy Zone 4,120 - 4,130
Entry:
Look for buy positions only if price pulls back into 4,120 - 4,130 and shows clear bullish rejection.
Stop Loss:
Below the POC Buy Zone or below the local swing low.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,165
TP2: 4,190
TP3: 4,210 - 4,220
This setup is based on the idea that gold may need to retest value before building the next upside wave.
Final view
Gold is bullish in structure, but price is already trading away from the best buy location.
For me, the real opportunity is not chasing the current candle. It is waiting for gold to return to the POC Buy Zone and watching whether buyers defend it.
If 4,120 - 4,130 holds, the next push towards 4,210 remains possible.
If this zone fails, the market may rotate back to the Balance Support Zone.
Would you buy the POC retest, or wait for price to break the VAH Sell Zone first?
Short 
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD IS TESTING THE LINE BETWEEN REBOUNDBRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD IS TESTING THE LINE BETWEEN REBOUND AND BREAKDOWN
Gold is now trading at a dangerous but interesting location.
After rejecting from the Sell POC area around 4,025 - 4,030, price continued to rotate lower and is now pressing directly into the POC Support Reaction zone near 3,970 - 3,975.
This is not the middle of the range anymore. This is where the market has to make a decision.
Technical structure
On the short-term chart, gold is still under bearish pressure. The last recovery attempt failed below the Sell POC, which means buyers were not strong enough to hold value above 4,020.
Now price is testing the lower support base. If buyers defend 3,970 - 3,975, gold can build a corrective rebound back towards 4,000 and possibly 4,025.
But if this support fails, the next downside targets are already clear: 3,956 first, then 3,941.
This is the type of zone where late sellers can get trapped, but early buyers can also be punished if they enter without confirmation.
Important zones
POC Support Reaction: 3,970 - 3,975
Current decision zone.
Sell POC: 4,025 - 4,030
Main resistance if gold rebounds.
VAH Sell Zone: 4,060 - 4,065
Higher supply area.
Target 1: 3,956
First downside target if support breaks.
Target 2: 3,941
Deeper liquidity target.
Trading scenario
Buy reaction from POC Support Reaction 3,970 - 3,975
Entry:
Look for buy positions only if price holds 3,970 - 3,975 and shows a clear bullish rejection.
Stop Loss:
Below the support reaction zone or below the local sweep low.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,000
TP2: 4,025 - 4,030
TP3: 4,060 only if buyers reclaim value strongly
This is a reaction trade, not a confirmed trend reversal.
Final view
Gold is sitting at a key decision zone.
If 3,970 - 3,975 holds, a rebound can form.
If this zone breaks, price may continue towards 3,956 and 3,941.
The chart is clean now: buyers must defend this support, or sellers will keep control.
Would you buy the reaction here, or wait for the breakdown below 3,956?
Short 
ES Futures at the 7300 Crossroads: Dip Buy or Trapdoor?Tech Stumbles While the Broader Tape Holds Its Ground
The S&P 500 has spent the past month wrestling with a tug of war between resilient breadth and a wobbly mega cap tech sector. Heading into late June, the Nasdaq Composite suffered a five session losing streak as investors rotated out of technology names and into more defensive corners of the market, even as the S&P 500 and Dow held up comparatively better on a weekly basis. Apple shares tumbled more than 5% after the company implemented its largest hardware price increase in years, while a New York Times report suggested OpenAI may delay its IPO into next year, citing weak aftermarket performance from SpaceX and broader volatility in AI related equities. That report rattled chip and AI infrastructure names, though Micron delivered a strong earnings beat that helped stabilize sentiment in the memory chip space for a session, even as Japanese and South Korean memory makers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia sold off sharply on oversupply concerns tied to SK Hynix's planned thirty billion dollar US listing.
On the macro side, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at its June meeting, the fourth consecutive hold under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The accompanying dot plot turned notably hawkish, with the median year end rate projection raised to roughly 3.8%, and several officials now pencil in a possible hike as soon as October rather than the cuts markets had hoped for earlier in the year. The Fed also lifted its inflation forecasts, pointing to energy driven price pressures tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Reinforcing that theme, President Trump said Iran fired attack drones at vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a development that keeps an energy and shipping risk premium alive even after a prior ceasefire. May personal consumption expenditure inflation rose to a three year high, and traders are now watching next week's nonfarm payrolls report after May's surprisingly strong 172,000 job gain. Investors should also keep tariff headlines on their radar, since the current global tariff structure is set to expire in late July with the administration signaling new tariffs may follow.
Context, What the Market Has Done
Since May, the market has accepted higher prices and broken out to new all time highs.
Selling liquidity and responsive sellers were found in the 7600 to 7700 area in June, leading to a rotation back down toward the 7300 area.
The 7300 area lines up with Daily level 3, the April value area high, which is confluent with Auction block 1.
Since that rotation, the market has been engaged in a two-way auction working to re-establish balance.
What to Expect in the Coming Weeks
The key level to watch remains the 7300 area, Daily level 3 and the April value area high.
Neutral Scenario
If buyers defend and hold the zone between 7300 and 7400, Daily level 2, the composite value area low, and sellers defend the 7600 area, expect continued two way consolidation before further directional resolution.
A possible scenario that could reinforce this range bound behavior is a period of mixed economic data, where jobs numbers come in roughly in line with expectations and Fed officials maintain a wait and see tone without fresh hawkish or dovish surprises.
Bearish Scenario
If buyers fail to defend 7300, and sellers cap upside rotations while stepping down offers, expect a move through Auction block 1 toward the 7150 area, Daily level 4, a composite value area high, where sellers are expected to respond.
A break and acceptance below 7300 would be significant, since it sets up a lower low and lower high, the early structural footprint of a possible bearish trend.
A geopolitical escalation, such as a further disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or a renewed spike in oil prices, alongside a hotter than expected inflation print, could be the catalyst that triggers this scenario.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers defend 7400, Daily level 2, the composite value area low, and step up bids within the current composite value area between 7400 and 7600, that would be a first sign of bullish intent.
A break above 7600, Daily level 1, the composite value area high, would open the path back toward the 7694 area, the prior all time highs, and potentially beyond to fresh highs.
A cooler than expected inflation report combined with a dovish shift in Fed commentary, or a de-escalation in Middle East tensions that eases oil price pressure, could provide the macro spark for this scenario.
Conclusion
From a technical perspective, the 7300 area is the line in the sand for this auction, with the broader structure still range-bound between the April value area high and the prior all time highs near 7694. From a macro lens, a hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh, sticky inflation, unresolved Middle East risk, and looming tariff changes in late July all argue for a market that needs clean catalysts before committing to a direction. Where do you see ES heading first, a defense of 7300 or a breakdown toward 7150? Share your take in the comments.
Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. This content is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any futures contract. Trade your own plan and manage risk.
Acronyms:
C - Composite
w - Weekly
m - Monthly
VA - Value Area
VAH - Value Area High
VAL - Value Area Low
VPOC - Volume Point of Control
LVN - Low Value Node
LVA - Low Value Area
HVN - High Value Node
HVA - High Value Area
SP - Single print
ATH - All time high BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD AT THE DECISION ZONE BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD AT THE DECISION ZONE
Gold is now standing at one of the most important areas of the week.
After a weak rebound, price is being pushed back down into the 4,120 - 4,126 zone. This is not a random support. It is the closest low area, the place where buyers either defend the structure or allow a deeper breakdown.
The chart is simple now: gold either reacts here, or the next leg lower can open.
Technical structure
On the H1 chart, gold failed to hold above the Sellside Liquidity zone around 4,185 - 4,195. That rejection shows sellers are still active at the upper value area.
Price is now pressing directly into 4,120 - 4,126. This is the key decision zone.
If buyers defend this area, gold can create a short-term rebound back towards 4,160 and possibly 4,185 - 4,195.
If this zone is completely lost, the market may sweep lower towards last week’s bottom around 4,070.
Important zones
Decision zone: 4,120 - 4,126
Main support and current battlefield.
Sellside Liquidity: 4,185 - 4,195
Upper resistance and failed recovery area.
Short-term resistance: 4,240 - 4,250
Higher resistance if buyers regain control.
Last week’s bottom: 4,070
Next downside target if support breaks.
Trading scenario
Buy or breakdown reaction at 4,120 - 4,126
Entry:
Look for buy reaction only if price holds 4,120 - 4,126 and shows clear bullish rejection.
Stop Loss:
Below the decision zone or below the local sweep low.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,160
TP2: 4,185 - 4,195
TP3: 4,240 if momentum expands
Breakdown condition:
If 4,120 - 4,126 is lost and price fails to reclaim it, the structure turns weak again. In that case, gold can continue lower towards 4,070.
Final view
Gold is not in the middle anymore. It is sitting directly on a major decision zone.
This is where the next move can be built.
Hold 4,120 - 4,126, gold can rebound.
Lose this zone, the door opens towards 4,070.
Would you buy the reaction here, or wait for the breakdown confirmation?
Short 
Lumber at the 620 Crossroads, Breakout Brewing or Bull Trap?Tariffs, Wildfires, and a Tight Supply Story Behind the Rally
Lumber futures have staged a notable rally through June 2026, climbing toward levels not seen since October 2025. Prices pushed above 630 per thousand board feet, a four week gain of roughly 6.3 percent, even as the broader housing market remains soft. This move has been driven primarily by supply side developments rather than a surge in construction demand.
On the trade policy front, the US Commerce Department recently lowered preliminary antidumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber from 20.6 percent to 10.7 percent, while the countervailing duty rate edged down from 14.6 percent to 14.2 percent. Combined, this brings the total rate down to about 25.9 percent from 35.2 percent previously, though these rates are preliminary and are not expected to take effect until August. Importantly, the separate 10 percent Section 232 tariff remains in place, keeping the effective rate on Canadian imports close to 35.9 percent. This means the headline reduction in duties has done little to ease actual import costs in the near term, and traders should watch for the finalization of these rates later in the year as a potential catalyst.
On the supply side, British Columbia has introduced emergency measures aimed at boosting timber availability after wildfires and storm damage disrupted production and threatened output. Combined with prior mill closures across 2024 and 2025 that reduced overall milling capacity, this has kept lumber supply relatively tight even as demand signals from the housing sector stay mixed. Canada still supplies roughly 30 percent of US lumber consumption, so any disruption to Canadian output continues to carry outsized influence on price.
Readers should watch for further updates on the finalized antidumping and countervailing duty rates expected around August, ongoing wildfire season developments in British Columbia, and any changes in US housing starts data or Federal Reserve rate guidance, since lower borrowing costs have historically been supportive of new home construction and lumber demand.
Context, What the Market Has Done
Market has been in a multi-year downtrend, weighed down by the unwinding of pandemic era demand that had peaked in 2020 and 2021 amid record low mortgage rates and a remodeling and homebuying surge, prolonged high mortgage rates from 2022 onward that suppressed housing starts, and periods of oversupply from mills that had ramped up capacity during those earlier boom years.
By the end of 2025 and through January and February 2026, the market was sideways in a consolidation block between 650 and 600.
Market probed below the auction block in March but was met with responsive buyers, and price rotated back into the consolidation range.
Sellers subsequently stepped down offers within the range to the 620 area, the mid of the range, which was confluent with the yearly VWAP.
Sellers were able to drive another leg lower subsequently below 600.
Market attempted to accept lower with a probe beneath 580 but was rejected back up.
Recently in June, the market staged a big rally, with buyers bidding prices back above 600 (CVAH), above 612 (yearly VWAP), and now probing above 620 (range mid).
What to Expect in the Coming Weeks
The key level to watch is 620, the daily level 2 and range mid, along with the yearly VWAP.
Neutral Scenario
If buyers defend at 600 (CVAH) while sellers hold down offers at the 620 to 630 area, expect a sideways two way auction before further directional resolution.
A possible trigger for this scenario would be a delay or further postponement in the finalization of the Canadian softwood antidumping and countervailing duty rates, leaving traders without a clear catalyst and keeping the market in a holding pattern.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers are able to defend and accept above 620, expect a move up towards 650, the daily level 2 and consolidation block high, where sellers are likely to be present to defend.
If buyers are able to bid above 650, expect a move up to 690, the daily level 1. This break and acceptance above 650 would be significant, as it would end the multi-year downtrend structure.
A possible trigger for this scenario would be confirmation of tighter Canadian supply due to continued wildfire and storm related disruption in British Columbia, or a dovish shift in Federal Reserve rate guidance that supports housing activity expectations.
Bearish Scenario
If buyers fail to sustain above 620 and the market rotates back below, expect a move down to 600 (CVAH). If buyers do not defend this level, expect a move down to the 580 to 565 area, the CVAL and recent swing low. Below this zone, expect resumption of the broader downtrend.
A possible trigger for this scenario would be a weaker than expected US housing starts report or a finalized tariff outcome that effectively keeps total Canadian duty costs unchanged, removing the recent optimism that has supported the rally.
Conclusion
From a technical standpoint, lumber sits at a pivotal juncture around the 620 level, at the mid of the multi month consolidation range. Acceptance above this zone with a subsequent move through 650 would carry structural significance, potentially marking the end of the multi-year downtrend. From a fundamental standpoint, the recent rally has been fueled largely by supply constraints tied to Canadian wildfire damage and mill closures, while the trade policy backdrop remains a source of uncertainty given that the lower preliminary tariff rates have not yet taken effect and the Section 232 tariff continues to keep effective import costs elevated. Traders should weigh this supply driven strength against still soft housing demand fundamentals before assuming the breakout will hold. Where do you think lumber heads next, breakout above 620 or a fade back into the range? Share your view in the comments below.
Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. This content is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any futures contract. Trade your own plan and manage risk.
Acronyms:
C - Composite
w - Weekly
m - Monthly
VA - Value Area
VAH - Value Area High
VAL - Value Area Low
VPOC - Volume Point of Control
LVN - Low Value Node
LVA - Low Value Area
HVN - High Value Node
HVA - High Value Area
SP - Single print
ATH - All time high
ZN 109 Hold: Temporary Relief or Structural Shift? A Market Caught Between Oil Shocks, Fiscal Anxiety, and a Reluctant Fed
The macro backdrop for ZN futures has been anything but quiet over the past month. The US-Iran conflict, which broke out in late February 2026, has been the dominant driver reshaping rate expectations across the board. The disruption of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices sharply higher, contributing directly to US producer prices rising 6.5% year-over-year in May, the highest reading since November 2022 and slightly above consensus estimates of 6.4%. Consumer prices followed the same trajectory, hitting a three-year high. That combination effectively repriced the Fed's path for the rest of the year. What began 2026 as a market pricing two rate cuts has since shifted dramatically, with futures markets at various points assigning as high as a 50% probability of a rate hike by December, before settling back to a more balanced stance as Iran peace talks emerged mid-June. As of June 12, the 10-year yield hovered near 4.47%, pulling back roughly 10 basis points as President Trump signaled a potential peace agreement with Iran could be signed in Europe that weekend, triggering a sharp drop in oil prices and easing inflation concerns.
Layered on top of the geopolitical shock is the persistent fiscal overhang. Moody's downgraded US sovereign credit from Aaa to Aa1 in May 2025, and the budget deficit is now widely expected to widen toward 9% of GDP, adding a meaningful term premium to longer-dated yields. Bank of America flagged in a June 2026 report titled "Foreign UST demand shows cracks" that central banks have been reducing Treasury holdings at the New York Fed by an average of $17 billion per week since late March, with total net reductions approaching $4 billion through the week ending June 11. Foreign appetite for US debt has softened materially, and while recent long-end auctions have been described as "solid," the structural concern about who absorbs ongoing supply remains in the background.
The yield curve itself is signalling a late-cycle environment. As of June 12, the curve is upward-sloping, with the 2-year yield near 4.09% and the 10-year at 4.47%, producing a 2s10s spread of roughly 38 basis points. That steepness is not the healthy, growth-driven variety. Instead, it reflects the long end pricing in inflation persistence and term premium risk while the front end stays anchored near the Fed funds target of 4.25%. Charles Schwab's fixed income mid-year outlook noted that inflation remains sticky and the Fed is likely to stay patient, with the 10-year yield expected to hold in the 4% to 4.5% range, with risks skewed to the upside. Watch the US dollar as well, with DXY near 99.8 after a recent surge toward 10-week highs driven by geopolitical safe-haven flows, the dollar remains a key co-variable to watch alongside oil and bond prices for ZN direction.
What the Market Has Done
Market liquidity checked at the start of March above 113'11'5 (Daily Level 1) and failed, marking the beginning of a sustained trend lower.
From that March high, ZN sold off steadily, driven by the escalating US-Iran conflict, energy-driven inflation re-acceleration, and the repricing of Fed rate cut expectations away from the 2026 consensus.
Price found its way down to 109 (Daily Level 2 / May lower HVA), which represents the daily support zone from April and May 2025 and has acted as a meaningful reference point for buyers.
In the most recent week, the market appears to have found buying liquidity at this zone, with buyers stepping up bids and price stabilizing, consistent with the broader easing in oil prices and the Iran peace deal narrative gaining traction around June 12.
The broader structure, however, remains a downtrend from the March highs, and the onus is on the buyers to demonstrate they can reclaim higher ground with conviction rather than a bounce.
What to Expect in the Coming Weeks
The key levels to watch are 110 (May VPOC) and 109 (Daily Level 2 / May lower HVA). How price behaves around these two references will determine the next directional leg.
Neutral Scenario
Expect two-way rotation within the 110 to 109 range as the market re-establishes value before committing to a directional move.
Price may oscillate between these references across multiple sessions as participants digest the already-hot May CPI print of 4.2% year-over-year and position ahead of the next key inflation catalyst on July 14, when June CPI drops.
This is the chop scenario where neither buyers nor sellers gain a decisive edge, and range-fading strategies become more viable than directional bets.
A stable macro backdrop with no major surprises from inflation or geopolitical developments would support this rotational environment.
Bullish Scenario
If the market is able to break and accept above 110 (May VPOC), expect a move back towards 110'25 (Apr VAL / May VAH).
Reclaiming 110 with acceptance would effectively break the downtrend structure from the March highs, shifting the character of price action from sellers-in-control to a recovering market.
Watch for volume confirmation and follow-through above 110 before treating any initial breach as a genuine structural shift.
A possible macro trigger could be a confirmed Iran peace agreement that sends oil prices sharply lower, meaningfully reducing inflation expectations and reviving rate cut pricing for late 2026, which would be a direct tailwind for bond prices.
Bearish Scenario
If buyers do not defend 109 and prices accept below that level, expect further downside to 108 (Daily Level 3 / Feb 2025 low), representing a resumption of the downtrend from March.
A clean break below 109 with follow-through would confirm that the buying liquidity found this past week was corrective rather than structural, and the path of least resistance remains lower.
This is the scenario where the fiscal overhang, foreign demand erosion, and persistent inflation all reassert themselves simultaneously, offering sellers the macro justification they need.
A possible macro trigger could be a renewed escalation of the Iran conflict, a surprise hot inflation print in June, or an unexpected Fed hawkish pivot that pushes markets to price in a rate hike more firmly, sending yields higher and ZN futures lower.
Conclusion
ZN sits at a genuine decision point. On the technical side, price is parked at a critical support zone (109 / Daily Level 2 / May lower HVA), where buyers have shown up in the past week, yet the overarching trend structure from the March highs at 113'11'5 remains intact and bears watching. The 110 level (May VPOC) is the line in the sand; holding below it means the downtrend is in force, and only a sustained acceptance above it shifts the narrative. On the macro side, the developing Iran peace deal is the near-term wildcard, having already pulled the 10-year yield back to around 4.47% from recent highs. But the structural headwinds of a widening fiscal deficit, foreign demand erosion from central banks, Moody's credit downgrade, and sticky inflation do not disappear with a ceasefire headline. The Fed remains on hold with no clear catalyst to pivot dovish. The market has shown buyers are present at 109, but buyers showing up and buyers being in control are two very different things. Which side of 110 does ZN close in the weeks to come? That answer should tell you everything about whether the dip here is an opportunity or the beginning of a deeper move to 108 and beyond. Drop your view in the comments below.
Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. This content is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any futures contract. Trade your own plan and manage risk.
Acronyms:
C - Composite
w - Weekly
m - Monthly
VA - Value Area
VAH - Value Area High
VAL - Value Area Low
VPOC - Volume Point of Control
LVN - Low Value Node
LVA - Low Value Area
HVN - High Value Node
HVA - High Value Area
SP - Single print
ATH - All time high
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD PREPARING FOR EARLY WEEK RECOVERY
Gold is showing a stronger recovery structure on the H1 chart after reacting from the lower value area. Price has built higher reactions above the Buy zone VAH around 4,156, showing that buyers are trying to regain short-term control.
The current move is not a full long-term reversal yet, but the intraday structure is improving. If gold continues to hold above the lower value support, the market can extend the recovery into the next Volume Profile resistance zones.
Technical structure
On the H1 chart, gold has broken away from the recent low and is now building a corrective bullish structure.
The key support is the Buy zone VAH around 4,156. This is the main area buyers need to defend. As long as price holds above this zone, pullbacks can still support continuation higher.
The next resistance is the Sell scalping zone around 4,264. If price breaks and accepts above this area, gold can continue towards the Sell swing POC around 4,332.
The descending trendline is still above price, so the move should be treated as a recovery phase until gold clearly breaks through higher resistance.
Important zones
Buy zone VAH: 4,156
Main support and buy-reaction area.
Sell scalping zone: 4,264
First upside resistance and reaction zone.
Sell swing POC: 4,332
Main Volume Profile resistance and higher recovery target.
Trendline resistance:
Short-term pressure line that price needs to break for stronger upside continuation.
Trading scenario
Buy reaction from Buy zone VAH 4,156
Entry:
Look for buy positions only if price pulls back into 4,156 and shows clear bullish rejection.
Stop Loss:
Below the Buy zone VAH or below the local swing low.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,246
TP2: 4,264
TP3: 4,332
This setup is based on the lower value support where buyers already showed reaction. If price holds this zone, gold can continue the early-week recovery.
Final view
Gold is starting the new week with a stronger short-term recovery structure.
The main plan is to wait for price to hold above 4,156 and look for buy confirmation. If buyers defend this zone, gold can continue towards 4,264 and possibly 4,332.
The larger trendline resistance is still important, so confirmation matters.
Trade the retest. Respect the volume zone.
Long 
EUR/USD Projections for the Upcoming Week (macro/cot/technical)
1. Structure Overview, Macro Reality & Momentum
The market structure on the H4 timeframe is undeniably bearish, trading at a steep deviation below both the 50 MA and 200 MA. However, from a critical standpoint, standard macroeconomic narratives surrounding this sell-off must be treated with extreme skepticism. Mainstream analysis attempts to map fundamental data (like inflation prints or central bank rhetoric) directly to price action, ignoring that algorithms and institutional models price in these expectations weeks in advance.
Upcoming Tier-1 economic data should not be viewed as a directional blueprint, but purely as a volatility engine. Market makers will use the temporary liquidity influx surrounding news releases to engineer sweeps (stop-runs) against retail consensus. The current momentum is exhausted; we are in the late stages of a markdown phase. Relying on further bearish macro catalysts to short the absolute bottom presents a poor risk-to-reward ratio.
2. Liquidity Map, Volume Profile & Institutional Positioning (COT)
We have violently broken through the Previous Week Low (PWL) and Previous Month Low (PML), leaving behind heavily imbalanced Low Volume Nodes (LVNs). The price is now attempting to build value at the lows.
When mapping this against the Commitments of Traders (COT) data for Euro FX Futures (6E), a critical discrepancy emerges. COT is a T+3 lagging indicator (data compiled Tuesday, released Friday). It consistently shows Leveraged Funds (trend-followers) aggressively building short exposure at the bottom of the curve, while Commercials (hedgers/smart money) scale into longs.
If the Leveraged Funds' short trade has become overcrowded in this 1.15300 - 1.15500 consolidation block, the market is highly susceptible to a "fat tail" event: a violent short-squeeze. Institutional algorithms are highly aware of where these late-arriving shorts have placed their stop-losses (buy-stops) – exactly above the immediate H4 lower highs and the PML.
3. Scenario Projections (Actionable Setups)
Bullish Case (The Squeeze & Mean Reversion): This is currently the most asymmetric trade. If the price spikes below the 1.15119 swing low during a macro news event (a classic liquidity sweep) but immediately violently reverses back inside the current H4 Point of Control, it signals that the late COT shorts are trapped. A forceful recapture of the PML (1.15500) will trigger a cascade of short-covering, ignoring macroeconomic fundamentals entirely. The target is the structural void up to the broken PWL (1.15728).
Bearish Case (Value Acceptance): For the bearish trend to continue sustainably, we cannot just see a spike. We need cold, mathematical acceptance of value. A daily close—not just an H4 wick—below the 1.15290 PML, accompanied by a shift of the POC lower, proves that institutional sellers are genuinely defending their positions, rather than just taking profits. This opens the trapdoor for further downside price discovery into uncharted territory.
"No-Trade" / Consolidation Zone: The noise box between 1.15350 and 1.15500. This is an area of pure entropy where retail traders bleed capital through random variance. Engaging here without a structural catalyst is statistically unprofitable. Wait for the algorithms to reveal their hand via a sweep or a clean breakout.
4. Key Levels to Watch
1.16078 – High Volume Node (HVN) / Major structural invalidation for the macro downtrend.
1.15728 (PWL) – The previous week's low; the primary mean-reversion target and major S/R flip.
1.15507 (PML area) – The psychological ceiling of the current consolidation; reclaiming this traps the late shorts.
1.15420 – The developing Point of Control (POC); the current axis of equilibrium.
1.15119 / 1.14977 – Terminal downside liquidity pools. Expect heavy algorithmic interaction, stop-runs, and high volatility here. Crude at 96: War Premium Exit or Dip Worth Buying? War Premium Unwinds, But the Strait Is Still Shut
The single biggest driver of crude over the past several months has been the US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. At its peak in early April, Brent crude surged above $140 per barrel, the highest since 2008, as the conflict removed an estimated 12 to 15 million barrels per day from global supply and triggered record inventory drawdowns. The IEA noted that cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceeded 1 billion barrels, with more than 14 million barrels per day shut in. The EIA reported that the US made its single largest-ever weekly drawdown from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in mid-May, underscoring just how tight the physical market became.
The story in May, however, shifted dramatically toward diplomacy. Reports emerged that the US and Iran had "mostly agreed" to a 60-day memorandum of understanding that would pause hostilities, sending Brent down roughly 19% for the month, its worst monthly performance since the COVID-19 pandemic. By May 29, Brent settled near $92.56. That peace optimism has since proven fragile. Iran subsequently halted ceasefire talks, fresh strikes were reported on Kuwait and Oman in early June, and Iran's Foreign Minister stated there had been "no tangible progress" despite ongoing back-channel messaging via mediators. WTI has since bounced back above $90 on renewed geopolitical risk premium.
On the supply side, OPEC+ approved a largely symbolic 188,000 barrel-per-day production hike for June on May 3, with Saudi Arabia signaling further similar-sized increases are possible. However, these additions are meaningless so long as Gulf producers cannot physically export through Hormuz. The UAE, meanwhile, exited OPEC+ entirely. The IEA reaffirmed a significant 2026 global surplus outlook contingent on Hormuz reopening, a condition that remains unresolved. In correlated markets, the DXY traded near 99 to 100 at end of May, holding near two-month highs on safe-haven demand and higher-for-longer Fed pricing after US headline CPI hit 3.8% in April. Equities are under pressure, with the S&P 500 trading near 7,383 and the Nasdaq off over 4% on the week. A stronger dollar and weakening risk appetite are headwinds for crude demand narratives, even as supply fears keep a floor under prices.
What the Market Has Done
Since April, the market has been compressing with higher lows and lower highs, forming a textbook symmetrical contraction as the market digested the initial war shock and the subsequent peace-deal-driven sell-off.
In May, price stabilized into a sideways range between 105 (daily level 1) and 86 (daily level 2), with participants on both sides unwilling to commit directionally amid the ceasefire noise.
May closed with a double distribution profile on the volume profile, reflecting two distinct areas of accepted value and signaling the market is in a balancing phase rather than a trending one.
Recently in the last week, sellers have stepped down to the 96 area, which aligns with May's Low Value Area (LVA) and VPOC, suggesting the short side has found an area of interest and is probing for acceptance below the upper distribution.
What to Expect in the Coming Weeks
Key levels to watch are 86 (daily level 2) and the 96 area (May LVA / VPOC).
Neutral Scenario.
If buyers continue defending 86 while sellers maintain offers around 96, expect a two way balanced auction as the market continues establishing value before its next directional resolution.
A possible trigger could be a continued diplomatic stalemate on the Hormuz deal, where neither a full ceasefire nor a re-escalation materializes, leaving markets in a geopolitical holding pattern.
Bearish Scenario
If buyers fail to defend 86, expect acceptance below Daily Level 2 and a move toward 77, which represents Daily Level 3.
Acceptance below 86 would suggest that buyers are no longer willing to defend the lower end of the current range and that the market is seeking value lower.
A possible trigger could be a confirmed ceasefire deal or the formal reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, releasing pent-up supply and collapsing the geopolitical risk premium rapidly.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers reclaim and establish acceptance above the 96 area, expect a move back toward 105, which remains Daily Level 1.
Reclaiming 96 would signal that buyers have regained control of the upper distribution and that the market is prepared to continue rotating higher within the broader 105 to 86 range.
A possible trigger could be a breakdown of ceasefire talks combined with fresh strikes on Gulf infrastructure, reigniting supply fears and sending the risk premium sharply higher.
Conclusion
Crude oil is caught between two powerful and opposing forces. On one hand, the physical market remains deeply undersupplied as the Strait of Hormuz stays restricted, with global inventories drawing down at a record pace and no credible timeline for normalization. On the other side, the diplomatic noise around a potential US-Iran deal has already slapped nearly 20% off the highs in a single month, demonstrating just how violently risk premium can exit this market. Structurally, price is compressing at the May LVA/VPOC around 96, with 86 as the critical line in the sand for bulls and 105 as the ceiling sellers are defending. Whether 86 holds or breaks will be the defining trade of the coming weeks. The geopolitical tape is trading faster than any chart. The ceasefire crowd already took 20% off the highs. If they are wrong and Hormuz stays shut, 105 could come back on the table fast. Which side of this are you on?
D isclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. This content is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any futures contract. Trade your own plan and manage risk.
Acronyms:
C - Composite
w - Weekly
m - Monthly
VA - Value Area
VAH - Value Area High
VAL - Value Area Low
VPOC - Volume Point of Control
LVN - Low Value Node
LVA - Low Value Area
HVN - High Value Node
HVA - High Value Area
SP - Single print
ATH - All time high
BRIAN XAUUSD – DAILY FRAME OVERVIEWHello Traders
Gold is trading under short-term pressure after failing to recover above the upper value zone. The daily chart shows price rotating lower inside a corrective structure, with XAUUSD now sitting near the Value Area Low around 4,300 - 4,330.
From a macro view, gold remains sensitive to USD strength, Fed rate expectations, and defensive market positioning. However, the chart is giving the cleaner signal now: price is trapped between VAL support below and the Sell POC zone above.
Technical structure
On the daily chart, gold is moving inside a broad descending trendline structure after the previous upside cycle lost momentum.
The key resistance is the Sell POC zone around 4,520 - 4,560. This area also aligns with the descending trendline, making it the main supply cap for any recovery.
As long as price stays below this Sell POC and trendline resistance, upside moves should be treated as corrective retests, not confirmed bullish reversal.
The current support is the VAL zone around 4,300 - 4,330. If buyers defend this area, gold can rebound back towards the Sell POC. If VAL fails, the next downside magnet is the strong monthly support around 4,100, followed by the deeper trendline support near 3,900.
Key levels
Sell POC: 4,520 - 4,560
Main resistance and sell-retest area.
VAL support: 4,300 - 4,330
Current value support and short-term decision zone.
Strong monthly support: 4,100
Next reaction area if VAL breaks.
Deep trendline support: 3,880 - 3,930
Major support zone if sellers extend control.
Trading scenarios
Scenario 1: Sell the retest into Sell POC
This is the main setup if gold rebounds from VAL but fails below resistance.
Entry:
Look for short positions only if price retests 4,520 - 4,560 and shows clear rejection below the descending trendline.
Stop Loss:
Above the Sell POC structure or above the rejection high.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,300 - 4,330 VAL
TP2: 4,100 monthly support
TP3: 3,900 trendline support if downside momentum expands
This scenario follows the current bearish corrective structure while price remains below the main volume resistance.
Scenario 2: Buy reaction from VAL support
This is a short-term reaction trade, not a full reversal.
Entry:
Consider longs only if price holds 4,300 - 4,330 and prints a clear bullish reaction.
Stop Loss:
Below the VAL support zone and local swing low.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,420 - 4,450
TP2: 4,520 - 4,560 Sell POC
This setup is valid only if buyers defend value support. The upside target remains limited unless price accepts above the Sell POC.
Scenario 3: Breakdown below VAL
This is the bearish continuation scenario.
Entry:
Short becomes valid if price breaks below 4,300 and fails to reclaim the VAL zone on retest.
Stop Loss:
Above the failed retest structure.
Take Profit:
TP1: 4,100 monthly support
TP2: 3,880 - 3,930 deep trendline support
TP3: Lower liquidity only if momentum remains strong
This confirms that gold is accepting lower prices below value.
Final view
The short-term bias remains cautious to bearish while gold trades below the Sell POC and descending trendline.
The main battlefield is the VAL zone around 4,300 - 4,330. If buyers defend it, gold can retest the Sell POC. If not, the market opens the path towards 4,100 and potentially 3,900.
The plan is simple: sell confirmed rejection at the Sell POC, buy only confirmed reaction at VAL, and avoid forcing trades in the middle of the range.
Confirmation first. Prediction second. BTC Is Testing The Most Important Line In Crypto Right NowBTC 3D timeframe.
SVP is stretched from the bear market low to the bull market high, and we can clearly see where price is reacting. This is the VAH, and it is fair to say this is currently one of the most important levels in crypto.
Holding this support and pushing higher from here could signal continuation, or more precisely the beginning of a new upside move. I intentionally do not want to call it a new cycle yet.
On the other hand, closing back inside the value area and then confirming the VAH from below would be a clear bearish continuation signal. In that case, the next major targets below are the GP, POC, and VAL.
Verdict: BTC is sitting on a major macro decision level. Above the VAH, the bullish structure can still be defended. Below it, especially after a failed retest from underneath, the chart opens the door for a much deeper move into the value area. Leading Indicators vs. Order Flow: Analyzing Volume DistributionIn the contemporary landscape of technical analysis, a profound structural shift is occurring in how market participants interpret price action. For decades, retail trading was dominated by mathematical oscillators and moving averages, tools that process historical price data to project potential future directional moves. However, in the high-frequency trading environment of 2026, these traditional leading indicators are increasingly viewed as lagging representations of a deeper reality. Modern market technicians are shifting their focus toward the immediate catalysts of price movement: volume distribution, order flow, and price imbalances.
This evolution in analytical methodology alters how traders evaluate the very infrastructure they use to execute their strategies. A trading environment is no longer judged merely by chart aesthetics, but by its capacity to stream raw transaction data without distortion. Within this framework, institutional execution platforms, including those monitored via user updates like goldmanncolimited, are scrutinized based on how precisely they reflect incoming market volume during pivotal trading sessions.
The Structural Reality of Order Flow
Price does not move because an oscillator enters an overbought or oversold zone; it moves because of an immediate asymmetry between market buy orders and market sell orders. Order flow analysis allows a trader to look inside the daily price bars to see where transactions are actually occurring. When a significant institutional participant enters the market, their activity leaves footprints within the volume profile rather than on a standard trend line.
Understanding this flow requires distinguishing between passive liquidity resting in the order book and aggressive market orders that actively consume that liquidity. When aggressive buying outpaces passive selling, price ascends. For a market participant utilizing advanced charting layouts, tracking this relationship in real time provides an objective view of who is controlling the auction, rendering static, historical price indicators largely secondary.
Volume Profiles and Price Imbalances
A central component of modern order flow trading is the identification of price imbalances, often referred to as fair value gaps or inefficient pricing zones. These anomalies occur when a rapid influx of aggressive orders sweeps through multiple price levels so quickly that the auction mechanism fails to establish a two-way trade. The result is a visual gap in the volume distribution profile a zone where only one side of the market was filled.
These imbalances serve as critical structural magnets for subsequent price action. The market routinely exhibits a tendency to auction back into these inefficient zones to seek equilibrium and fill outstanding passive liquidity. Recognizing these clusters allows traders to anticipate potential reaction points with a higher degree of accuracy than traditional support and resistance lines provide. However, mapping these precise zones demands absolute data integrity from the terminal feed.
Data Consistency and Platform Evaluation
As market participants move away from mathematical abstractions and closer to raw volume metrics, the demand for pristine execution quality increases exponentially. If an infrastructure introduces even minor latency or aggregates volume data incorrectly, the resulting imbalances and profile clusters displayed on the chart will be fundamentally flawed, leading to poor risk calculation.
This critical reliance on data accuracy is a primary driver behind contemporary platform research. For example, steady search interest in specialized phrases like goldmanncolimited reviews typically indicates an analytical community evaluating the actual operational stamina of a network. Serious traders look for consistent data delivery across fast-moving sessions, stable API connections for algorithmic execution, and transparent trading conditions that ensure order routing behaves predictably when liquidity pools are challenged.
The Integrated Analytical Framework
The transition from speculative leading indicators to volume-centric order flow does not imply that classical technical analysis is entirely obsolete. Instead, modern market structure requires an integrated approach where traditional chart patterns are validated or invalidated by real-time volume distribution and structural imbalances.
Ultimately, understanding the mechanics behind the chart is what separates systematic trading from pure speculation. By focusing on the continuous interaction of aggressive order flow and passive liquidity, and ensuring that this interaction is supported by a robust, reliable, and high-performance infrastructure, traders equip themselves to navigate modern financial markets with a structural clarity that no lagging oscillator could ever provide.
