Stocks are vulnerable to a 5% 'air-pocket drawdown' as greedy traders short volatility.
Tuesday's stock-market pullback on February, 13 after a hot inflation report actually showed us something else about the market.
It turns out that it did… an overcrowded short side of the options market which was reminiscent of the 2018 and 2020 'Volmageddon'...
Last time we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on February 06 (see chart below), we caught its exact price action up until the current high:
It didn't affect the stock market though up until last week but the price is already approaching peak values. The long-term pattern has been a Channel Down since the September 28 2022 High and every Lower High since...
When we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on our November 07 2023 analysis (see chart below) we compared it with the S&P500 index (SPX) :
The S&P500 has reached the top of its Channel Up, while the VIX bottomed and is consolidating on a price action that is very similar to the July 27 2023 Low, which was the former Higher High of the S&P500 Channel...
The Volatility Index (VIX) is trading within a Channel Down pattern since the September 28 2022 High, which has also been the start of the 2023 recovery year for the stock markets (SPX illustrated by the thin black trend-line). Being negatively correlated in nature, when VIX declined within this Channel, the stocks rose and vice versa.
Since October 23 2023, VIX...
Memorial Day (originally known as Decoration Day) is a federal holiday in the United States for honoring and mourning the U.S. military personnel who have died while serving in the United States Armed Forces.
For nowadays, it is observed on the last Monday of May, and this year it is observed on May 29, 2023.
Memorial Day is considered a U.S. stock market...
The stock market just flashed the first sign that investors think the Silicon Valley Bank crisis is over.
👉 The CBOE Volatility Index VIX closed below the 20 level on Wednesday, for the first time since SVB - The Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.
That is basically could be a constructive sign and is certainly counter to the general gloom of investors post...
es1! puts have been lining up for a pump in vx1! and this is captured in uvxy hourly as a bullish engulfing in reversal in red territory sss candles. as long as we hold hourly lows vix and we cross above pivot turning sss signal green and printing a qqe long upper horizontals are in play.
Watching channel curious if we start to base around 16? if we loost the channel or continue this higher.
note the Vix vs Vx1! Price difference.
also not eRsi around 41 seems to be a goo buy indicator. suspect things might get whippy.
Peak Volatility in the near term.
This is not about elections.
This is not about COVID.
We are in the midst of a Global Insolvency Crisis.
Bills are due...
Has been consolidating in green area following bear flag in July. Could see a turn here, but will only get something of significance if clear 200dma
$TVIX $UVXY $SVXY $VXX $VX_F $SPY $SPX $ES_F #Trading #Stocks #Volatility 💥
Has held up recently, but looks to have formed a bear flag. Lower bolli opening. Implies equities have more upside in near-term. 36 has acted as resistance the past month
$TVIX $UVXY $SVXY $VXX $VX_F $SPY $SPX $ES_F #Trading #Stocks #Volatility 💥
