This market Can go much lower but could bounce on these levels before it go lower.
VXX, VIX, TVIX, VIXY, etc all consistently banging against a descending diagonal trend line, meanwhile also printing an inverse head & shoulders pattern. A break above neckline or DTL suggests a massive move higher for volatility, which spells trouble for equities and indices.
EARNINGS BIDU (97/55) announces earnings on Monday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of the New York session ... . Pictured here is a September 80/120 short strangle paying 1.65 as of Friday close with delta/theta metrics of 1.57/8.07. You can naturally go defined risk, but you'll have to go in a smidge tighter with the shorts to...
VXX always decays. The best time to short it is when when VIX has temporary jumps.
A real quick and dirty here between checking off items on the honey-do list ... . Here's the cream of the crop: ROKU (83/94) announces earnings on Wednesday after market close and with rank/implied greater than 70/50, it's an ideal play for volatility contraction post-announcement. The pictured setup is a September 20th 75/80/135/140 iron condor, paying 1.67 at...
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... for a 1.35/contract debit. Metrics: Max Profit: $165/contract Max Loss: $135/contract Break Even: 21.35 Delta/Theta: 21.16/.55 Notes: I don't take long vol product positions very often, particularly those subject to contango erosion and/or beta slippage, but with the market at ATH's and the VIX at lows, taking a small shot here with better than risk one to...
Earnings numbers will most likely be disappointing. Vix has been sputtering up and down, and china trade talk developments are not making any progress. Market looking pretty toppy right now. NOT FOR THE FAINT OF HEART.
$uvxy $vxx $tvix $vixy I like the vix down here- it will most likely have more downside as this rally attempts to push higher.. Volatility is coming in my opinion. I'm also looking for weird behavior or divergences (i.e. the vix & market moving up together).
Trade talks never work out, seems like it's all smoke and mirrors. SCMP doesn't seem to be expecting much. We like this right now close to 20 for a short term swing. Entry 1/2 as usual.
I am a believer that this bear market is not over. seems unlikely to me that the longest Bull market is followed by the shortest Bear market (I stole that). Since the advent of QE and massive Central Bank stimulus programs Volatility has been suppressed significantly. Technically the VIX volatility index at ~$18 is a buy in my books. Got in last week just below...
Looks go down to last resistance 17.34
FUTUROS NASDAQ APERTURA CLAVE DIA VIERNES YA QUE ALCANZA TARGET DE HIPOTESIS MOVIMIENTO CONTRATENDENCIAL EN ABC EN 6771 PTS. POSIBLE AJUSTE DE IMPORTANCIA INMINENTE PARA NUEVO MOVIMIENTO BAJISTA, ENCARADO POR ACCIONES DE ALTA PONDERACION.
VIX formed a massive bull wedge from Dec 24->Jan 19 highs, but the breakout has not been sustained, and it has struggled to maintain DTL support. It's also forming a bear wedge that could result in a massive breakdown. Target 16-17.
Since Christmas Eve 2018 we've seen a vicious rally from the lows. On December 27th, I called for a rally to 2625 before I would try getting short again. Unfortunately, the pain trade has been on as nearly every technician called for resistance in the 2620-2630 S&P levels and my subsequent short call was stopped out. Now that we've seen overall market...