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Don't make it complicated for yourself - Volume & Delta toolsOk, don't think this is about Bitcoin. This is just a good use case for these types of tools. All of which you can find for free here on @TradingView People tend to not really understand some of these tools, maybe they get the idea but not the real value. For a long time, I used to trade footprint charts, volume delta and seeking more and more info. Now if you don't know what a footprint chart is, don't stress. Footprints are like looking inside a candlestick, it gives you both the buys and sells of each candle. That's about as much as you need to know. So why don't everyone use them? that is a complex question to answer, but in simple terms. There is no need. By following rule based techniques such as the mechanical trading system I shared in recent posts; Ok, so let me show you something. Take the simple volume tool (I have also added a CVD) more on this later. But with a quick glance, we can spot the price rising and volume dropping off. This is called Divergence. As you can see price then carries on up and the volume and CVD tools start printing a different story. Again, not an attack on Bitcoin (I know how precious and defensive some of you get). This is for any instrument. Here's another little technique; there is a pattern known as a master pattern. It's a dumbed down Wyckoff. But basically after accumulation or distribution, you see an expansion phase. This is often called a UTAD or a spring (depending on the direction) I have shown this with the PoC as the main auction area. The consolidation - also known as fair value is an area where a lot of buying and selling took place. After expanding to roughly equal distances either side of the consolidation. The price will test the PoC or middle of the auction zone again. However, where people fail to see the obvious. IS as simple as understanding the CVD and volume story. We could add other tools such as the AVWAP. You can see price rotates around the auction area. Zoom out; Here we see price drop below the blue "Value area" meaning it has dropped and is likely to rotate back to the underside of the above auction area. This we can say is a re-test. So, let's assume we rise - obviously buyers will be buying the dip. After a retest. There are even more clues as to where price will seek liquidity. For this, see the volume profile. Now, lets add another technique. This is known as internal and external liquidity. We took out prior bullish liquidity (external) then moved back internal. Price will likely seek the next leg higher, but remain internal. All before seeking external, Bearish liquidity. Here's a simple picture of highs and lows that turn into lower highs and lower lows. To get a clear read on this; we will need the price to break one of these two levels. Once we do, we have confirmation and a bias as to what pool of liquidity will go after next. But... Is there something that gives an early clue? Well yes. Look at the CVD. You see, this doesn't have to be all that complicated. Market will seek liquidity, markets don't push up and up forever. There's a saying in this space, if you can't spot liquidity, then you are the liquidity. Stay safe all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
Very useful techniques to learnI have recently posted several posts around mechanical and simple charts. This is another insight into some professional techniques that are not often shown. Gann talked about High and low candles and opposing ticks. Lowest Tick of the Highest Bar: This refers to the lowest price point (or low tick) of the highest price bar (or highest price period) on the chart. It indicates a crucial support level. If the price falls below this point, it may signal a downward trend or a breakdown. Highest Tick of the Lowest Bar: Conversely, this refers to the highest price point (or high tick) of the lowest price bar (or lowest price period). This represents a key resistance level. If the price rises above this level, it may indicate an upward trend or a breakout. Here's an image showing this in an uptrend. And another for a downtrend. Then what you would expect from this, would be a move similar to this and of course you can't expect it every time. But to appreciate it, you need to understand the logic as to why this is important in the first instance. The simple explanation of that is in an uptrend that lowest tick of the highest bar was in fact the exact area buyers failed and sellers took control. Obviously, the inverse is true of a downtrend. The highest point of the lowest candle, means buyers are back pushing prices higher. Into the future you MIGHT but not always see these levels as support or resistance. When you overlap this with the mechanical techniques, you can use this for range entries. Here's a post on mechanical techniques. ========================================== Second tip is to do with volume. Many people seem to have volume on their chart, but don't really know how to utilise it. Now, imagine the areas I mentioned in the first tip. As price nears these zones (other other zones) order blocks, supply or demand, fib levels. If you could quickly identify what story volume is trying to tell you. Then there is a huge benefit to know how you need to react to the price action. In this image; Look at the spikes in volume until the orange arrow point. What you can see from this next image, is the orange arrow is the turning point. For it's next stop after breaking through the PoC of the range from the prior low to its high. You can draw a line, extended from the highest tick of the lowest candle. Price comes back, and as explained in the example above. Buyers step back in and drive the price directly away from this level. Now; let's go one step further. In this image I have the volume profile on the left representing the swing low to high and then the profile on the right from that high to the fresh swing low. You can see from the sell side pressure where price has interest to both parties. Next you have both lines drawn on the chart of the opposing candles, like this. Here. we can look at if the market is seeking outside or inside liquidity. However, if you look back at the volume on the bottom of the chart. Are we seeing green candles and volume increasing? or red candles with volume increasing? This is where the second tip becomes very, very useful. If you can identify the phase of internal or external, areas of interest. You can confirm this with volume clues on the chart and you will find yourself on the right side of the trade more often than not. Have a great week all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
A simple way to view multi time-frame analysisHere's another area many traders struggle with. The real value in using multiple timeframes is to know what to look for and when to look for it! As I have mentioned in a lot of my posts, all of this comes back to Dow theory; you don't need to make life hard on yourself. instead, simplify your approach and align a small number of timeframes and you will be surprised at the results. Let me give you an example; In this image above, you can see a clear push-up and a high, then a pullback. Why not use this high? It had a clear change of character to the downside. Well, the answer is - you would view these as separate timeframes. Although they are viewed on the exact same timeframe as my image. One you could call a primary trend and one a secondary. For a bit more depth, see this post. If you are already familiar with the idea, then the next thing you want to understand. What phase is the primary trend in? This becomes important as you drill down to the entry timeframes, as what you are trying to do is to understand a general bias. Once you grasp this, you can even trade the counter-trend moves (if you like). Ok, so with that being said. Let's add the second timeframe. As you can see, the orange line represents the primary trend, whilst the internal white path now represents the secondary trend. Why this is key, is because at this stage, the larger trend also could be doing one of two things. Going UP or DOWN. Up - Down - Once you understand the larger trend, the internal will work to facilitate the next leg of that higher degree. Of course, there will be reversals (but that's for another post). Working with an uptrend for the sake of an example; Price pushes up and then pulls back. If we know the ranges, I have covered this in several posts recently (mechanical). We can quickly identify the higher timeframe range. Once price breaks above this range, at some stage, you will expect to see a lower timeframe change of character, which is simply the start of a pullback on this higher timeframe. There are several ways to take advantage of this (again, another post). But working with this example. The first move above the range happened overnight or when you were not at your desk. You now have the information to work with the next phase. Assuming price is in a larger uptrend, you want to start to align these timeframes. This will be the case regardless of where in the move you are. These are only examples. This image above shows the trigger trend in alignment with the higher timeframe. This image below shows the opposite. Of course, there is more risk involved here as the bigger trend is going the other way, but as long as you acknowledge that, then opportunities will present themselves in both directions. Here's a few examples on where or how to use this. The second option is using the higher (secondary) not the trigger, but exactly the same concept. Finally, the third option is using all three of the timeframes. Firstly, you know the larger move is up. The second has started to align. Finally, the trigger trend (the minor) has it's change of character and you expect now the move to continue to the upside. This gives a higher risk-to-reward ratio and often it's a higher probability in terms of the outcome. For the simple reason, the two higher timeframes now agree. Some of the other posts connected to this one. Anyways! Take it easy. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
Where traders tend to failAfter 25 years playing this game, it is incredible to see the same issues today for new traders as there have always been. In a nutshell, OVERCOMPLICATION!!! New traders will often go looking for as much information as possible, adding instruments, screens, indicators, timeframes, news feeds. Anything looking for an edge. Go back over 100 years and Charles Dow - yes, the same Dow behind the #DJI (The industrial average) laid down a very simple framework for understanding the markets. I have written several posts here on @TradingView about Dow Theory here's one of them. Inside this post, you will see this image. For some of you familiar with either Elliott Wave principles or Wyckoff Techniques, you might recognise some elements of an image like this. Both Richard Wyckoff and Ralph Elliott were onto something. But over the years these techniques have been "added to" creating hybrids and then assumptions are often made. Complex is key... Or so they think. When you try and trade an Elliott wave cycle on a 5-minute chart on some instrument that has not been fully adopted by institutional players, you are asking for trouble. Psychology is more important in trading than, quite possibly 99.9% of other aspects of trading. So whilst people tend to add to the technical analysis part of trading, they often ignore the psychology controlling the market. I am not talking about psychology in terms of simple risk management and high probability moves. I am talking about the piece of the psychology studies that controls the masses. Sentiment is one thing, the psychology that drives sentiment is where the failing and struggling traders simply ignore. I wrote a post - trying to add some humour. Here's a Simpson's post. ========================================= Let me give you an example; People tend to use simple off the shelf indicators; now when millions use the same tools. Why is it that 90% + of traders still lose money? Here is a snapshot of the MACD and RSI side by side. Now look closely at the price action. What additional info are you getting from these lagging indicators (rhetorical question). . Let's look at this in a simple way; no indicators, clean chart, Dow Theory in focus. When price moves up you will often see accumulation, then as price reaches it's next area of interest and starts to pullback (oversimplified) you will see, even on smaller timeframes as this is not always obvious on the same timeframe. a distribution pattern. Overall, the price action has created a simple Elliott Wave move from a zero point, up to one and pushing down for a two. Where this gets interesting, and simple... Is the psychology behind it, The momentum up is often created by early buyers (yes, state the obvious) these buyers have been accumulating. Then, as retail jumps in because RSI says so. The price pulls back. This is often deep into the zone it just left, retail often using small timeframes and tight stops - 5 pips, 10 pips. So you often see a PB of 11 pips (example) and you get that feeling of "why does it always hit my stop and then go in my desired direction"? The momentum from taking these stops, then goes on to create an impulsive 2-3 move in EW terms. This is stops becoming opposing orders. Thus creating momentum to break the high of the 1 move. New stops from shorts get triggered and momentum traders enter positions. All of which fuels a larger rally. Now, when you break this down. You can draw ranges and operate inside these ranges to know the general bias. And just like that, you are on the right side of the market more often than not. Here's a more detailed post on this aspect. To give an example here: The larger swing creates a range. An obvious high and low as marked in this image. Then as the move inside happens; Think Dow Theory; The market is giving a very clear clue. We just took out a fresh high and the market is seeking liquidity. That internal move will have a fractal move inside; let's call that a trigger move. Keep in mind, the larger trend does not change it's directional bias until it breaks the old low or the fresh high. Now, although the price does not have to. The price can pull all the way back to the low and not change the larger trend. Once you get to grips with this, you will stop trying to predict the market and instead work with price action. Less, really, is more! Have a great weekend!!! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
15
Gamification People don't trade for money, they trade for other reasons without realising. Many new traders, start with a point to prove. Although in the crypto space it seems to be "how to turn $100 into a Lambo" The issue is you know the majority of the comments will be from people that are way overleveraged on money they don't have. Then you have individuals who are successful in another field, and they come to trade, thinking it's easy and they can win here as well. The market has a way of humbling people quickly. Gamification is more to do with people who "need to be in the market" - more trades equals more wins and more profits. The issue is, well at least for most. Is that they dive in without really learning how to manage risk, actually no clue how to manage money properly not just the risk. I wrote this post back in 2021 - Click it to open. The psychology part of trading is the biggest thing most people seem to fail to understand. It isn't just about risk management, it's about how you manage your emotions, the ability to not jump into revenge trades and beyond all of that it's about reading the markets with an appreciation of what the gamers are looking for. Have you ever lined up a trade, you have your TP and SL mapped out, you have a clear plan - you assume your trading with an edge and you see an expected move like this? Yet, as soon as you enter you get a run. You see, when you are too focused on the game, you fail to read the story. Instead, you play each level as it's own map. I covered a topic of relevance here; This is about how you can structure the ranges, mechanically and take away the emotions and the guesswork. When you fail to spot the signs, it's like missing a power up in a game. The market often leaves behind footprints; these footprints help build a bias and in turn, give you more confirmation for each setup. In this post, I explained that many new traders go seeking a silver bullet; they look for more data, indicators, screens, and instruments to trade. I can't stress enough - less is more!!!! Trading isn't about hoping you can turn your last $500 dollars into a retirement fund. It's about winning big and losing small. Then you refine and adjust so the win rate increases and doing it all again next week, next month, next year. Now look at that image above and see the obvious when you zoom out. As clear as day you can see an impulsive move, followed by a corrective move. Instead of playing the game, try learning the map first. This will help 100% with your win rate, that will ease your emotional anxiety and put you on the right path. There are tools available today such as prop firms where you can reduce/limit your exposure, learn to trade as if it's a skill and not a game, and you will surprise yourself! Stay safe! Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
Shocking Pattern Tricks That Make Trading Them Easy!Here's another little viewpoint you might not have thought much about before. Trading patterns is more popular than you would believe. Some seem to think it's magic or some kind of secret. The issue is people tend to get fixated on the wrong things, such as the exact Fibonacci relationships and so on. Let me show you something to simplify the concept, regardless of the pattern. Example : You might have seen a Crab pattern? What you would then expect after spotting one on the chart is a move like this. But, have you ever stopped to think what the price action is actually saying? It has ZERO to do with Fib relations. Think of what the trend is doing I have covered the basics of Dow theory in several posts here. An example of such a post is here (you need to click the image to see the full post). Ok, Now you can see it's only part of a higher degree wave count. Let's add an example of liquidity and a range. Are you starting to see it already? Here's a post on the ranges... Change the pattern from a Crab to a Bat. Now look at it and logically what is the chart behind the pattern saying? Both bullish and bearish versions. What about the good, old head and shoulders technique? If you are unsure about the pattern, it's market something like this (examples only) don't comment something like "the levels are wrong" all of these were freehand to show the concept without accuracy. Looking at the H&S pattern - you can actually see the logic simplified. Again, if you don't know about internal and external liquidity, here's another post on the topic. What happens next is the internal structure changes, which then eventually leads to the higher TF change of structure. And if you were to follow either Fib levels or Elliott Wave counts you will notice the regular move internally looks similar. (marked in red). This post is just to show you an example and how obvious these can be. Once you learn the basics, you won't need the complex version to follow price and use this to your advantage. Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
Why the 95% failIt's no secret that over 90% of retail traders lose money. I am not talking about throwing some money into crypto and hoping for the moon type wins or losses. I mean actually trading and making a living from it. You see, when you start, you are hungry for information - what's the best course, who has the best strategy, what if I trade 25 instruments on a 1-minute timeframe. Surely more profits... After doing this for over 25 years, you get to see people come and go, sometimes they come back with a new idea and more funds to give the market. But overall, some of the core problems are - all the gear and no idea. Not only do people invest in screens, the latest hardware and of course the legendary Bloomberg subscription for 24/7 news. What about indicators? Has your screen ever looked a little bit like this? The issue with more indicators is the majority of them lag to price action, re-paint or are simply not needed. Then combine that with the lack of experience, and you are left questioning do I buy or sell if my RSI is up but the moving average just crossed down? You are not alone, most traders have been there if not all! It is hard enough when even the brokers and exchanges fight against you - have you ever seen a scam wick directly to your stop and bounce? What about the A-book vs the B-book? In an A-book model, the broker passes their clients' trades directly to the market. Essentially, the broker acts as a middleman, executing trades on behalf of clients in the open market. This means that the broker's profits come primarily from commissions and spreads rather than trading against the client. B-book, the broker takes the opposite side of the client's trades, essentially acting as the counterparty. Instead of sending trades to the open market, the broker keeps them internally. The next one that always tickles me is the 100% win rate strategy that someone automated and for a few hundred dollars, it's all yours!! Look, if there was a silver bullet, a 100% winning strategy you could buy off the shelf - we wouldn't have any other profession on the planet! The world's population would be professional traders. You know the saying " if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is". You see Elliott waves where they have no right to be. Simply no logic or using them on a tick chart and hoping for miracles. How about getting some financial advice from a spotty teen who rented a sports car for a video shoot this afternoon? Yeah, sounds like a good plan to help you retire young! ============================== So, how to avoid all of these things? Well, to start with, your tradingview chart, on a regular laptop or desktop with one screen, removing all the indicators and increasing the timeframe. Then you reduce the number of pairs you look at and get to know them. Treat them like a new language. Learn the character traits, how they behave around major news events, what happens to them if the dollar goes up or oil drops 5%. Don't treat trading like a game. Instead, treat it like a business, use hours that suit your lifestyle. Deploy proper risk management. Don't see it as a one trade one win type concept. Treat it with respect and profit from it weekly. You will find, when you learn to manage risk correctly, you care very little about markets going up or down. You tend to sleep with ease and a growing bank balance. The market has plenty of soldiers fighting on its side, and it does its best to recruit you to fight against yourself! In summary, less screens, less data inputs (indicators), less instruments, higher timeframes, ignore the influencers, Proper risk management and learn to understand there is no silver bullet. Trading is statistics and that's all it is. You can be very profitable with a low strike rate and a large risk-to-reward ratio. Or as simple as a 2% gain per 1% loss and a 50/50 win rate still makes you money! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
26
The Platinum BulletOver the years, I have posted a lot of educational content here on TradingView. Everything from Elliot waves to Wyckoff, psychology to Gann. I have been lucky as a trader, 25 years doing this you pick up a thing or two. But above everything else, what you realise is that trading is a mindset game and not a technical one. Many new traders try their luck. They are either experts in another field or simply successful in something else, or they come to the trading arena seeking wealth. Both tend to get humbled quickly. It is common for many new traders to put so much emphasis on the strategy, they overlook the psychology. You see, a strategy might work for someone, but you can't get it to work for you. This could simply be the time on the charts you lack, the timeframe or the instrument you are trading. The account balance or the fact you are not used to seeing 3-4 losses in a row. When it comes to trading, less really is more! Here's a simple one for you. Take the mechanical range post I posted. Now look at this; On the larger timeframes we can see clearly the ranges and the supply/demand. Then dropping down to the daily. This is where, the technical aspect becomes less important and the psychology behind the move shows it's hand. I have added volume and the AD line just to show how obvious this can be. What do you see? Well as the price goes up, the volume goes down, we know we took liquidity to the upside. So, if nothing else you would anticipate a pullback phase. Then you get the clarity. Price drops and then pushes back, yet fails to make a new high. Almost like the volume told you it was about to happen. Where did it pull back to? Adding a simple volume profile too, from the swing high to the swing low. You can see the majority of the sell off (PoC) happened at a specific price point. Price pulled back to exactly that region before dropping. The drop caused a local change in character and immediately took out the swing low - the last swing low of the leg up. (the real change in the trend). There is obviously more to cover than this, but that is for another post. Once you learn the way markets capitalise on the fear, the greed, the herd mindset, sentiment of the retail crowd. You can use the sentiment analysis in your favour. You don't need 6 screens, fancy indicators, there is no silver bullet or 100% win rate strategies. And no a bot won't make you a Billionaire overnight. If it was that easy, we would have no doctors, lawyers or firefighters; they would all be professional Bot traders. Simplify your approach, put emphasis on the proper mindset, psychology and risk management and you will do alright! Stay safe in the markets! Some other recent posts; Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
Simple Psychology Tips Using Volume for Better TradingMany newer traders assume that when someone says "psychology" in trading, they are referring to mindset. It is also widely believed that trading is about the BEST entries. Now, think of it this way. It is not about winning trades, it is actually about managing losses well to allow you to take the winners over and over again. You might think that a 3 to 1 risk-to-reward strategy is boring, you might have gone all in on your favourite crypto project. But what makes the difference between gambling and trading is actually very, very simple. So simple, in fact, many overlook it or simply ignore it. Most seek a silver bullet - high win rates and perfectly timed entries, then they overleverage and move stops on the one "good trade" they are seeking to make. Whilst doing this, they tend to overload the 6 monitors they have purchased to trade with a thousand indicators, which they don't really need. The candlesticks tell a story, volume supports that story. When you learn any technique from Elliott Waves to Wyckoff, they all have a dependence on volume - even if the correlation is not apparent. Look at this first image. Price had moved down since the vertical line, the AD line also moved down - sell-off, in full swing. But then volume starts to shift before the AD line starts to increase. Now, look at what happens next... As we move forward and the new vertical line shows where volume spiked, the AD line starts to decrease as the price continues to rise. This is enough of a story to start your analysis. We then get a move with a lower high formed. As this plays out, the sell-side volume rises, creating momentum for the short position. Look a little closer and you will see, that the volume on the move up just before the drop was also decreasing. Making a divergence to price. You might feel that the market is against you, or that the big players are single-handedly seeking your stops. But the truth is, the psychology in moves such as this one shown is where most retail traders either have greed that markets will only go up for ever or the fear that they are missing out on a market that only goes up forever. It is that herd mentality that generates the liquidity for the professionals. Losing 1% on a trade, is part of the process, risking 80%> on a single move will make you paper rich for about 10 minutes before the real losses set in. This is where the psychology and the basic techniques such as risk management and understanding what candlesticks and volume bars are telling you, will make a world of difference to your results. A/D line and volume are free on @TradingView and to be fair you don't need to overcomplicate it more than that! Stay safe, have a great weekend all!!! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
People don't like the truth! Let's be honest, people don't like honesty. They prefer ideas that affirm their own beliefs. When I read articles and posts from newer traders, it's often from a place of "all in" diamond hands and the notion that things go up forever. I've been a trader for over 25 years now, and the game isn't about making a quick buck, it's about making money over and over again. This got me thinking, the issue is when you deal with a small account you require leverage, small timeframes and of course the "shit" or bust mindset. If you lose a thousand dollars, $10,000 even $100,000 - what does it matter? That's no different than a game of poker in Vegas. The idea of being 80% in drawdown, is alien to me. The idea of one trade and one win is also a crazy notion. Instead of playing with the future, there is an easier way to work. This isn't about slow and boring, it's about psychology and discipline. 10% returns on a million-dollar account isn't all that difficult. Instead of aiming for 300x returns on an alt coin (due to the account size being tiny) You can make less of a percentage gain with a larger account size. In terms of psychology - the word " HOPE " is used, way too often, it's used when you hope a stock or the price of Bitcoin goes up, it's used when you hope the position comes back in your favour, it's used when you want your 10,000 bucks to double. This isn't trading, it's gambling. The truth is, it's not the winners that make you a good trader. It's the way you deal with the losses. Once you learn proper risk management, a downtrend in a market move is a 1-2% loss coupled with a new opportunity to reverse the bias. As a disciplined trader, the game is played differently. Let's assume you don't have $100k spare - prop firms are a great option, OPM = other people's money. Remove the risk and increase the leverage, all whilst trading with discipline. The market goes through many phases, cycles and crashes. You don't always need something as catastrophic to take place, but if you are all in on a position. You need to understand that losses can be severe and long-lasting. When everyone sees an oasis in the desert, it's often a mirage. You only have to look at the Japanese lesson in 1989, when the Nikkei was unstoppable-until it wasn't. For that short space in time, everyone was a day trader, housewives to taxi drivers. Everyone's a genius in a Bull market. Then comes the crash. The recovery time on that crash? 34-years!!! I have covered several aspects of psychology here on TradingView; When it comes to trading, if you are able to keep playing. It's a worthwhile game. If you are gambling, it's a game whereby the house often wins. Right now, stocks are worth more than their earnings. Gold is up near all-time highs, crypto, indices the same. All I am saying is if you are all in. Be careful! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
Internal and external liquidity Here's another mechanical lesson for you. In my last post I covered a mechanical technique to identify swing ranges. Rule-based, simple and repeatable. In this post, I want to share another little technique, again part of the mechanical series. But this time I want to talk about liquidity. Most traders talk about liquidity, they might even have a grasp of what it is. But most do not know how liquidity forms the sentiment and how that creates a type of algo for the market. You might have heard of Elliott wave theory. There is a saying along the lines of "you ask 10 Elliott traders for their count and you get 11 answers". But the point is here, when you simplify the concept, it's clear to see that sentiment caused by liquidity swings is what causes a repeatable pattern in the market. Let's take the idea of the ranges from my last post. Now after a fair amount of accumulation, this level becomes "defended" - the price will gradually move up until old short stop losses are tagged and new long entries are entered into. This allows the institutional players to open up their orders without setting off the alarm bells. Price then comes back from external liquidity to find internal liquidity (more on this in a later post). But then it looks for the next fresh highs. As the highs are put in, we can use the range technique to move our range to the new area as seen in the image above. Next we will be looking for an internal move, not just internal to the range, but a fractal move on the smaller timeframe that drives the pullback down. See this in blue. The logic here is simple; on the smaller timeframes we have witnessed an accumulation at the 2 region and as we spike up for 3; we will witness a distribution on the smaller timeframes. Wyckoff called this the accumulation, followed by a mark-up and then the distribution and a mark-down. It is this pattern, over and over again that leads to this type of structure. This will then be re-branded by various analysts who will call it things like a head and shoulders, smart money will see a change of character and a retest before breaking the structure. This is all the same thing - just a different naming convention. Again, I hope this helps some of you out there! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
Mechanical rangesMany traders will talk about things like "Smart Money Concepts" (SMC) and think they have found something new. The truth is, everything in trading stems back to Liquidity. There is no "Algo" nobody is out to get you specifically. The market is always right, where you position yourself is your own choice. I have written several posts on mechanical trading, recorded a number of streams. The more mechanical you can make the process, the less the emotions have a chance to kick your ass. Let me give you a very simple method of being able to identify the ranges. Ignore the timeframes as this will work on any of them, on most instruments. (I say most, as some behave differently due to how it attracts liquidity). Lets assume high end crypto such as Bitcoin (BTC) and of course Forex in the general sense, stocks, commodities etc. This is simple - only 2 rules. You start by zooming out and giving yourself a general feel for the trend. Let's say this looks to be an uptrend - we now need to understand the rules. An opposing candle can simply be defined by a different colour. If the trend is up (Green) and we see a red candle - then it's an opposing candle. The inverse is true, if we are down and the trend is Red. Then a Green candle would be opposing. This is only half of the story. The second rule is a pullback candle or even a sequence of candles. This simply means either the very same opposing candle that doesn't make a new high or low (depending on the trend up not making fresh highs or down not taking new lows). In this image, you can see we have in one candle both an opposing and pullback in one candle. This means we can now mark the high of the range. Working backwards to identify the swing range low. This easy method means I can draw a range exactly the same and mechanically every single time. Giving me a mechanical range. We could then get a lot more technical by looking for liquidity, 50% of the range or places such as supply or demand areas. But these are all for other posts. For now, getting a range on the higher timeframes means you can work down and down into a timeframe you are likely to want to trade on. These ranges will give clues to draws and runs of liquidity. This will also help identify changes in the character and fresh breaks of structure. Here's another post I posted on the mechanical structures and techniques. More in the next post. Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
Why does it always go against you? You might be new to trading, you may have several years of experience. But, where a lot of people still seem to go wrong is in not realising the relationships. I have posted hundreds of educational posts here on Tradingview from cartoons, trying to simplify techniques through to market relationships between technical systems such as Elliott Wave and Wyckoff. Many new traders fall foul of social media posts covering "SMC - Smart Money Concepts" and are not seasoned enough to appreciate what or why these can work for some and not for others. You have Elliott Wave traders, there is a saying along the lines of "if you put 10 Elliott traders in a room searching for a wave count you will come out with 11 different answers" This isn't to say Elliott doesn't work, nor Smart Money. The market seeks liquidity, it forms seemingly complex patterns that humans try to make sense of. We are great at that, seeing patterns even if they are not there. - Look, there's an upside-down butterfly 1.618 extension! First, you need to appreciate Elliott Wave counts on smaller timeframe are pointless, especially in the age of algo's and bots. However, sentiment on the larger timeframes can't really be spoofed. In this first image; you can see a market wave that is straight out of a textbook. Let's also add some Wyckoff; if you were to visualise this - Wyckoff schematics would be visible on smaller timeframes, the Green boxes represent accumulation and the Red show distribution. Let's overlay and Elliott Wave count - Take that to the next level, this count is only part of a higher fractal count. How does this fit into smart money concepts? well, it's more like - How does Smart Money fit into this? Elliott waves and Wyckoff have been around for over 100 years. Many of the techniques shown on YT video's today can be traced back to these older concepts. Now, if you can see how a 1-2 EW count pushes up for a 3. You can zoom in again and start to see what to expect when trading using SMC. In this image you can see a drop, then a gap as price pushes back up (I haven't bothered drawing wicks for simplicity assume their inside the box) Many traders would now anticipate a move that looks something like this. Only to see price do this Yeah - you're not the only one! The next issue is where and how Supply and Demand is drawn. Ok, the gap didn't hold, it must be the demand level there. GO AGAIN!!! How did that play out? Trade 1, Trade 2 = What about now? Price holds the support This time you are afraid to go in. Then one of two things happens. 1) Or 2) In the first image, we can see a sweep of prior liquidity and that creates momentum for a move up. In the second image, price simply melts away. This is an easy fix. It all comes down to understanding what the charts are trying to tell you. People love to talk about how "Smart Money" is the banks and institutional players - how they are playing against you on every click of the button. The truth is, most people don't understand the market. When larger players enter the market, the can leave a pretty obvious footprint. In addition to that - they leave behind orders they had but were unable to fill. These orders they will be defended with even more buying or selling (if they need to), and this is the premise for a rally and pullback or a drop to pullback. Now, visualise a 1-2 Elliott Wave move. Why do you think 2 often comes back so deep? What would you expect the move from 2-3 to do? Powerful push, yes? In this image, the move that created demand is simply the opposing colour candle before the power play. The significant move pushed up (showing institutional involvement). Hence, a location they will likely defend. In addition to the push up, they pushed with so much money - it created a natural gap. This type of example doesn't always have to be a power play 1-5 up, it could be visualised on pullback moves too. Here's a great example recently on Euro. The demand candle 'buy before the sell" is clearly targeted on the way up. Price fails to close above it, drops, goes back to retest - sweeps and drops. If you were to zoom in you will see on smaller timeframes evidence of a Wyckoff schematic with a UTAD. Add a volume profile there. As the price breaks above, after it's pullback you can see an acceleration in price and of course the area has the PoC. Back to where people go wrong. They will see this GAP created and assume price will come back here to reject and go. However, look closer and the demand that started the move is very near that gap. Where is the juicy liquidity? PoC is another little clue. Let's take this to another level. In this image I have a range, using the prior high just to give the example in this post. We are in an uptrend = we just broke the high, we expect a Pullback. Where would that likely target? Zoom in again. This time I have added a fixed range volume tool. What do you know?! Anyways, once you get a handle on the bigger picture and understand the relationships, you can zoom into any timeframe you like - the game is always the same. Have a great week all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
3
Increase the difficulty level on yourself. Often, traders like to make things a lot harder for themselves than they need to. Everyone is seeking a silver bullet, truth is "less is actually more". Dow Theory is actually the Grandfather of technical analysis. If you have never heard of this, or even if you have and brushed over it, you are missing out. Some people will say things like "it's over 100 years old it can't work in today's market" Yet, humans have changed very little in those last 100+ years. Sentiment driven by fear and greed is where the secret is hidden. Let me explain by saying Dow theory has 6 "rules" (tenets). 1) Market Moves in Trends Markets have three types of movements: primary trends (long-term trends that last for years), secondary trends (medium-term trends that retrace parts of the primary trend), and minor trends (short-term trends that are typically noise). You will notice I used the weekly for the larger and the daily for the second. When I journal my trade setups; I simply use a traffic light system red lines size 4 for primary, then orange line 3 for secondary and green size 2 for the trigger phase. In addition to that, I mark the trends with 3 boxes and arrows pointing up down or sideways. The second rule; Each trend has three phases: Accumulation Phase. In this phase, informed investors start buying or selling, counter to the general market opinion. Public Participation Phase, more investors notice the trend after it is already underway, and media coverage expands, driving the trend further. (Wyckoff called this a mark-up or mark-down phase) Excess Phase (or Distribution): At this point, speculation is rampant and detached from actual value, leading informed investors to prepare an exit. This is where a lot of Wyckoff, Elliott and other tools such as Smart money concepts all overlap. Then, the 3rd rule. The market reflects all available information, such as economic conditions and sentiment. Therefore, movement in the market averages considers and reflects this information. (in simple terms, discount the news). 4) For a trend to be validated, different market averages must confirm each other. For example, the trend in the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. If one index moves to a new high or low, the other should follow suit to confirm the trend. (I like this one less, but in some instances it can make the next move very obvious.) Rule 5) The trend is your friend, until the end. Until you see a clear change in the direction, a market shift. The trend is still in play. This one, I feel most just can't comprehend. As you can see below, I have marked up the extreme high and low, I know both my primary and secondary trends are down. So now, I can use my EW bias or start looking for a Wyckoff schematic. (if I believe we are about to see a shift in the trend.) You can start to look for information for areas of interest, look into volume and volume profiles. The last rule. Confirming the trend volume expanding in the direction of the primary trend. For an uptrend, volume should increase as prices rise and decrease during corrections. In a downtrend, volume should increase as prices fall. In this example, the Fibonacci levels line up, the volume is slowing, the EW count makes some sense and zoomed out you can see a shift. Now, with all of this info - we could look at "areas of interest" We are in a demand zone on the higher time frame. At this stage, there is no trade entry, but if we were to view a change in the character we could simply take a trade as a pullback on the primary trend down. Something like this; You see, all you are doing is following the trend and taking a look at other tools, auction areas, fib extensions, an EW bias, and hints of a Wyckoff schematic. But under the hood, the 3 trend principle is a simple-to-follow process. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
Bitcoin Smart money part 1Here is a little post on why the SMC ideas are part of the bigger picture - I wasn't sure if these new video ideas are capped to 15minutes. Sure I read that somewhere. I'll do another video in the next few days either way. For now I think we are still busy going NOT FAR. Link to other post; Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
The Parallels of Trading and GolfAs both a Professional trader, but amateur golfer. recently tried to explain to someone the similarities, especially in the emotional side of golf and trading. I thought it might make an interesting article. Golf, much like trading, is a sophisticated blend of skill, strategy, and psychology. While trading involves navigating financial markets, golf requires skilful manoeuvring across challenging terrains. Both activities demand a strategic mindset, the ability to adapt, and the resilience to handle emotional highs and lows. The Right Club for the shot In golf, a player selects from a variety of clubs, each designed for a specific type of shot and distance. In trading, an investor uses different strategies tailored to particular instruments and timeframes. Just as a golfer wouldn’t use a driver for a close-range putt, a trader shouldn’t apply a long-term investment strategy on a 1-minute timeframe. The key is understanding which tools to utilise for the setup, whether it’s choosing a wedge to escape a bunker or a driver to blast the ball down the fairway. Different Scenarios Golf courses are full of diverse challenges, from long par 5s to intricate par 3s as well as those horrible 4s too long to drive, yet technical. A golfer must adapt their approach to the difficulty of each hole, just as a trader must respond to different market conditions. A poor shot on a par 5 might still recover with subsequent careful play, similar to how traders can bounce back from a loss with well-planned actions in subsequent trades. Success in both fields relies on adapting to circumstances while focusing on the overall objective. Remember there are 18 pins on a golf course, one bad shot doesn’t cripple the account (I mean, doesn’t end the game). Managing Emotions Golf is notorious for inducing a wide range of emotions, from the frustration of a missed putt to the euphoria of a perfect drive. Trading elicits similar emotional responses; the thrill of a profitable trade contrasts sharply with the despair of a loss. You ever notice that you take profits early and let losses run too long? Yup; not wanting the ball in the woods is the same, yet we still reach for the driver. Both golfers and traders must manage their emotions effectively to maintain focus and make rational decisions. Emotional discipline is vital; letting emotions dictate actions often leads to mistakes, whether it's over-swinging in frustration or impulsively buying or selling a stock. Risk management in either scenario. Learning and Improving Professional golfers continuously work to refine their swings and improve their game. Similarly, traders must commit to ongoing education and self-improvement. Doctors or lawyers don’t become professionals after watching one or two videos online. Neither does a trader. Analysing past performances, whether it’s reviewing a golf game or assessing trading results, is crucial for identifying areas of improvement and fine-tuning strategies moving forward. But only you can do this “honestly” claiming a birdie when it should be marked as a bogey is only cheating yourself. To Master the Art The pursuit of mastery in both golf and trading is a lifetime journey. Neither field offers shortcuts to success; both require dedication, practice, and resilience. However, the sense of accomplishment and reward from mastering a challenging golf course or successfully navigating complex markets can be immensely satisfying and still that one bad shot is soul-destroying. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
7
Smart Money and the why behind it I have used @TradingView for near enough 10 years now. What I like about the platform is the simplicity and the tools. I often get asked about things like strategy or other people's techniques - "What do you think of SMC or this guy or that guy" Look, when it comes to trading - Liquidity is something very little people understand. Gurus talk about it and draw pretty lines but still fail to break it down as to why it's there in the first place. "Ah it's where the big boys buy or sell" so to help visualise this lets use some of these tools here on Tradingview. Look at my first chart here; What I have done is jumped up a timeframe and placed a volume profile tool on my chart, then simply used the drawing tool to draw a squiggle around the relevant nodes. I then dropped back to the smaller timeframe and switched on a couple of indicators to help visualise where the liquidity is. if you look at the lines 15minutes and 30minutes both in green and cast your eyes to the right, can you see they sit just below (as price is coming from above) to those higher volume nodes from that higher timeframe? Let's use another tool here on TradingView; This one is called a fixed range volume profile. the two blue lines extended out are known as the value area high and low. Often this is set to around 70-75% but I like to reduce that a little. The red line is called a PoC or point of control. This basically means the highest transactional point of the range you fixed. However, if you look over to the left this time you will see two higher volume nodes (mountains) and therefore look at the 15m and 30m lines again with fresh eyes. In this next image I have increased the range and dragged it over to include more data. I could write full strategies on this tool alone. The first thing you should notice is the PoC has now jumped up higher. Think logically about this for a second. We are seeking lower timeframe liquidity down low and the area of interest and value is showing price was accepted up high. So, after grabbing liquidity, would we anticipate the price to continue down lower or come back to play in the accepted zone? This is where a lot of newer traders fail, especially when trading smart money concepts "SMC" for short. They fail to understand the bigger picture. Another little tool in the same box-set is the Timeprice indicator. Much like session volume this gives a pretty clean view and of course settings can be adjusted. I like the look on this one, it's very modern. But the real value isn't until you zoom in and zoom in and you see why it's called Time - Price. I'll leave that for another post. But continuing the theme of this post; look at the clusters of the time price indicator and note where the PoC sits on the 15m liquidity level. Then below the 30m liquidity is the lower side of the value area. Are you starting to see a theme? In this last image; I have simply highlighted liquidity to keep my chart clean. You will see candles showing the last buys before the selloff. Then a consolidation under the liquidity - this is basically a Wyckoff structure prior to a mark down move. We then drop into the liquidity pocket and here is where most SMC traders would be jumping long. We see a very nice little rally, then a large fast drop through the liquidity, this hitting many stops and triggering new short positions. which is why as these shorts get triggered, you anticipate the pullback - to what level? Well look left and the charts will tell you. I hope this has opened a few eyes - go away and have a play with these indicators on @TradingView and feel free to aks if you have any questions. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
Wait... Bitcoin handle of a CUP??? All new @TradingView tool which auto-detects the Cup & Handle Pattern. So on the weekly time frame.... See for yourself! I often post educational content and share info on the latest indicators and tools. Here on Tradingview, we can see this form on the weekly with an upside target to around $127,000. You heard it here first ;-) Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe. (Definitely don't take this as advice)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Mayfair_Ventures
27
So...Against popular belief, it is what it is. unfortunately, it's not where people want it to be. People want to think I am anti Bitcoin, or negative to the cause. Again, this could not be further from the truth. I'm just one of the lucky ones in early and care very little what it does at the moment. It's clear people try to find bullish narratives especially when gone all in, but you have to remain a realist to make good money. Well at least over and over again. I've shared various posts and stream over these last couple of years and still not likely to win popularity contests or crypto influencer of the year when you don't have rhyme nor reason to scream for 100k with a silly face on each thumbnail. COT data still shows a negative LF sentiment - this is not big boys getting REKT, it's big players profiting at a premium (whose selling to the retail crowd?). I have spoken to some level headed players in the space; one of which was Ryan at Uncomplication and we spoke about why the options would be good or bad for the short-term. Kind of kike an "if this, then that outcome". As you can see from these options; option 1 and the preferred move would have been an extended accumulation phase. Thus giving enough fuel to take a real shot at the moon. I also shared posts about the interesting movements down low, prior to this move up. Now the issue for option 2 or 3 playing out was the limitations to the upside without a run on lower liquidity. So again, not needing to visit 12k or 9k - just to grab stops and cause serious doubt is enough in situations like this. You might have already seen the Wall Street Cheat Sheet; These things are as old as time. As option 1 didn't play itself (we did not accumulate enough) the move up has all the hallmarks of a larger degree corrective. Hence, in the ideal scenario; we would have seen a pullback allowing "fair value" to be accumulated, instead the CVD showed an existing positive position meaning profit taking up high. Thank you by the way. This move would have been on the cards & the chances are we could be. However, the concern and issue is this caps the upside on a colossal scale to a little over 100k before a very, very long term corrective kicks in. Still waiting on $135k as every influencer and their dog screamed for. Yup, still waiting from Nov 21, 22, 23 and nearing 24. The question you need to ask, is after 12 ETF approvals and retail screaming MASSIVE Net-inflows, we just had a halving and of course the golden price multiplier. So the question is; what's pinning it down? where is the lead balloon? Option 2 we talked about was if the price had created a classic ZIG-ZAG corrective move; 48-52k would have been optimal. The reason this was worse than option 1 was it means a longer time in limbo. Now option 3 paints a combo of the two as you technically have either a weak move impulsive up leading to a long corrective or a corrective B giving a running flat B hence another slow burner down before some real momentum can be had. I covered every major move over the last couple of years, now it's becoming more institutional it's only time. Just because retail wants 100k tomorrow, doesn't mean it has to play ball - especially not in the timeframe majority of retail want it to happen. I think the move needs a natural play both ways here; now we have massive liquidity sitting lower and of course a lot of eager, anxious buyers higher. COT is a big telltale sign for me. I also covered and published the move options in the book' So when I say, nothing has changed. It means since talking about this the first time - we are still playing out the worst of the 3 options so it seems. I'll finish with - 12 ETF's x Price Multiplier + Halving = WHY NOT $1 million yet? Take it easy and see you on the next post. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
15
New Volume Footprint option on TradingViewHi all, This is the first (stream replacement) educational video with a very quick overview of volume. Tradingview just released the new Footprint Beta tool. It's something I asked them for a long time ago, so I am glad it's finally here! In this video I cover the time-price-opportunity tool as well as visible and fixed range. Leading into footprint. This is not a deep dive, it's more an intro to and how these things come together. If there is enough interest in this idea I will create a sequence based on trading volume in depth. Thanks for watching! See you on the next stream/idea.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
Making your first million is the hardestAfter that, it's leverage. The issue for me as a long-time trader, is people these days don't seem to have time, patience or the ability to absorb information. They read an article or watch a few seconds of a stream and assume they know! I am not just talking crypto, I mean in general. The attention span of a fish. I read a pretty decent article by this guy @holeyprofit He talked about Bitcoin Mania with a lot of truth, most people won't want to hear. Article here The issue is the whole market right now are currently hinging on or near their all-time highs, Gold, Bitcoin, SPX (S&P500) stocks such as Meta, NVIDIA and loads of others. Instead of shouting for even greater highs, the question should be "what is sustaining the rally?" For the majority of retail traders, they assume it's different this time. Gamestop was up until it was not. The issue is that they never learn. They have no concept of time factors and the assumption that markets only ever go up is the very reason the majority of traders stay broke. Crypto is a really interesting space, when I first got involved in 2011, it was a punt. I got lucky, but buying cheap and selling high is what most people strive for. Yet, reading posts and social media content - nobody sells, they all buy low, stacking sats when the price drops. So where is the profit? Well paper gains I assume. Game stop... Not to focus on Crypto; the markets as a whole can be profitable and just like Kenny Rogers said - "if you're going to play the game boy, you got to learn to play it right. know when to hold, know when to fold, know when to walk away and know when to run" Every hand's a winner - every hand's a loser. Key message there!!! Trading vs investments - if you are looking to make it big on one deal, that's different than profiting from the market every week, every month and every year. Risk management is key, scaling your account, cutting losers quickly and adding to winners. Many won't understand this concept. Markets go up and everyone is a genius in a bull market. Once you start scaling an account, the trade percentages in terms of rewards you seek don't matter the same. You don't need 10x returns on your thousand dollars. A 3% win on your million-dollar account is a different game. Back in 2021; I wrote this educational post about the psychology of the markets. I used the Simpsons as a way to get the message over. Markets breathe and the rise and fall, rise and fall. Once you realise you can take from the market consistently, you will see the stress disappear, and the care of price up or down matters less. Your investment criteria changes and the scope gets wider. This is how you scale from that first million, into the second and third. Not having all eggs in one basket and hope it goes up forever. What if gold drops 10% and you are long? can you afford a 5 year spell on the investment you have? These are the kinds of questions you need to be asking yourself. What if Bitcoin's halving is a buy the rumour, sell the news and we take another 3 years to get back to a new ATH? "ah it's different this time" - yeah I heard all that in 2021 when certain influencers were calling for $135,000 worse case within a month. We are 2024 and still roughly half of the way to 135k?? I know for you guys who want to learn and progress you would have read this far; for those who "already know" they have stopped reading about 4 lines in and seeing a picture or 2. They leave a comment due to their keyboard warrior mindset and fish-like capacity for thinking. The point is to ensure you deploy proper risk management, especially here near the tops of a lot of these markets, trail your stop losses, and don't forget to cash out your profits. Paper gains can quickly become paper losses. If you're serious about money making, be prepared to diversify, be prepared to sit on your hands, keep cash in your pocket as well as be prepared to take calculated risks. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
4