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WTI OIL targeting its 1D MA50 at $84.00 minimum.Last month (June 30, see chart below) we gave a strong Buy Signal on WTI Oil (USOIL) right at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down, with our $74.00 Target getting hit rather easily:
The geopolitical fundamentals seem to align with the technical outlook this time, as this pattern can aim higher towards its Top (Lower Highs trend-line). Its most notable medium-term Resistance is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been intact since May 22.
Having also broken above the Inner Lower Highs trend-line, WTI eyes now a test of the 1D MA50, which can be achieved on a $84.00 minimum. The uptrend can even extend as high as $90.00 even before exhausting the Top of the Channel Down and a new sell opportunity may be considered.
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WTI(20260624) Today's AnalysisMarket News:
Deutsche Bank research analyst Michael Hsueh stated in a report that "the Fed's repricing, coupled with strong US macroeconomic data, is the main reason for the decline in gold prices." The bank has lowered its third-quarter gold price forecast to $4,300 per ounce, a reduction of more than one-fifth from its previous forecast, and adjusted its forecast for the last three months of the year to $4,800 per ounce.
Similar adjustments were made by Goldman Sachs. Last week, the institution lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500 to $4,900 per ounce, citing its judgment that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Threshold:
73.15
Support and Resistance Levels:
75.04
74.33
73.87
72.42
71.96
71.25
Trading Strategy:
If the price breaks above 73.15, consider buying, with a first target price of 73.87.
If the price breaks below 72.42, consider selling, with a first target price of 71.96. Short 
Oil bears are losing steam: A bullish reversal mMay be near!USOIL has gradually retreated from its highs and is currently touching the 73 level again. Although there are signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain below pre-conflict levels; moreover, it is currently peak season for oil demand, and the supply-demand imbalance remains tight, providing decisive support for crude oil.
Structurally, after the initial sell-off, the bearish momentum of USOIL is gradually weakening, coinciding with the key support zone of 73-71. If USOIL finds support in this area, bulls may gradually gain control and stabilize, potentially leading to a gradual rebound due to technical correction. Therefore, I believe that shorting USOIL at this time is unwise; instead, I think it could present a good buying opportunity!
Resistance: 80-82
Support: 73-71
Therefore, in short-term trading, I would consider going long on USOIL in the 73-71 area. Long 
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WTI Oil: The 3-Drive Trap? Why I’m NOT Buying the BreakoutXTIUSD 🌍
The macro narrative heading into this week is dominated by a fragile equilibrium between structural supply shocks and shifting demand expectations 🏦. While the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to trap nearly 10 million barrels per day, market chatter suggests that the "geopolitical risk premium" is starting to fray at the edges. Interestingly, general online sentiment is heavily leaning bullish, fueled by the persistent supply crunch, yet the recent hotter-than-expected April CPI data has introduced a hawkish Fed bias that is beginning to weigh on the long-term demand outlook. This creates a fascinating environment where retail is likely "buying the dip" on a supply story, while institutional players are eyeing the cooling demand and a potentially overextended structure.
We are seeing a classic example of Auction Market Theory in play, as XTI trades into a major structural resistance zone near the Value Area High (VAH) around 104.015 📈. The H4 trend has been decidedly bullish, but the "3-drive pattern" clearly marked on the chart signals that we are likely reaching a point of exhaustion. Widespread community chatter is calling for a continuation to $110, but the visual evidence of a potential ABC correction suggests retail is likely being trapped at these highs. From a Wyckoffian perspective, we may be transitioning from a Markup phase into a period of Distribution, where the "run on liquidity" above recent highs will serve only to provide the necessary volume for larger players to initiate sell orders.
Key Zone: The confluence of the Weekly VWAP and the heavy volume nodes between 101.80 and 102.26 serves as our immediate gravity well 📉. Notice how the price is currently hovering around the upper boundary of the developing range; a failure to hold value above the 102.26 node would confirm that the market is in a "Discovery" phase to the downside, seeking lower liquidity.
We are currently trading at the top of the monthly range, and I am watching for a 'run on liquidity' to sweep the late buyers I'm seeing across various social forums 🧹. The chart shows a clear "Bullish BOS (Break of Structure)" requirement before any new longs are entertained. If we do not see a clean break and retest of the channel upper bound, the path of least resistance remains a mean reversion toward the Point of Control (POC) and eventually the Value Area Low (VAL) near 92.40. My view is that the "crowded" long trade needs to be flushed before the next sustainable leg up can begin.
My Trade Plan 🎯
Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish (Short-term). I am exercising extreme patience as we sit at the "expensive" end of the value area.
Entry Protocol: I am looking for a rejection at the current resistance (104.00 area) or a failed breakout of the descending channel. Specifically, I want to see a Bullish BoS and retest of the upper range before flipping long; otherwise, a break below the minor support at 101.00 triggers a short entry targeting the 96.80 high-volume node.
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