XLE
LONG XLE Nice long here. XLE broke (purple) triangle bearish but saw no follow through as it got bid up from 35.30 support on 08/27. Huge support between 34.26 & 35.30 with 34.88 being the 50% retracement of Covid low to high of Covid bounce. This support area has held since early May and should continue to hold unless we see a significant sell off in the broader markets. Falling wedge (yellow) coinciding with this support also. Could really see an explosive move here, and accompanied with a hard 34.30 stop Risk/Reward is highly favorable.
WTI at pivotal level, key moment for the market Technically, CL2! is at crucial level as it is challenging a key resistance area, corresponding to 2018 lows. A breach above this resistance could have major bullish implications for oil prices and for the weak energy sector (XLE), over the coming months. Significant increase in oil prices could be seen as inflationary, pushing yield to the upside and increasing value stock appetite. On the other end, a failure to surpass those levels would call for the continuation of the underperformance of the energy compartment. We are at crucial levels. Stay tuned.
$USOoil is back near it's 1987, 2000 and 2003 highs and being rejected by it's 2015 multilows and 2008 low. may just range for years now between 50 and 15 $XLE $XOP
Tech vs. (Financials & Energy)Is it Growth versus Value or Tech versus Financials and Energy
EW Tech vs. (EW Financials + EW Energy)
Divergences from Growth vs. Value have been notable in the past
TSLA Short! Target: $1000 - $1200 NASDAQ:TSLA
It seems pretty clear based on valuation standards that many tech companies are significantly overbought. Over the past two weeks there has been significant capital outflow from the technology sector while there has simultaneously been large capital inflow into commodity markets, especially oil and natural gas.
Head and shoulders pattern forming on the 2hr and 4hr charts. Looks like a great short set up to return to the longer-term price trend.
I'm not a TSLA hater, I like Elon Musk, but I think this is a great short set up. Just an idea, do your own research!
𝗖𝗿𝘂𝗱𝗲 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $CL_F Daily. Nice pop today over 200dmaComing into a resistance area I expect to hold (42.50-43.70) for a pullback. Could be a large one in August which is also when seasonality flips
$USO $XLE $XOM $CVX $XOP $GUSH $DRIP $SPY #Oil #CrudeOil #OOTT 🛢️
OPENING: XLE AUGUST 21ST 32/43 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 1.56/contract credit.
Notes: Camped out at the 20 delta with break evens at 30.44/44.56. Look to manage at side approaching worthless or break even test ... .
XLE ENERGY SECTOR - bouncing from Channel lowsAMEX:XLE is seen to bounce off channel lows & wedge breakout.
OIL index at critical point: updateThis is a follow up from my April post. (see link below if interested).
The target I had has been hit. We had a reversal candle today so far. So check after the close.
The low recently touched but did not go below the level "a or 1"(754) . If it does near term it would likely indicate that all this the up action is a correction. If it does not and price goes above the current near term downtrend line then likely we have more up action ahead.
I trade this with the XLE ETF. I went long today. Personally I will use a close below 754 as my stop. Process your way.
THE WEEK AHEAD: BBBY EARNINGS; XOP, XLE, EWW PREMIUM SELLINGEARNINGS:
Next week's earnings announcements are light, with options liquid underlying to play for volatility contract even lighter.
BBBY (52/119/18.8%*) announces on Wednesday after market close, so look to put on a play before the end of Wednesday's session. Pictured here is a July 17th (12 days) 11 short straddle, paying 2.03 as of Friday close, 18.8% of where the stock was trading at 10.81. Look to take profit at 25% max or otherwise manage the trade by rolling out to August if it doesn't work out fairly immediately.
DAL (43/89/12.3%*) also announces this week on Thursday. A July setup isn't paying much, so I'd be inclined to go out to August to make it more compelling, where the 23/36 short strangle paid 1.83 as of Friday close.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK/PERCENTILE AND SCREENED FOR >35% IMPLIED:
EWW (37/37/15.0%**)
EWZ (37/56/10.5%)
GDXJ (34/53/14.6%)
XLE (33/45/14.6%)
GDX (28/39/12.7%)
XOP (22/57/16.3%)
USO (9/51/13.2%)
The most bang for your buying power buck appears to lie in XOP, followed by EWW, XLE, and GDXJ.
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (41/36/10.0%)
IWM is the only broad market exchange-traded fund where the background implied remains greater than 35.
IRA DIVIDEND GENERATORS:
EWZ (37/56/10.5%)
... and EWZ the only dividend generator with a 30-day greater than 35.
* * *
Broad market volatility has come in quite a bit here, but SPY 30-day implied at 27.2% isn't exactly a "low volatility environment" either. Nevertheless, it's not a bad thing to sit back, let powder dry out a little bit in preparation for the next volatility wave and/or more productive earnings announcements, particularly with underlyings like NFLX, MSFT, and IBM announcing next week, along with a number of financials: C (36/55), WFC (45/54), BAC (33/48), JPM (32/43), MS (30/45), and GS (27/41).
* -- Percentage of stock price the July 17th short straddle was paying as of Friday close.
** -- Percentage of stock price the August 21st short straddle was paying as of Friday close.
THE WEEK AHEAD: ORCL, CCL, KMX EARNINGS; XLE, IWM, IYREARNINGS:
I'm not really seeing anything at the moment that meets my criteria for good liquidity, high rank/high implied to play this coming week for earnings-related volatility contraction plays.
While ORCL (53/44/9.8%) announces Tuesday after the market close, 30-day's only at 44 with the July at-the-money short straddle paying 9.8% of the stock price, which doesn't exactly get my motor running for a volatility contraction play.
CCL (47/142/31.6%) announces Thursday. It has the right volatility metrics and the July short straddle is paying a whopping 31.6% of the stock price, but most are playing this for a recovery from a coronavirus beat-down. For what it's worth, the July 15th 17 short put (19 delta; bullish assumption) is paying 1.17 at the mid price with a cost basis of 15.83 if assigned.
KMX (60/71/15.11%) announces on Friday morning, but isn't the most liquid thing in the world, with the July 17th 75/105 showing bid 3.60/mid 3.80/ask 4.00.
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY:
XLE (55/61)
XLU (53/38)
SLV (51/38)
EWW (49/46)
GDXJ (49/63)
EWZ (45/61)
SMH (45/46)
GDX (45/41)
XOP (41/79)
USO (18/68)
Notes: I don't have any XLE on currently. The August 21st 32/48 (17 delta) is paying 1.76.
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (66/50)
EFA (42/36)
QQQ (41/34)
SPY (39/35)
Notes: If you're going to sell premium in broad market, small caps is probably the place to do it. Unfortunately, we're kind of mid-cycle here with July only having 34 days left in it and the August, 69, but if you're willing to go a bit longer with duration: IWM August 21st 113/159 (17 delta), paying 4.81.
DIVVY YIELDING EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS FOR THE IRA:
IYR (65/47)
EWA (57/44)
XLU (53/38)
EWZ (45/61)
HYG (45/26)
EFA (42/36)
SPY (39/35)
TLT (23/20)
EMB (23/18)
Notes: Pictured here is an IYR (3.51% yield) September 18th 65 short put paying 2.02 at the mid. I've been generally laddering out as an acquisitional play for the IRA, but July has only 34 days left, and there is currently no August (although there will probably be one post June opex), so a single September put would have to do.
XOM calls low risk high reward?$XOM is even cheaper now. If the market wasn't getting spooked it might be rallying. Could take advantage of the opportunity to scoop up cheap $XOM calls, which would allow you to have a defined max loss and could have really high upside. Currently sitting this one off due to my rule not to enter too many positions at once, but I like the risk/reward here...
Xle 4 hr chart Just a quick look. Ascending triangle perhaps failure is near. Or breakout. It seems to be breakout but we will see which comes first. Short biased
NG: Natural Gas futures gapped up switching to July contractNG: Natural Gas futures NG switched to July contract on May 26 at 18 p.m. gapping up to $1.93. Based on 4 Hr chart, resistance of $2.0 has not been reached yet indicating potential to go higher. MACD crossed pointing toward higher prices as well. RSI is at 60, which has been the level that capped the most recent rally at $2.0 (May 18 -22). Chande momentum is forming a "megaphone" pattern indicating some potential to go higher in the near-term.
UGAZ: Traded flat at $17.30 during NG gap up to $1.93. If $1.93 NG price is sustained overnight, expecting a gap up on the open for UGAZ, possibly up to $19-20 level.
Doing a little consolidation against the resistanceLooking nice. 10 is over 20 and 20 is over 50, and consolidating between fibs. I believe there should be some upward movement coming.
ENERGY SELECT SECTOR SPDR ETF ( $XLE 1D) the cup is full Everyone is well aware that the current state of the world economy is dire.
In my previous analysis I was following the price of WTI and USOIL (link below) but due to the MAY contract debacle the charts are now trash.
So, now to monitor the advancement of the recovery I will now use the Energy sector ETF XLE. It will not be a leading indicator as a transportation index would, but it can be a good indication of the overall economic activity or expectations.
The recent “crash” is what’s look like capitulation (high spread on high volumes). It could take time to recover. Maybe months.
On a daily time-frame however I identify a pseudo cup and handle pattern. Even if it’s not a full reversal on higher time-frames it can lead to a good swing trade.
The price is now retesting the neckline of the pattern ( 35.90) as a support, so it is a good entry point and a good way to manage risk.
Target 41.60 to close the gap then 47.41 last resistance.
The price made a double bottom several weeks ago.
Bullish div RSI
Let us see how all this will turn out.
As time goes by, I will keep you updated on the evolution of the asset price, so make sure to follow me on Tradingview
If you have any questions or requests, fell free to ask @Djio_ .
Disclaimer : This is not financial advice as I am not a financial adviser.
This is just my knowledge on what can be said and done from the chart.
Due to the volatile nature of the market, everything can change on a day to day basis.
Everyone is wise to manage their risk properly when considering any trading decision or activities.
PS: I cannot emphasize enough the risk associated with the activity of trading ETF due to the imaginary nature of all paper contracts, the reason why I prefer mainly trading cryptocurrencies instead of more “traditional” assets. On the other end without total systemic collapse it can quickly become a good trade opportunity .
Xle pattern I made a good trade to the short side sold early yesterday now back in calls for now looking at a 30 min chart and similar pattern as before. Gap down run up
