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XLE

THE WEEK AHEAD: TGT EARNINGS; XLE, XOP, EEM PREMIUM SELLINGEARNINGS: TGT (93/52) and COST (91/44) announce earnings next week, with a directionally neutral TGT short strangle shown here paying 3.87 at the mid price, delta/theta 1.01/9.64. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK AND SHOWING THE FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE STOCK PRICE: XLE (99/55), April XOP (97/79), April XMH (95/54), April FXI (95/40), May GDXJ (95/50), April EWW (95/43), April USO (91/48), April EWZ (90/48), April GDX (89/46), April XLU (88/26), June BROAD MARKET ORDERED BY RANK AND SHOWING THE FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE STOCK PRICE: EFA (100/38), June EEM (95/44), April IWM (88/42), April QQQ (83/47), April SPY (80/42), May FUTURES ORDERED BY RANK: /GC (100/20) /ES (113/40) /CL (100/51) /ZC (68/18) /SI (68/28) /NG (67/49) /ZW (11/28) VIX/VIX DERIVATES: VIX finished the week at a whopping 40.11 with the /VX term structure in backwardation, so it's an opportunity to add short call verticals or long put verticals in VXX and UVXY if you haven't already done so. For existing spreads (I've got a few), I'll be looking to play the elevator up/down game, rolling the long call aspect of my VXX credit spreads up to lock in profit on that side of the trade and improve my break even. In all likelihood, these will eventually require rolling out for duration come April opex due to the location of the short leg, but I'm fine with that. Pops can happen while you have these on, and you just need to be patient and make the best of them ... . GENERAL MUSINGS: For people who are into selling premium and who had large amounts of cash sitting on the sidelines, this is your "kid in a candy store" moment. Non-single name premium selling has finally become productive in that 45 day wheel house, even in broad market, where we were looking at going grotesquely long in duration last week to get paid. For those who had longer-dated premium selling setups on before this volatility expansion (points at self), well, I feel your pain. Be patient and mechanical, and some of that pain will inevitably give way to a volatility contraction going forward.
NYSE:TGT
by NaughtyPines
1
XLE - Short - pain continuationHi everyone, today I am reviewing. the energy index XLE on the weekly time frame. XLE seems to be following a 44 week cycle. XLE made a triple top formation from beginning of 2018 till about 2018 November ever since then it has got into a declining phase, consistently making lower highs and even lower lows. Price has recently breached the previous lows made in the end of Dec 2019, its probably confirmed my projections for a sustained downtrend. We can see that the downward trend line that we have drawn is now acting as a resistance of a barrier for price to breach. We can see the nuances of principles of summation as descibed by the legendary JM Hursts works in play. This we can be by price action, given the phases in which each of the short term, intermediate and long term cycle (indicated by green, orange and yellow colours). I maintain my short position on this ETF any upside a chance to go short. Look out for important resistance zones on daily charts to find an entry to go short. If you like what you see, please share thumbs up.
AMEX:XLEShort
by LoveForCharts
AAPL: Puts might pay off...I'm posting this one as an update to my broad stock positions outlook. For now I've moved to cash in all positions, and bought some energy, gold/mining/oil and added to my #Bitcoin holdings with proceeds. I also have some bearish bets in #AAPL, might be a good idea to reduce risk. My bullish posts for stocks might end up resulting in a failed signal, or maybe they endure a large drop before going back up over time. Be safe out there! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by IvanLabrie
XLE Ascending Triangle to be formed While the horizontal line continues to be drawn along the swing highs, and a rising trendline to be drawn along the swing lows, XLE is forming the ascending triangle pattern as a bullish information. The target could be taken at the horizontal line which also considered a resistance and a stop loss could typically be placed just outside the pattern on the lower band which is at roughly 58-59 levels. On the fundamental side, here comes the news as Supply threats push oil prices higher. Crude futures surged as much as 1.7% overnight amid threats to supply, but have now pared some gains, up 0.5% to $58.86/bbl. Forces loyal to Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar blocked exports at ports under his control, causing the National Oil Corp. to declare force majeure, which can allow Libya to legally suspend delivery contracts. Iraq also temporarily stopped work on an oil field on Sunday and supply from a second production site is at risk amid widespread protests. Besides , during 1/2 through 1/13 sessions, there were some bullish bets detected on the options chain that total valued around 1.32 million long calls strike from 61.21 to 65.21 expiring in Feb, March and Jun.
AMEX:XLELong
by Hunt-orbe-Hunted
1
THE END of the FOSSIL FUEL AGE?[MULTI-FACTOR Simple Crude Guide]Brief analysis on crude in 3 bullet points(chart will be updated continuously) ; Series on Commodities - 21st of November I do realize most people trade oil on daily frames. Oil prices heavily impact global growth, and this is the primary purpose of this chart. It's a necessity and it's essential to know the macro trend, even in trading. Before I get into the chart technicals, these are the few fundamental bullet points analysing demand and price action for the next 10 years: 1. Crude is expected to have an average drop of approximately 10% annually in demand going forward to 2025 (by multiple sources). This is nothing unexpected. Demand from emerging economies is still growing (India), however, more and more economies that are currently heavily dependant on crude are looking for alternatives (China). Overall, this should have quite a negative effect on crude . This can easily be seen by the performance of the whole energy sector(XLE): 2. Currently we are in the late cycle (Ref #1, Fed rates analysis) , and since the demand for oil is heavily cyclical, I am expecting that based on these current economic conditions- the global economy should linger until the 2020 elections, before something major occurs(arrows guidance on the chart). This is my investing tree for oil for the next 5 years for oil : ibb.co Geopolitical risks are included in the chart. 3. In terms of the supply, OPEC is certainly weakening. This implies that these countries have an incentive to push supply even further, i.e 2014. Moreover, crude production in the US has doubled. On the other hand, the rise of renewables as one of the outcomes of the last recession has been exponential. Nevertheless, we'll get to a point when lithium will certainly become too expensive . That's just how cycles work. My hope is that as the outcome of the next cyclical downturn, we will start focusing on nuclear energy, and develop safe and cost effective models (referencing small modular reactors here-SMR's) . Additionally, further enhancing the efficiency and use of other biofuels should be a must. To wrap up this oil investing guidance, it should be quite simply, since oil's correlation to the cycle historically is extremely high(depending on the cycle ~70%). There's evidence this has somewhat changed recently, perhaps because of the rise of renewables. The ESG trend should continue to grow exponentially . Nevertheless, oil consumption will never completely phase-out. The technical side of the chart is well labelled, it should follow the pitchfork, this is one of the better ones I've drawn so far. We are currently in a rising wedge, the outcome of the 2020 election should give a clue of the direction we're going. Currently it's neutral, leaning bullish. For the past 120 years, oil prices have behaved in ~29 year cycles, which would give us the bottom of the cycle at around ~2025. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated ! References and Disclosure 1. FED rates Supercycle : Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels.
FX:USOILShort
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
5
QUARTERLY XLE-ENERGY STRUCTURALLY DETAILED TA-2019 (+MACD/RSI)Safe to say that post 2014 (and even earlier) the renewables have become a serious competition to the traditional part of the XLE sector(coal/gas/oil). Crucial note: Breaking of the black trendline, could symbolize the start of a recession as this would mean that inflation expectation have decreased. In any case, this is just a brief analysis, everything is on the chart. There's really not much to say, XLE hasn't performed well in the last 5 years(blue text) compared to other sectors. >>If you liked this idea give it a thumbs up! Every follow is much appreciated!>> Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me.
AMEX:XLE
by step_ahead_ofthemarket