Retest and breakoutWLL seems to be breaking higher today! If above 30 very constructive for further strength.
XLE
Bearish: Energy Sector testing major $67 support levelTraders have reacted to this $67 level since June 2017 and now being tested as support. Intraday it's been broken many times but look for a break below to continue lower to $64 and $62 targets.
DXY Collapse Leads to Commodity RallyLooking like the dollar crossing the daily trend line is a failed rally. More down side to come in the very very near future.
USOIL Trend AnalysisIt would appear that the intermediate term trend is going through an ABC correction.
Supply Zone exists in the $53.50-$57 range
Long Term Price Support exists at $54
50% Fibonacci retracement exists at $54
Measured Move exists at $55
Channel Resistance exists at $62
Long(er) Term Price Resistance exists at $63
Short Term trend bearish
I'll go long when I hear "NEW BEAR MARKET FOR OIL?" on the news
Bounce Monday set upWell, at least not all sectors in out right sell mod coming into Monday. There is some hope the accelerated down trend will take a reprieve. I did for get to show XLF and XLB. They both are still lagging other indices. Bottom line XLU, XLK and XLE looking better. XLY, XLI, and XLV ugly. IWM looks best for a trend reversal Monday.
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Oil Bounce PlayWe've gotten some good price action around the 63.45 area. A close above the downtrend resistance line and this becomes a longer term Bull play. It's important to wait for a confirmed "Bullish Reversal Candle". I'm expecting a bit more downside before this Long play plays out.
Happy trading,
Charles
Crude $45 by April/May 2018Revising my $69-70 target down to $65-66.
My Original idea from July 17 - was Crude would reach 69-70 by late Spring early Summer.
Strangle on XLE (58% probability)With the strong move to the upside, I am betting that we are starting a new auction between 78 and the 71 levels. So with an Implied volatility Rank of 37, I sold a Strangle at the 30 deltas for a $1.36 credit. As long as the price stays between $78.35 and $71.65, we will be making money.
The Trade:
Short 73 Puts
Short 77 Calls
Credit $1.36 per contract
58% Probability of profit
Long XLE & Long Energy for 2018Long term bear flag but it should rally til Q2 or end of 2018 before heading down.
Some other energy names that I longed already broken out to the upside. Energy stocks are going to outperform oil in 2018.
RIGTriple bottom at all time low. Similar pattern to $KOL (coal etf) and steel/mining stocks bottoming last year.
Despite #oil breaking higher, no breakout on #energy ..$XLE still has some work cut out before becoming bullish. $CVX $XOM $OXY $SLB
