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XLE

XLE/ERX - Trend line attackI'm not satisfied with the performance of our XLE and ERX position. Sooner or later the rally will start here also... The more time we spend below the purple trend line the bigger breakout will come. On the 4th of April we broke above the trend line but lost it in a week. On the 4th of May we printed a new low in this decline on very high volume. Most probably that day was the bottom. If stocks are printing a correction during the next 2 weeks - unlikely - we might test back 65.82$... I think when we break above the purple trendline again that will be a valid breakout and the great rally in oil stocks will start finally. I will try to trade some individual stocks also. There will be stocks which will print 4-500% rally in the next 3-4 months. I think ERX also has a good chance of printing a 200-300% rally. All the indicators (MACD, TSI, SlowStoch) are showing a divergence. I'M preparing for 2 scenarios: 1. We are churning around the trendline for a few more days and breaking out 2. we test back the lows at 65.82$ and a monster rally is coming out of the double bottom. Nasdaq, S&P, Dow Jones at all time highs. I see zero chance that oil stocks will miss this rally.
AMEX:XLELong
by chartwatchers
27
Low Energy In Energy SectorThe Energy Sector SPDR Fund XLE has been in a defined bearish trend for all of 2017. Due to this bearish movement, the 100 day moving average (DMA) is about to cross below the 150 DMA. This actual event has occurred 15 times in the history of the fund and has a minimal drop of 0.263%. It has a median drop of 2.067% and maximum drop of 38.054% over the following 16 trading days. Although I typically write on events that have occurred, this event is likely and greater benefit could be gained by making moves earlier. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 40.2699. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the fund has been moving lower. The RSI has been trending lower since May 2016. Even though the RSI typically cycles between overbought and oversold levels, that has not necessarily been the case with this fund. Overall the RSI is failing to make newer highs which is another significant signal of downward movement. Only once over the past year has the RSI broke above this trend before immediately following suit and heading down. This overall downtrend should continue as long as the RSI stays below this trendline. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -19.3683. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund is down. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.7572 and the negative is at 1.0678. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the fund slightly moving up recently, but should begin its downtrend again. The stochastic oscillator K value is 21.2870 and D value is 19.7285. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the fund has been flirting with oversold territory for at least two weeks. Most likely one of two things will occur. The fund will continue to slowly move down with up days causing the stochastic to stabilize and rise even though the fund continues its downward bias. The second possibility would have the fund rise up and out of the downtrend either temporarily or permanently. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 3% over the next 26 trading days.
AMEX:XLEShort
by StockSignaler
THE WEEK AHEAD: EWY, FEZ, FXE, AND OIH/XOP/XLEWith VIX in another ebb and a paucity of high quality premium selling earnings plays in the making for next week with both high implied volatility rank and high implied volatility, I'm looking at exchange traded funds instead for potential plays. For instance, EWY, the South Korea exchange traded fund, makes sense in the current geopolitical environment, and its implied volatility rank and implied volatility reflect this, coming in at 55/22. It doesn't meet my usually standards of >70 and >35, but sometimes the market doesn't allow you to be picky. The June 16th 56/59/65/68 iron condor brings in .81 at the mid (not quite up to my usual 1/3rd the width of the wings snuff); alternatively, the June 16th 57/62/62/67 iron fly brings in 2.76. A drawback is that this instrument only has monthlies, a situation I'm not fond of ... . With French election finals on the horizon on May 7th, another play that makes sense against the backdrop of "news," is FEZ (Euro Stoxx 50) (49/21). However, I previously attempted to get a fill of an iron fly before the primaries, and it was quite pesky, particularly on the call side. Currently, I'm unable to get a mid price quote for the June 9th 34.5/37.5/37.5/40.5 iron fly or a similar setup in the June 16th expiry due to the fact that the long calls where I want to set up are no bid. With FXE (the Euro proxy), which I tend to play as I would play EURUSD, I would go directionally short. The background implied volatility is so low that it just doesn't make sense as a straightforward premium selling play since the contraction that's usually a feature of these plays is likely to be minor; moreover, I have a directional assumption in a tightening Fed environment versus a loose to easing ECB environment (bearish). There are a couple of ways to play it: (a) ATM short call verts where the break even is around 106 (e.g., the June 16th 105/108 short call vert; 1.20 cr; BPE 1.80; BE at 106.20), legging in small in the event it rips higher on a Macron win (currently, the likely outcome); (b) a call diagonal that gives you some flexibility on the short call side of things (e.g., a June 16th 107 short call; Sept 15th 110 long call; .07 cr; 2.93 BPE) without exposing you to downside risk in the event that the Euro caves in at some point on dollar strength or Euro weakness. Lastly, I've got eyeballs on oil. It's dipped somewhat dramatically off highs, so I'm looking at various bullish plays in OIH, XOP, and/or XLE, all of which track oil prices somewhat religiously. Currently, I'm still working an XOP put diagonal, but am amenable to getting into another XOP play. (Put diagonal: XOP June 16th 33 short put; Dec 15th 27 long put; .10 credit at the mid; 5.90/contract BPE; PMCC: XOP June 16th 37 short call/Dec 15th 24 long call; 10.82 db).
AMEX:EWY
by NaughtyPines
XLE for SaleXLE is in a larger uptrend from last February - it has pulled back to a consolidation range - there is large volume on the recent down move, these are buyers to me - this sector is lagging the over all market - we are entering seasonally bullish period for oil I'm a buyer here, now that can be buying the underline, leveraged buying the underline, or selling volatility in the underline. The way of getting long is up to the individual. This is not a short term position (multi year).
AMEX:XLELong
by UnknownUnicorn103267