Cyber MondayUp to 80% OFF

XLE

XLE BO:bottom@66,Support@76, next stops are 90/98/107BULLISH CASE: XLE held a June low @66 which is a 0.618 retracement. It formed a triangle & has since bounced off the base very strongly with 2 gap-ups. Moving averages 50, 100 & 200 are forming a ribbon & are all pointing up. 76 is a strong support with volume profile. If this breakout from the triangle sees a follow-thru in the next few days, XLE may double the triangle & target the next 2 Fib levels at 98 & 107 with some consolidation at the recent ATH at 90. Crude oil & Natural gas bouncing strongly. 10-yr rate TNX & dollar index DXY turns up & are also bouncing higher. BEARISH CASE: If this will be a false breakout, then the 2 recent up-gaps will be filled with XLE going back inside the triangle. Not trading advice
AMEX:XLELong
by xtremerider8
Buy Oil WTI - IMO should bounce on this L/T +++ Ascending Trend line Line - L/T Technical support from March 2020 lows. Using a weekly candle chart, Crude right on an upward trend line testing, using the March 2020 low. Crude should bounce from here current level having been tough to break over the last 2 years. Unless we are about to live a historical correction moment on Oil (liquidation/ news flow / Itan) the current price action set up is favouring longs here. As an aside we are also reaching a 50% retardement Fibonacci ratio level taking High 2022/ March 2020 Low. NYMEX:CL1!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ArisopeCapital
CRUDE to continue downward spiralCrude prices are oddly (well, perhaps not so) set to spiral down further below 80. Here is technically why it would... Light Crude Oil futures weekly chart show the recent consolidation around the weekly 55EMA, and that it appears to have broken down decisively, particularly closing at the lowest in the last 5 weeks. Technical indicators, particularly the RPM, suggest more momentum as does the weekly candlestick. The daily chart had a 55EMA failure with a large bearish engulfing candle that overwhelmed a decently large bullish candle the day before. This was followed by a down candle, completing a Three Outside Down candlestick pattern. As if it was not enough, a Gap Down was further followed by a candlestick that closed the week with a long top tail. The daily MACD crossed under the signal line and pushed further down into the bearish territory. Taken together, all these are simply pointing to more downside, likely to press below 80, targeting 70 towards the end of September. On another note, the USD appears to be technically bullish and pushing further up. Ceteris paribus , a rising USD usually pushes Crude prices lower.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
$XLE: Weekly and monthly uptrendNice signal in energy names. Macro and fiscal policy are sure making the Fed's life hard. The trend in commodities, energy, value vs growth remains bullish, same as the trend in the Dollar vs the Euro. The recent drop in inflation and oil created a very low risk buy opportunity in commodities in general. I've rotated away from my growth focused portfolio in the prior week, and am long $XLE and other names in my portfolio. I suggest you do the same, very interesting time, where the easy money disappeared from markets and people will likely get schooled time and time again trying to gamble in the same garbage names as between 2020 and 2022. Stay safe out there! Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:XLELong
by IvanLabrie
SPY Weekly review and forecast: August 22, 2022Last week brought the first sell side activity the markets have seen in nearly 6 weeks. The market digested comments within the FED minutes as being dovish, and was on track to extend the rally through most of the week. The tone changed on Thursday and Friday and the market was unable to hold the 4300 level. Most of the selling was precipitated by technology and the financials, while energy finished positive on the week. Volatility has also begun to expand as the VIX finished positive on the week. The weekly expected move in the SPY is also greater than last week's by almost a full point. SKEW closed flat-to-down week over week, but is still in an uptrend. SPY -1.16% (+/- 8.3) QQQ -2.28% (+/- 8.89) IWM -2.85 (+/- 4.97) ____________________ Technology -2.5% (+/- 4.09) Energy +1.26 (+/- 1.26) Financials -1.69% (+/- 0.83) ____________________ VIX: +12.19% (23.07; ~50% IV Percentile) _____________________ The rally we've seen since June has been impressive, so a pull back was going to come eventually. Its important to zoom out and look at the big picture perspective. The market may have re-entered the sideways channel I outlined at the beginning of the month. I'm looking for this week to have a mildly bearish bias, but most probably staying within the expected move in advance of the FED's Jackson Hole meeting (so think between 4150 - 4300 in SPX). I'm going to be keeping a close eye on the Bonds as well as Energy. If the Bonds continue to fall, it will be more fuel on the inflation fire. With regards to energy, stocks like XOM are at key inflection points on their Volume Profiles; selling in energy now would weigh heavily on the indices.
AMEX:SPY
by InnerMotionTrading
OXY spiked and started to break outHighlighted previously a couple of weeks ago, OXY just spiked 9.88% on Friday. The weekly chart shows some consolidation and then a two week bullish candle stack. The MACD crossed over in bullish territory and this bullish run has an upside projection target of >100, a good 30% from last trading close. The daily chart similarly has technical indicators turning bullish with crossovers in the RPM, and in the MACD. Clearly bullish... perhaps with some technical retracement, and then a relaunch and then a good break. Wait and watch for it! PS. in some ways, I wonder if this remotely has any indication that Crude prices might be spiking soon again... just wondering.
NYSE:OXYLong
by Auguraltrader
2
SPY Weekly review and Forecast: August 8th, 2022This week's action was largely defined by two dynamics: Employment data, and sector rotation. After initially selling off on Friday after the Employment data drop, the market reversed course and rallied much of the day before ultimately finishing slightly down on the session. Despite trade being predominantly sideways in an 80 point range, the market extended it's rally and finished up on the week. The range was the result of the aforementioned sector rotation. Tech moved into the leadership role as Eneregy, which had been leading the rally, sold off considerably. Stuck in the middle were the financials. Before looking ahead, here's a snapshot of last weeks numbers, and expected moves for the upcoming week: SPY +1% (+/- 8.81) QQQ +2.6% (+/- 9.33) IWM +2.7% (+/- 4.96) ____________________ Technology +2.8% Energy -5.1% Financials +0.8% ____________________ VIX: -0.84% (21.14; ~25% IV Percentile) ____________________ Heading into next week, the market is maintaining a fairly resilient - if not strong posture. There will be a smattering of earnings from small/midsized companies throughout the week, and a potential market moving event with CPI data being released on Wednseday. A natural question to ask is when volatility will find a bottom and make a return. Nevertheless, the market looks posied to finish Q3 strong. I've updated the SPY chart to include an intermediate upside target of 425, which is very much in play heading into September. There is reason to be cautious however, as SKEW is potentially throwing out warning signs as it finished the week with its highest print in nearly 3 months.
AMEX:SPYLong
by InnerMotionTrading