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XLE

XLE may retrace to 82 @ TL; more pain to come if 79 breaksUpdate on my previous warning that XLE is soon to retrace. BULLISH CASE: XLE reached ATH 93.31, my FIb 2.0 target & retraced. It should bounce at the red Dec2021 trendline @ 82…FIb 1.0 which is a previous April top. BEARISH CASE: XLE had a very impressive run up since its pandemic low & a correction is overdue at this ideal time when extreme high oil price may dampen demand & OPEC & US to increase production. This correction will be temporary since China has re-opened from lockdown & demand will slowly increase going forward pointing a higher wave 3 or a wave 5 after a potential wave 4 correction whichever case may play out. But if 79 (FIB 0.50 retracement from 65 to ATH) is lost, more pain will come to the broader market SPX. This may also mean that wave 3 has peaked & an ABC wave 4 down may be underway. Not trading advice
AMEX:XLELong
by xtremerider8
Crude on track to rocket up...It has been weeks (maybe months) since Crude had yet to commit to an up move (clearly) although it gave early indication of the imminent move. This past week was volatile and eventually closed the week relatively bullish. The weekly MACD crossed up and appears set to continue the momentum, slowly but surely. The daily chart shows an invasion into a gap area, forming a resistance. The week closed near the top of the range, but has not yet decisively cleared the resistance. Technicals are supportive of a breakout. Upside targets are maintained, but time adjusted for another 3-6 weeks buffer.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
XLE a W3 BO of 2GANN FAN lines+wedge move or a bulltrap to W4?XLE formed a big H&S pattern in 2002 & has since bottomed during pandemic. From there, it started a blue rising wedge which had a more chance of breaking down. However, due to the Russian invasion, it broke to the upside above the H&S green neckline.. Measuring the height of this wedge gives a target of 82.40 which XLE had reached & recently exceeded. It also exceeded 2 GANN FAN lines from 2002 & 2020 lows but registered a big red candle the next day. I think XLE is currently at an impulse wave 3 of 3. XLE must hold 79 for wave 3 to continue higher. Losing 79 may signal a corrective wave 4 of 3 back down to retest the wedge at near the 68 level before a wave 5 0f 3 starts. It may even retest the green H&S neckline started in 2002 approximately near the 66 level. Supports at 79, 68 & 66. Resistances at 88 (1.618 Fib) & 92.24(2.0 Fib of recent wave b in a zigzag move) There is better chance of XLE holding 79 with wave 4 & do the last wave 5 of 3 as the world energy crisis is not abading in the near future. XLE is the ultimate winning sector for months. Not trading advice
AMEX:XLELong
by xtremerider8
Crude Oil UP ah!For the past month or so, been talking about higher Crude prices in the making. Here we are closer to that... The Weekly chart closed at a monthly high, and with such gusto that it is the most bullish looking candle in the past 6 weeks! This came after many indications and warnings from weekly candlestick patterns and daily technicals as outlined previously in the last couple of weeks. So, now the weekly technical indicators are showing a bullish turn. The daily chart have a late week Crude Oil price spike, that is meeting a gap resistance, and the coming week should break through... this is supported by the RPM and MACD technicals. 125 then 155... and this is an off-cycle surge, so am expecting a quick surge really.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
A Rising Wedge in the XLE is setting up a shortXLE looks like its forming a nice Rising Wedge on the daily chart. The bad news is we're heading into the Summer which usually leads to higher demand, and Rising Wedges aren't particularly good performers from a statistical standpoint. The good news is that they do offer about 2:1 odds of a reversal once the Wedge breaks. In addition, the momentum indicators are displaying significant bearish divergences, and regardless of seasonality, the macro picture is suggesting global slowing of demand for energy. Therefore, the sum of the evidence makes this look like a good short candidate for a swing trade. Where it gets a little more tricky is deciding how to get short. As mentioned above, there's about a 2/3 chance of a reversal. The problem is that historically speaking, the average moves of the reversals (-8%) aren't much to get excited about. Over the next 30 days, the Options market is anticipating about +/ $8.84 of movement. This aligns nicely with the idea of a breakdown from the wedge, which could take price down to the Point Of Control on the Volume Profile aruond $76. All things considered, I like the idea of trading this with a defined risk position like a vertical spread. Something like buying the $80 PUT and selling the $78 in the July 1st expiration. This is trading for about a $0.51 debit and would mature to somewhere north of $1.00 if XLE falls to $76 over the next 37 days. Thanks for reading; all the standard risk disclaimers apply .
AMEX:XLEShort
by InnerMotionTrading
1
Crude Oil giving a heads up onto a massive breakoutI have not seen such bullish candlestick patterns for a very long time now... The weekly chart had an amazing weekly candle where it is a T type doji, with indications of massive upward momentum, pushing with upward pressure. This comes in tow with two or three previous long tail pattern, and the weekly close is highest in the past 6 weeks. Weekly MACD appear to be turning up again, although not yet crossed over. The Daily chart shows how the week developed, with a mid-week bullish engulfing, and a follow through to the end of the week, with a solid bullish marubozu. Just plain bullish indications, if you ask me. Technicals are again turning upwards, supporting the upward march. Simple projections bring Crude to USD124 at the very least, by end May 2022. And... this is just the beginning. Fair warning given previously... now, it is looking that previous expectations are panning out.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Iron Condor XLE 13 May 2022XLE 13 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 36.3%/year So that converted into daily is 2.3% Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 79.3(you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 1.8 points from the open candle value) So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 85% within TOP 81.1 BOT 77.5 From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset. At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish. At the same the weekly expected channel top and bot values for DIA were TOP 335 BOT 314
AMEX:XLE
by exlux
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May XLEXLE Energy Sector 9 - 13 May The weekly VXXLE> Volatility Index for XLE Energy Sector Implied = 38.6 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 38.6 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 5.35% My historical product is telling me with 1.2x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 38.93 / sqrt(52) = 5.4% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 82.7% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 87.4 BOT - 78.5
AMEX:XLE
by exlux