Hey there, thanks for reading my idea! This isn't financial advice. Remember to do your own DD. Investing is risky. This is connected to my "Feeling Overextended?" idea which can be found here . An important metric to watch when determining whether a recession is imminent is the inversion of the Treasury bonds yield curve. Most specifically, the 3-month, 2-year...
Hey tradomaniacs, YIELDS are still in focus and could cause problems for the stock-markets. Why is that so important? First of all you have to know that there is a difference between capital market rates and the Federal Funds Rate. The Federal Funds Rate is an control mechanism to keep inflation, demand, supply and more economy related points...
USDJPY has been bullish for the past four weeks. Of interest is that the spot currency is moving in tandem with treasury yields. What's next for the USDJPY? It has approached a strong level of resistance and a 50-week moving average I'll be monitoring the currency to determine whether it will break the 50-week moving average as rates keep rising.
The lowest-rated debt keeps outperforming safer securities, with investors apparently more concerned about Treasury yields moving higher than credit risk. Investors are now demanding the least extra yield to own junk bonds over investment-grade notes since 2014. Rising treasury yields implies one of two scenarios is happening or about to happen. 1. Global...
Hello, US yields have been a hot topic since the beginning of the week. Will the Fed allow it to continue or will we see the CAP? In the first movement, "commodity currencies" may suffer, the end of the week may be interesting. Buying between 1.2640 / 20 Stop below 1.2590 First target 1.2890 / 1.2900 Good luck
Hey tradomaniacs, As you may have noticed the market is not moving as it should looking at fundamentals and news which is why I`m still staying aside. A positive newsflow of economic data and very good earning reports plus a rising stockmarket are not really driving currencies as they should due to the fact possible stimulus could continue to boost US-YIELDS,...
AUDUSD - Technical View: We've had a bit of a risk on move start this morning but equities and yields are both at key areas. In technical aspect we are a key resistance area in Aussie where I will be looking to add a short position on and scale in as time goes by. Technical: Pattern: Double Top for wedge forming. Support: 0.76425, 0.76280, 0.758050...
If I were a betting man, I'd say the 10Y yield looks poised to test 1.20% as early as this week. A weak 20Y auction which saw $24 Billion in demand at a significantly higher yield than December, could be indicating weakness in the bond market.
There is much speculation across the investor universe about what influences Gold prices and vice versa. Today I will be focusing on the false theory that Gold prices lead treasury yields and that by extension, Gold signals market crashes. The Financial Solar System Taking a look at the chart it is clear that sometimes Gold prices parallel and slightly lead...
Where do rates go from here guys?
Hi, a firm return from below 103.50 thanks to rising yiekds is not complete in our opinion The combination of 'fast money' and more short squeeze can push price higher towards 107+ Risk factor: yields / market sentiment Looking to buy on dips towards 105 and 104.4 Stop below 103.60 Target 107.20 / 30 OR Buy on the break of 105.60 (on the retest) Stop...
The correlation between real yields and gold price is well known, has strengthened since 2018 and in many ways works a lot better than e.g. the one with the M2 Money Stock. The (speculative) overshoot in gold in August 2020, very much like the one in August 2011 has corrected. Assuming the correlation remains strong, further price action in gold will depend on...
Hello, the dollar is reaching new lows, yields are scouring the bottom (probably up to a point) and EURUSD at the highs ... 1.1904 previous "high swing" broken and now as the first demand level, 1.1840 untested level as second demand level stop below 1.1825 First target 1.20 Second target 1.21 good luck
In a recent post, I showed the strong correlation between inverted real bond yields and gold and silver: The hot inflation data yesterday and today drove nominal bond yields sharply higher. Bond investors demand higher yields when inflation is hot, which is why nominal yields rose. The rise in nominal yields broke a trend line. Here is the trend line break on...
Resistance at a weekly down trendline, slight divergence with the bond yields and the Kiwi currency index. Talk of wanting RBNZ wanting a lower NZD, the yields are dropping, which the NZD in theory should follow. Black - NZDJPY Blue - NZD Currency index Red - 2 year bind yield Light Yellow- 10 year bond yield
Hey tradomaniacs, lots of Robin-Hood-Traders are asking themselfs: Why is gold and silver dropping? Well it can have a lot of reasons such as Profit-Saves due to the overbought situation, the fact that stock-market continues to climb and SPX500 is almost at its All-Time-High (portfolio turnover). It can be the fact that DXY (US-DOLLAR-INDEX) is oversold and...
Really, really remarkable to see this. Remember the Greek/eurozone debt crisis? That's what the big spike is. Now, here we are. Greek bonds are nearing their lowest levels ever. The only explanation is that people are seeking the safest form of assets in government bonds and Central Banks are becoming more helpful managing debt and supporting their countries. I...
Blue line is the 10 yr, they should start to diverge as yields rise and VIX falls. (in the perfect bull world)