Note: the technical indicators show a TTM squeeze ready on EVERY TF except Monthly, which is about to happen shortly by this summer - which means a massive move will happen. BOJ will blow up this summer and will devalue against the dollar forcing China to devalue to stay export competitive. I see a 50% devaluation - which will have the opposite effect on everyone...
USD/CNH remains within an established uptrend on the daily chart, and the US02Y-CN02Y spread has reached a new cycle high to suggest upside pressure could be building on USD/CNH.
Prices have retraced and are now trying to build a base around the June highs. Bulls could seek dips around the cycle lows with a stop below 7.25 in anticipation of a move to 7.35, the...
... and giving, and then give some more.
Should one lack the inclination to deal with everyday FX volatility (or with the lack thereof) then this is the pair to be SHORT , in George Foreman style, ala; "Just set it and forget it!"
Simply put, China's absolute best hope (just a dream, really) to survive it's oncoming demographic (industrial, deurbanization, and...
I wanted to take a moment to share some exciting news with you all about the USDCNH (US dollar and Chinese yuan) currency pair.
As many of you may know, the Chinese economy has been showing signs of weakness lately, directly impacting the yuan's value. The Federal Reserve has also raised interest rates, weakening the yuan against the US dollar.
But what does...
... picking up pace. - A lot, lately!
TLTR
The war in the Ukraine was essentially over the day it began. Now, with western interests notably starting to fade, it will start to make it's way to the back pages of daily reportage.
Why was this even an issue of US interests, to begin with? ...
Washington had this far fetched dream - although, not entirely without...
CME: USD/RMB Futures ( CME:CNH1! )
US-China relations are arguably the most challenging bilateral relations in the 21st century. It has been in a free fall since the 2018 trade conflict. The competition has intensified and spread to investment, technology, among other arenas since then.
On November 14th, 2022, President Biden met with President Xi during the...
Republishing this from my USDCNY post.
1. Head and Shoulders pattern
2. MA's + PA show a bottoming pattern
3. China will devalue the Yuan (Remnimbi)
4. Dollar $DXY will go over 106
5. Gold $XAUUSD will go below $1,500 oz.
6. Silvere $XAGUSD will go below $15 oz.
Trade idea related to this currency pair that goes through other macro factors
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10, 20,...
1. Head and Shoulders pattern
2. MA's + PA show a bottoming pattern
3. China will devalue the Yuan (Remnimbi)
4. Dollar $DXY will go over 106
5. Gold $XAUUSD will go below $1,500 oz.
6. Silvere $XAGUSD will go below $15 oz.
This is very likely a one-way move (up) here - as all previous examples would illustrate.
Most importantly, this is one of (if not "The") most lopsided FX (and debt, and credit, etc.) positioning currently on the entire Globe! (Everyone and everything is currently Net Short the Dollar vs. the Yuan!)
Ergo, as this move gets going (up) it is only likely to gain...
Chinese state media supported the government’s move on yuan’s weakening, saying it was normal. The press stressed on economic benefits that come with a flexible currency.
According to Xinhua News Agency’s Monday report, the yuan falling beyond 7 a dollar is a result of a market drive. The move shows the exchange rate is now more flexible. The report also said...
Just minutes ago, Reuters reported that Lightheizer and Mnuchin are going to Bejing for talks. However, trade war detente is now not on the table until June. Trump threatens to keep tariffs on if China won't hold up their end of the deal on intellectual property. Honestly its not looking good. It is difficult to tell if this trend will continue to go negative and...
Since the start of the trade war between the US and China, the Chin. Yuan has already depreciated by 8% against the US dollar. This will make Chinese products cheaper and thus cushion the US tariffs. At the same time, all US products will be 8% more expensive, plus tariffs.
At the same time, US dollar-based loans are becoming more expensive and are likely to...
