In this different trading idea, we want to bring attention to a potential shift in the USD/ZAR currency pair that goes against popular belief. Despite widespread negativity, we see a chance for the South African Rand (ZAR) to gain strength against the US Dollar (USD).
While USD/ZAR has been bullish (going up) for a while, there are signs that things could...
Background (a quick look back): The rand's covid recovery, on the back of the Fed’s QE infinity policy and a strong commodities rally, ended in June 2021 after the rand managed to pull the pair to a low of 13.40. The rand got hit by a quick one-two in the middle of 2021 as the DXY found support around 90.00 and the local riots in July which saw the local unit...
JSE:BID is showing signs for a potential long. After the fractal formed on Monday, it has since broken through the 5 candle descending resistance line. This could mean a nice upward move if it continues upward and triggers the trade.
Support at 18.21, which coincides with 50-day MA and 61.8% Fibo is holding support. A failed break below 18.21 will allow the pair to retest the resistance range between 18.48 and 18.55. A break below 18.21 will however see the pair slide back between the support range between 18.00 and 18.10.
For a more detailed analysis see the linked idea.
It is guaranteed to be a volatile week given the stacked economic calendar. Tonight, the Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 25bps, and on Friday we have the always highly anticipated US non-farm payroll data.
As per my previous idea, I got the timing wrong for my expected move to 18.55 but I’m still holding my buy orders in placed around the 18.21 level...
The pair is currently testing the top of the blue downward channel. A break above 18.40 will allow for a move higher north of 18.50 while a break below 18.21 will invalidate this move higher.
I’m personally positioning myself for more rand weakness and a move north of 18.50 given the current risk-off back drop. My strategy is to place buy limit orders around the...
JSE:APN has been threatening a reversal for over a month with the crossing downwards of the MACD, followed by the stochastic about 10 days ago. Now the 3 and 15 EMA's have finally crossed downwards triggering a short signal. If the trade gets taken, we will aim for a target around the 154 level.
The support level of 18.01 held its ground last week and the rand has been on the backfoot so far this week. The pair climbed to a high of 18.33 (the support turned resistance on the 23.6% Fibo level) on Monday. Although the rand managed to pull the pair lower onto the 50% Fibo level at 18.11, I believe there is further losses on the cards for the rand as the week...
Yesterday’s pullback was a bit deeper than expected following the US initial jobless claims result. The US jobless claims came in higher than expected and coupled with the lower-than-expected US CPI results from earlier this week, markets are betting on a Fed rate pause sooner than initially anticipated. My record of trying to predict the Fed has been poor so I’ll...
Potentially a long opportunity coming up on $JSE:SSW.
The stochastic and the MACD both signaled this earlier on, but the EMA's have now crossed which confirms the trade.
We are looking for a target at around the 4800 level.
The USDZAR pair completed an ABC corrective wave at the end of March after the higher-than-expected 50bps rate hike from the SARB allowed the rand to pull the pair into the support range between the 50%- and 38.2% Fibo retracement rates at 17.68 and 17.92, respectively. Since the start of April, the dollar (DXY) has found some support in the range between 101.36...
With the global economy showing more resilience and the Fed slowing its pace of tightening, we believe EM currencies can outperform relative to G10 peer currencies this year. Attractive real yields should result in market participants accumulating exposure to developing currencies, while our assumption for contained banking sector stresses should lead to improved...
I am not really going to go heavy on this because tomorrow is NFP so I'm protecting my capital. This is what I'm seeing but will wait for the next few candles before deciding what I will do.
⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️Stay away from this idea, it's something I just want to test. I post my ideas as reference for myself and to track my progress, so I'm posting it so I can document in-case it backfires. It follows my criteria to enter trades (RR, candle confirmation, pattern confirmation, a pair I have back tested)
Still running, but move SL into TP (According to your trading plan & goals). Dollar gaining back some of the strength it lost but as more and more talks go on about the one currency idea, we could see a further move down.
We entered a long on JSE:CPI based off of the crossing of the EMA's and the turning up of the stochastic and the MACD. The trade is looking good so far with it being about a 3rd of the way to the target at 1925. It may find a bit of resistance at the current level, but I think we can potentially see a nice profit at the target if this momentum continues.
The SARB will release their latest interest rate decision on Thursday and expectations are pointing to another 25bps hike which will push the repo rate to 7.50%. I haven’t posted an idea on the pair in quite a while but a whole lot has happened since my last idea.
March has been a very turbulent month for the local unit, but the rand is holding up relatively...
