Bond yields recent uptick is crashing markets and also causing the TLT to drop. Bonds holders have sent their message to the Fed. Ball 🏀 now is the the FED's court
When the yield curve (US10Y-US02Y) started going back up and uninverted, that's when markets reached their TOPS and started going back down.
This happened in 2000 and 2007.
I feel like this will happen again in 2024.
The yield curve went from -1% to -0.3% in the last year. It is going back up.
Will SPX top in 2024 and go down for the next 1-3 years?
Tesla weekly trend shows weakness as short-term traders hammer price down.
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com)
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor...
Seeing a weekly momentum shift forming, expect major trend change.
Couple of scenarios, Economy could break and fed allows inflation to creep up while easing on rates, If they reduce reverse repo rates then yields will drop as money market funds buy 1 yr bills on the open market again.
Otherwise they might have to increase rates if inflation continues to weigh...
Relative equal highs around the 4.329% level is prone for smart money to liquidate those who placed their stops above recent highs.
Stagnent throughout the week but the overall sentiment for yields over the short-term is bearish as a LH was formed, piling shorts to place their stops above recent short term highs as well as yields being bearish 2 weeks in a row,...
On the back of strong prices data which were not really consistent with the temporary relief in inflation but rather calling for a sustained trend.
US30Y is likely to revisit new high, breaking our
The 10Y US Treasuries finished the first quarter testing 4.2% level. The favorite Fed's inflation gauge, PCE indicator was published on Friday, indicating that the inflation is moving within market expectations. This additionally supported market optimism that the Fed will cut interest rates in June this year, which is currently estimated with 60% chance. Speaking...
The 20 year bond yield is finishing up a 5 month Bear Flag Pattern and on the inverse TLT is finishing up a 5 month Bull Flag Pattern. The Bond Market smells a Fed Pivot in the works. I bought TLT on 3/21/24 and will hold until we reverse at resistance at $96.50. If we break through resistance at $96.50 then momma gets a new card baby because we are going above...
Playing safe this week as last weeks projection was stretched to 4.401% but top formed @ 4.348%.
Immediate Swing high and low in relation to current price means we are currently in a discount market with last weeks updated projection of 4.19% still up for grabs and macro EQ @ 4.137% also up for debate if the sell programme continues.
My philosophy is...
Interesting what one day can do for a chart!
The trend is still up but #interestrates look fairly weak today.
The 1 & 2 year are not so bad but the 10 & 30 year look weaker.
TVC:TNX
US #Dollar still looks okay though, at least for now.
TVC:DXY
Let's look at rates for a bit.
Short term #yield is slowly climbing the trend line.
1 & 2 Year.
Longer term #interestrates look similar to the short term.
10 & 30 Year.
US #Dollar not as strong as bond yields but it is trading similar to them.
TVC:TNX TVC:DXY
Since the beginning of March, US Treasuries were waiting for a Fed`s clear signal over the course of their interest rate actions, and they finally got the necessary details in a statement after the FOMC meeting. The Fed is planning to cut interest rates three times till the end of this year. A few more cuts are coming in 2026. This information brought some...
High U.S. Yields vs. Alternative stocks such as NASDAQ:TSLA #Tesla OMXCOP:VWS #Vestas OMXCOP:ORSTED #Ørsted OMXSTO:PCELL #Powercell.
Thesis is yields down, alternatives up.
This is the yearly perspective Ten-year Treasury. Note the break of the secular downtrend and the push above the 3.35% pivot. It's worth noting that the MACD oscillator has turned higher for the first time since 1985.
The basic definition of an uptrend is a market consistently defining higher highs and higher lows. For instance, a great example of a downtrend...
Understanding yield curve correlations is essential for traders and investors seeking diversification and hedging opportunities across forex, indices, and commodity markets. The yield curve, a graphical representation of bond yields across different maturities, provides valuable insights into interest rate expectations, economic conditions, and market...
