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Risk-Weighted Index: Violation of 100-ema Heralds Trouble Ahead

The risk-weighted index, mainly driven by a sharp decline in the EM MSCI index, further anchored by a fall in US 30-yr Treasury yields and strength in the Yen and Swiss Franc, is communicating that the outlook for risk appetite looks quite poor this Friday and heading into next week's trading. The hourly chart has broken below its 100-hourly ema, which has been an ...

101 0 2
US10Y-US03M, 240 Short
A Fundamental Shift in the US Yield Curve

It's the first time this year that the US Dollar index is depreciating during a flattening of the curve, represented by a blue rectangle (yellow rectangles show the flattening of the curve not altering USD value), as recently reported by a Morgan Stanley paper. It implies a slowdown in US capital inflows, and the curve being a more accurate reflection of a ...

Risk-Weighted Index: Bullish Outlook, Watch Break of Triangle

A break higher in the risk index is set to reignite further weakness in the Japanese Yen crosses. The current formation of a narrowing triangle supports the 'risk on' environment heading into Thursday. It's also interesting to see how the 100-hourly MA has been acting as a reliable indicator guiding the risk rally. Keep an eye as a measurement to assess the ...

Constantino Constantino US30, 60, Long ,
107 0 6
US30, 60 Long
DOW SET UP

notes on the chart

15 0 1
US10Y-US02Y, 60 Long
Bullish Structure Developing in the 10y vs 2y US Yield Curve

Bullish structure developing in the 10y vs 2y yield curve after a breakout of the most recent swing low. Should the shift towards the upside extend, it adds support to the current recovery in the US Dollar as it communicates an improved outlook for the US economy and consequently, the market may factor in a more hawkish Fed.

bkinniry bkinniry US10Y, 1W, Short ,
29 0 2
US10Y, 1W Short
10 Year Bond & Mortgage Rates to Decline for Several Years?

Using Cycle Analysis we can see multiple Intermediate Cycle Lows (ICL) of about 4 to 5 years in duration with the next one due in the second half of 2020. The next event that will signal the direction of rates is if the 10 YR Bond breaks the upward cycle trend line from the last ICL. This could occur two ways: the bond moves sideways and breaks the trendline in ...

89 0 1
US10Y, D
Bond H&S update

updating the previous chart to look at how this is behaving. Keeps retesting neckline, yet it keeps getting rejected. If broken, this will rally a bit, but I still expect this to head south significantly.

4 0 2
IT10Y, D
Fate

Nothing to see here

cooldude.0090 cooldude.0090 US30, 15, Long ,
76 0 1
US30, 15 Long
how about bull cup of tea

dow broke bull flag plus cup of tea breakout

cooldude.0090 cooldude.0090 US30, 30, Long ,
59 0 0
US30, 30 Long
DOW BULL RUN/ WARNING FOR BEAR NEXT WEEK

DOW broke bull flag target is 26484

24 0 0
IT10Y-DE10Y, 1D
The Spread widens

This shows us how critical the situation is , and it is also among one of the contributing factors towards the weakening Euro(BTW the strong DXY isn't helping). This is a spread chart and shows us the divergence in yield between the two states. It gives us an idea as to how investors are pricing risk relative to a "risk-less counterpart" which in this case , it ...

Constantino Constantino US30, 60, Long ,
106 0 6
US30, 60 Long
US30 TECHNICAL ANALISIS

notes on the chart

Harrytrader2017 Harrytrader2017 US30, 1D, Long ,
25 0 1
US30, 1D Long
US30 LONG

GREAT OPPORTUNITY HERE

30 0 2
US10Y, D Short
Bearish Head & Shoulders Breakdown in Yields

RISING RATES! RISING RATES! RATES MUST GO UP! RATES CAN'T GO LOWER! BUY THE BANKS! RISING RATES! Okay, you get the point. That's the battle cry of pundits these days. However, rather than try to predict the future, I like to keep it simple and just analyze the charts. So, what I see, being the simple minded creature that I am, is a simple head and shoulders ...

102 1 4
US30, 15
bear trap or c wave

Indexes bear flagging or c wave either way weekly is bullish hand s too 25500

The Risk-Weighted Index Pain(t)s a Gloomy Picture

With regards to the constructive risk profile, pay attention here. It’s important not to be too complacent as the short term recovery in the risk-weighted index occurs within a wider negative context. From a top down analysis, we've drawn a few trendlines to represent the perils that entail for risky assets each time a violation occurs, which since the GFC, tends ...

31 1 2
US10Y, 1D
risk markets about to heat up

long gold and bonds buying SPX and COMPQX puts

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