GOLD 15MIN CRITICAL POINTXAUUSD 15-Minute Chart Analysis – Shavyfxhub Strategy
Current Price: ≈ 4,402
Market Structure
Gold is trading inside a rising structure on the 15-minute timeframe.
Multiple green ascending trendlines are acting as dynamic demand.
Horizontal resistance is clearly marked at 4,434 and 4,415.
Price recently made a push higher and is now retesting a confluence area.
The chart explicitly notes the trade reason: Ascending Trendline + Horizontal Support.
A BAR (Break and Retest) is marked near the current price action.
Important warning on the chart: Break and close of the current structure is a sell continuation.
Key Levels (Shavyfxhub Style)
Supply Roof / Resistance:
4,434 – 4,435 → Higher Supply Roof
4,415 → Intermediate resistance
Demand Floor / Support:
Rising green ascending trendlines (main dynamic demand)
Horizontal support around current levels (4,400 – 4,380 zone)
Current Bias
Bullish while the ascending structure holds.
Price is currently sitting at a critical confluence of the ascending trendline and horizontal support. This is a high-probability decision zone.
Scenarios
Bullish continuation:
Hold and bounce from the ascending trendline + horizontal support
Break above 4,415 then 4,434
Targets the upper red channel lines
Bearish / Sell continuation:
Clear break and close below the ascending trendline and horizontal support
Would confirm the chart’s warning and open downside targets toward 4,340 – 4,300 and lower
Summary (Shavyfxhub View)
Structure = Rising channel with key confluence support
Immediate focus = Reaction at the ascending trendline + horizontal support (around 4,400)
Critical resistance = 4,415 → 4,434
Critical support = Current ascending trendline zone
This is a clean Shavyfxhub decision point. Holding the structure keeps the bullish bias alive. A decisive break below it shifts the short-term bias to sell continuation.
Long
XAUUSD: Uptrend Still IntactXAUUSD maintains a bullish structure on the H1 timeframe, characterized by a series of higher lows and continued support from an ascending trendline. The most recent pullback failed to break the support zone around 4,360, indicating persistent buying pressure.
Notably, the 4,360 level represents a confluence of the trendline and short-term support. If the price holds this area, I expect XAUUSD to regain momentum and move up to test the 4,430–4,440 range.
From a fundamental perspective, safe-haven demand and expectations of a less hawkish Fed continue to underpin gold prices. However, upcoming US inflation data could trigger significant volatility.
Main Trend: Bullish | Support: 4,360 | Target: 4,430–4,440 Long 
Long
Short 
Short
Gold Breaks Week High, Support Zone Buy Confirms ContinuationThe 4H XAUUSD chart shows a powerful bullish development following weeks of consolidation. After the Bullish Market Structure Shift (BMS) off the Protected Swing Low / Major Demand zone near 3,949–3,985, price built a rising structure that culminated in a confirmed Bullish Breakout above the long-standing descending trend line, near the Strong Low around 4,020–4,030.
This breakout carried strong conviction, with price confirming a fresh BOS (Break of Structure) and accelerating sharply to a new Week High. This impulsive move has now retraced slightly, pulling back into what the chart labels the Support Zone Buy — a retest of the breakout area that confirms former resistance has flipped into reliable support.
Currently trading at 4,341.935, up 0.29% on the session, price is holding firmly within this support zone after the retest, reflecting continued bullish control. This kind of clean breakout-retest-continuation sequence is a textbook Smart Money Concepts pattern, often signaling that the next impulsive leg is ready to unfold.
The projected path points toward the Primary upside target zone between 4,410 and 4,480, an area where expected selling pressure may emerge given its historical significance on the higher timeframe. Beyond this, the broader Major Higher-Timeframe Supply Zone near 4,600 remains the long-term objective for this bullish structure.
From a risk management perspective, the key invalidation level is a decisive break below the Support Zone Buy (under 4,250). Such a move would suggest the breakout has failed and could open the door for a deeper retracement back toward the Strong Low.
For now, structure strongly favors continued upside momentum, with the confirmed retest supporting further gains toward the Primary upside target zone.
Do you think gold will push straight through to the 4,410–4,480 target zone, or will we see consolidation at current levels first? Long 
Short 
Long 
Long 
Long
Gold Hits Week High, Consolidates At OB Before Next Leg UpThe 1H XAUUSD chart shows a powerful bullish run that has now reached a significant milestone. Price rallied impulsively through a series of BOS and CHoCH confirmations, working through the key Fibonacci levels — 0.382 (4,309), 0.5 (4,333), and 0.618 (4,357) — before pushing to a fresh Week High near 4,435.916, precisely tagging the 1.0 Fibonacci extension of the move.
Following this strong push, price has pulled back into a well-defined OB + Rejection zone between roughly 4,320 and 4,340. This area lines up closely with the equal lows (EQL) and the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci confluence, making it a significant zone for buyers to potentially step back in after the extended rally.
Currently trading at 4,359.880, price is consolidating just above this support zone, digesting the recent gains. This kind of pause after tagging a full Fibonacci extension is a normal Smart Money Concepts pattern, often setting up a retest of key support before the next impulsive leg.
The projected path suggests a stepped continuation pattern — a further test of the OB support zone, followed by a push toward fresh highs beyond 4,460, moving into the broader Primary upside target zone that extends toward 4,480.
From a risk management perspective, the key invalidation level is a decisive break below the OB + Rejection zone (under 4,320). Such a move would suggest the rally has lost momentum and could open the door for a deeper retracement toward the Support Zone near 4,220–4,240.
For now, structure strongly favors continued bullish momentum following this Week High breakout, with traders watching for confirmation at the OB zone before targeting the next leg higher.
Do you think gold will hold this OB zone and push toward fresh highs, or will we see a deeper pullback first? Long 
XAU/USD: HTF Resistance Meets Bullish Structure ShiftGold (XAU/USD) is showing a major transition in market structure. Price previously respected the HTF Downtrend Trendline Resistance, maintaining a bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows. However, the recent clear market structure shift around the 4,160 area indicates that the structure has now shifted to bullish, followed by strong upside expansion.
The market spent a significant period in a sideways/consolidation phase, where price repeatedly moved between the marked resistance and support zones. During this range, the OBS & FVG zone around 3,960–4,000 provided important demand, while the larger HTF Order Block below acted as a major higher-timeframe support area.
After breaking the HTF downtrend trendline, Gold successfully confirmed a downtrend break, followed by a strong bullish displacement. This breakout and subsequent structure shift to bullish suggest that buyers have taken control of the short-term market structure.
However, price has now rallied directly into the marked Fair Value Gap (FVG) around the 4,400–4,450 region. This zone is important because price is approaching a previously identified imbalance area after an aggressive bullish expansion.
Therefore, although the overall short-term structure is bullish, a short-term bearish move/retracement is possible from the current FVG zone as price reacts to this higher-timeframe imbalance. A rejection from the FVG could lead to a corrective move before buyers potentially attempt another continuation higher.
Key observations:
🔹 HTF Trendline Resistance: Previous major bearish resistance, now broken.
🔹 Downtrend Broken: Confirms the transition away from the previous bearish structure.
🔹 Clear Market Structure Shift: Strong bullish shift around the 4,160 region.
🔹 Structure Shifted to Bullish: Buyers currently have control of the short-term structure.
🔹 Sideways Market: Previous consolidation/range before the breakout.
🔹 OBS & FVG: Important demand area around the 3,960–4,000 region.
🔹 HTF Order Block: Major higher-timeframe demand/support zone below price.
🔹 Current FVG: Price has entered the 4,400–4,450 imbalance zone.
🔹 Short-Term Bias: Bearish retracement is possible from the current FVG, despite the broader structure remaining bullish.
Conclusion: The key factor now is the reaction from the 4,400–4,450 FVG. A strong rejection could trigger a short-term bearish correction, while a clean breakout and acceptance above the FVG would support further bullish continuation. XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for August 12On the previous trading day, gold rose to $4435 in the Asian session before falling back, then dropped to $4356.5 in the European session before rising again, reaching $4404 in the NY session, and closing at $4369. The daily chart shows a pullback after a high, trading near the upper Bollinger Band. The TRIX indicator is bullish, the KDJ indicator has a golden cross, and the accompanying indicators are in overbought territory. The MACD indicator shows increasing upward momentum, indicating that the daily trend currently favors the bulls.
On the hourly chart, gold rebounded after retracing to $4362 in the Asian session and is currently trading around $4410. The price action has been consecutively higher, the KDJ indicator has turned from oversold to a low-level golden cross, the accompanying indicators are turning upward, and the MACD indicator shows decreasing downward momentum, suggesting a relatively bullish short-term trend. Given the current bullish dominance on the daily chart, intraday trading is recommended to wait for a pullback to support levels before buying. Support is seen around $4330, near the 4-hour Bollinger Band middle line, while resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $4435.
My recommendations:
BUY: 4345-4350, SL: 4335, TP: 4380-4400
SELL: 4410-4415, SL: 4425, TP: 4380-4350 XAUUSD – Bullish Structure Toward Key ResistanceGold has shown a strong recovery on the 4H chart after finding support near the 3,960 area. The recent price action has pushed above the 4,306 short-term support zone, indicating that buyers are currently maintaining control of the short-term structure.
The main resistance to watch is around 4,595. If price continues to hold above 4,306, the current structure leaves room for a potential test of this resistance area.
On the other hand, a clear break below 4,306 would weaken the current bullish structure and could shift attention back toward lower support zones.
Key levels:
Resistance: 4,595
Short-term support: 4,306
Major support: 3,960
This is technical analysis for educational and discussion purposes only, not investment advice. Market conditions can change, so the levels should be reassessed as new price action develops. Long 
Short
XAU/USD 15M — Bullish Continuation Toward Buy-Side LiquidityGold is currently maintaining a bullish market direction on the 15M timeframe. The overall structure shows a transition from the earlier bearish phase into a clear bullish sequence, with higher lows and strong upside displacement.
The first important confirmation on the chart is the Market Structure Shift around 4360–4365. Price broke above the previous structure and established a new bullish bias. After this shift, the market expanded strongly toward the 4435 area, confirming that buyers had taken control.
During the subsequent retracement, price returned into the marked FVG + Order Block zone around 4350–4365. This area acted as a major demand zone, producing multiple reactions and preventing a deeper bearish continuation. The repeated respect of this zone strengthens its importance within the current bullish structure.
The chart also shows a smaller FVG around 4390–4400. Price interacted with this imbalance during the recovery and subsequently pushed higher, showing that the area was being used as part of the bullish continuation structure.
Another major component is the ascending trendline drawn from the 4320 region. This trendline has continued to support the sequence of higher lows. Price has respected it throughout the recovery, so it remains an important structural guide for the current bullish direction.
On the right side of the chart, price produced another Market Structure Shift around 4400–4405, breaking the previous swing structure and accelerating toward the 4410–4415 region. This confirms renewed bullish momentum.
The gray projected price path on the chart suggests a potential short-term pullback/retest after the recent bullish expansion, followed by another upside move. A controlled retracement while the bullish structure and trendline remain intact would be consistent with continuation rather than an immediate trend reversal.
Above the market, the major objective is the clearly marked Buy-Side Liquidity around 4435.39. This level sits above the previous major swing high and represents the key liquidity pool that price may seek next.
The blue premium zone between approximately 4420 and 4435 is therefore an important area to monitor. Price may encounter temporary resistance inside this zone, but a successful continuation through it would open the path toward the marked buy-side liquidity.
📌 Overall Market Direction
BULLISH 📈
The combination of the Market Structure Shifts, FVG, FVG + Order Block demand zone, ascending trendline, higher-low structure, and untouched Buy-Side Liquidity near 4435 keeps the broader 15M bias bullish.
The main scenario shown on the chart is short-term retracement/retest → bullish continuation → Buy-Side Liquidity sweep near 4435.39. A decisive breakdown of the major bullish structure and trendline would be required to invalidate this continuation view. XAUUSD - CPI Update , Don't trade the level—trade the reaction a🟡 Hello Goldies —
Apologies for the late update, but we were celebrating Singapore's National Day weekend.
XAUUSD has staged an aggressive recovery from the 3,940–3,880 demand region and is now approaching a major weekly supply zone at 4,340–4,550, which also aligns with the descending higher-timeframe trendline. Weekly momentum is improving, but the broader structure remains bearish until price can reclaim the 4,550–4,775 region.
The primary setup is therefore to watch for a liquidity sweep into supply followed by bearish confirmation, targeting 4,250, 4,000 and potentially 3,944. Alternatively, a clean breakout and successful retest above 4,550 would open the path toward 4,775 and 4,892. Patience and confirmation are key at this decision zone. 🎯🐂🐻
🔑 Key Levels
🔴 Supply: 4,340–4,550
🟢 Breakout trigger: 4,550
🎯 Major resistance: 4,775 → 4,892
Lets Deep Dive :
📅 Weekly (W1) — Rally Into Major Supply ⚠️
The weekly chart is the most important piece here.
Price has bounced aggressively from the 3,940 area and is now around 4,411.
However, price is entering the major weekly supply zone around 4,340–4,550.
The long-term descending trendline is also approaching this area, creating strong confluence.
Weekly momentum is still negative, but the histogram is improving, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening.
The key issue: momentum recovery ≠ confirmed trend reversal.
🔴 Major resistance
4,340–4,550
Above that:
🎯 4,774
🎯 4,892
🎯 5,417
🟢 Major support
3,944–3,883
Below that:
🎯 3,595
🎯 3,220
🎯 3,000
Weekly Bias
🐻 Bearish-to-neutral while below 4,550–4,775
A weekly close above 4,775 would materially weaken the bearish thesis.
📈 Daily (D1) — Bulls Have Momentum, But Supply Is Close
The daily structure should now be treated as a counter-trend recovery until proven otherwise.
Price has recovered strongly from the July lows, meaning aggressively shorting every candle is dangerous.
🟢 Bullish scenario
If price establishes above 4,450–4,550:
➡️ 4,775 becomes the next major magnet.
A daily close above 4,775 would be a much stronger indication that the broader bearish structure is changing.
🔴 Bearish scenario
If price rejects the weekly supply:
➡️ 4,250–4,200
➡️ 4,000
➡️ 3,944
Daily Bias
🟠 Bullish correction inside a larger bearish structure
⏰ 4H — Watch the Reaction, Not the Candle
The 4H execution model is simple:
🟢 Bullish
If price breaks and holds above the upper supply boundary:
4,550 → 4,775
Look for a breakout → retest → continuation rather than chasing the initial candle.
🔴 Bearish
If price sweeps above the highs and gets rejected:
4,450–4,550 → rejection
Potential downside:
🎯 4,250
🎯 4,100
🎯 4,000
The best short setup would be a liquidity sweep + bearish displacement + retest, rather than blindly selling into strength.
⏱️ 1H — Execution Timeframe 🎯
The 1H should be used to confirm what the higher timeframes are doing.
🐻 Short setup
Look for:
Liquidity sweep → rejection → bearish ChoCH → retest
Preferred area:
🔴 4,450–4,550
Targets:
4,300 → 4,200 → 4,000
🐂 Long setup
Don't fight the weekly supply unless price proves itself.
Look for:
🟢 Break above resistance
🟢 Retest
🟢 Higher low
🟢 Bullish displacement
Then:
4,550 → 4,775
🎯 THE GAME PLAN
🔴 Primary Scenario — Sell the Reaction
4,450–4,550 supply
⬇️ Liquidity sweep
⬇️ Bearish confirmation
⬇️ Retest
⬇️ Shorts
🎯 TP1: 4,250
🎯 TP2: 4,000
🎯 TP3: 3,944
🎯 TP4: 3,883
🟢 Alternative Scenario — Bullish Breakout
If Gold accepts above 4,550 and holds the level on a retest:
🚀 4,775
Then:
🚀 4,892
A sustained move above 4,892 would significantly challenge the current bearish macro structure.
🎯 Game Plan
"We're not chasing the rally. We're waiting for Gold to tell us whether 4,550 is a launchpad or a trap.."
📚 For Educational Purposes Only. This is not a financial advise.
⚠️ Not financial advice — always manage your risk and trade responsibly.
Short 
XAU/USD Rally Faces First Real Reversal TestGold has had an extremely strong run, one that, as covered in a separate note yesterday, is close to unprecedented based on the moves in traditional macro drivers such as the US dollar and US Treasury yields over such a short period. But after such a pronounced surge, there are now some warning signs that the move may be running out of steam.
XAU/USD failed to hold above the 100-day moving average on Tuesday, leaving behind a daily candle resembling a shooting star. Coming after such a strong rally, that raises the risk of a near-term reversal. Depending on how price action develops today, there is also the potential for a three-candle evening star to form.
For now, the price continues to find support around $4,367, a level that has acted as both support and resistance earlier this year. That makes it an obvious level to watch heading into US inflation later in the session.
If the bearish reversal signal is confirmed, one potential setup would be to wait for a break beneath $4,367. If the price can break below and hold there, shorts could be considered with a tight stop above for protection, targeting $4,300 initially before $4,200, part of the breakout zone smashed through last week.
However, this is not a slam dunk case for shorts. RSI (14) and MACD continue to point to the bulls having the ascendancy, while XAU/USD has already bounced from $4,367 during Asian trade on Wednesday.
Therefore, if the price continues to hold above the level, pullbacks towards $4,367 could be bought with a tight stop beneath for protection. The first target would be Tuesday’s high around $4,435, with the 200-day simple moving average near the psychologically important $4,500 level beyond that.
Good luck,
DS Long 
