July CPI Data May Determine the Pace of Fed Rate AdjustmentsMarket data indicates that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has recently approached the highs seen in late July, as investors reprice their expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. Opinions remain divided regarding future interest rate adjustments; while a softening labor market supports a policy shift, energy-driven inflation risks may prompt the Fed to remain cautious. Analysts observe that significant volatility in energy markets is increasing pressure on interest rate markets; rising crude oil prices are pushing bond yields back up, while expectations for future policy tightening are intensifying. Against this backdrop, gold requires new bullish catalysts to break through key resistance zones.
Key factors currently in focus include U.S. CPI data, subsequent remarks by Fed officials, the trajectory of the U.S. dollar, and developments in energy markets. If U.S. inflation continues to decline, the market may increase bets on future policy easing, potentially allowing gold to re-challenge recent highs; conversely, if inflation reignites due to oil prices, gold may continue to face downward pressure from a strengthening dollar and rising yields. 
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Gold: Resistance Area – Short First, Longs on PullbacksAfter two weeks, I’m back. How has everyone been doing with their trading?
During my absence, gold rallied strongly and broke through the 4400 level. This move was late but it came — congratulations to those who followed the strategy and captured solid profits!
Now, back to business. Today’s market presents both risk and opportunity — CPI data will once again shake the market. If the data is bullish for gold, price could test the 4500 area. If bearish, we may see a pullback toward 4300 or even 4250.
From a technical perspective, the rally has been relatively healthy. However, sharp moves are always accompanied by accumulating selling pressure. If today’s data leans bearish, the combination of data-driven selling and existing overhead supply could push price below 4300 with relative ease.
The daily chart structure still looks decent for now. But as price moves above 4400, it is entering areas with notable selling pressure:
4440–4480: the first resistance zone after holding 4400
4540–4600: a heavier supply zone on the daily chart
On the 2-hour chart, persistent bearish divergence serves as a warning signal to stay cautious.
From a short-to-medium-term perspective, after the rally above 4400, the trading bias needs to shift — prioritizing selling opportunities, with buying as a secondary approach.
Trading Reference Levels:
Buy @ 4360 / 4280
Sell @ 4430 / 4480 Short 
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Elliott Wave View: Russell 2000 (RTY) Impulse Set to Extend HighThe short‑term Elliott Wave view in Russell 2000 (RTY) shows that the rally from the June 9, 2026 low is unfolding as a five‑wave impulsive structure. From that low, wave ((i)) concluded at 3068.4, followed by a corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) which ended at 2903.26. The one‑hour chart highlights this development clearly. The Index has since advanced in wave ((iii)), which subdivides into another five‑wave sequence of lesser degree.
From wave ((ii)), wave (i) finished at 2976.3, while the subsequent pullback in wave (ii) ended at 2905.3. The Index then resumed higher in wave (iii), reaching 3058.3, before a minor correction in wave (iv) concluded at 3002. This sequence suggests that the Index is poised to extend further in wave (v), thereby completing wave ((iii)) at a higher degree. Once wave ((iii)) is complete, the Index should undergo a corrective phase in wave ((iv)). It should retrace part of the advance before the next upward leg in wave ((v)) resumes to complete the cycle from the June 9 low.
In the near term, as long as the pivot at 2903.26 remains intact, dips are expected to attract buyers. Corrective phases should unfold in either three or seven swings, offering opportunities for renewed strength. 
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THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
Quick KOG Report this week with the red boxes and the bias levels added for market open and most of Monday’s session. For this week we want to see how the market opens, are there and gaps and do we get a liquidity spike before a retracement. We would also like to say, this week looks like it’s going to be extremely difficult to trade, one wrong entry here too high, and we could see this come all the way back down into the 4220’s again.
So, we’ll start by saying we’re going to stick with the 4H KOG Report chart for the defence boxes and we’re going to stick with last weeks NFP chart, which worked well for the RIP.
We have a key level above at the 4360-5 region and above that we have 4380-95 as a liquidity pool. What we may see here on the open is a push up into that level, and if we can exhaust around there, a short retracement back down into the defence boxes. Our key level here for this move is the 4250-40, ideally that’s the level we want to see attacked and that’s the level that decides what happens next.
In summary, above we have 4380-95, needs to hold for us to come down and potentially see 4250-40, break above that resistance and hold, we are looking closer to 4480 on the pull backs which will be opportunities to remain long. RIPs from above would be ideal here but this is gold, you have to align everything on the day before executing the plan.
RED BOX TARGETS:
BREAK ABOVE 4257 for 4365, 4375 and 4391 in extension of the move
BREAK BELOW 4335 for 4320, 4311 and 4303 in extension of the move
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold - is the CPI going to push us to the support zone?Gold enters Wednesday's inflation print extended. Price has run roughly 9.5% over the past month and tagged 4435.33 intraday today, a two-month high, before slipping back under 4400 as profit taking hit a strong rally. That rejection is the level we are working from.
The economic calendar is dense. ADP employment today, July CPI Wednesday, PPI and initial jobless claims Thursday, preliminary University of Michigan inflation expectations Friday. Consensus looks for headline CPI at 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5%, with core at 2.5%. The complication is energy. WTI is up nearly 6% to 81.54 as the Hormuz reopening talks stall, so this print carries the first real pass-through, and money markets have moved to 22 basis points of Federal Reserve tightening priced by year end, up from 17 on Friday. A firm number hardens that path, lifts the dollar and real yields, and pulls the bid from a non-yielding metal that has already priced a great deal of fear.
Structurally, 4435 caps. We favour potential selling into strength beneath that ceiling with a first objective at 4317 and the 4300 demand zone as the area where buyers previously defended. Invalidation is a sustained close above 4435.
The counter-case is live. The PBoC added roughly 20 tonnes in July, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, while Chinese gold ETFs post their longest inflow run in months. This is a fade of an extended move, not a trend trade. Size accordingly.
We have a tight stop loss due to one thing to weigh in: consensus expects CPI to cool, and a soft print would likely knock the dollar and push gold higher, not lower, so we are approaching the situation with tight risk management.
Entry - 4,385
Target - 4,317
SL - 4,421
What are your thoughts about this set-up share your mind in the comments!
As always my friends, happy trading! Short 
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XAUUSD: Is gold ready to break $4,400?📊 XAUUSD: Is gold ready to break $4,400?
🔥 What Happened?
Gold extended its rally and is now trading near $4,392, directly below the key $4,400 resistance zone.
The move follows a strong bullish structure: price reclaimed $4,318, held above the short-term moving averages, and continued higher toward the next major psychological level.
🧠 Why Did This Happen?
Gold is being supported by several macro drivers:
- weaker U.S. labor data reduced confidence in another aggressive Fed move;
- markets are watching upcoming U.S. inflation data;
- central bank and Asian investor demand remain supportive;
- geopolitical and fiscal-debt concerns keep safe-haven demand alive.
The nuance : the dollar and Treasury yields are also rising today, which can limit gold’s upside if the move becomes too stretched.
📉 Indicators
On the 1H chart, price is above EMA9, EMA20, SMA50 and SMA200, so the trend structure is clearly bullish.
RSI is around 70, meaning momentum is strong but gold is entering an overbought zone. MACD is positive and rising, confirming bullish pressure.
The issue: gold is now directly under $4,400, so chasing longs here is risky unless there is a clean breakout.
🎯 What’s Next?
Bullish Scenario:
If gold breaks and holds above $4,400, the next upside targets are $4,420-$4,440.
Rejection Scenario:
If price fails near $4,398-$4,400, a pullback toward $4,360-$4,348 is possible.
Bearish Risk:
If gold falls back below $4,318, the bullish structure weakens and price may revisit $4,300-$4,280.
💡 Key Takeaway
Gold is testing a major psychological resistance at $4,400. Momentum is bullish, but RSI is already hot. A confirmed breakout keeps the rally alive; rejection may trigger a healthy pullback before the next move.
⚠️ Not financial advice. 
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