Get started

Futures market

Elliott Wave SMC Analysis – Week 3 of August Positive Signals Are Increasingly Supporting the Bullish Scenario It is still relatively early to confirm that a new bullish trend has officially begun. However, the current signals are becoming increasingly constructive and are leaning toward a bullish scenario. Elliott Wave Structure One important point to pay attention to is the formation of the ABCDE structure, especially around the area where I labeled Wave D and Wave E. During this phase, price action became extremely compressed, making it difficult to accurately identify the starting point of Wave 1. For this reason, at the current stage, Elliott Wave labels should mainly be used to guide our expectations for the structure that may develop next. We should then use actual price action to confirm or adjust the wave count afterward. We should not try to determine too early whether the current rally belongs to Wave (1) or Wave (3). Assigning a wave label too early can create a directional bias regarding how deep the next correction should be. This is especially important because we still cannot confirm whether the larger corrective structure on D1 has completely ended. Liquidity Structure Is Showing Positive Signs Looking at the liquidity zones, we can see that the upside liquidity levels at 4204 and 4384 have already been taken one after another. Meanwhile, the downside liquidity at 3997 has still not been touched. This price behavior suggests that the market may be starting to form a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, supporting the possibility that a new bullish trend is gradually developing. In addition, the recent bullish move created a relatively wide FVG around 4170, suggesting that significant institutional order flow participated in this move. D1 Momentum D1 momentum is currently still moving lower. This supports the possibility that the corrective phase may continue during the early part of the week before bullish momentum begins to reverse higher. Plan for the New Week From a timing perspective, the weekly low often tends to form between Monday and Wednesday. Therefore, during the first half of the week, the key area to monitor will be the FVG around 4174. This is an unbalanced price area that has not yet been fully rebalanced, meaning it may continue to act as a magnet for price. If price retraces into this area and provides the appropriate confirmation, it could become a potential zone to look for Buy opportunities. Scenario if a New Bullish Trend Has Truly Begun One important characteristic to monitor will be the speed of the next bullish move. If the market has genuinely entered a new bullish trend, the next rally could be very strong and fast, with price potentially moving through the important liquidity levels at: 4596 4893 More importantly, if price can close strongly above 4893, we would have stronger confirmation that the larger D1 corrective structure may have ended. Trading Plan The main plan for the coming week is therefore to focus on the potential formation of the weekly low between Monday and Wednesday, with particular attention to the 4174 FVG. The key confirmation we want to see is D1 momentum reversing higher. Once this occurs together with appropriate price-action confirmation, we will prioritize looking for Buy opportunities in the direction of the developing bullish trend. The detailed trading plan for each individual day will be updated later once price action is officially confirmed on the lower timeframes.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
1
Your Backtest is Lying to YouThe backtest said 68 percent win rate. Live, the same strategy is barely breaking even, and you have quietly decided the problem is your psychology. Sometimes it is. Often it is not. The backtest was overstating the strategy before you ever placed a trade, and the gap you are feeling is the size of that overstatement. I want to go through the specific ways a test comes out better than reality, because once you can name them you can measure them, and a corrected expectation is worth more than an inflated one. 1. THE CANDLE DOES NOT TELL YOU THE ORDER THINGS HAPPENED IN This is the biggest one and it is almost never mentioned. Take a trade with a stop and a target. Now find a candle whose range covers both of them. High enough to hit your target, low enough to hit your stop. Which one happened first? The candle cannot tell you. It stores four numbers: open, high, low, close. The sequence inside it is gone. So the backtester has to guess, and most of them guess in your favour. Some assume the target filled. Some use a rule like "if the open is closer to the target, assume target first". Either way, every candle that could have gone both ways gets resolved as a win far more often than reality would allow. This inflates any strategy where the stop and target both sit inside normal bar range. The tighter your stop relative to the candle size, the worse it gets, which is exactly why tight-stop systems look so good in testing and fall apart live. When I measured this properly on NQ, the difference was worth roughly 5.6 ticks per trade. That number sounds small until you multiply it across a few hundred trades and notice it is larger than the edge the strategy claimed to have. How to check it: run the same test on a much lower timeframe so fewer candles contain both levels. If the results collapse, the original number was mostly this. 2. YOU TESTED UNTIL IT WORKED Here is the part that is uncomfortable, because everybody does it and almost nobody counts it. You test the strategy. It is mediocre. So you try a different stop distance. Then a different session filter. Then you exclude Mondays because Mondays look bad. Then a different moving average length. Eventually a version looks great and you stop testing. That version is not your best strategy. It is your luckiest one. Some arithmetic makes it concrete. Take a coin flip over 100 trades. The standard deviation of the win rate is about 5 percent. Now test 100 variations of that coin flip and keep the best. The best of 100 will typically land around two and a half standard deviations above the middle. That is a win rate near 62 percent. Sixty two percent, from a coin, purely because you looked a hundred times. Now consider that a real optimisation run tests hundreds or thousands of combinations, and that a bad one gets thrown away without you thinking of it as a test. That is the mechanism, and it does not care how good your idea was. How to check it: count the variations you tried, including the ones you abandoned after ten minutes. If the honest answer is more than about five, your final number is inflated and you do not know by how much. 3. THE COSTS ARE NEVER WHAT YOU PUT IN Most people either leave costs out or plug in a flat number that flatters them. Three things get understated. Spread is not fixed. It widens exactly when you most want to trade, which is the open, the release and the breakout. Your test used the average spread. Your fills happened at the wide one. Slippage is not symmetrical. When a move goes against you, you get filled. When it goes for you, you sometimes do not. That asymmetry does not show up anywhere in a standard backtest. And commission compounds with frequency. A cost that looks trivial per trade becomes the entire edge on a strategy that trades often. Scalping systems die here more than anywhere else. How to check it: rerun with double the costs you assumed. If the strategy stops working, it was never a strategy. It was a cost estimate. 4. YOUR SAMPLE IS SMALLER THAN YOU THINK Thirty trades tells you very little. A hundred is a start. It still is not much. Two things make it worse than the raw count suggests. Trades cluster. Twenty trades taken in one trending month are not twenty independent pieces of evidence. They are closer to one piece of evidence about one market condition, repeated twenty times. Your strategy has been tested against a single environment and you have counted it twenty times. And averaging hides it. If you average your win rate per day rather than pooling all trades together, quiet days with two trades count the same as busy days with twenty. Small clusters get enormous weight and can manufacture an effect that is not there. I have watched that alone create a several percent improvement out of nothing. How to check it: compute your win rate both ways, pooled across all trades and averaged per day. If the two numbers disagree meaningfully, the flattering one is an artefact. 5. YOU USED INFORMATION YOU DID NOT HAVE AT THE TIME Look-ahead bias sounds like an academic problem. It is not, and it hides in ordinary places. The obvious version is repainting. An indicator that adjusts its past signals once more bars arrive will look extraordinary in testing, because on the chart you are staring at it has already corrected itself. Live, it gives you the signal and then changes its mind. Zigzag style tools and anything that marks a swing high only after price has moved away both do this. The subtle version is timeframe leakage. You decide an intraday trade using the daily close, or you filter by whether the session ended bullish. At the time you would actually have been clicking, that candle had not closed and you did not know how it would end. The test does, because it is reading finished data. There is a third version that catches people using higher timeframe bias. If your rule is "only long when the 4 hour is bullish", check what "bullish" means at the moment of entry rather than at the end of the 4 hour candle. Those are different rules and only one of them is tradeable. How to check it: for every condition in your strategy, ask whether that value was final at the moment of entry. If it could still have changed, the test knew something you would not have. 6. YOU ALREADY KNEW WHAT THE CHART DID This one is specific to manual replay testing, which is how most people on this platform test, and it is the hardest to control. You pick a market and a date, roll the bars forward, and take trades as they appear. It feels honest. But you have almost certainly seen this chart before. You know roughly where the big move was. You know this pair spent the autumn trending. That knowledge leaks into every decision without ever announcing itself. You hold a winner slightly longer because something in you knows the move continued. You skip an entry that felt wrong in a way you cannot articulate, on a day that happened to be choppy. The other half of the problem is that you decide when to stop. Nobody ends a replay session on a losing streak and records it. You take a break, come back tomorrow, and the sample quietly loses its worst stretch. How to check it: replay on a market you do not follow, with the symbol name hidden if your platform allows it, and commit to a fixed number of trades before you start. Write the number down first. Then trade all of them, including the ones after three losses in a row. 7. THE BACKTEST NEVER HAD TO BE YOU The version of you in the backtest is a machine with no memory. It never skipped a setup because the last two lost. It never sized up to make back a bad morning. It never moved a stop because the trade was nearly there. It never went to sleep, missed London, and took a worse trade at lunch instead. Your live results include all of that, and none of it is in the test. This is why comparing your live performance to your backtest and concluding you have a discipline problem is often the wrong diagnosis, and sometimes a very expensive one. The backtest was never a realistic ceiling. It was an inflated number, and you have been measuring yourself against it. HOW TO TEST SOMETHING PROPERLY None of this means testing is pointless. It means a test needs guardrails. Split the data before you start. Take the most recent third and do not look at it. Build and optimise on the older two thirds. When you are finished and have stopped fiddling, run it once on the part you held back. That single run is your real estimate. If you go back and adjust after seeing it, you have burned it and you need fresh data. Walk it forward. Optimise on six months, test on the next one, roll the window, repeat. What you want to see is whether the parameters that won in one window keep winning in the next. Usually they do not, and that tells you the parameters were noise. Run the null. This is the one almost nobody does and it is the most informative. Take your data, shuffle the returns or generate random series with similar characteristics, then run your whole process on it exactly as you normally would. Including the fiddling. If your method finds a profitable strategy in random data, and it usually will, you now know what your process produces from nothing. Anything real has to beat that, not zero. Count everything you tried. Keep a log of every variation, including abandoned ones. The count is the correction factor. Ten variations means a much higher bar than one. WHAT THE CORRECTION ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE Worth walking through with the number from the top, because the individual effects sound small and the combination does not. Start at the claimed 68 percent win rate. Resolve the ambiguous candles honestly instead of favourably and a chunk of those wins become losses. On a tight stop system this alone can take several points off the win rate. Apply real costs, the wide spread rather than the average, and the trades that were marginal winners become scratches or small losses. Correct for the fact that you tried eleven variations and kept the best. There is no clean formula for that at home, but the honest adjustment is downward and it is not small. Then account for the sample being one trending quarter rather than a range of conditions. You do not end up at 68 percent. You end up somewhere in the fifties at best, on a system whose reward to risk determines whether that is even profitable. That is not a disaster. A system in the fifties with a decent reward to risk is a real edge and plenty of people make a living on less. The disaster is planning your position sizing, your income expectations and your prop firm timeline around 68. WHAT A REAL RESULT ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE Worth calibrating, because inflated tests have skewed what people expect. A genuine edge is usually small. A win rate in the forties with a reward larger than the risk. A profit factor somewhere between 1.1 and 1.4. Drawdowns that are uncomfortable and last longer than you would like. If your test shows a 70 percent win rate, a profit factor of 3 and a smooth equity curve, the most likely explanation is not that you found something extraordinary. It is one of the five things above. The small ugly result that survives an untouched out-of-sample run is worth more than the beautiful one that does not. WHEN BACKTESTING IS STILL WORTH DOING Being fair about it, because the answer is not to stop. It is very good at killing bad ideas. If something loses on ten years of data, you do not need to risk money finding that out. Rejection is the most reliable thing a backtest does. It is good for understanding behaviour. How long are the drawdowns, how many losses in a row should you expect, which conditions hurt. That is preparation you cannot get any other way, and it matters more than the headline number. It is good for building familiarity with a setup, which is why manual replay testing is worth the hours even though it proves nothing statistically. What it is not good at is telling you how much money you will make. Treat it as a filter, not a forecast. THE CHECK TO RUN ON YOUR CURRENT STRATEGY Three questions. Be honest, nobody is watching. How many variations did I try before I settled on this one? Did I ever run it on data I had not already looked at, without changing anything afterwards? If I double the costs, does it still work? If the answers are "a lot", "no", and "no", then the strategy has not failed you yet. It has never actually been tested. Ten years in, the biggest change in my own results came from getting far more sceptical about my own evidence. Not a better setup. Just refusing to believe a good-looking number until it survived something it could have failed. What is the best backtest result you have ever gotten that fell apart live? Post the numbers, I am genuinely curious how big the gap usually is.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by Road_2_Funded
1
XAUUSD 1H — Bullish Structure & FVG RetestGold has maintained a bullish market structure on the 1H timeframe, with multiple BOS confirmations followed by a recent Market Structure Shift (MSS). Price is now trading above the marked 1H Fair Value Gap + Order Block, making this zone an important area to watch for a potential retracement and bullish reaction. 🔍 Key Levels 🟦 1H FVG + OB: 4350–4362 🟧 1H Support: 4315–4320 🎯 First Resistance: 4398–4400 🏆 Major Target / PWH: 4445–4450 📈 Bullish Scenario If price retraces into the 1H FVG + OB and shows a valid bullish reaction, the market could continue toward the 4398–4400 resistance area, followed by a potential test of the previous week high around 4445–4450. The bullish structure remains constructive while price respects the key support area. ⚠️ Invalidation A decisive break and sustained acceptance below the 1H support around 4315–4320 would weaken the bullish thesis and require a reassessment of the structure. Educational market-structure analysis only — not financial advice. Always manage risk according to your own strategy. #XAUUSD #Gold #GoldTrading #SMC #ICT #MarketStructure #FVG #OrderBlock #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trade_Strategies
2
XAUUSD: Bearish Continuation After Resistance RejectionXAUUSD 2H Bearish Reversal Setup | Resistance Rejection & 4255 Target Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading around the 4,390–4,400 area after a strong bullish recovery. However, price is approaching a major resistance/supply zone near 4,400–4,440, where the chart shows a Weak High and signs of rejection. The current structure suggests that sellers could regain control if price fails to establish a strong breakout above this resistance. 📉 Bearish Scenario: A rejection from the 4,400–4,440 resistance zone, followed by bearish candles and a break below the nearby 4,385–4,380 area, could confirm increasing selling pressure. In this case, the first downside objective is around 4,320–4,300. If bearish momentum continues, the next major target zone comes near 4,255–4,240, which is the highlighted target area on the chart. 🎯 Bearish Targets: • TP1: 4,320–4,300 • TP2: 4,280–4,255 • TP3: 4,240–4,200 • Extended downside: 4,120–4,080 if the larger support structure breaks 📈 Bullish Scenario: The bearish setup would be weakened if gold produces a strong 2H close above the 4,400–4,440 resistance zone. A confirmed breakout and successful retest could bring buyers back into control, with the next upside area around 4,468 and potentially higher levels if momentum remains strong. 🎯 Bullish Targets: • TP1: 4,420–4,440 • TP2: 4,468 • TP3: 4,480+ on a sustained breakout 🔑 Key Points: • Price is testing a significant resistance/supply area around 4,400–4,440. • The chart highlights a Weak High, which increases the importance of the current rejection zone. • Consecutive bearish candles would strengthen the short-term reversal case. • A break below 4,385–4,380 can provide additional confirmation for sellers. • 4,300 is an important downside level to monitor. • The major projected bearish target is around 4,255–4,240. • The larger support zone remains around 4,040–4,000. • A clean breakout above 4,440 would invalidate much of the immediate bearish setup. 📊 Trading Perspective: From a short-term trading perspective, the key area is the 4,400–4,440 resistance zone. Rather than chasing a sell while price is still moving upward, traders can watch for confirmation such as a strong bearish rejection candle, lower high formation, or a break of nearby support. A confirmed rejection could offer a better risk-to-reward opportunity toward 4,320, 4,300 and eventually 4,255. On the other hand, if buyers successfully break and hold above 4,440, the bearish idea should be reconsidered. A breakout followed by a successful retest would indicate that bullish momentum is still dominant and could push gold toward 4,468 and higher. ⚠️ Risk Management: Keep position size controlled and avoid entering solely because price reaches a resistance zone. For bearish trades, invalidation can be considered above the confirmed resistance/swing-high area, depending on the trader's entry and strategy. Wait for candle confirmation before entering, and consider taking partial profits at each target rather than expecting one uninterrupted move. Overall, XAUUSD is at a critical decision area. The 4,400–4,440 zone is the main battle between buyers and sellers. Rejection from this zone could open the path toward 4,300 and 4,255, while a confirmed breakout above 4,440 could shift the structure back toward a bullish continuation. 📉📈
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Global_Gold_Insights
2
BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD HOLDS HIGH VALUE, NEXT TARGET IS THE SELL BRIAN XAUUSD – GOLD HOLDS HIGH VALUE, NEXT TARGET IS THE SELL POC Gold is ending the week with a strong recovery structure after buyers defended value several times during the pullback phase. Across the week, the main story was clear: gold reacted from the lower value zones, reclaimed the POC structure, pushed into higher value, then corrected slightly without breaking the broader bullish base. Even when profit-taking appeared near the recent high, buyers continued to defend the important Volume Profile levels. Now the H4 chart shows gold trading around 4,376, holding above the Buy zone 4,348 and still respecting the bullish recovery from early August. Technical structure On the H4 chart, gold has shifted from a long consolidation base into a strong bullish expansion. The Buy zone 4,348 is the nearest support. This is the first area where buyers may defend the market if price pulls back. Below that, the Buy zone VAL 4,245 is the deeper value support. If gold corrects harder, this zone becomes the main buyer reload area. Above current price, the next major upside target is the Sell zone POC 4,539. This is the higher Volume Profile resistance where sellers may start defending aggressively. Important zones Current price area: 4,370 - 4,380 Gold is holding high value after the weekly recovery. Buy zone: 4,348 Nearest support and first buyer reaction area. Buy zone VAL: 4,245 Deeper support if gold needs a larger correction. Sell zone POC: 4,539 Main upside target and major resistance zone. Weekly structure: Buyers defended value, reclaimed momentum, and kept price above the key support zones. Trading scenario Buy reaction from Buy zone 4,348 Entry: Look for buy positions only if price pulls back into 4,340 - 4,350 and shows clear bullish rejection. Stop Loss: Below the Buy zone or below the local pullback low. Take Profit: TP1: 4,400 TP2: 4,460 TP3: 4,539 if buyers keep strong acceptance above value This setup follows the current bullish Volume Profile structure, but avoids chasing price after a strong weekly move. Alternative scenario If gold breaks below 4,348 and fails to reclaim it, the market may rotate deeper towards the Buy zone VAL around 4,245 before buyers step in again. That would not immediately destroy the larger bullish structure, but it would show that gold needs a deeper value reset before continuing higher. Final view Gold is still bullish while it holds above 4,348. The week showed that buyers are not giving up control easily. Every correction into value has attracted demand, and the structure now points towards a possible continuation into the higher POC target. But the best trade is still not to chase the top. The cleaner plan is to wait for a pullback into value and watch whether buyers defend the zone again. If 4,348 holds, gold can continue towards 4,539. If 4,348 fails, watch 4,245 as the next major buyer reaction zone. For now, gold is strong, but value still decides the next clean entry. Would you buy the 4,348 retest, or wait for gold to reach the 4,539 Sell POC first?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
4
Tech Feels Rates Pressure — But Breadth and Credit Still HoldMarket Regime Fragile Rotation / Rates-Driven Valuation Pressure Friday's weakness in ES/NQ and parts of technology deserves respect, but the broader market has not confirmed a genuine risk-off regime. Long-duration yields remain elevated, creating a difficult backdrop for expensive growth assets. Yet small caps, equal-weight equities, financials, credit, volatility and funding markets continue to behave relatively well. For now, this looks more like rotation and valuation pressure than broad macro stress. Index Structure ES remains inside its larger bullish structure near the recent highs, although the CVD divergence we have been tracking continues to argue against blindly trusting price strength. NQ remains more sensitive to the higher-rate environment and continues to lag the broader market. RTY remains one of the more important counter-signals. Small caps are still holding constructive structure rather than joining NQ in a broad breakdown. RSP is also near recent highs, suggesting the average stock continues to perform better than the weakness in headline growth indexes might imply. Rates The long end remains the main pressure point. The 10Y and 30Y remain elevated, keeping financial conditions restrictive for duration-sensitive growth. TLT remains weak, although its recent CVD divergence suggests bond selling may be losing some momentum. That remains a warning rather than confirmation of a bond reversal. If long yields continue rising, NQ and semiconductors remain the areas most vulnerable to valuation compression. Volatility VIX and VX remain subdued. Friday's equity weakness was not accompanied by a meaningful volatility breakout, and VX CVD has not shown aggressive hedging accumulation. That remains one of the strongest arguments against classifying the current environment as broad risk-off. A more meaningful warning would require VIX/VX to reclaim VWAP and EMA-cloud resistance while ES/NQ simultaneously lose structure. Credit / Financials Credit continues to hold. HYG/LQD remains firm, KRE is near recent highs and XLF has not shown meaningful financial stress. That is not the confirmation chain I would expect from a developing systemic risk event. Breadth Longer-term participation remains healthy: Roughly 66% of S&P 500 stocks remain above their 20-day moving average. Roughly 69% remain above their 50-day. Roughly 73% remain above their 200-day. RSP and RTY remain constructive as well. This suggests Friday's weakness was concentrated more heavily in growth and leadership than across the entire equity market. AI / Semiconductors Semiconductors remain mixed. NVDA continues holding near recent highs, while AMD and MU remain constructive. AVGO was materially weaker, and SMH continues showing a notable price/CVD divergence. That divergence deserves monitoring, but the group is showing dispersion rather than synchronized semiconductor liquidation. Mega-cap technology is similarly fragmented, with different leaders rotating rather than moving as one unified group. Funding Plumbing Funding conditions remain calm, with liquidity tightening underneath. Bank reserves are around $2.94T while the Treasury General Account has rebuilt toward roughly $950B+. However: SOFR remains around 3.62–3.64%. EFFR is 3.63%. The Fed target range is 3.50–3.75%. Repo/SRF usage remains negligible. So reserves are being drained, but the funding market is still absorbing the decline without meaningful stress. Labor / Consumer Labor conditions remain relatively healthy. Initial claims and continuing claims remain contained, unemployment is around 4.1%, and U-6 is unchanged near 7.9%. Retail sales weakened in the latest readings, including real retail sales, so consumer momentum deserves monitoring. For now the message is: Consumer cooling — labor still healthy. Global / Macro DXY continues rejecting beneath the major level we have been tracking. Gold and crude are modestly higher Sunday evening but are not signaling a major macro shock. Global markets remain mixed: Japan and continental Europe continue holding better, while Hang Seng and the FTSE remain weaker. What Changed? The important development is not simply that NQ and technology weakened. The rest of the market did not follow them lower. RSP, RTY, KRE, HYG/LQD and longer-term breadth remain constructive while volatility and funding markets remain calm. That keeps the current weakness classified as rotation / valuation pressure rather than confirmed broad risk-off. Monday I'm Watching ES/NQ structural support. NQ/SOX sensitivity to another rise in long yields. RSP and RTY continuing to outperform. HYG/LQD and KRE remaining firm. Whether VIX/VX reclaim VWAP or EMA-cloud resistance. SMH/NVDA/AVGO semiconductor confirmation. Whether ES/SMH CVD divergences begin resolving through price. SOFR versus EFFR as reserves continue declining. 10Y/30Y yields. Confidence Medium-High The broader market remains healthier than the weakness in duration-sensitive technology suggests, but higher long-term yields and several participation divergences keep the environment fragile. This is my personal market journal and analysis process — not financial advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by SITCo_
Gold Pullback: Buy the Dip!The standoff between the US and Iran persists, with Iran claiming to have completely expelled US forces from the Strait of Hormuz; this has fueled market uncertainty. Meanwhile, although recent data releases have sparked renewed debate regarding the Federal Reserve's stance, the consensus is that the Fed will maintain current interest rates rather than hike them. This caused the US Dollar Index to weaken again after a brief rebound, thereby providing support for gold. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the gold price has climbed back above the 4400 level. Key resistance lies in the 4440–4450 range, while short-term support is found at 4380–4385, with critical support at 4340–4350. Although a technical pullback or correction is plausible, the overall strategy remains to buy on dips. Trading should focus on range-bound fluctuations; please wait patiently for the right opportunity to enter the market. Gold Trading Strategy: 1. Go long in the 4360–4365 range; add to long positions if the price pulls back to the 4340–4350 range; set stop-loss at 4337; target the 4435–4450 range.
TVC:GOLDLong
by rjycmx
1
XAUUSD: 4,310 Held, 4,595 Is the Bigger Target XAUUSD: 4,310 Held, 4,595 Is the Bigger Target Market Context Gold finished the week with a strong recovery structure, but the move was not clean in one straight line. Earlier in the week, buyers pushed price aggressively above 4,400 and tested the weak high area near 4,450. After that, gold corrected back toward the 4,310 low area before buyers stepped in again. The main story is simple: gold pulled back, but buyers did not lose the structure. As long as 4,310 holds, the market still has room to continue higher. Technical Structure Gold is trading around 4,376 after reacting from the low zone and recovering back into the liquidity area. The chart shows that buyers are still defending the higher-timeframe bullish structure. Price already broke structure earlier, created a strong upside leg, then formed a correction instead of a full bearish reversal. The key support is 4,310. This is the low that buyers must protect. If price stays above this level, gold can continue building another bullish leg. The main buy area below is the OB Buy Zone around 4,245 - 4,270. If price pulls back deeper into this area and reacts strongly, it can become a clean re-entry zone for buyers. Above the current price, 4,450 is the weak high. A break above this level can open the next upside path toward the buy-side liquidity around 4,594. Key Levels Current Price: 4,376 Immediate Liquidity Area: 4,385 - 4,400 Weak High: 4,450 Major Buy-side Liquidity: 4,594 Current Low Support: 4,310 OB Buy Zone: 4,245 - 4,270 FVG Support: 4,090 - 4,130 Bullish Continuation: Above 4,450 Bearish Risk: Below 4,310 Trading Plan Buy Scenario Entry: 4,310 - 4,330 after bullish confirmation SL: Below 4,245 TP: 4,400 / 4,450 / 4,594 Condition: Price must hold above the current low zone and form clear bullish rejection. Buyers need to show strength before continuation becomes valid. Deep Buy Re-entry Entry: 4,245 - 4,270 SL: Below 4,200 TP: 4,310 / 4,400 / 4,450 Condition: Price corrects deeper into the OB Buy Zone and reacts strongly. This is the cleaner re-entry area if gold needs one more pullback before the next bullish leg. Buy Breakout Entry: Above 4,450 after breakout and retest SL: Below 4,385 TP: 4,500 / 4,550 / 4,594 Condition: Price must break the weak high with strength, retest successfully, and hold above 4,450. Avoid chasing the first breakout candle without confirmation. Sell Reaction Entry: 4,450 after bearish rejection SL: Above 4,480 TP: 4,400 / 4,376 / 4,310 Condition: Price sweeps the weak high but fails to continue higher. This is only a short-term reaction sell, not the main bias unless gold later breaks below 4,310. Breakdown Sell Entry: Below 4,310 after breakdown and retest SL: Above 4,376 TP: 4,270 / 4,245 / 4,130 Condition: Price loses the current low support, retest fails, and bearish momentum increases. This would confirm that the weekly bullish structure is weakening. Overall Bias Gold remains bullish while price holds above 4,310. The pullback this week looks more like a correction inside the larger recovery structure, not a full trend reversal yet. If buyers defend 4,310 and break 4,450, the next major target is the buy-side liquidity around 4,594. If 4,310 fails, gold may need a deeper reset toward 4,245 - 4,270 before any new bullish attempt. Best approach: follow the bullish structure, but do not chase price in the middle. Wait for either a clean reaction near support or a confirmed breakout above 4,450. Will buyers defend 4,310 and push gold toward 4,594, or will the market need one deeper pullback first?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Owen_Steele
10
XAUUSD — 4,373 Is the Week’s TestXAUUSD — 4,373 Is the Week’s Test Gold is opening the new week with buyers still in the room, and the chart feels like it is trying to continue the same story from last week instead of starting from zero. Price climbed back toward 4,395 after holding the recovery structure, and that matters because every dip so far has been defended inside the rising channel. The move from the liquidity reset base around 4,290 - 4,300 gave buyers a clean foundation, then price pushed higher again into the 4,390 area. For newer traders, this is the simple part: when price keeps forming higher lows and reacts from the same channel support, the market is not showing real bearish control yet. My main view is bullish while gold holds above 4,373.868 and the momentum refill shelf around 4,335 - 4,345. Softer US inflation signals and weaker retail sales have reduced some Fed hike expectations, which gives gold a reason to stay supported. But I still do not want to chase the top blindly, because price is moving close to sell-zone liquidity near 4,420 - 4,440. The cleaner idea is to let gold hunt that upper liquidity first, then watch the pullback. If price returns to 4,373.868 and holds, buyers may use that zone as a springboard for another push higher. If the pullback is deeper, 4,335 - 4,345 becomes the next area where momentum may refill. This bullish idea becomes weak only if gold loses 4,335 and fails to recover. A stronger invalidation would be a clean close below 4,290, because that would break the base of this recovery structure. Key price zones to watch Current reaction area: 4,390 - 4,400 Main demand / buy scalping zone: 4,373.868 Momentum refill shelf: 4,335 - 4,345 Liquidity reset base: 4,290 - 4,300 Bullish confirmation zone: clean hold above 4,373.868 First upside liquidity target: 4,420 - 4,440 Main upside target: 4,450 Invalidation: clean close below 4,290 Do you see gold hunting the sell-zone liquidity first, or should buyers wait for a cleaner pullback into 4,373 before trusting the next push?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Felix_MacroTrade
2
XAUUSD 1H — Structure, Support & Key LevelsGold is currently trading around 4,376, with price holding above the marked support zone and moving within an ascending structure. 🔹 Support zone: 4,300–4,320 This is the main area highlighted on the chart. A sustained hold above this zone keeps the broader structure constructive. 🔹 Current area: 4,375–4,380 Price is testing this area near the Ichimoku cloud, making the next candle reactions important. 🔹 First level: around 4,420 A move through the current area could bring this level into focus. 🔹 Resistance zone: 4,460–4,485 This is the major upper zone marked on the chart, with 4,480 highlighted as the projected target point. The chart projection shows a possible short-term pullback around the current area before continuation toward 4,420 and potentially the 4,460–4,485 resistance zone. For me, the key is how price reacts around 4,375 and whether the support structure remains intact.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by apex_Legends005
1
can we b u y ??XAU/USD | 4H GOLD ANALYSIS By analyzing the 4-hour chart of Gold (XAU/USD), we can see that price has moved exactly according to our previous scenario and continued its bullish movement, reaching as high as 4396. 🎯 Meanwhile, the release of U.S. Retail Sales data below market expectations put additional pressure on the U.S. Dollar, which consequently increased demand for Gold. This situation has made the Federal Reserve’s job even more challenging, as weaker economic data could provide more room for a less restrictive monetary policy, while inflation and overall economic conditions still need to be taken into consideration. 📈 WEEKLY OUTLOOK: Considering the current market structure and fundamental conditions, the outlook for Gold remains bullish this week. We are still holding on to the targets identified in our previous analysis and will closely monitor price reactions around key technical levels. 🟢 As long as the bullish market structure remains intact, further upside toward higher targets remains possible. Wishing you all a successful and profitable trading week. 🤝📈 📊 تحلیل جدید طلا | XAU/USD با بررسی چارت طلا در تایم‌فریم 4 ساعته (4H) مشاهده می‌کنیم که قیمت دقیقاً مطابق با سناریوی تحلیل قبلی ما حرکت کرده و پس از ادامه روند صعودی، حتی تا محدوده 4396 نیز رشد داشته است. 🎯 از سوی دیگر، انتشار داده‌های خرده‌فروشی آمریکا (Retail Sales) پایین‌تر از انتظارات بازار، فشار بیشتری بر دلار آمریکا وارد کرد و در نتیجه شاهد افزایش تقاضا برای طلا بودیم. در چنین شرایطی، کار برای فدرال رزرو نسبت به گذشته پیچیده‌تر شده است؛ چراکه ضعف برخی داده‌های اقتصادی می‌تواند فضای بیشتری برای سیاست‌های پولی انبساطی ایجاد کند، در حالی که همچنان باید روند تورم و شرایط اقتصادی را نیز در نظر بگیرد. 🔹 سناریوی هفته: با توجه به ساختار فعلی بازار و شرایط بنیادی، چشم‌انداز طلا در این هفته همچنان صعودی به نظر می‌رسد. 📈 ما نیز همچنان روی تارگت‌هایی که در تحلیل قبلی مشخص کردیم پایبند هستیم و واکنش قیمت به محدوده‌های مهم تکنیکال را زیر نظر خواهیم داشت. 🟢 در صورت حفظ ساختار صعودی، ادامه حرکت به سمت تارگت‌های بالاتر محتمل خواهد بود. برای همه شما یک هفته معاملاتی موفق و پرسود آرزومندیم. 🤝📈
TVC:GOLDLong
by Ashkan-Shademani
SILVER 4HRXAGUSD 4H Chart Analysis – Shavyfxhub Strategy (Silver 4HR) Current Price: ≈ 64.87 Market Structure Silver is in a recovery phase on the 4-hour timeframe after making a clear Absolute Low (ATL). Price found a strong bottom (marked ATL) and has been trending higher along a rising green trendline. It is currently consolidating just above the key green demand zone. Multiple red horizontal Supply Roofs are stacked overhead. The structure shows higher lows since the ATL, which is constructive. Key Levels (Shavyfxhub Style) Supply Roof / Resistance: 66.44 → Nearest Supply 69.30 → Intermediate Supply Roof 72.71 → Higher major Supply Roof Demand Floor / Support: 64.37 – 62.60 → Key Demand zone (current area) Rising green trendline (dynamic demand from the ATL) Lower support remains the ATL area Current Bias Bullish, as long as price holds above the rising green trendline and the 62.60–64.37 Demand zone. Price is currently sitting at a critical support confluence after the recovery from the ATL. Holding this area keeps the bullish structure intact. Scenarios Bullish continuation: Hold above 64.37 / rising trendline Break and close above 66.44 Opens the path toward 69.30 and potentially 72.71 Corrective pullback: Break below the 62.60–64.37 Demand zone and rising trendline Would open a deeper retest toward the ATL area Summary (Shavyfxhub View) Structure = Recovery from ATL with rising trendline support Immediate focus = Reaction at the 64.37 – 62.60 Demand zone Critical resistance = 66.44 → 69.30 → 72.71 Critical support = Rising trendline + 62.60–64.37 Silver remains in a constructive bullish recovery structure. Holding the current Demand zone keeps the door open for a push toward the higher Supply Roofs.
EIGHTCAP:XAGUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Gold Technical Analysis Strategy | Bullish Momentum Building, WaGold Technical Analysis Strategy | Bullish Momentum Building, Watch for 4442 Breakout Fundamentals: Gold strengthened again this week, primarily driven by a weaker dollar and cooling market expectations for further Fed rate hikes. Latest US inflation data largely met expectations, and market expectations for the Fed to maintain interest rates unchanged in September have significantly increased, further pressuring the dollar and enhancing gold's attractiveness. Meanwhile, global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves. Coupled with geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding US debt and monetary policy, long-term demand for gold remains supported. Since August, gold has returned to around $4400, and overall bullish sentiment is clearly recovering. Technical Analysis: Observing the 1-hour chart, gold previously underwent a prolonged period of low-level consolidation before breaking upwards and gradually forming a new upward structure above 4310. While the price is currently facing some resistance in the 4430-4450 area, the pullback has not damaged the overall bullish pattern. The chart clearly shows that the price is moving along an upward channel and has recently formed a head and shoulders bottom-like structure. After the right shoulder was completed, it is retesting the neckline area. The RSI has returned above 50, indicating a recovery in short-term bullish momentum. Personally, I remain bullish. As long as the 4310-4320 area isn't decisively broken, I prefer to interpret the current correction as a consolidation phase within an uptrend rather than a trend reversal. Trading Strategy: 📌 XAUUSD｜Gold 🟢 Buy Zone: 4360-4370 🎯 First Target: 4400-4420 🚀 Core Target: 4442 🔥 If the price strongly breaks through and holds above 4442, further upside potential is expected. At that point, pay close attention to any new breakout extensions. I prefer to wait for a pullback confirmation before entering the market, rather than blindly chasing the price at high levels. The most important thing for gold right now is whether the bulls can truly conquer the 4430-4442 area. Once the breakout is confirmed, the technical structure will open up further upwards. ⚠️ The above is for technical analysis and personal opinion only. Gold prices are highly volatile, and actual trading still requires consideration of position sizing and risk management. Next week, I will continue to develop strategies around key support and breakout levels. If you are also following gold, feel free to give this a like and follow. We will continue to discuss market trends. Truly valuable opportunities often come from planning ahead, not from chasing the market after it has started.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Riley_XAU
3
Writing XAUUSD | GOLD BULLISH MARKET STRUCTUREGold is showing a clear recovery from the recent 4,310–4,320 low, followed by strong bullish momentum and a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Price has now entered a consolidation phase around 4,375–4,380, suggesting that the market is preparing for its next directional move. The key level to watch is 4,406. This area is acting as major resistance and represents an important structural barrier. A strong candle close above this level, followed by confirmation, would strengthen the bullish scenario and could signal continuation toward the 4,440–4,450 resistance zone. On the downside, the 4,350–4,360 area remains an important demand zone. A pullback into this region followed by bullish rejection could provide another opportunity for buyers, while a sustained break below this zone would weaken the current bullish structure. Key Levels Support / Demand: 4,350–4,360 Major Resistance: 4,406 Bullish Breakout Target: 4,440–4,450 Major Invalidation Area: Below 4,350 Market Outlook: Bullish above the 4,350–4,360 demand zone. Confirmation above 4,406 would increase the probability of a continuation toward 4,440–4,450. Traders should wait for price confirmation rather than entering solely on anticipation. Risk Management: Use appropriate position sizing and define risk before entering any position. Market conditions can change rapidly, so confirmation and disciplined risk management remain essential. Educational purposes only — not financial advice.
TVC:GOLDLong
by X_Mr_Henry
3
Natural gas might be ready for the breakoutNatural gas is getting to the end of the withdrawal season showing extremely low volatility compared with Crude oil. Usually, such low volatility might translate into the a volatile price swing, especially in case of testing the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, as shown on the chart. The pullback from this level may trigger the counter reaction and the begining of the seasonal pullback rally. Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk.
ICMARKETS:XNGUSDLong
by Stanislav_Bernukhov_Exness
Buying Gold on Every Dip Today!Following a sustained rally, bullish sentiment regarding profit-taking has intensified. Market expectations for interest rate cuts have already been priced in, meaning the positive impact is gradually being realized. With the market awaiting the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes this week, there is room for a temporary rebound in the US dollar and Treasury yields, which is exerting downward pressure on gold prices currently trading at elevated levels. While geopolitical tensions provide a floor for prices via safe-haven demand, they are no longer sufficient to drive prices to new highs, increasing the likelihood of short-term volatility and consolidation. The early-session rebound that broke the 4400 mark represents a technical retracement following the initial surge. On the daily chart, the overall pattern remains one of high-level oscillation, with significant resistance near previous highs—specifically at 4430 and subsequently at 4450. Although short-term indicators have returned to bullish territory, repeated attempts to breach upper resistance levels have lacked follow-through; caution is advised regarding a potential pullback after the rally, and the recommendation for the US trading session remains to sell into strength. 【Trading Recommendation】 Short at 4430–4435; stop-loss at 4450; targets at 4400–4380.
TVC:GOLDShort
by rjycmx
1