XAU/USD 10 August 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As I mentioned in my analysis dated 06 August 2026 whereby I mentioned price printed a bearish CHoCH but I would be monitor depth of pullback.
Price did not pullback with any significance, therefore, I will not classify the previous iBOS. I have however marked this is in red for illustration purposes.
Price has since printed higher. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted horizontal line.
Price is currently trading within a fractal high and internal low.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation. Price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,371.840.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: The Importance of the $4,400 Level for Gold!Gold recorded a rise of about 7% during last week’s trading, marking its best weekly performance in seven months. Prices moved back toward levels near $4,341 per ounce, representing the strongest weekly close for gold in almost two months.
The key question now is whether this positive momentum will continue or if the recent rally is merely a temporary reaction to the slowdown in the US labor market, which has reduced the likelihood of further interest rate hikes.
To answer this question, we need to closely monitor the key technical level at $4,400 and whether gold can successfully break above it. This level represents a confluence of several technical resistance factors, including:
A descending trendline resistance extending from April 2026
A horizontal resistance level connecting multiple previous highs and lows
The 100-day moving average, as shown on the attached chart
Therefore, this is a critical level to watch. As we await further clarity on the direction of US interest rates, price reaction around this zone will be key. A successful breakout above it would signal continued bullish momentum, while failure to break through would suggest the downtrend may persist the-importance-of-the-4400-level-for-gold.
CF1! White Gold Awaken: Silence Broken in CottonThe Great Silence in White Gold Ends: Is a $2,777 Breakout Imminent for Cotton?
Technical and macroeconomic dynamics continue to shape the trajectory of Cotton Futures. Following aggressive profit-taking and supply-demand imbalances that began in March 2022 at the $2,499 level, persistent selling pressure drove the commodity down to a bottom of $1,777 by May 2025. The technical rebound from this support and the subsequent recovery have laid the groundwork for a macro-scale Cup and Handle pattern. The current consolidation in shorter timeframes reflects the formation of the handle, representing a healthy correction that reinforces the prevailing primary trend.
From a macroeconomic perspective, rising global input costs, elevated Synthetic Fiber (Polyester) substitution costs driven by crude oil volatility, and yield concerns stemming from adverse weather in key producing regions like the U.S. and China serve as strong tailwinds for cotton prices. Conversely, persistent high interest rates globally continue to weigh on retail and textile end-demand, while elevated inventory levels stand as the primary downside risks to this bullish thesis.
On the monthly timeframe, cotton maintains a robust technical structure, favoring a progressive move toward higher pattern targets over the coming months. Within this bullish outlook, the $2,500 level serves as a major psychological and technical resistance band where temporary selling pressure and profit-taking may emerge. Once this consolidation phase completes and momentum resumes, secondary upside targets at $2,590 and $2,680 are projected to unfold, paving the way toward the ultimate Cup and Handle target at $2,777 in the medium term. 
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XAU/USD H1 — Bullish Structure with Liquidity Sweep SetupGold is currently trading within a clear bullish market structure on the H1 timeframe, with price forming higher highs and higher lows after the Market Structure Shift (MSS) around the 4300 area.
🔹 Market Structure Shift (MSS):
The break above the previous structure around 4300–4305 confirmed a bullish shift in market structure. After this breakout, price continued to print higher highs, supporting the overall bullish bias.
🔹 Bullish Trendline:
The ascending trendline is providing dynamic support. Price has respected this trendline multiple times, particularly around the 4315–4320 region. As long as this trendline remains intact, the broader H1 structure remains bullish.
🔹 Buy-Side Liquidity:
Significant Buy-Side Liquidity is resting above the previous high around 4370–4373. This is an important upside liquidity pool and can act as a potential draw for price.
🔹 Strong Resistance:
The 4360–4363 region is marked as strong resistance. Price has already reacted from this area, showing that sellers are defending this level. A clean H1 break and close above this resistance would strengthen the bullish continuation scenario.
🔹 Current Price Reaction:
Price recently rallied from approximately 4315–4320 toward the 4360 resistance area. After touching the resistance, the latest candles are showing a bearish reaction, suggesting a short-term retracement may occur before the next directional move.
🔹 Sell-Side Liquidity:
There is visible Sell-Side Liquidity around 4315–4317. If price fails to break the 4360 resistance, the market could first move lower to sweep this liquidity before attempting another bullish expansion.
🔹 Fair Value Gap:
A large Fair Value Gap (FVG) is marked between approximately 4210–4230. This represents an important imbalance created during the previous bullish displacement. Although it is considerably lower than current price, it remains a major H1 imbalance/support zone.
🔹 Bullish Continuation Scenario:
If price holds above the ascending trendline and successfully breaks the 4360–4363 resistance, the next major objective is the 4370+ Buy-Side Liquidity. A successful liquidity sweep could then potentially open the way toward the 4400 psychological level.
🔹 Bearish Retracement Scenario:
If 4360–4363 continues to reject price, a retracement toward the 4315–4317 Sell-Side Liquidity is technically possible. This would be a liquidity sweep rather than an immediate confirmation of a full bearish reversal.
📌 Overall Outlook
H1 Bias: Bullish 📈
The bigger structure remains bullish due to the MSS + ascending trendline + higher-high/higher-low formation. However, price is currently sitting beneath a major resistance zone, so a short-term liquidity sweep toward 4315–4317 is possible before the next bullish expansion.
Key levels:
🟢 Support / SSL: 4315–4317
🔴 Strong Resistance: 4360–4363
🎯 Buy-Side Liquidity: 4370–4373
🚀 Major Upside Target: 4400
🔵 Major H1 FVG: 4210–4230
The key confirmation is 4360–4363: a clean breakout favors continuation toward 4370+ and potentially 4400, while rejection can send price back toward the 4315–4317 liquidity zone. Gold ($XAUUSD) Daily: Apex Decision NodeGold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) Daily: Apex Decision Node at Upper Channel Resistance Following 200-EMA Reclaim
### 🪙 Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) Daily Technical Matrix (Ref: XAUUSD_2026-08-10_09-32-32.png)
We are deploying an updated Daily (1D) structural framework on Gold Spot ( OANDA:XAUUSD ). Following a powerful rebound off the major horizontal floor at **3,954.893**, price action has successfully reclaimed its key moving averages and advanced directly into a major dynamic decision junction inside the highlighted yellow zone.
Gold is currently trading under firm buy-side momentum at **4,354.195 (+0.28%)**, pressing directly against the upper descending channel boundary.
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### 🔍 Technical Architecture & Confluence Node:
Our quantitative setup highlights a crucial structural test inside the yellow circle:
1. **Moving Average Reclaim (EMA 17 & 200):** Bullish momentum drove price action above both the **17-period EMA (red line at 4,157.204)** and the institutional **200-period EMA (purple line at 4,285.538)**, converting these key lines into dynamic support floors.
2. **Descending Channel Ceiling Test (Blue Line):** The active rally has collided with the primary descending trendline (upper blue channel boundary) near **4,360.00 – 4,400.00**, setting up an immediate breakout vs. rejection scenario.
3. **Primary Structural Base:** The broader multi-month consolidation remains anchored above the horizontal static support ceiling at **3,954.893**.
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### 🛡️ Strategic Operational Scenarios (Blue vs. Red Arrow Vectors):
* **Scenario A — Bullish Channel Breakout (Blue Arrow):** A decisive daily close above the upper blue trendline (clearing **4,400.00**) confirms a major structural trend reversal, opening upside target corridors toward **4,600.00** and **4,800.00**.
* **Scenario B — Dynamic Channel Rejection (Red Arrow):** Overhead supply absorption at channel resistance would trigger a corrective pullback to retest the reclaimed **200-period EMA (4,285.538)** or the **17-period EMA (4,157.204)** to gather fresh demand.
### 📊 Tactical Parameters Summary:
* **Current Bias:** Neutral-Bullish / Apex Resistance Testing Node
* **Key Dynamic Resistance Ceiling:** 4,360.00 – 4,400.00
* **Immediate Dynamic Support (200-EMA):** 4,285.538
* **Secondary Dynamic Base (17-EMA):** 4,157.204
* **Macro Horizontal Floor:** 3,954.893
---
📊 **ChartPro Data**
*Precious Metals Architecture, Moving Average Confluences & Systematic Risk Management.*
⚠️ **Disclaimer:** For educational and informational purposes only. This active market study represents a personal trading framework and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Crude oil daily analysis 10/08/2026Oil prices extended gains as uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz kept geopolitical risks elevated. West Texas Intermediate traded near $78 a barrel after gaining more than 5% over three sessions. Iran said a deal with Oman to establish a shipping route through Hormuz was close, but warned that the waterway would not reopen immediately. Meanwhile, renewed attacks on a tanker and Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery added to supply concerns. With around a fifth of global oil and gas supplies normally passing through Hormuz, continued disruption could keep upward pressure on oil prices.
From a technical perspective, crude oil remains under pressure, with price trading below the 100-day SMA, keeping the broader trend bearish. However, price has stabilised around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $76.60 after bouncing from the 78.6% level near $72.76, while the Stochastic oscillator is turning higher from oversold territory, suggesting that short-term momentum is improving. The Bollinger Bands remain relatively wide, indicating elevated volatility, although the recent price action points to consolidation. A sustained break above $79.30 could open the way toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $82, while a move below $76.60 would expose the $72.76 support area. Overall, the broader outlook remains bearish, but the oversold conditions leave room for a short-term recovery.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness.
XAUUSD daily analysis 10/08/2026Gold held above $4,300 an ounce after surging more than 7% last week, supported by weaker-than-expected US jobs data that reduced expectations of near-term interest-rate hikes. The softer data also weakened the dollar, further supporting gold. Investors now await US inflation data for further clues on the Fed’s rate path. Gold is also benefiting from strong buying, with hedge funds increasing bullish positions, Chinese gold ETFs seeing continued inflows and China’s central bank extending its gold-buying streak. Geopolitical tensions remain an additional support for the metal, while markets now focus on upcoming US inflation and PPI data for the next major catalyst.
From a technical point of view, gold has entered a stronger short-term bullish phase after breaking above the sideways channel boundary at $4,200 and reclaiming both the 50- and 100-day SMAs. Price is now trading around $4,355, slightly above the 100-day SMA near $4,342, a key technical development. However, the Stochastic oscillator is deeply overbought, suggesting the recent rally may be stretched and vulnerable to a short-term pullback. Price is also pressing against the upper Bollinger Band, reinforcing the possibility of consolidation. If the breakout holds, the next key upside target is around $4,400, with $4,200 as the first major support. Overall, the short-term outlook has turned bullish, although the overbought conditions increase the risk of a temporary correction.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness. XAU/USD – Bullish Recovery Breakout SetupXAU/USD – Bullish Recovery Breakout Setup
Gold is showing a strong recovery from the 4,076 support zone after forming a higher-low structure and holding above the rising trendline. The latest bullish impulse has pushed price into the cloud, indicating that buyers are attempting to regain control after the previous corrective phase.
Price is now approaching a key resistance area. A confirmed breakout and sustained close above the cloud would strengthen the bullish structure and could open the path toward 4,546 as the first major resistance, followed by 4,702. As long as price continues to respect the rising trendline and the 4,076 support zone, the recovery structure remains favorable.
If the Bullish Structure Holds
🟢 1st Resistance: 4,546.00
🟢 2nd Resistance: 4,702.00
🔴 Primary Support: 4,076.00
Market Structure Insight: The transition from a prolonged corrective phase into a higher-low recovery structure suggests improving bullish momentum. A confirmed move above the would provide additional confirmation for continuation toward the higher resistance levels.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always wait for confirmation before entering a trade and apply proper risk management in all market conditions. Long 
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Welcome Back . XauusdHi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader.
I've been studying Gold since 2019.
My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups.
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Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you.
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
Very strong weekly close to the upside. Last week’s weekly high is an interesting target, with both Daily and H4 aligned bullish.
For now, I’d like to maintain a bullish bias and potentially take advantage of something on the lower timeframes.
I’m targeting the weekly highs first, then the 4440 area above the trap.
It’s Monday, so we take it easy.
Let’s see if Gold comes back into the discount zone of the latest H4 impulse. That could give us a safer setup.
Otherwise, we simply wait for the next few days. The market isn’t going anywhere.
Patience. Always.
Peaceeee ✌️
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📬 If you have any questions, feel free to message me. I'll be happy to help.
🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET.
In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day.
HAPPY TRADING
MANAGE YOUR RISK
BE PATIENT Long 
Long
[XAUUSD H1] Retest 4,270 Demand Floor Intraday Pullback Before Expansion to 4,375 Peak
1. FUNDAMENTAL SNAPSHOT
Gold (XAUUSD) maintains a strong medium-term bullish trajectory near $4,342/oz as cooling labor market indicators and subtle softening in U.S. Treasury yields continue to underwrite non-yielding asset demand. However, following a powerful markup expansion that tapped a fresh Higher High (HH) peak at 4,375.871, institutional participants are engineering a necessary structural pullback. This controlled sell-off serves to rebalance liquidity, clear out over-leveraged breakout buyers, and mitigate unmitigated H1 demand blocks before accumulating volume for the next macro impulse wave.
2. TECHNICAL & SMC STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
- Trend Indicator & Structural Target: The H1 trend bias remains decidedly Positive (Upper Band: 4,402.16 | Mid Band: 4,281.335 | Lower Band: 4,160.51), driven by an established chain of bullish market structure breaks culminating at the 4,375.871 HH ceiling.
- Primary Demand Floor 1 (Upper Blue Box: 4,260.0 - 4,275.0 Area): Price is executing a corrective wave from 4,342.920 toward this immediate H1 demand block. The primary zigzag projection anticipates a technical bounce off this ~4,270 support floor to test and potentially sweep the 4,375.871 liquidity peak.
- Secondary Discount Demand Floor 2 (Middle Blue Box: 4,190.0 - 4,205.0 Area): Should selling volume break below 4,260, price is projected to flush deeper into this high-confluence discount demand zone (~4,200 level) to absorb Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL).
- Ultimate HTF Defense Base (Lower Blue Box: 4,120.0 - 4,135.0 Area): Represents the major structural floor (~4,130 level) safeguarding the macro bullish trend.
3. IF-THEN PLAYBOOK
- Primary Long Scenario (Immediate Retest Play):
+ IF price completes the pullback into the 4,260.0 - 4,275.0 Demand Box AND prints lower-timeframe reversal confirmation (M5/M15 CHoCH) -> THEN execute long entries targeting 4,320.0 and 4,375.871 (HH Peak Sweep).
- Secondary Long Scenario (Deep Liquidity Flush Play):
+ IF price breaks below 4,260.0 and flushes down to the 4,190.0 - 4,205.0 Demand Box -> THEN look for heavy long accumulation setups targeting 4,270.0 and a macro recovery toward 4,375.0.
- Structural Invalidation: Decisive H1 candle close below 4,115.0.
Strategic Metrics Summary:
- Current Floating Price: 4,342.920
- Primary Buy Zone (Demand 1): 4,260.0 - 4,275.0
- Secondary Buy Zone (Demand 2): 4,190.0 - 4,130.0
- Major Upside Target (HH Peak): 4,395
Will Gold bounce cleanly at the 4,270 demand floor, or are you waiting for a deeper sweep at 4,200? Share your trade plan below! Long 
XAUUSD – Consolidating Above the H4 Turn, Targeting 4494?XAUUSD is maintaining a primary bullish structure after reaching the H4 Turn and entering a sideways accumulation phase just above the base zone around 4350–4355 . Buying pressure still appears dominant, suggesting that the market has not lost its bullish framework and is simply rebalancing before the next expansion leg. The key scenario is for price to extend toward 4386 , then pull back to 4370 to gather momentum, before continuing higher toward 4422 and potentially 4494–4496 over the next 2–3 days if momentum remains intact.
From a chart-logic perspective, the 4350 area is acting as a short-term turn / demand zone , while the next upside levels are positioned around 4380, 4420 , and the broader target zone near 4500 . This suggests a step-by-step expansion structure : rally, pause, shallow retest, then continuation. From an SMC/institutional perspective, this is a typical market behavior where price holds its premium structure but still needs controlled pullbacks to reload order flow before moving higher.
On the macro side, gold remains supported by a favorable backdrop: gold is currently trading around 4,358.64 USD/oz, up 0.35% on the day, up 8.92% on the month, and up 30.38% year-on-year. The main driver is weaker U.S. labor data, which has pushed the market to reduce expectations of a September Fed rate hike to around 44% , while the DXY remains near 99.64 and is down 1.57% over the month , easing dollar pressure on gold. In addition, uncertainty around Hormuz/Iran continues to support defensive flows into bullion.
From a strategy standpoint, this is not an ideal zone to chase aggressively. A more effective approach is to use small-sized entries at the key turn zones , then drop to M1/M5 for precise confirmation of entry, take-profit, and stop-loss placement. If price reacts as expected around 4386 and then retests 4370 without breaking structure, that would strengthen the case for the next expansion leg toward 4422 and then 4494.
Core idea: the main trend remains bullish , but the market may not move in a straight line. The priority is to wait for technical reactions around the turn zones and participate with the trend, rather than chasing price in the middle of an expansion move.
COT 101 · Lesson 01 — How to Read the COT Report🔵 THE THREE GROUPS
1) Commercials — the hedgers. Producers and consumers of the physical commodity. A gold miner selling futures to lock in a price, a farmer protecting his harvest, an airline fixing fuel costs. They are not in the market to speculate. They are insuring a business. This is why the name: hedgers.
2) Non-commercials — the big speculators. Hedge funds, CTAs, managed money. They have no interest in the physical metal. They are trend followers: they buy strength and sell weakness, and their positions grow as a move matures.
3) Small traders (nonreportable) — everyone below the CFTC's reporting threshold. Often called "dumb money" — but that is lazy thinking. In thin markets, this bucket can simply hold small commercials who never reached the reporting size. Judge them case by case, not by label.
🔵 WHY COMMERCIALS AND NON-COMMERCIALS ARE OPPOSITES
This is the single most important sentence in the whole report: the two large groups are structurally on opposite sides — and you read them exactly that way.
The hedger sells strength (locking in good prices) and buys weakness (securing cheap input). The speculator buys strength and sells weakness (riding the trend). So when commercials are heavily short, they are usually short INTO strength — and that is not bearish, it is business. When non-commercials are heavily long, they are long INTO strength — and that is not confirmation, it is momentum at its most crowded.
Same report, same week, two opposite readings. Mixing them up is the classic beginner error.
🔵 THE NET NUMBER
Forget raw long and short. What matters is net: longs minus shorts. One line per group. A rising commercial net means hedgers are covering shorts or adding longs — institutional supply is shrinking. A falling non-commercial net means the trend-following crowd is bailing out — often the first sign a move is exhausting.
🔵 WHY THE CHART MATTERS
The COT report measures futures positions. So the price series it explains is the futures contract — for gold, that is GC1! (COMEX), not a spot or CFD feed. If you overlay COT data on a CFD chart, you are explaining one market with the positioning data of another.
Next lesson: why commercials are the side you actually want to follow — and where the "smart money" label really belongs.
Educational content only. Not investment advice. Education 
XAUUSD: Bullish Breakout or Liquidity Sweep Next?🔹 XAUUSD is showing a strong bullish market structure, with successive higher highs and higher lows following multiple breakouts above previous resistance areas. Price has recently pushed into the 4,360–4,370 resistance zone and is consolidating below it, suggesting a pause after the latest expansion. The chart also highlights a liquidity area around 4,281, while the 4,230–4,240 region appears as an important support zone. From a price action and technical analysis perspective, holding above these structural areas keeps the broader bullish structure intact.
🔸 A possible bullish scenario could develop if XAUUSD confirms acceptance above the current resistance, potentially exposing higher liquidity near the upper highlighted area. Alternatively, rejection from resistance could lead to a retracement toward the 4,281 liquidity area or deeper support around 4,230–4,240. Traders may wait for clear price confirmation and market-structure behavior before considering any trade. If the key support zone fails, the bullish structure could weaken and a deeper correction might develop.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions. Short 
XAU/USD – Bulls Control, Heading New Week!Hello traders, let's take a look at the chart!
OANDA:XAUUSD has broken out of a long-standing bearish trendline and is currently holding above the Ichimoku Cloud. To me, this is a clear sign that the H8 market structure is shifting toward a more bullish outlook.
In my view, the 4,170–4,270 zone is the most critical area right now. If a pullback occurs early next week but buyers successfully defend this zone, I favor the scenario where the price extends its upward momentum.
Macroeconomic factors are also supporting this rally; weakening US employment data has cooled expectations of Fed rate hikes, putting pressure on the USD.
🎯 Target 1: 4,500
🎯 Target 2: 4,600
I wouldn't recommend chasing the price here. A clean retest of the support level would create a much more favorable setup, as shown on the chart.
The bullish scenario would weaken if the price loses the 4,270 level, and especially if the H8 candle closes back below 4,170.
AURICVERSE View: The breakout has occurred; now we just need to see if buyers can hold the breakout zone. If they do, the 4,500–4,600 range remains my preferred target.
How are you reading this structure? Share your view below. Good luck! Long 
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