Shorting MNQ at the APEX level (aka supply zone)I'm looking for shorts in MNQ. The overall upswing has already started to fail. Looking for price to look for liquidity at lower level... If it gets to that Apex level... it's a short.
ShortFutures market
Short
XAUUSD (Gold) Setup: Upward Channel Breakout & Multi-Target LongGold (CFDs on Gold, 2-hour timeframe) has broken cleanly out of a rising parallel channel, successfully completing a market structure shift (CHoCH / BOS) and holding above the primary Buying area. Price action indicates a continuation setup targeting overhead resistance
Key Technical Highlights:
Channel Breakout & Structure: After consolidating inside an ascending channel and establishing a solid support base near 4,000 - 4,050, price surged upward, confirming bullish momentum.
Structural Objectives:
Target 1: Overhead resistance zone near 4,500
Target 2 (Extended): Major target objective at 4,670
Trading Plan / Setup
Bias: Bullish (Buy / Long)
Entry Zone: Current pullback / retest region (~4,402)
Stop Loss (SL / Invalidation): Placed below structural support / invalidation zone (~4,297)
Take Profit (TP): Scaled across objectives at 4,500 (Resistance) and 4,670 (Target)
Educational Disclaimer: This analysis is published for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial or investment advice. Trading CFDs and commodities involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Always perform your own due diligence and manage your risk accordingly before executing any trades
Long
$XAUUSD m15 Short Trading IdeaPrice is reacting from the m15 Supply zone as we approach today's CPI release.
Doing short setup here, targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which is confluent with the recent low.
#NFA #DYOR
Short
The Breakout That Lied to YouA breakout is one of the most attractive moments on a chart.
Price moves through resistance, momentum suddenly increases, candles become stronger, and it feels like the market has finally confirmed the direction. This is where many traders enter, expecting the move to continue.
But sometimes the breakout isn't the real signal.
The reaction that follows is.
Why Breakouts Attract Traders :
A resistance level becomes important because traders can see it. After several attempts to break above the same area, another push through that level can look like confirmation.
Traders see the breakout and start thinking about continuation.
But a price moving above resistance doesn't automatically mean the market has accepted higher prices.
The important question is what happens next.
Does price remain above the level?
Does it continue building higher?
Or does it quickly fall back inside the previous range?
When the Breakout Fails :
Imagine price has been moving sideways below resistance for some time.
Eventually, it breaks above the level.
Buyers enter.
Momentum increases.
The breakout looks convincing.
Then price starts falling.
It returns to the previous resistance zone and eventually moves back below it.
Now the situation has completely changed.
Traders who bought the breakout are no longer sitting in a position of strength. Some may begin closing their trades, while others may be forced out as their stops are triggered.
What looked like the beginning of a new trend can quickly become a move in the opposite direction.
The Reaction Tells the Story :
This is why the candle that breaks resistance shouldn't always receive all the attention.
Watch what happens afterward.
If price breaks above resistance and holds there, the market is showing acceptance.
If price breaks above resistance and immediately returns below it, the market is showing rejection.
The difference can be small on the chart, but significant for the trader.
A breakout is an event.
The reaction tells you whether that event actually mattered.
Where Traders Get Trapped :
Failed breakouts are interesting because they can create one sided positioning.
Traders who entered after the breakout are expecting higher prices. When price suddenly moves back below the level, their original idea is no longer behaving as expected.
That can create additional selling as positions are closed.
This doesn't mean the market is deliberately targeting individual traders.
It simply means that when many participants respond to the same price level, their decisions can influence what happens next.
What Should You Watch? :
Instead of treating every breakout as an automatic entry, pay attention to the behavior around the level.
Does price hold above resistance?
Does the breakout have follow through?
Does price quickly return inside the range?
Does volume support the move?
How does price behave after the first rejection?
These questions can provide much more information than the breakout candle alone.
Conclusion :
A breakout can look convincing and still fail.
That doesn't make breakouts useless. It simply means that crossing a level is not the entire story.
The market has to prove that it can accept the new price area.
So the next time you see a breakout, don't rush to decide what it means.
Watch what happens after it.
The breakout wasn't the signal. The reaction was.
Education
My thoughts on goldI scored. this trade and im thinking the first zone will hit but the 2nd zone isnt. bad either.
Long
A SELLA sell at 4388-93, sl at 4406 and tp at 4265,
Gold failed to close above 4400-4406 after several attempts failed
and rather closed below indicating bullish exhaustion so selling looks more favorable.
Short
XAUUSD H1 SMC: Retracement to Trendline Precedes Path to 4,450Macro Structure & Order Flow EvolutionFollowing a major liquidity sweep below the 4,000.00 structural low, XAUUSD established a strong bullish cycle. The Break of Structure (BOS) above HTF Buy-Side Liquidity (~4,120.00) handed control to institutional buyers. Price has since expanded upward within a well-defined ascending channel (guided by the red dynamic support line and orange upper boundary), consistently forming higher highs and higher lows.SMC Key Zones & Current Market DynamicsPoint B Liquidity Sweep: Price previously retested Point B, sweeping sell-side liquidity beneath Point A while filling the underlying Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 4,200.00–4,240.00.Current Action: Following recent BOS/CHoCH structural breaks above 4,320.00, price reached a local high at 4,380.365 before initiating a short-term consolidation.Red Target Supply Zone: An institutional supply zone and liquidity pool remain unfilled at 4,440.00–4,460.00 (red box).Intraday Direction Forecast & Detailed Trade PlanToday's bias is strongly bullish, but avoiding FOMO buys at current local highs is critical. Price is expected to follow the projected yellow path, pulling back to test dynamic support before initiating the next macro expansion:Directional Forecast: Deep internal retracement to trendline support $\rightarrow$ Institutional buying reaction $\rightarrow$ Bullish expansion to red target zone.Buy Entry Zone: 4,260.00 – 4,300.00 (Confluence of dynamic red support trendline and unmitigated lower-timeframe FVG/Demand).Stop Loss (SL): 4,215.00 (Safely anchored below the Point B / 4,220.00 liquidity sweep structural low).Take Profit 1 (TP1): 4,380.00 (Recent local high / internal buy-side liquidity).Take Profit 2 (TP2): 4,450.00 (Primary target: Red institutional supply zone).Execution Strategy: Allow price to pull back into the 4,260–4,300 demand pocket. Look for lower-timeframe (M5/M15) confirmation via a CHoCH or BOS before executing a Long position targeting 4,450.00.
Long
XAUUSD 4404 squeeze — buyers walking into 4435?XAUUSD 4404 squeeze — buyers walking into 4435?
That reclaim above 4,400 is the story now.
Gold pulled back, held the 4,356 - 4,361 structure, then pushed straight back into 4,404. That is not weak price action. Sellers tried to kill the move. They didn’t.
Now price is sitting right under the Order Block around 4,430 - 4,435.
That is the tricky part.
Main bias stays bullish while gold holds above 4,356. We already had the BOS, then the pullback, then buyers stepped back in. Clean enough. But I’m not chasing longs straight into 4,430. That zone can easily become a trap if late buyers jump in too high.
Macro is helping gold stay bid for now. The market is waiting for US inflation data, USD is still stuck in a range, oil remains firm, and Fed hike expectations for September have cooled a bit. So yeah, gold has room to keep pressing higher. But CPI can shake this chart fast.
The cleaner play is simple. If price dips toward 4,390 - 4,404 and holds, buyers can try to attack 4,430 again. Break that area, and 4,450 becomes the next draw. After that, the big psychological target is 4,500.
Trading scenario:
Buy idea only if gold holds above 4,390 - 4,404 and gives a clean continuation reaction.
Entry zone: 4,390 - 4,404 after confirmation
Stop loss: below 4,356
TP1: 4,430 - 4,435
TP2: 4,450
TP3: 4,500
No hold above 4,390, no buy. Don’t chase into the OB.
If gold closes hard below 4,356, this bullish setup gets messy. Then price can slip back toward the lower Order Block around 4,323 - 4,330.
For now, I’m reading this as BOS first, OB test next.
You think gold clears 4,435 before CPI shakes it?
Long
XAUUSD: Uptrend Still IntactXAUUSD maintains a bullish structure on the H1 timeframe, characterized by a series of higher lows and continued support from an ascending trendline. The most recent pullback failed to break the support zone around 4,360, indicating persistent buying pressure.
Notably, the 4,360 level represents a confluence of the trendline and short-term support. If the price holds this area, I expect XAUUSD to regain momentum and move up to test the 4,430–4,440 range.
From a fundamental perspective, safe-haven demand and expectations of a less hawkish Fed continue to underpin gold prices. However, upcoming US inflation data could trigger significant volatility.
Main Trend: Bullish | Support: 4,360 | Target: 4,430–4,440
Long
US Oil Holds Above Key Support – Can Bulls Extend the Recovery?Market Structure
The 4-hour chart has transitioned from a bearish decline into a bullish recovery. Higher highs and higher lows have developed since the recent bottom, suggesting that buying pressure is strengthening and market sentiment has improved.
Key Resistance
First Resistance: 84.20–84.60
This is the immediate resistance area where the current recovery is testing selling pressure. A decisive breakout would reinforce bullish momentum.
Second Resistance: 85.50–86.20
If buyers successfully clear the first resistance, this zone becomes the next upside objective and could accelerate the recovery toward previous swing highs.
Key Support
First Support: 83.00–83.30
This recent breakout area now serves as the first line of defense. Holding above it would preserve the current bullish structure.
Second Support: 81.80–82.20
A deeper pullback into this demand zone could attract fresh buying while maintaining the overall recovery trend.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment has turned cautiously bullish.
The recent rebound reflects improving confidence after the previous decline, while the current consolidation suggests buyers are absorbing supply before attempting another move higher. Momentum remains positive unless key support levels are lost.
Please share your view below:
Do you expect US Oil to break above 84.60 and continue the recovery? Or will sellers defend this resistance and trigger another short-term pullback?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly.
XAUUSD - CPI Update , Don't trade the level—trade the reaction a🟡 Hello Goldies —
Apologies for the late update, but we were celebrating Singapore's National Day weekend.
XAUUSD has staged an aggressive recovery from the 3,940–3,880 demand region and is now approaching a major weekly supply zone at 4,340–4,550, which also aligns with the descending higher-timeframe trendline. Weekly momentum is improving, but the broader structure remains bearish until price can reclaim the 4,550–4,775 region.
The primary setup is therefore to watch for a liquidity sweep into supply followed by bearish confirmation, targeting 4,250, 4,000 and potentially 3,944. Alternatively, a clean breakout and successful retest above 4,550 would open the path toward 4,775 and 4,892. Patience and confirmation are key at this decision zone. 🎯🐂🐻
🔑 Key Levels
🔴 Supply: 4,340–4,550
🟢 Breakout trigger: 4,550
🎯 Major resistance: 4,775 → 4,892
Lets Deep Dive :
📅 Weekly (W1) — Rally Into Major Supply ⚠️
The weekly chart is the most important piece here.
Price has bounced aggressively from the 3,940 area and is now around 4,411.
However, price is entering the major weekly supply zone around 4,340–4,550.
The long-term descending trendline is also approaching this area, creating strong confluence.
Weekly momentum is still negative, but the histogram is improving, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening.
The key issue: momentum recovery ≠ confirmed trend reversal.
🔴 Major resistance
4,340–4,550
Above that:
🎯 4,774
🎯 4,892
🎯 5,417
🟢 Major support
3,944–3,883
Below that:
🎯 3,595
🎯 3,220
🎯 3,000
Weekly Bias
🐻 Bearish-to-neutral while below 4,550–4,775
A weekly close above 4,775 would materially weaken the bearish thesis.
📈 Daily (D1) — Bulls Have Momentum, But Supply Is Close
The daily structure should now be treated as a counter-trend recovery until proven otherwise.
Price has recovered strongly from the July lows, meaning aggressively shorting every candle is dangerous.
🟢 Bullish scenario
If price establishes above 4,450–4,550:
➡️ 4,775 becomes the next major magnet.
A daily close above 4,775 would be a much stronger indication that the broader bearish structure is changing.
🔴 Bearish scenario
If price rejects the weekly supply:
➡️ 4,250–4,200
➡️ 4,000
➡️ 3,944
Daily Bias
🟠 Bullish correction inside a larger bearish structure
⏰ 4H — Watch the Reaction, Not the Candle
The 4H execution model is simple:
🟢 Bullish
If price breaks and holds above the upper supply boundary:
4,550 → 4,775
Look for a breakout → retest → continuation rather than chasing the initial candle.
🔴 Bearish
If price sweeps above the highs and gets rejected:
4,450–4,550 → rejection
Potential downside:
🎯 4,250
🎯 4,100
🎯 4,000
The best short setup would be a liquidity sweep + bearish displacement + retest, rather than blindly selling into strength.
⏱️ 1H — Execution Timeframe 🎯
The 1H should be used to confirm what the higher timeframes are doing.
🐻 Short setup
Look for:
Liquidity sweep → rejection → bearish ChoCH → retest
Preferred area:
🔴 4,450–4,550
Targets:
4,300 → 4,200 → 4,000
🐂 Long setup
Don't fight the weekly supply unless price proves itself.
Look for:
🟢 Break above resistance
🟢 Retest
🟢 Higher low
🟢 Bullish displacement
Then:
4,550 → 4,775
🎯 THE GAME PLAN
🔴 Primary Scenario — Sell the Reaction
4,450–4,550 supply
⬇️ Liquidity sweep
⬇️ Bearish confirmation
⬇️ Retest
⬇️ Shorts
🎯 TP1: 4,250
🎯 TP2: 4,000
🎯 TP3: 3,944
🎯 TP4: 3,883
🟢 Alternative Scenario — Bullish Breakout
If Gold accepts above 4,550 and holds the level on a retest:
🚀 4,775
Then:
🚀 4,892
A sustained move above 4,892 would significantly challenge the current bearish macro structure.
🎯 Game Plan
"We're not chasing the rally. We're waiting for Gold to tell us whether 4,550 is a launchpad or a trap.."
📚 For Educational Purposes Only. This is not a financial advise.
⚠️ Not financial advice — always manage your risk and trade responsibly.
Short
XAUUSD — 4,317 Is the Real TestXAUUSD — 4,317 Is the Real Test
Gold is back above 4,400, and this move has that strong bullish feeling again — but I would still be careful about chasing the top of the candle too late.
Price has been building a clear bullish leg since the earlier breakout from the lower range. We saw BOS after BOS, then gold pushed into the 4,400 area while buyers kept defending each pullback. That tells me the short-term structure is still controlled by buyers, especially with momentum staying firm and the daily RSI not looking exhausted yet.
But here is the part I am watching closely. After a strong move like this, the market often needs to breathe. It may push slightly higher into 4,433.545, collect buy-side liquidity, then pull back toward the nearest order block around 4,317.985 - 4,340. For newer traders, that pullback is not automatically bearish. Sometimes it is simply price coming back to test whether the breakout has real support underneath it.
My main view is still bullish while gold holds above 4,317.985. If this order block holds, price may build another continuation toward 4,433.545 first, and then the larger psychological target near 4,500. The CPI data ahead can bring sharp volatility, so confirmation around the pullback zone matters more than chasing the first reaction.
This bullish idea becomes weak if gold loses 4,317.985 and fails to recover. Below that, price may revisit the previous pullback zone near 4,233.820 before buyers can reset.
Key price zones to watch
Current reaction area: 4,400 - 4,412.200
Main demand / order block zone: 4,317.985 - 4,340
Bullish confirmation zone: clean hold above 4,317.985
First upside liquidity target: 4,433.545
Main upside target: 4,500
Lower support if buyers fail: 4,233.820
Major lower support zone: 4,080 - 4,106.750
Invalidation: clean close below 4,317.985
Do you think gold needs to retest 4,317 before the next push, or can buyers drive straight toward 4,500 after CPI?
Short
GOLD 15MIN CHART SETUP XAUUSD 15-Minute Chart Analysis – Shavyfxhub Strategy
Current Price: ≈ 4,413
Market Structure
Gold remains in a clear bullish ascending structure on the 15-minute timeframe.
A strong green ascending trendline has supported price throughout the move.
A red ascending trendline is acting as dynamic resistance.
The chart note confirms the core Shavyfxhub concept: “every 15min break is a retest”.
Price recently pushed up to the 4,433 area (local Supply) and is now pulling back slightly.
Multiple purple circles mark previous successful reaction points along the trendlines.
Key Levels (Shavyfxhub Style)
Supply Roof / Resistance:
4,433 – 4,435 → Current local Supply Roof
Upper red ascending channel resistance
Demand Floor / Support:
4,398 – 4,376 zone (nearest horizontal supports)
Rising green ascending trendline (main dynamic demand)
Current Bias
Bullish, as long as price holds above the green ascending trendline and the 4,376–4,398 support zone.
The structure is still making higher highs and higher lows. The current pullback is a normal retest within the rising channel.
Scenarios
Bullish continuation:
Hold above 4,376–4,398 / green trendline
Break and close above 4,433
Targets the upper red channel lines (4,460–4,500 area)
Short-term correction:
Rejection from 4,433
Deeper retest of 4,398 → 4,376 or the rising green trendline
Structure remains bullish as long as the ascending demand holds
Summary (Shavyfxhub View)
Structure = Clean bullish ascending channel
Key concept = Every 15-minute break is a retest
Immediate focus = Reaction at 4,433 Supply
Critical support = 4,376–4,398 + rising green trendline
Critical resistance = 4,433
Price is in a healthy bullish structure. The next key test is whether buyers can clear 4,433 or if a deeper retest of the ascending demand occurs first.
Long
XAUUSD: Buyers Stay in Control, 4,460 Back in SightXAUUSD maintains a clear bullish structure on the H1 timeframe, characterized by a series of higher lows and a rising trendline that continues to provide solid support. Buying momentum is also recovering following the pullback from the recent peak.
The 4,370 level is currently a key mark. If the price holds above this area and the trendline remains intact, I expect the bulls to maintain the upper hand, pushing XAUUSD back to test the 4,430–4,460 range.
Fundamentally, gold continues to draw support from safe-haven demand and monetary policy expectations, though volatility could spike around upcoming US economic data releases.
Main Trend: Bullish | Support: 4,370 | Target: 4,460
Long
That's incredible! Gold is experiencing an epic frenzy!Regarding gold, the broader trend has been analyzed repeatedly; the price is currently in an upward cycle following the confirmation of a local bottom in the 3943–3960 range. After an initial rebound to 4202, the price pulled back and consolidated. In the short term, it is fluctuating due to US-Iran tensions, but the medium-term outlook remains firmly bullish, with initial targets at 4200 and the channel resistance at 4500.
Following consolidation last Friday, the price opened higher this morning on positive sentiment but drifted lower during the European session; for the US session, we anticipate a dip-and-recover pattern. Short-term support lies at 4040, with strong support at 4030–4022; a break below these levels targets 4010–4000. Short-term resistance is at 4060, with strong resistance at 4080; a break above these levels targets 4100–4120.
Regarding trading strategy: our long position initiated at 4052 during the European session reached 4072; for the US session, we continue to favor long positions on pullbacks.
Strategy 1: Buy near 4030; stop-loss at 4010; targets at 4080–4100.
Long
Gold Bull Market Returns, But Watch Out for the Trap!Gold Technical Analysis: Yesterday, gold exhibited a dramatic V-shaped reversal. It dipped to a low of 4065 during the session, then surged to the 4265 level where it faced significant selling pressure and pulled back sharply. After testing the key support at 4025, a surge of buying interest drove a strong rally, resulting in a daily close of 4244 with a solid, full-bodied bullish candle, signaling a concentrated release of bullish momentum.
It is important to note that this week's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is still pending; data stronger than expected could rapidly shift interest rate expectations and exert downward pressure on the current rally, meaning the fundamental outlook remains subject to change. Overall, the short-term trading strategy for gold favors going long on pullbacks and going short on rallies. Key resistance levels to watch are 4300–4330, while key support levels are 4200–4180.
Gold Trading Strategy Reference:
Short Position Strategy:
Strategy 1: Initiate short positions (betting on a decline) in batches near 4300–4310, allocating 20% of the position size; set stop-loss at 4330; target 4250–4230, with a potential further drop to 4210 if the level breaks.
Long Position Strategy:
Strategy 2: Initiate long positions (betting on a rise) in batches near 4200–4210, allocating 20% of the position size; set stop-loss at 4180; target 4250–4280, with a potential further rise to 4300 if the level breaks.
