Long
XAU/USD - Bearish Takes Pullback StructureHi traders, what are your thoughts on this consolidation zone below 4,400?
OANDA:XAUUSD is losing momentum after its previous rally. The price is constantly being blocked by the downward sloping resistance line, while the 4,390–4,400 area has yet to be convincingly reclaimed by buyers.
On the H1 timeframe, I'm leaning towards a correction to the 4,300–4,340 zone, which has both an upward support line and a notable previous reaction zone.
🎯 Target zone: 4,300–4,340
If the H1 timeframe breaks the resistance line and holds firmly above 4,400–4,420, this short-term bearish scenario will weaken.
AURICVERSE View: This still leans more towards a technical pullback than a major trend reversal. For now, the reaction around 4,400 will determine whether sellers have enough strength to pull gold back to the 4,340 region.
How are you reading this structure? Share your view below. Short 
BTC 63,500 Flipped From Invalidation to Reclaim TriggerOn 10 August I published 63,500 as the level that would change my mind on bitcoin, and said it was the only one that would. It closed below on 12 August and has closed below every session since. The read that level governed is off.
What the same number does now is the opposite: a daily close back above 63,500 re-arms the 10 August bullish leg. Same level, both directions. This week's open is the first thing worth watching against it.
Price ran into the bottom of the mode area I have marked at 63,680-64,485 on the CME contract and did not hold there, with the point of control at 63,700 sitting inside the band. So bulls did try. Trying is not taking it, and I want more than one push into that band before I give it to them.
The timing of a reclaim is what tells me whether the base into mid-September I flagged 15 August is a call or a working hypothesis. The number was published before the outcome, which is the only way a call means anything.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie. Long 
XAUUSD | Bullish Structure Remains IntactGold continues to maintain its bullish market structure following a strong recovery from the 4,313–4,304 liquidity zone. Price is currently consolidating around 4,390–4,405, while the ascending trendline remains well respected.
Key Levels
Resistance: 4,405–4,418 → 4,430
Short-term Support: 4,372
Buy Zone: 4,345–4,360
Major Liquidity: 4,313–4,304
Market Scenario
The current price area could produce another short-term correction before the next bullish expansion. A retracement towards 4,372, or deeper into the 4,350 area, could allow the market to rebalance and potentially sweep additional liquidity.
As long as buyers continue to defend this structure, the main upside targets remain 4,400 → 4,418 → 4,430.
A clear break below 4,345 would weaken the short-term bullish outlook and increase the likelihood of a deeper move towards the 4,313 liquidity zone.
Sphyn View:
The overall bias remains Bullish. Rather than chasing price around 4,400, I prefer to wait for a controlled pullback into support before looking for continuation towards 4,430. Long 
## Gold – 2H Chart Analysis## Gold – 2H Chart Analysis
### 1. Current structure
Gold is currently around **4,403** and has made a strong recovery from the **4,240–4,260** area.
However, the important point is that price is now approaching the **upper resistance/trendline around 4,430–4,450**.
At the same time, your lower indicator is showing a **negative divergence**:
* Price has moved back toward the previous highs.
* Momentum has **not confirmed the same strength**.
* The momentum peaks are declining.
That makes the current rally vulnerable to a reversal.
### 2. Most important zone
**4,350–4,370 = critical support zone**
> **"Strictly below 4350 market become weak."**
Rate this level **very important — 9/10**.
As long as Gold remains above 4,350, the bullish structure is still alive.
But a **2H candle close below 4,350**, followed by failure to reclaim it, would significantly change the picture.
---
## Bearish scenario
Blue projection is technically reasonable.
### If 4,350 breaks:
**4,320 → 4,280 → 4,240 → 4,180 → 4,100**
The first move could be relatively sharp because 4,350 is currently acting as the structural support for the latest recovery.
The important distinction is:
**Break below 4,350 = correction confirmed**
while
**Break below 4,240 = much deeper bearish structure.**
There is still a valid bullish alternative.
If Gold holds **4,350** and breaks:
### **4,430–4,450**
with a strong 2H close, the negative-divergence setup becomes much weaker.
Then I would look for:
**4,450 → 4,480 → 4,520+**
A sustained breakout above the upper trendline would invalidate your immediate bearish projection.
| Factor | Assessment |
| -------------------- | -------------------- |
| Current trend | 🟢 Bullish |
| Near-term momentum | 🟡 Weakening |
| Resistance | 🔴 4,430–4,450 |
| Support | 🟢 4,350–4,370 |
| Negative divergence | 🔴 Present |
| Risk of correction | **High** |
| Bullish continuation | Possible above 4,450 |
| Bearish confirmation | **Below 4,350** |
### Setup rating: **8.5/10**
The better confirmation is:
**4,350 breaks → retest of 4,350 from below → rejection → short-side structure.**
That would give much better confirmation than anticipating the fall.
**4,403 current**
➡️ **4,430–4,450:** resistance/rejection zone
⬇️ **4,350:** decision point
⬇️ **4,320**
⬇️ **4,280**
⬇️ **4,240**
⬇️ **4,180–4,100** if selling accelerates.
Conversely:
**4,350 holds + 4,450 breaks decisively → bearish setup invalidated → bullish continuation.**
So, **4,350 is the level I would watch most closely**, rather than trying to predict the exact top.
**Disclaimer:** This is a technical analysis of the attached chart for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Wolfe-wave/trendline/divergence setups can fail, and the stated levels should be treated as technical reference points rather than guaranteed targets. Always use independent confirmation and appropriate risk management.
Short 
Gold Surged—Don't Chase It! Here’s Your PlanDuring early Asian trading on Monday (August 17), spot gold prices fluctuated upwards and are currently trading near $4,405 per ounce. Last Friday, spot gold briefly retraced to a weekly low near $4,310. Just as the bears seemed poised for victory, unexpectedly weak US retail sales data instantly reversed the tide; gold staged a textbook V-shaped recovery, closing at $4,375.80 per ounce—a weekly gain of approximately 0.8%. This movement was driven by a combination of cooling US economic data, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While bullish sentiment is clearly intensifying, the market outlook remains heavily dependent on shifts in expectations regarding Fed policy; the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes this week will be a key focus.
On the 1-hour chart, the price spiked and then retreated during early trading. Intraday, the $4,355 level warrants attention; a drop below this point would likely confirm a peak on the daily chart, potentially leading to a test of the $4,300 level. Overall, the recommended short-term strategy is to prioritize selling on rallies while considering buying on pullbacks as a secondary option. Key resistance lies in the $4,417–$4,420 range, while immediate support is found around the $4,300–$4,310 zone.
Gold Trading Strategy Reference:
Short Position Strategy:
Strategy 1: Sell (go short) in batches near $4,415–$4,425 (allocating 20% of the position); set stop-loss at $4,440; target $4,380–$4,350, with a potential further drop to $4,310 if the level breaks.
Long Position Strategy:
Strategy 2: Buy (go long) in batches near $4,310–$4,315 (allocating 20% of the position); set stop-loss at $4,290; target $4,350–$4,370, with a potential rise to $4,390 if the level breaks. Short 
XAUUSD — Sell From 30M ResistanceFundamental Analysis
Gold is supported by a softer U.S. dollar and fading expectations for a September Fed hike after weaker U.S. jobs, inflation, and retail-sales data. Spot gold has remained firm near $4,400, while traders now look toward the Fed’s July meeting minutes for the next policy signal.
Technical Analysis
On the 30M chart, XAUUSD is trading near 4,396 after recovering from the 4,350 area. Price is now approaching the marked 4,399–4,410 resistance zone while remaining below the broader descending trendline. The chart also shows an FVG around 4,375–4,388 and strong demand around 4,350–4,360. If price retests resistance and fails to reclaim it, a corrective move could first rebalance the FVG before extending toward strong demand.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,396.31
Main sell zone: 4,399–4,410
Short-term support: 4,375–4,388
Short-term resistance: 4,399–4,410
Liquidity area: 4,350–4,360
Main target: 4,350–4,360
Invalidation: above 4,418
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Setup
Entry: 4,399–4,410
Stop Loss: 4,420
Take Profit 1: 4,385
Take Profit 2: 4,370
Take Profit 3: 4,350–4,360
Sell Condition
Wait for price to test the resistance zone and show bearish confirmation. A long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or 30M close back below 4,399 may confirm renewed seller pressure. If price breaks and holds above 4,418–4,420, the corrective sell setup is no longer valid.
Overall View
The broader macro backdrop remains supportive for gold as the dollar and Fed hike expectations soften. However, the 30M chart is approaching a technical resistance area after a recovery, creating room for a corrective sell. The preferred plan is to wait for confirmation around 4,399–4,410 rather than chase shorts at current price, with the FVG and 4,350–4,360 demand zone as downside objectives.
Do you expect gold to reject 4,399–4,410 and return toward the strong demand zone? Short 
Long 
XAUUSD H1: E.Q.H. Before the Final Liquidity Sweep?Global Context
Gold has maintained a strong bullish expansion after breaking through multiple structural highs.
Although short-term momentum has become more corrective, the broader H1 structure remains constructive as long as the ascending trendline and demand structure continue to hold.
The recent CHoCH indicates a temporary change in short-term momentum, but price has already reacted from the 4,320–4,340 Demand Zone and recovered toward the 4,400 EQH.
This makes the current area extremely important.
If buyers reclaim and break the 4,400 EQH, liquidity above the equal highs could fuel an expansion toward the major 4,435–4,455 BUY-SIDE LIQUIDITY zone.
Technical Playbook
The Bias: Bullish Continuation / Liquidity Expansion. The primary focus is on whether price can reclaim 4,400 EQH and continue toward the external liquidity above.
The Main Horizons: Key levels are the 4,400 EQH, 4,435–4,455 Buy-Side Liquidity, and 4,320–4,340 Demand Zone. The deeper 4,230–4,245 OB remains the next major structural support if the correction expands.
The Target Path: The preferred scenario is a short-term pullback into the 4,320–4,340 Demand Zone, followed by bullish displacement through the 4,400 EQH. A confirmed breakout could then accelerate price toward 4,435–4,455, where the external buy-side liquidity is concentrated.
Confirmation: I would look for a liquidity sweep/reclaim of the 4,400 EQH, followed by strong bullish displacement. Holding above the ascending trendline would further support the continuation scenario.
Invalidation: The bullish structure weakens if price breaks and accepts below 4,320–4,340 with strong bearish displacement. A deeper move toward the 4,230–4,245 OB would then become increasingly likely.
The real question is:
Will Gold sweep the EQH first and then attack 4,450?
Or will the 4,320–4,340 Demand Zone fail before the liquidity is taken?
EQH → Liquidity → Expansion.
That is the structure I’m watching. 👀
Educational purposes only — Not financial advice. Long 
XAUUSD scenarios – Let Price Prove ItselfPatience is the only edge here. Before considering any trade, we must let the market show its reaction to the critical levels. As long as macroeconomic data and the DXY correlation maintain the current trajectory, the primary directional bias remains bullish. However, we do not act on bias alone—we act on structure and confirmation.
While the macro view supports upside, any selling positions taken here must be viewed exclusively as extremely short-term day trades.
Do not hold shorts past the daily close.
🔑 Two High-Probability Scenarios:
🟢 Bullish Setup 1 (Breakout & Retest):
Wait for price to break and hold above the previous week's high (4444.0).
Once this major ceiling is cleared, patiently wait for a clean Pullback or precise Retest of this broken level. That is our trigger to enter a buy position.
🟢 Bullish Setup 2 (Support Rejection):
If the market corrects first, keep a sharp eye on the 4310 Major Support. We are looking for a distinct Price Action rejection (such as a bullish engulfing or long lower wick) on this green zone.
If confirmed by H1/M15 timeframes and volume, this offers a much larger Risk-to-Reward (RR) opportunity for a long entry.
📌 Execution Levels:
Invalidation (SL): 4279.0. If this level is broken, the bullish thesis is entirely void.
Short-Term Target: 4564.0. The primary objective for the coming days.
💡 Execution Mindset:
We do not chase price. We wait for a confluence of factors: Higher timeframe structure, lower timeframe entry trigger, optimized position sizing, and a confirmed candlestick pattern. The market determines the timing; we simply execute when the probabilities align.
⚠️ Risk Warning:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Gold (XAUUSD) is highly volatile and correlated with macroeconomic events and the USD index. Always manage your position sizing strictly according to your personal risk tolerance, respect your invalidation level without hesitation, and never risk capital you are not fully prepared to lose. Long 
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Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG toward the 4449.71 resistance area.The previous GOLD scenario remains broadly valid, although the internal wave structure requires a minor adjustment.
The smaller wave "3" extended and completed significantly higher, around 4448.99. I now consider the decline that followed to be the development of the smaller corrective wave "4".
However, the correction may not be complete yet. GOLD could continue lower toward the 4279.70 support area, where wave "4" may eventually form its bottom.
It is also possible that the corrective low is already close and the next advance will begin from current levels. For this reason, I am now watching closely for a reliable bullish reversal structure.
Once wave "4" is complete, I expect the smaller bullish wave "5" to develop. It should break above the 4448.99 high and complete intermediate wave "C", which is unfolding within higher-degree wave "B".
My nearest target is the resistance area around 4449.71. This is the first reference level for wave "5", although a decisive breakout above the previous high could allow the bullish move to extend further.
The invalidation level for the current impulsive wave count is 4168.50. Wave "4" should not enter the price territory of wave "1", so a sustained move below this level would require a complete reassessment of the scenario.
Gold is currently retreating as investors take profits following the recent strong rally. At the same time, weak U.S. employment data and unchanged producer prices have reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September. Therefore, the current correction does not rule out another bullish move once it is complete.
Manage your capital properly and wisely! Enter trades only based on reliable patterns! Long 
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THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Not a bad start to the week even though we didn't get that low to then go long, but the defence box was hit and we did get a lovely RIP from that region before the tap and bounce.
We now have a support level at the 4404-10 level which will need to break to go lower, while resistance is at 4430-4 which is where we are anticipating a potential pull back in to support.
As mentioned in the KOG Report, we're going to take this day by day on the indicators as the general consensus in the team is risk and uncertainty, so for that reason, until we break out, I'm not exposing much to gold. Other pairs however, working extremely well.
From Camelot yesterday:
RED BOX TARGETS AND BIAS:
BREAK ABOVE 4390 for 4404✅, 4410✅, 4420✅ and 4431 in extension of the move
BREAK BELOW 4370 for 4365, 4359, 4355, 4345 and 4340 in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG 
Long
XAUUSD H1: Bullish Setup Above 4,406, Key 4,412–4,428 Zone Today📊 XAUUSD H1 Technical Analysis
Gold is showing a strong recovery after sweeping the 4,311 support area and reacting sharply from the lower Fibonacci levels. The H1 structure has shifted back toward the upside, with price breaking the descending trendline and currently trading around 4,406.
The most important area now is the 4,412–4,428 Order Block. This zone will determine whether Gold continues toward the previous ATH around 4,450 or faces another rejection.
Here are the two scenarios I am watching:
🟢 SCENARIO 1: BUY ON BULLISH BREAKOUT
If Gold gets an H1 candle close above 4,428, I will look for a bullish continuation.
Entry: 4,429–4,433
Stop Loss: 4,411
TP1: 4,440
TP2: 4,450
TP3: 4,460
The key confirmation is an H1 close above the Order Block, followed by a successful retest of 4,412–4,428 as support.
I would not chase the price if it breaks sharply without a retest. Waiting for confirmation gives a cleaner risk-to-reward setup.
🟢 SCENARIO 2: BUY THE PULLBACK
If price enters the 4,412–4,428 Order Block and produces a clear bullish rejection, such as a strong bullish engulfing candle or rejection wick, buyers may use this zone as support.
Entry: 4,414–4,420
Stop Loss: 4,397
TP1: 4,440
TP2: 4,450
TP3: 4,460
This is the preferred setup if Gold reaches the Order Block without breaking it decisively.
🔴 SCENARIO 3: SELL FROM ORDER BLOCK REJECTION
The bullish setup becomes invalid if Gold reaches 4,412–4,428 but fails to break above it and prints a strong H1 bearish rejection.
In that case:
Entry: 4,415–4,425
Stop Loss: 4,437
TP1: 4,406
TP2: 4,390
TP3: 4,372
A clear bearish rejection from the Order Block would indicate that sellers are still defending this supply area.
🔴 SCENARIO 4: SELL AFTER SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
If Gold loses 4,372 with an H1 candle close below this level, the bullish recovery structure becomes significantly weaker.
Entry: 4,368–4,372 after a bearish retest
Stop Loss: 4,391
TP1: 4,343
TP2: 4,311
A break below 4,372 followed by a failed retest would be the confirmation that sellers are taking control again.
🎯 My Current Bias
For now, my H1 bias remains bullish, but I do not consider 4,412–4,428 a level to blindly buy.
The cleanest bullish confirmation is:
4,428 breakout → H1 close above → retest → BUY → target 4,450 ATH.
The bearish confirmation is:
4,412–4,428 rejection → H1 bearish confirmation → SELL toward 4,390 and 4,372.
The key level to watch today is therefore 4,428.
Which scenario do you think Gold will follow: breakout toward 4,450 or rejection back toward 4,390? 👇 Long 
Gold Analysis!
Regarding the broader trend for gold, we have discussed this repeatedly: prices retraced approximately 30% from the historical high of 5596 to a confirmed interim low of 3943. After an initial rebound to 4200 and a subsequent pullback to consolidate strength, a second leg of the rally began early this month; breaking above 4200 unleashed momentum, driving the price up to 4450. Currently, upward momentum has slowed following a period of choppy trading, and the price has hit a resistance zone defined by the channel; the short-term outlook targets a pullback to 4300 and potentially lower levels. The medium-term trend is a fluctuating upward climb, though with limited strength, facing resistance in the 4580–4770 range.
During the Asian session, the price fell from 4436 to 4386; the 4-hour chart shows a bearish alignment, suggesting the downtrend will continue. Short-term resistance lies at 4405, with strong resistance at 4410–4415. Short-term support is at 4386–4376, with strong support at 4367–4356; a break below this level targets 4310.
Regarding trading actions: we took a short position at 4434 during the Asian session and took profit at 4390; we are currently holding a short position opened at 4400 during the European session and will provide intraday updates if conditions change.
Strategy 1: Sell at 4405–4410; targets 4367–4356; hold if the level breaks.
