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GDP: A Short-Term Agenda from Monetary Policy?
66 0 4
GDP, D
A Short-Term Agenda from Monetary Policy?

The Fed turning on the spigot of monetary policy may have started out an objective to jump start growth, but is the objective for accommodation still so virtuous? Here we have the effective funds rate (proxy for Fed support) versus US growth and the S&P 500 (speculative returns).

GDP: More Stimulus Is Unlikely to Provide More Economic Fuel
82 0 6
GDP, D
More Stimulus Is Unlikely to Provide More Economic Fuel

A delay of a Fed rate hike seems to be the market's immediate concern when it comes to risk trends. Yet, as global growth cools, the expectation readily escalates to expectations of more stimulus. Yet, more quantitative easing, is unlikely to provide the backing the system needs. Yields are already exceptionally low and the positive influence on growth following ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel TCU, D, Short ,
TCU: DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US CAPACITY UTILIZATION RISK
21 0 2
TCU, D Short
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US CAPACITY UTILIZATION RISK

Total Capacity Utilization index, which measures the share of industrial capacities of US companies employed in actual production, has also nearly restored its crisis losses. However, the index has bounced down from the 80% mark in the recent readings, falling out of its ascending range. It is too early to conclude if it is the end of recovery in the index. ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel INDPRO, D,
INDPRO: DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION GROWTH FINE
21 0 3
INDPRO, D
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION GROWTH FINE

Industrial Production Index has been trending within its relevant ascending range since 2011 and has restored all the losses of the 2008-2009 financial crisis back in mid-summer 2013. Thus overall the Industrial production in the US is developing at a good pace, in line with the lateral uptrend in S&P 500.

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel BOPGSTB, M,
BOPGSTB: DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US TRADE BALANCE PARADIGM SHIFT
17 0 2
BOPGSTB, M
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US TRADE BALANCE PARADIGM SHIFT

Back before the 2008-2009 financial meltdown, the US trade deficit was continually ascending, as the country was consuming more and more imported goods. It was a natural course of events, since the States was widely known as world’s leading consumer. After the crisis, however, the situation changed dramatically. Following a sharp correction, US trade deficit ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel PERMIT, M, Long ,
PERMIT: DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): BUILDING PERMITS RECOVERY YOUNG
30 0 2
PERMIT, M Long
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): BUILDING PERMITS RECOVERY YOUNG

Housing market was hit the hardest back in the 2008-2009 US recession, which triggered by the burst of the mortgage backed securities bubble. Since then, US economy has restored her losses in most regards, if one is to look at the economic data. Housing market, however, started to recover only in 2012 and is yet to reach its pre-bubble performance. In line with ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel FYFSD, M, Long ,
FYFSD: DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US BUDGET BALANCE IMPROVING
13 0 2
FYFSD, M Long
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US BUDGET BALANCE IMPROVING

US budget balance suffered a significant blow during the fallout of 2008/9 us mortgage crisis. Government stimulus measures needed at the time to stop the downward spiral in US markets created a huge budged deficit. In addition, government tax revenues fell sharply (as most corporations failed to show profit, thus to pay corporate taxes). Since 2011, however, ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel HSN1F, M, Long ,
HSN1F: DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): NEW HOME SALES RECOVERY YOUNG
19 0 2
HSN1F, M Long
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): NEW HOME SALES RECOVERY YOUNG

Housing market was hit the hardest back in the 2008-2009 US recession, which triggered by the burst of the mortgage backed securities bubble. Since then, US economy has restored her losses in most regards, if one is to look at the economic data. Housing market, however, started to recover only in 2012 and is yet to reach its pre-bubble performance. It is ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel ICSA, D,
ICSA: DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): JOBLESS CLAIMS RECOVERY COMPLETE
29 0 2
ICSA, D
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): JOBLESS CLAIMS RECOVERY COMPLETE

all comments are on the chart

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel FEDFUNDS, M,
FEDFUNDS: DATA VIEW: CURRENT AND PERSPECTIVE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE
36 0 1
FEDFUNDS, M
DATA VIEW: CURRENT AND PERSPECTIVE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

Recent expectations in the media regarding Federal Reserve rate hike look a bit overblown. What the Fed is actually planning to raise is the Target Range for the Effective Federal Funds Rate. The Effective rate, however, now trades firmly below the upper border of the range (0.25%), signalling no actual pressure to raise the Target Range. The nature of this ...

JohnKicklighter JohnKicklighter PRO UNRATE, D,
UNRATE: Timing the First Rate Hike on the Fed's 'Dual Mandate'
1477 5 15
UNRATE, D
Timing the First Rate Hike on the Fed's 'Dual Mandate'

The Fed's rate hike timing is 'data dependent'. Few data points are as comprehensive and influential for determining monetary policy than the BLS's monthly labor statistics. The unemployment rate is good for the employment element of the mandate, but there is also an inflation gauge: wage growth. Will this data offer enough of a push to shift interest rate ...

JohnKicklighter JohnKicklighter PRO FEDFUNDS, D,
FEDFUNDS: Will the Central Banks Always Be There for the Market
51 2 4
FEDFUNDS, D
Will the Central Banks Always Be There for the Market

Central bank accommodation graduated from rate cuts to stimulus early in the market recovery from 2009. That support helped to keep presumed 'risk' low. However, it has also increasingly reached beyond the bounds of what it should reasonably be expected to provide the capital markets. The Fed and its global counterparts are likely to be a little less supportive in ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel ISRATIO, M,
ISRATIO: INVENTORY TO SALES RATIO - A RISK INDICATOR TO WATCH
167 0 2
ISRATIO, M
INVENTORY TO SALES RATIO - A RISK INDICATOR TO WATCH

Inventories to Sales Ratio has been rapidly ascending recently above its usual levels of 1.3. It means that Inventories have been actually growing at a higher pace than Sales over the last several months! Savvy traders would be interested in watching this ratio as a potential risk indicator of the US economy. If the ratio continues to ascend at the current ...

truetradero truetradero PRO DGS10, W, Short ,
DGS10: 10-Year US TReasury yield going lower, target at 0.70%
53 1 3
DGS10, W Short
10-Year US TReasury yield going lower, target at 0.70%

The yield on the US TNote 10-Year remains in a long term downtrend channel, looking to complete it's down wave (3) of V towards 0.70%. A break above 2.20% would invalidate this trade and a break above 3.04% would invalidate the whole bearish pattern.

truetradero truetradero PRO DGS10, W, Short ,
DGS10: 10-Year US Treasury yield downside continuation
105 1 0
DGS10, W Short
10-Year US Treasury yield downside continuation

10-Year US Treasury yield remains in a long term downtrend channel, in the process of completing downwave (3) of V near the bottom of the channel at around 0.70%. Key resistance that if broken would invalidate this bearish scenario is the 3.04% level.

BobbyBlueShoes BobbyBlueShoes CPIAUCSL, D,
CPIAUCSL: QE4 biggest risk to a bear? Possibly negative interest rates.
92 0 3
CPIAUCSL, D
QE4 biggest risk to a bear? Possibly negative interest rates.

To be transparent and clear I am short the market, fully invested. This is my further attempt to be objective. Bears will justify many reasons why QE4 is not possible. At the very least it's not probable, but in all honesty, after reading Bernanke's SA on reasons for using QE in a deflationary cycle, there is no reason the US will not go the way of Japan, by ...

guado77 guado77 GDPDEF, M,
GDPDEF: USA BUBBLE (s&p futures)  VS USA NO BUBBLE (treasury)
17 0 0
GDPDEF, M
USA BUBBLE (s&p futures) VS USA NO BUBBLE (treasury)

USA Bubble: Real GDP - S&P Future (excluding the dollar revaluation) = -112% USA NO Bubble: Real GDP - Treasury 30y (excluding the dollar revaluation) = +2.4% data up to 10/2014 THE TREASURY 30Y SEEMS TO REFLECT THE PERFORMANCE OF REAL USA ECONOMY , THE REDUCTION OF YIELD IS IN LINE WITH THE RISE OF REAL GDP AND THE STRENGTHENING DOLLAR

kocurekc kocurekc CPIAUCSL, M,
CPIAUCSL: Can't stop deflationary pressures, but markets don't care
59 0 3
CPIAUCSL, M
Can't stop deflationary pressures, but markets don't care

I was inspired by a really poorly done analysis showing the current administration's (huge successes) policy on the markets and jobless claims. Basically making the claim about how much further we can still go with jobless claims. Also wanted to play with utilizing Quandl data within Tradingview. So, I took a step back (because they only published the last 5 years ...

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