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Killy_Mel Killy_Mel PERMIT, M, Long ,
PERMIT: DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): BUILDING PERMITS RECOVERY YOUNG
28 0 2
PERMIT, M Long
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): BUILDING PERMITS RECOVERY YOUNG

Housing market was hit the hardest back in the 2008-2009 US recession, which triggered by the burst of the mortgage backed securities bubble. Since then, US economy has restored her losses in most regards, if one is to look at the economic data. Housing market, however, started to recover only in 2012 and is yet to reach its pre-bubble performance. In line with ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel FYFSD, M, Long ,
FYFSD: DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US BUDGET BALANCE IMPROVING
11 0 2
FYFSD, M Long
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US BUDGET BALANCE IMPROVING

US budget balance suffered a significant blow during the fallout of 2008/9 us mortgage crisis. Government stimulus measures needed at the time to stop the downward spiral in US markets created a huge budged deficit. In addition, government tax revenues fell sharply (as most corporations failed to show profit, thus to pay corporate taxes). Since 2011, however, ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel HSN1F, M, Long ,
HSN1F: DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): NEW HOME SALES RECOVERY YOUNG
19 0 2
HSN1F, M Long
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): NEW HOME SALES RECOVERY YOUNG

Housing market was hit the hardest back in the 2008-2009 US recession, which triggered by the burst of the mortgage backed securities bubble. Since then, US economy has restored her losses in most regards, if one is to look at the economic data. Housing market, however, started to recover only in 2012 and is yet to reach its pre-bubble performance. It is ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel ICSA, D,
ICSA: DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): JOBLESS CLAIMS RECOVERY COMPLETE
28 0 2
ICSA, D
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): JOBLESS CLAIMS RECOVERY COMPLETE

all comments are on the chart

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel FEDFUNDS, M,
FEDFUNDS: DATA VIEW: CURRENT AND PERSPECTIVE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE
36 0 1
FEDFUNDS, M
DATA VIEW: CURRENT AND PERSPECTIVE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

Recent expectations in the media regarding Federal Reserve rate hike look a bit overblown. What the Fed is actually planning to raise is the Target Range for the Effective Federal Funds Rate. The Effective rate, however, now trades firmly below the upper border of the range (0.25%), signalling no actual pressure to raise the Target Range. The nature of this ...

JohnKicklighter JohnKicklighter PRO UNRATE, D,
UNRATE: Timing the First Rate Hike on the Fed's 'Dual Mandate'
1254 5 15
UNRATE, D
Timing the First Rate Hike on the Fed's 'Dual Mandate'

The Fed's rate hike timing is 'data dependent'. Few data points are as comprehensive and influential for determining monetary policy than the BLS's monthly labor statistics. The unemployment rate is good for the employment element of the mandate, but there is also an inflation gauge: wage growth. Will this data offer enough of a push to shift interest rate ...

JohnKicklighter JohnKicklighter PRO FEDFUNDS, D,
FEDFUNDS: Will the Central Banks Always Be There for the Market
49 2 4
FEDFUNDS, D
Will the Central Banks Always Be There for the Market

Central bank accommodation graduated from rate cuts to stimulus early in the market recovery from 2009. That support helped to keep presumed 'risk' low. However, it has also increasingly reached beyond the bounds of what it should reasonably be expected to provide the capital markets. The Fed and its global counterparts are likely to be a little less supportive in ...

Killy_Mel Killy_Mel ISRATIO, M,
ISRATIO: INVENTORY TO SALES RATIO - A RISK INDICATOR TO WATCH
166 0 2
ISRATIO, M
INVENTORY TO SALES RATIO - A RISK INDICATOR TO WATCH

Inventories to Sales Ratio has been rapidly ascending recently above its usual levels of 1.3. It means that Inventories have been actually growing at a higher pace than Sales over the last several months! Savvy traders would be interested in watching this ratio as a potential risk indicator of the US economy. If the ratio continues to ascend at the current ...

truetradero truetradero PRO DGS10, W, Short ,
DGS10: 10-Year US TReasury yield going lower, target at 0.70%
50 1 3
DGS10, W Short
10-Year US TReasury yield going lower, target at 0.70%

The yield on the US TNote 10-Year remains in a long term downtrend channel, looking to complete it's down wave (3) of V towards 0.70%. A break above 2.20% would invalidate this trade and a break above 3.04% would invalidate the whole bearish pattern.

truetradero truetradero PRO DGS10, W, Short ,
DGS10: 10-Year US Treasury yield downside continuation
104 1 0
DGS10, W Short
10-Year US Treasury yield downside continuation

10-Year US Treasury yield remains in a long term downtrend channel, in the process of completing downwave (3) of V near the bottom of the channel at around 0.70%. Key resistance that if broken would invalidate this bearish scenario is the 3.04% level.

BobbyBlueShoes BobbyBlueShoes CPIAUCSL, D,
CPIAUCSL: QE4 biggest risk to a bear? Possibly negative interest rates.
91 0 3
CPIAUCSL, D
QE4 biggest risk to a bear? Possibly negative interest rates.

To be transparent and clear I am short the market, fully invested. This is my further attempt to be objective. Bears will justify many reasons why QE4 is not possible. At the very least it's not probable, but in all honesty, after reading Bernanke's SA on reasons for using QE in a deflationary cycle, there is no reason the US will not go the way of Japan, by ...

guado77 guado77 GDPDEF, M,
GDPDEF: USA BUBBLE (s&p futures)  VS USA NO BUBBLE (treasury)
17 0 0
GDPDEF, M
USA BUBBLE (s&p futures) VS USA NO BUBBLE (treasury)

USA Bubble: Real GDP - S&P Future (excluding the dollar revaluation) = -112% USA NO Bubble: Real GDP - Treasury 30y (excluding the dollar revaluation) = +2.4% data up to 10/2014 THE TREASURY 30Y SEEMS TO REFLECT THE PERFORMANCE OF REAL USA ECONOMY , THE REDUCTION OF YIELD IS IN LINE WITH THE RISE OF REAL GDP AND THE STRENGTHENING DOLLAR

kocurekc kocurekc CPIAUCSL, M,
CPIAUCSL: Can't stop deflationary pressures, but markets don't care
56 0 3
CPIAUCSL, M
Can't stop deflationary pressures, but markets don't care

I was inspired by a really poorly done analysis showing the current administration's (huge successes) policy on the markets and jobless claims. Basically making the claim about how much further we can still go with jobless claims. Also wanted to play with utilizing Quandl data within Tradingview. So, I took a step back (because they only published the last 5 years ...

QuantitativeExhaustion QuantitativeExhaustion INDPRO, W, Long ,
INDPRO: Indicators-Economic Data, Don't Knock IT Until You Have Tried It
291 11 27
INDPRO, W Long
Indicators-Economic Data, Don't Knock IT Until You Have Tried It

When looking at the Industrial production Index (one of the best forecasters of future recessions) you noticed every top over 50 years, has been marked by a significant angle divergent. @nmike a long time ago introduced me to RSI (50) and how to properly use the indicator. He just recently revisited this topic and I started looking through economic data. What I ...

SMP99 SMP99 PRO DGS10, W,
DGS10: 10 Yr Treasury Rates vs. S&P 500
2181 0 8
DGS10, W
10 Yr Treasury Rates vs. S&P 500

The rally in long dated US treasuries over the past 35 years could easily be called the greatest bull market we've seen in modern times. 10 yr rates have been trending down in a near perfect channel for almost 30 years. Calling for the end of this rally has become a popular pastime. Due to the nature being zero bound on rates, the upper trend line will with ...

charttrader charttrader PRO UNRATE, D, Short ,
UNRATE: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NOW WITHIN TOUCHING DISTANCE OF NAIRU ESTIMATE
134 3 14
UNRATE, D Short
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NOW WITHIN TOUCHING DISTANCE OF NAIRU ESTIMATE

October was the ninth consecutive month where the headline payrolls figure came in above 200k, rendering this year’s January to October period the strongest in fifteen years. The US NAIRU may be 5.2% or it may be 5.7%. But wherever it lies, the actual unemployment rate is moving swiftly towards it. Friday’s Employment Situation Report showed that the US economy ...

khboker khboker UNRATE, M, Long ,
UNRATE: unemployment vs Spy
112 0 3
UNRATE, M Long
unemployment vs Spy

Just an interesting chart

SPYderCrusher SPYderCrusher PRO NEWORDER, M, Long ,
NEWORDER: Manufacturers' Nondefense -- Rolling 12m  Percent Change Strong
150 0 6
NEWORDER, M Long
Manufacturers' Nondefense -- Rolling 12m Percent Change Strong

In the top pane is this month's latest Manufacturer's New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods, compared against the SPX, both on a Monthly timeframe. Plotted in the second pane is the rolling 12 month percent change in new orders. Note that this data is as of 6-14 but is the newest published data. This indicator is released by the Federal Reserve Board and is ...

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