US natgas prices edge up on daily output decline, rising LNG export flows
- U.S. LNG export feedgas on track to hit record high in April
- U.S. gas output on track to hit record high in April
- U.S. gas storage about 3% below five-year average
U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Wednesday on a drop in daily output and near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
Gas futures 
NG1! for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.5 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $3.022 per million British thermal units. On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest level since November 19 for a second day in a row.
Despite the small price gain, the front-month remained in technically oversold territory for a fifth straight day for the first time since October 2024.
Analysts said mild weather expected through early May should allow utilities to keep injecting lots of gas into storage.
U.S. gas stockpiles, however, were still around 3% below normal levels for this time of year after cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day in April from a monthly record of 106.2 bcfd in March.
On a daily basis, output was on track to fall by around 3.0 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary two-week low of 105.0 bcfd on Wednesday, down from a record 108.0 bcfd on April 18. Traders noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Part of the reason for the output reduction was maintenance on U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's 
KMI 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway gas pipe from the Permian basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.
Kinder Morgan has said it will be performing a turbine exchange at the Big Lake compressor station from May 13-26 that will reduce mainline capacity to around 2.2 bcfd.
Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 8.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will hold around 98.6 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. has climbed from a monthly record of 15.8 bcfd in March to 16.1 bcfd so far in April on rising flows to Venture Global's 
VG 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $12 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) benchmark in Asia, which was an 11-month low for JKM.
Week ended Apr 18 Forecast | Week ended Apr 11 Actual | Year ago Apr 18 | Five-year average Apr 18 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +64 | +16 | +86 | +58 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,910 | 1,846 | 2,412 | 1,978 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -3.4% | -3.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub | 3.01 | 3.01 | 1.79 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) | 11.52 | 11.41 | 9.11 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) | 11.77 | 12.09 | 10.06 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 75 | 68 | 102 | 118 | 112 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 62 | 69 | 51 | 49 | 46 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 137 | 137 | 153 | 167 | 158 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 106.9 | 106.8 | 106.8 | 100.1 | 97.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.3 | 7.4 | 7.6 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 115.2 | 114.2 | 114.4 | N/A | 105.4 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | N/A | 3.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 16.0 | 15.6 | 16.1 | 11.9 | 11.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 8.1 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 11.8 |
U.S. Residential | 10.8 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.8 | 30.1 | 29.9 | 31.3 | 27.5 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.1 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.7 | 23.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 79.4 | 73.5 | 72.9 | 79.6 | 90.1 |
Total U.S. Demand | 105.0 | 98.4 | 98.6 | N/A | 110.6 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 87 | 88 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 86 | 87 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 87 | 88 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Apr 25 | Week ended Apr 18 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 14 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 35 | 31 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 15 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) | 3.12 | 3.16 | |||
Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) | 2.15 | 2.25 | |||
PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) | 2.50 | 2.45 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) | 2.16 | 2.20 | |||
Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) | 2.55 | 2.62 | |||
Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) | 2.32 | 2.48 | |||
SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) | 2.57 | 2.59 | |||
Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) | 1.15 | 0.72 | |||
AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) | 1.48 | 1.54 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX) | 35.93 | 43.09 | |||
PJM West (E-PJWHDAP-IDX) | 43.54 | 52.53 | |||
Mid C (W-MIDCP-IDX) | 40.37 | 37.55 | |||
Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX) | 26.34 | 30.40 | |||
SP-15 (W-SP15-IDX) | 6.16 | 11.35 |