US NFP: Job Growth Stalled in August to 22,000. Revisions Show US Lost Jobs in June

Is the booming economy in the room with us right now? Revisions strike again with 13,000 jobs lost in June.

🔥 Payroll Growth Hits the Brakes

• The US economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, badly missing the 78,000 gain economists had penciled in. That’s the latest news on the nonfarm payrolls data from the Labor Department.
• More troubling: revisions to earlier prints revealed the economy lost 13,000 jobs in June, the first monthly payroll decline since December 2020, when the economy lost 243,000 jobs. Needless to say, the figure is raising fresh doubts about labor market strength.
• The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2% in July, reinforcing concerns that the once-resilient job market may be cracking under higher borrowing costs and slowing economic activity. Throw in there employers’ fears about the knock-on effect of tariffs on businesses.

💥 Why the Numbers Are Worrying

• Let’s talk revisions. Businesses and government agencies often submit late reports to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, meaning initial jobs data can overstate the strength of the labor market. As many as 258,000 jobs got wiped out from a two-month stretch, the previous monthly report showed.
• Fed officials are now on high alert. Chair Jay Powell previously hinted that a rate cut was on the table if the labor market slowed meaningfully. Friday’s data seems to provide exactly that signal.
• With payrolls stalling, analysts see the odds of a September rate cut soaring above 90%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Traders are now pricing in at least 50 basis points of easing by year-end.

💸 Gold Rips, Dollar Dips, Stocks Wobble

• Gold prices XAUUSD blasted to a new record high of $3,600, up 4% this week as investors piled into safe-haven assets.
• The US dollar got dunked on, with the EURUSD climbing 0.8% to $1.1750, reflecting traders’ expectations that a rate cut will eat into the buck’s ability to yield handsome returns on deposits and fixed income.
• Bitcoin BTCUSD slipped under $110,000, continuing its recent downtrend as risk appetite weakened across crypto markets.
• Stocks opened higher early Friday, following a record high for the S&P 500, but the upswing faded quickly. Traders struggled to balance hopes of monetary easing against growing fears of a broader economic slowdown. Apparently, not even the most bullish bulls were brave enough to put their money on risk.