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"Are we at the top yet ? "........ " Is it a good time to invest ? " ......." Should I buy or sell ? " These are the many questions I hear and get on the daily basis. 1000's of investors do not know when to go in and out of the market. Most of them rely on the opinion of "experts" on television to make their investment decisions. Bad idea.Taking a systematic approach when investing, could save you a lot of time and headache. If there was only a way to know when to get in and out of the market !! hmmmm. The good news is that there many ways to do that. The bad news is , are you disciplined enough to follow it ?

I coded the AK_TREND ID specifically to identified trends in the SPX             or SPY             only . How does it work ? very simply , I simply plot the spread between the 3 month and 8 month moving average on the chart.

If the spread > 0 @ month end = BUY
if the spread < 0 @ month end = SELL

The AK TREND ID is a LAGGING Indicator , so it will not get you in at the very bottom or get you out at the very top. I did a backtest on the SPX             from 1984 to 7/2/2014 (yesterday), The rule was to buy only when the AK TREND ID was green. let's look at the result:

14 trades : 11 W 3 L , 78.75 % winning %
Biggest winner (%) = 108 %
Biggest loser (%) = -10.7 %
Average Return = 27 %
Total Return since 1984 = 351.3 %
You can see the result in detail here :

Although the backtesting results are good, the AK TREND ID is not to be used as a trading system. It is simply design to let you know when to invest and when to get out. I'm working a more accurate version of this Indicator , that will use both technical and fundamental data. In the mean time , I hope this will give some of you piece of mind, and eliminate emotions from your trading decision. Feel free to modify the code as you wish, but please share your finding with the rest of Trading View community.

All the best

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// AK Trend ID Version 1.00
// This indicator simply indentifies if the market are
// in a up or down trend.
// For SPX or SPY ONLY, Time Frame = Monthly
// Created by Algokid 7/23/2014 
// Toronto, Canada

study("AK_TREND ID (M)")
input1 = 3, input2 = 8 , 

fastmaa = ema(close,input1)
fastmab = ema(close,input2)

bspread = (fastmaa-fastmab)*1.001

adline = 0

m = bspread > 0 ? lime : red

plot (adline,color = white)
plot(bspread, color = m)
barcolor( bspread > 0 ? green :red)
Good backtesting results with gold futures (GC1!) , however, this wasn't coded for that .
+3 Reply
Cool! Thank you for sharing!
+1 Reply
Very cool indicator, ty Algokid
+3 Reply
Algokid PRO HermanBrummer
Thank you Herman, I appreciate your feedback :)
+2 Reply
Thank you for your indicator. Do you have any more that you're willing to share?
+1 Reply
Algokid PRO SirRally
I'm working on a few indicators....will share them soon
+1 Reply
Thank you very much.

Could you tell me if you have a sense of this indicator works on other time frames (weekly, daily) besides the monthly one you use?

I hate to bother you with more requests, but would it be possible to calculate the CAGR for the years you tested?

You are looking at approx. 11 % per year ( from 2000 to 2014)
I do have the same indicator for using daily time frame. I will publish it soon. There's major difference between the two. I actually like the Monthly time frame better.
I'm looking forward to your improvements. Really great stuff and I appreciate you sharing it.
+1 Reply
Algokid PRO Starlord
Thank you StanLord. Really appreciate your feedback :)
hey awesome indicator bro helps me identify entry points on a 1min chart. cheers :)
+1 Reply
Algokid PRO DepeshMode
Thanks for your feedback Depesh
+1 Reply
Thank you for the indicator. Could you perhaps modify it to make it universal, ie accepting as inputs not only EMAs but also other indicators:
for ex. I would be interested to see it applied to "JMA RSX Clone ", shorttitle="RSXC_LB"; so that the histogram on the bottom of the attached screenshot would show the spread between the two relative strenghts.
Thanks and appreciate your contributions.
Really appreciate the love. I'm also from toronto, hopefully I can make this indicator better! Give me a shout. Thank you.
I am a little confused as to why so much hustle - wouldn't this be a simply MACD (3,8) ? See chart...

+5 Reply
MarxBabu ekoronin
I am using AK indicator with other few indicator combination the result is awesome!!!

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