"Are we at the top yet ? "........ " Is it a good time to invest ? " ......." Should I buy or sell ? " These are the many questions I hear and get on the daily basis. 1000's of investors do not know when to go in and out of the market. Most of them rely on the opinion of "experts" on television to make their investment decisions. Bad idea.Taking a systematic approach when investing, could save you a lot of time and headache. If there was only a way to know when to get in and out of the market !! hmmmm. The good news is that there many ways to do that. The bad news is , are you disciplined enough to follow it ?
I coded the AK_TREND ID specifically to identified trends in the SPX or SPY only . How does it work ? very simply , I simply plot the spread between the 3 month and 8 month moving average on the chart.
If the spread > 0 @ month end = BUY
if the spread < 0 @ month end = SELL
The AK TREND ID is a LAGGING Indicator , so it will not get you in at the very bottom or get you out at the very top. I did a backtest on the SPX from 1984 to 7/2/2014 (yesterday), The rule was to buy only when the AK TREND ID was green. let's look at the result:
14 trades : 11 W 3 L , 78.75 % winning %
Biggest winner (%) = 108 %
Biggest loser (%) = -10.7 %
Average Return = 27 %
Total Return since 1984 = 351.3 %
You can see the result in detail here : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-w9f8zlXunrV5dbTc5i3gJN-55vxPTySQv0ooCJCnu0/edit?usp=sharing
Although the backtesting results are good, the AK TREND ID is not to be used as a trading system. It is simply design to let you know when to invest and when to get out. I'm working a more accurate version of this Indicator , that will use both technical and fundamental data. In the mean time , I hope this will give some of you piece of mind, and eliminate emotions from your trading decision. Feel free to modify the code as you wish, but please share your finding with the rest of Trading View community.
All the best
// AK Trend ID Version 1.00 // This indicator simply indentifies if the market are // in a up or down trend. // For SPX or SPY ONLY, Time Frame = Monthly // Created by Algokid 7/23/2014 // Toronto, Canada study("AK_TREND ID (M)") input1 = 3, input2 = 8 , fastmaa = ema(close,input1) fastmab = ema(close,input2) bspread = (fastmaa-fastmab)*1.001 adline = 0 m = bspread > 0 ? lime : red plot (adline,color = white) plot(bspread, color = m) barcolor( bspread > 0 ? green :red)
for ex. I would be interested to see it applied to "JMA RSX Clone ", shorttitle="RSXC_LB"; so that the histogram on the bottom of the attached screenshot would show the spread between the two relative strenghts.