Pivot Probabilities

joebaus Updated   
This indicator gives traders historical probabilities based on how often price closed between any two pivot points.

What are the features? (as of release)
  • Get the historical statistics of how often price closed between any two pivot points.
  • Manually set your own pivot point resolution to any higher timeframe. So get the historical statistics from any pivot point you'd like.

Why would someone use this?
  • Reversion: We can more clearly see between which pivots price has highest probability of mean reversion towards.
  • Risk Management: By adding the statistics between groups of pivots, we can have a better idea of what the normal trading range for pivot points on any given asset should be. Making it easier to identify which pivot points are more likely to have extreme price movements go past.

Could you add an option to show probabilities for "x" style of pivot points?
I plan on adding more types of pivot points in the future. Check out if there are any updates to this indicator that include the pivots you're looking for. Otherwise, tell me what you're looking for in the comments here.

Why don't I see any pivot points on my chart when I apply this indicator?
This indicator does not draw pivot points on your chart. It strictly draws probabilities. So feel free to use it in combination with your favorite one.
Release Notes:
  • Get probabilities for daily, weekly, and monthly pivots.
  • Get probabilities for a specific month.
  • Switch between percentage probabilities and counts.
  • Clarification: Calculations are specifically for the last close between two pivots.
  • Text color and size inputs.
If you want to get more data loaded for the daily probabilities, I recommend using either the 2H or 3H chart. You can manually set the Resolution setting to "1 day" and use a timeframe that is less than the Daily too.
Release Notes:
  • View the binary probability that price closes above and below the central pivot based on your inputs.
  • New toggle to show or hide binary and range pivot probabilities.
  • Color and size inputs for both binary and range pivot probabilities.
  • Bug fix: crypto charts now properly show probabilities on monthly pivot.
If you want to get more data loaded for the weekly probabilities, I recommend using at least the 12H chart. You can also manually set the Resolution setting to "1 week" and use the daily timeframe to achieve the same effect.

The more data you load, the more historical pivots and price action that will be used in your probabilities. Resulting in more samples, or ideally the entire time series, included in the probability calculations.
Release Notes:
  • Bug checking plots removed. (remembered just after publishing)
Release Notes:
  • New settings menu layout. Title segments and tooltip updates.
  • Change the source data for probability calculations from close, high, low, and open. Close is default.
  • New Resolution Text shows the current month selected, the pivot resolution, and how many bars back the statistics are using in their calculations.
Release Notes:
  • New weekly pivot probabilities. Manually set your pivot resolution to W or use a timeframe lower than the daily.
  • More descriptive tooltips.
  • Pivot Resolution setting only allows W and M timeframes now. Those are the only two higher timeframe resolutions that this indicator currently works on.
When using the weekly probabilities, try to use the daily timeframe with the Pivot Resolution setting set manually to W. This will collect the most amount of data from the chart, and the more data you can include into the statistics, the more statistically significant your probabilities are.
Release Notes:
  • New Current Pivot Period and Next Pivot Period settings. Use the two different sets of independent settings to compare probabilities from two different periods.
  • New histogram visuals aid. See what the probability space looks like around the pivot points instead of trying to imagine it. Includes color, toggle, and "magnitude" settings to adjust the size of both the Current and Next Pivot Period histograms.
  • The Binary Probabilities now change color depending on which one is greater. Helps to differenciate them from the Range Probabilities.
  • New Weighted Sum Mean calculation. Helps when trying to interpret the mean of the histogram. Calculates using a combination of historical counts and set pivot period prices.
  • The "Bars Back" section of the Resolution Text has been replaced with "Counts".
  • "Counts" is a more accurate metric when finding out how much historical data Pivot Probabilities is using. Directly compare timeframes with it: if a lower timeframe starts to lose a lot of "Counts" seen in higher timeframes, then Pivot Probabilities is loading less historical data. Meaning that the odds shown are less significant, and vice versa if "Counts" starts to increase.
  • Fix: Resolution Text is now centered properly on crypto assets.
Release Notes:
New Dashboard that sums up trading probabilities based on the biased pivots strategy for Wayne's Pivots.

There are 4 trading setups for Wayne's Pivots that the dashboard will show statistics for: Bullish Bias, Bearish Bias, Bullish Range Bias, and Bearish Range Bias. The dashboard includes the following stats:
  • Profit Factor (a risk to reward ratio, how much reward you could get per unit of risk)
  • Average Profit
  • Hit Target (probability of hitting or going past the pivot exit zone)
  • Hit Stop (probability of hitting or going past the pivot stop loss)
  • Hit Drawdown (probability of entering the zone between your entry and stop loss)
  • Close @ Target (probability of closing at or past the pivot exit zone)
  • Close Mid-bias (probability of closing past the entry zone, but not inside the exit zone)
  • Close Breakeven (probability of closing at breakeven)
  • Enable or disable specific statistics in the settings.
  • Replace the probabilities with price targets by enabling the "Weighted Mean Dashboard" setting.
  • Enable or disable specific trading biases in the settings.
  • Enable or disable the entire dashboard if you like.
  • Get probabilities for the leap year week.
  • Change "Counts" to "Samples" which is the proper term.
Release Notes:
Had to add this setting after requests for it.
  • Change the position of the dashboard in the settings.
Release Notes:
  • Update indicator to Pinescript Version 5.
  • New input to change the pivot point calculation that Pivot Probabilities uses to Traditional, Classic, Fibonacci, or Woodie.
  • Full release of the Probability Dashboard. The probabilities are applied to specific biased pivot point trading strategies to give odds on the historical likelihood a setup has produced profitable trades. New strategies can now be added. Past results do not guarantee future results.
  • New Average Loss metric on Dashboard across all strategies.
  • When switching between different data sources (OHLC), the histogram will change color automatically based on your selection to easily distinguish the input. Colors can be customized individually, and manually overridden to a single color no matter the input.
  • New "Trade Odds Ratio" float settings to modify the threshold where a setup is "Good", "Okay", or "Bad". It's a calculation based on the ratio between odds of a strategy's target getting hit divided by it's odds of getting stopped out.
  • New color inputs for "Good", "Okay", and "Bad" Trade Odds Ratio Dashboard headers.
  • The Dashboard's Profit Factor will no longer display "NaN"; instead it displays "❗👆" or "❗👇" signaling when a setup has never historically hit it's stop loss or take profit pivot levels.
  • New Header and Cell Text Size inputs for the Dashboard.
  • Dashboard Style default colors updated from solarized colors to light shades of blue.
  • New Pivot Resolution Text location dropdown box to select what pivot the text is located.
  • Many settings have had their titles updated for clarity, using their proper statistics definitions.
  • The "Global Settings" is now "Probability Settings".
  • Settings titled "Ranges" are now "Bins".
  • Settings titled "Binary" are now "Binomial".
  • Remove transparency of text colors to improve readability in dark charts.
  • Default Binomial probability text size increased to large from normal.
  • Update the "Pivot Resolution", "Month", and "Week" input tooltips.
  • Add tooltip for "Histogram Size" setting.
  • Add tooltip for "Show Sample Counts" setting.
  • Add tooltip for "Weighted Mean Dashboard" setting.
Release Notes:
Quality of life update.
  • New Input settings layout.
  • Update all tooltips.
  • The "Show Counts" bool input now more accurately says "Show Frequencies".
  • The "Σwx" symbol is now "PWP", for Probability Weighted Pivot.
  • The "Weighted Mean Settings" is now the "Probability Weighted Pivot Style Settings"
  • Add inputs to adjust the dashboard's Header and Cell text colors.
Release Notes:
  • Fix visual bugs for the next weekly period probabilities. Histogram and resolution locations specifically.

Joe Baus
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