Moses Long-term Index ETF Investing Strategy

Moses is a script designed for long-term Index ETF investors.

Moses Goals.
1. Alerts you when a major crash is starting or is underway (Bear Market Signal)
2. Warn you of price events in the market that may lead to increased volatility and downward price pressure (Shock Event Warning)
3. Clearly inform you when the market is in a bull phase (growing) or bear phase (decreasing) (Bull/Bear Signal)
4. Inform you if the market is showing early signs of recovery from a crash
5. Alert you to catastrophic events, which are extreme one bar price drops (typically occurring before or during a major stock market crash)

Moses Logic.
Moses is the product of years of testing, but the application of the logic is simple.
1. Moses is designed specifically to work on a weekly chart (5 days per bar). Do not use the scripts on daily, monthly, or intraday charts
2. Moses Uses 4 Moving Average Indicators
3. Moses uses the position of price and the moving averages to determine the state of the market (Bull/Bear/Recovery)
4. Moses uses price action to determine shock events and catastrophic event warnings
5. The script is hardcoded to start trading in 1997. Why? So that the script's primary goal of avoiding crashes is tested on 3 major crashes, the Dotcom 2000, the Financial Crisis 2008, and the Corona Crash in 2020.

How Moses Works
Being able to exit the market before or during a large market crash enables you to preserve a portion of your equity from decline. Buying back into the market on a Bull Market or Early Recovery Signal enables you to enter the market at a lower price. This goal is achieved during major crashes.

As with all scripts, there are false signals which may incur a losing trade; you can see in the strategy tester results the % of Winning/Losing Trades.

Strategy Setup In Tradingview
Initial Capital $10,000
Order Size 100% of equity (this is because it is a long-term strategy with only one trade in play – you are either long or not invested, using a smaller position size means you cannot meaningfully compare a Moses strategy to a Buy & Hold Strategy)
Commission is $5 per trade (this is negligible because the strategy only trades at most once per year)
Slippage – 10 ticks

This Script Displays the 5 Main MOSES Signals Directly On Your Chart To Help Your Investing Decision Making
1. Bull Market Signal - Green
2. Bear Market Signal - Red
3. Stock Market Recovery Signal - Amber/Yellow
4. Shock Event Warning - Shock Label on Price
5. Catastrophic Event Warning - Red Catastrophe Label

Includes 5 Moses Scripts
• Moses Signals 2.0 (plots all alerts directly on the price chart)
• Moses Buy on Bull - Sell on Bear (Plots a buy on the first Bull Market Signal - Closes All Positions on a Bear Market Signal)
• Moses Buy on Bull - Sell on Catastrophe (Plots a buy on the first Bull Market Signal - Closes All Positions on a Catastrophic event)
• Moses Buy on Recovery - Sell on Catastrophe (Plots a buy on the first Recovery Signal - Closes All Positions on a Catastrophic Event)
• Buy & Hold Script (Used to compare the effectiveness of the strategies versus a Buy and Hold Strategy)

As the script has 3 Moses Strategies, the idea is that you choose the strategy that best fits the ETF you are trading.

Moses is a long-term investing strategy that has historically outperformed the US and European Major Indices for the last 24 years. There is no guarantee of future performance.

Moses has outperformed the market (buy and hold strategy) from 1997 on the:
Nasdaq 100, S&P500, Russell 3000, Nasdaq Composite, EuroStoxx 50, Italian Milano Borsa, German DAX, Paris CAC40

Moses does not outperform the market on:
Nifty 50, BSE Sensex, ASX 200, Chinese Market

Backtested Performance

Test Timeframe Jan 13 1997 - Sept 21 2021
Duration Years 24.75
Initial Investment $10,000
North America Strategy-------------------------------$ Return------------CAGR-------Total %
Nasdaq 100 Buy & Hold----------------------------$176,380-----------12.30%------1664%
Buy Bull - Sell Bear------------------$288,554-----------14.55%------2786%
Buy Bull - Sell Catastrophe---------$202,491-----------12.92%------1925%
Buy Recovery - Sell Catastrophe---$229,866-----------13.50%------2199%

North America Strategy-------------------------------$ Return-----------CAGR------Total %
S&P 500 Buy & Hold----------------------------$58,122-----------7.37%------481%
Buy Bull - Sell Bear------------------$48,544-----------6.59%------385%
Buy Bull - Sell Catastrophe $59,573-----------7.48%------496%
Buy Recovery - Sell Catastrophe $64,579-----------7.83%------546%

North America Strategy-------------------------------$ Return-----------CAGR------Total %
Russell 3000 Buy & Hold----------------------------$61,363-----------7.61%------514%
Buy Bull - Sell Bear------------------$52,957-----------6.97%------430%
Buy Bull - Sell Catastrophe---------$64,027-----------7.79%------540%
Buy Recovery - Sell Catastrophe---$71,565-----------8.28%------616%

North America Strategy-------------------------------$ Return-----------CAGR------Total %
Nasdaq Composite Buy & Hold----------------------------$112,839-----------10.29%------1028%
Buy Bull - Sell Bear------------------$123,308-----------10.68%------1133%
Buy Bull - Sell Catastrophe---------$107,699-----------10.08%------977%
Buy Recovery - Sell Catastrophe---$112,453-----------10.27%------1025%

*CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate

From a Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers
This work is provided to you for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell a particular security or a solicitation of offers to buy or sell a particular security. The author may make available certain information related to the potential price movement of particular securities. By reading this report or using the training materials, you acknowledge and agree that any reliance upon the content or data available is at your own sole risk. You are strongly advised to use your own judgment, your own research, and question everything. The information is generic in nature and not targeted to individuals or individual circumstances. The author is an independent investor and is not licensed to give formal Stock advice to the individual, run funds of any type, or accept fees for individual stock advice. The Author accepts no responsibility for loss of money for following any of the lessons or systems created. Trading of securities may not be suitable for all users of this information; if in doubt, seek a professional advisor. All use of this work is at your sole risk.