Pentarch - Cycle Phase Detection

Pentarch - Cycle Phase Detection

Pentarch detects five distinct phases of the market cycle: accumulation, markup, distribution, climax, and decline. Each phase produces a labeled event on the chart when its conditions are met. The indicator uses a four-layer confirmation system that requires regime classification, price distance, momentum validation, and bar close confirmation before any event fires. Thresholds are computed from a blend of baseline parameter arrays and percentile measurements of the current chart's history. After each event fires, the indicator tracks the outcome and adjusts its behavior based on which event types have been accurate and which have not.

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🔶 𝗢𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗩𝗜𝗘𝗪

Markets move through recurring phases. Accumulation occurs after declines when selling pressure exhausts. Markup follows as buying pressure drives price higher. Distribution develops when markup matures and early sellers begin exiting. Climax marks extreme extension where exhaustion becomes visible. Decline follows as price breaks down from distribution or climax.

Pentarch identifies these transitions through five events:

• TD (Touchdown): Detects conditions consistent with accumulation phase after a decline
• IGN (Ignition): Detects conditions consistent with markup phase beginning
• WRN (Warning): Detects conditions consistent with distribution phase developing
• CAP (Climax): Detects conditions consistent with peak exhaustion
• BDN (Breakdown): Detects conditions consistent with decline phase beginning

TD and IGN appear below candles as early-cycle events. WRN, CAP, and BDN appear above candles as late-cycle events. The Pilot Line provides a trend reference, changing color based on slope direction. Regime bar coloring shows underlying market structure. Additional signals include NanoFlow micro trend crosses and Momentum Thrust breakout arrows.

Parameter calibration uses a two-layer system. Baseline values come from hand-tuned arrays (one value per timeframe, 18 timeframes from 1-minute to annual). Adaptive values are computed from percentile measurements of the current chart's recent history across six dimensions: stochastic range, ATR-normalized distance, volume relative to average, body ratio, bar range ratio, and stochastic midpoint crossing frequency. Final thresholds blend baseline with adaptive measurement at a fixed ratio. The blend weight ramps linearly from zero to its target over a warmup window.



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🔶 𝗛𝗢𝗪 𝗜𝗧 𝗪𝗢𝗥𝗞𝗦

𝗧𝗗 (𝗧𝗼𝘂𝗰𝗵𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻)

What it does: TD fires when price shows oversold characteristics with stochastic momentum beginning to turn upward. The detection requires that price previously came from overbought conditions, ensuring TD only appears after a real decline rather than during sideways movement.

How to interpret: TD appearing suggests the decline phase may be exhausting and accumulation conditions may be present. TD does not indicate a confirmed bottom. It indicates that conditions associated with potential accumulation are present. The event may appear multiple times during extended declines before the actual low forms.

𝗜𝗚𝗡 (𝗜𝗴𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻)

What it does: IGN fires when momentum breaks out with bullish structure confirmation. Multiple conditions must align: upward momentum crossovers, price breaking recent structure, and regime shifting bullish. The detection requires recent oversold conditions, preventing IGN from firing at already overbought levels.

How to interpret: IGN appearing suggests accumulation may be resolving into markup. When IGN follows TD, this sequence suggests a potential cycle turn from decline to markup. IGN can also appear during pullbacks within an existing uptrend, suggesting potential continuation. IGN does not guarantee sustained upward movement.

𝗪𝗥𝗡 (𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴)

What it does: WRN fires when price becomes extended above the Pilot Line with overbought readings and momentum deceleration. The detection requires that price recently came from lower levels, ensuring WRN only appears after a real markup phase rather than during bear market bounces.

How to interpret: WRN appearing suggests the markup phase may be maturing into distribution. Price has moved far from the trend reference and momentum is weakening. WRN does not indicate a confirmed top. It indicates that conditions associated with potential distribution are present. Multiple WRN events may appear during extended trends before any reversal occurs.

𝗖𝗔𝗣 (𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘅)

What it does: CAP fires at extreme price extensions with large-range bars and exhaustion characteristics across all detection layers. CAP requires sustained overbought conditions and typically follows WRN. The detection includes additional spacing requirements to prevent clustering.

How to interpret: CAP appearing suggests the cycle may be approaching peak exhaustion. Extreme readings across multiple indicators combined with unusual price range suggests climax conditions. CAP following WRN strengthens the late-cycle interpretation. CAP does not guarantee immediate reversal, but indicates extreme extension that historically precedes consolidation or pullbacks.

𝗕𝗗𝗡 (𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻)

What it does: BDN fires when bearish structure breaks with downward momentum confirmation. BDN requires prior warning signals (WRN or CAP) or overbought structure before firing. This prevents BDN from appearing during already established declines.

How to interpret: BDN appearing suggests distribution or climax may be resolving into decline. When BDN follows WRN or CAP, this sequence suggests a potential cycle turn from distribution to decline. BDN does not guarantee sustained downward movement. The decline phase continues until TD appears, suggesting new accumulation conditions.

𝗣𝗶𝗹𝗼𝘁 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗲

What it does: The Pilot Line calculates a double-smoothed exponential moving average that adapts to price movement. The line changes color based on slope: green when rising, red when falling, orange when flat or easing (decelerating within a trend).

How to interpret: Price position relative to the Pilot Line provides context for cycle events. Early-cycle events (TD, IGN) typically occur near or below the line. Late-cycle events (WRN, CAP) typically occur with price extended above the line. The slope direction indicates the current trend bias. Orange coloring during a trend suggests momentum may be decelerating even though direction hasn't changed.

𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗿𝘀

What it does: When enabled, candle bodies are colored based on regime classification. Green indicates bullish regime, red indicates bearish regime. When cycle events fire, the event color temporarily overrides the regime color for that specific candle.

How to interpret: Regime colors provide visual context independent of cycle events. Sustained green bars suggest bullish structure. Sustained red bars suggest bearish structure. When you see an event-colored candle (purple TD, teal IGN, yellow WRN, etc.), this indicates a cycle event fired on that bar.

𝗡𝗮𝗻𝗼𝗙𝗹𝗼𝘄

What it does: NanoFlow displays micro trend alignment crosses when the fast EMA relationship (EMA9 vs EMA21) aligns with price position relative to the Pilot Line. Bullish crosses appear below price when EMA9 is above EMA21, the candle closes green, and price is above the Pilot Line. Bearish crosses appear above price under opposite conditions.

How to interpret: NanoFlow provides micro-structure confirmation independent of cycle events. When NanoFlow aligns with a cycle event (e.g., bullish NanoFlow appearing near IGN), multiple layers of trend structure are confirming. NanoFlow can also highlight continuation conditions between events, showing that micro momentum remains aligned with the broader regime.

𝗠𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗺 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁

What it does: Momentum Thrust arrows mark potential breakout points where price exceeds the recent range with expanding volatility and aligned momentum. Multiple conditions must align: regime direction matches the breakout, price breaks the recent high or low with margin, ATR is expanding, stochastic is trending in the breakout direction, and the micro trend (EMA9 vs EMA21) confirms.

How to interpret: Momentum Thrust appearing suggests conviction behind a move. When combined with cycle context (e.g., Momentum Thrust after IGN), it suggests the markup phase may be gaining momentum. Momentum Thrust without supporting cycle context may indicate short-term strength without broader confirmation. These arrows appear less frequently than NanoFlow because they require more conditions to align.

𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴

What it does: After each cycle event fires, the indicator records the closing price and ATR at that bar. On every subsequent bar, it tracks the most favorable price move in the expected direction. Bullish events (TD, IGN) track how far price rose. Bearish events (WRN, CAP, BDN) track how far price fell. If price moves beyond an ATR-based target within the evaluation window, the event is recorded as a hit. If the window expires without reaching the target, the event is recorded as a miss. Target thresholds and partial credit rules vary by event type. The evaluation window scales with adaptive cycle tempo ratio.

How to interpret: Running accuracy per event type appears in the Confidence row of the Info Panel and in alert messages. The number reflects hit rate within the current chart's loaded history. Higher accuracy suggests the indicator's conditions for that event type have been producing follow-through on this particular instrument and timeframe.

𝗔𝗰𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘆 𝗙𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸

What it does: After a minimum number of evaluated outcomes for a given event type, tracked accuracy modifies two values before the quality gate runs. First, the quality score receives a bonus or penalty that scales linearly with how far accuracy is above or below neutral. Second, the effective minimum quality threshold shifts per event type in the opposite direction by a proportional amount.

How to interpret: Both adjustments compound. Low accuracy reduces the quality score and raises the threshold simultaneously, making borderline signals of that type harder to fire. High accuracy raises the quality score and lowers the threshold, allowing marginal signals through when the track record supports them. The Confidence row in the panel shows the resulting blended score. This means the indicator's sensitivity adapts over time based on which event types have been producing follow-through on the current chart.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴

What it does: Confidence blends the quality score with tracked accuracy at a fixed ratio, weighting quality more heavily. Before enough outcomes have been evaluated for a given event type, confidence equals the raw quality score and the panel displays "learning" instead of an accuracy percentage.

How to interpret: The two components can diverge. A high quality score with low accuracy produces a different confidence than a low quality score with high accuracy — the panel and alerts show both the blended confidence and the raw accuracy so each component is visible. This helps distinguish between "conditions are strong but this event type hasn't been working here" versus "conditions are marginal but this event type has been consistently hitting."

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🔶 𝗪𝗛𝗬 𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗦𝗘 𝗖𝗢𝗠𝗣𝗢𝗡𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗦 𝗪𝗢𝗥𝗞 𝗧𝗢𝗚𝗘𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥

The five events follow a logical sequence through the cycle:

TD (accumulation) → IGN (markup) → WRN (distribution) → CAP (climax) → BDN (decline) → TD

Each event includes credential gates that enforce cycle-appropriate firing:

• TD cannot fire during confirmed markup (within a set number of bars after IGN). This prevents pullbacks in uptrends from being mislabeled as accumulation.
• IGN cannot fire at cycle tops (within a set number of bars after WRN or CAP). This prevents bounces after distribution from being mislabeled as ignition.
• WRN cannot fire during accumulation (within a set number of bars after TD). This prevents oversold bounces from being mislabeled as distribution.
• CAP cannot fire during early cycle (within a set number of bars after TD or IGN). Climax requires sustained overbought conditions.
• BDN requires prior late-cycle context (WRN, CAP, or overbought structure). Decline follows distribution or climax, not accumulation.

These credential gates distinguish Pentarch from oscillators that measure overbought or oversold without cycle context. An overbought reading during markup phase has different implications than an overbought reading during distribution phase. The indicator incorporates this context.

The four-layer detection system requires confluence:

• Layer 1 (Regime Classification): Determines underlying market structure
• Layer 2 (Pilot Line Distance): Measures ATR-normalized distance from trend reference
• Layer 3 (Momentum Validation): Confirms directional bias through stochastic and momentum readings
• Layer 4 (Bar Close Confirmation): Ensures all conditions hold at bar close

Events only appear when all four layers align, reducing false signals.



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🔶 𝗛𝗢𝗪 𝗧𝗢 𝗨𝗦𝗘

𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟭: 𝗜𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗳𝘆 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

Locate the most recent event on the chart to establish cycle context:

• Recent TD or IGN suggests early-cycle conditions (potential accumulation or markup phase)
• Recent WRN or CAP suggests late-cycle conditions (potential distribution or climax phase)
• Recent BDN suggests decline phase may be active

The Info Panel (top right by default) displays the last event and bars since it fired, eliminating the need to scroll through the chart.

𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟮: 𝗢𝗯𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝗶𝗹𝗼𝘁 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽

Note price position relative to the Pilot Line:

• Price near or below the line with oversold readings aligns with early-cycle interpretation
• Price extended above the line with overbought readings aligns with late-cycle interpretation
• Price crossing the line often coincides with regime transitions

The Info Panel shows PL Distance in ATR units, giving you instant awareness of extension levels.

𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟯: 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗦𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀

Events in sequence provide stronger context than isolated events:

• TD followed by IGN: Suggests accumulation may be resolving into markup
• WRN followed by CAP: Suggests distribution may be intensifying toward climax
• CAP followed by BDN: Suggests climax may be resolving into decline
• BDN followed by TD: Suggests decline may be exhausting into new accumulation



𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟰: 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀

Use cycle position as context rather than direct trading signals:

• Early-cycle context (TD, IGN) suggests conditions where trends may be beginning
• Late-cycle context (WRN, CAP, BDN) suggests conditions where existing trends may be maturing

𝗘𝘅𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀

*Example Scenario A (Trend Continuation):*
IGN appeared eight bars ago. Price continues higher with Pilot Line sloping upward. Regime bars show green. No WRN or CAP signals present. Stochastic elevated but not at extreme levels. Components remain aligned with early-cycle characteristics. No late-cycle conditions have developed yet.

*Example Scenario B (Momentum Fading):*
WRN appeared four bars ago. Price remains above Pilot Line but recent bars show decreasing range. Stochastic readings making lower highs while price holds near highs. Main trend appears intact but momentum indicators show weakening. This type of divergence between price and momentum often appears before trends stall or transition to the next cycle phase.

*Example Scenario C (Exhaustion Warning):*
After extended markup, CAP appears with price far above Pilot Line. Stochastic at extreme overbought levels. The bar showing CAP has an unusually large range. WRN appeared several bars earlier. Multiple late-cycle signals appearing together (extreme readings, WRN followed by CAP, extended distance from Pilot Line) suggest caution. This pattern does not guarantee reversal but indicates conditions historically associated with cycle peaks.



*Example Scenario D (Breakout From Consolidation):*
Price has traded sideways near Pilot Line for multiple bars. Regime bars showing gray. Stochastic oscillating near midpoint. Then TD appears followed by IGN two bars later. Pilot Line begins sloping upward. Regime bars turn green. When early-cycle events appear after a neutral period with confirming regime shift, consolidation may be resolving into a directional move.

𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟱: 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗪𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀

Pentarch provides cycle context. Consider combining with:

• Support and resistance levels to identify where cycle transitions may find reaction
• Volume analysis to observe participation levels at cycle events
• Multiple timeframe analysis to compare cycle position across different time horizons

𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟲: 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀

Not every cycle event leads to the expected transition:

• TD does not guarantee a bottom has formed
• IGN does not guarantee sustained markup will follow
• WRN and CAP do not guarantee reversal will occur
• Markets can remain in any cycle phase longer than expected

The indicator identifies conditions consistent with cycle phases. Price can continue in the current direction despite the signal.

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🔶 𝗡𝗔𝗩𝗜𝗚𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗗𝗜𝗙𝗙𝗘𝗥𝗘𝗡𝗧 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧 𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗗𝗜𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡𝗦

𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀

In sustained trends, cycle phases become distinct. Uptrends show TD at major lows, IGN at trend resumption points, and WRN or CAP when price becomes extended. Late-cycle events (WRN, CAP) may appear multiple times during strong trends before any reversal materializes. Extended trends can produce repeated distribution signals that do not immediately lead to decline.



𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀

In sideways markets, events may appear more frequently as price oscillates between oversold and overbought without establishing a trend. TD and WRN may alternate without follow-through IGN or BDN. Regime bars often show gray during these periods. Frequent events without clear sequences suggest the market lacks directional commitment.

𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀

High volatility compresses cycle timeframes. Complete sequences that normally take weeks on daily charts may occur within days. The four-layer detection system applies timeframe-adaptive thresholds, but volatile conditions produce more signals overall. Position sizing and risk management become more important during volatile periods.

𝗟𝗼𝘄 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀

Quiet markets produce sparse events. The indicator requires meaningful price movement to trigger detection thresholds. Long periods without events indicate the market is not presenting clear cycle phase characteristics. This is expected behavior during low-activity periods.



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🔶 𝗧𝗘𝗖𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗖𝗔𝗟 𝗗𝗘𝗧𝗔𝗜𝗟𝗦

The indicator uses a two-layer parameter system. The first layer is a set of hand-tuned baseline arrays covering 18 timeframes from 1-minute to annual. The second layer computes adaptive values from percentile measurements of the current chart's recent history.

The adaptive layer measures six dimensions: stochastic range, ATR-normalized distance from the Pilot Line, volume distribution relative to average, candle body ratio, bar range distribution, and cycle tempo (frequency of stochastic midpoint crosses). Each dimension produces percentile-based thresholds that blend with baseline values at a fixed ratio. The blend weight ramps from zero to its full value over a warmup window.

Directional constraints ensure the adaptive layer can only loosen thresholds relative to the baseline, never tighten them. If the baseline is already correctly tuned for an instrument, the adaptive layer remains transparent. If the instrument's behavior is compressed or unusual relative to the baseline assumptions, the adaptive layer loosens gates proportionally.

Core calculations:

• Stochastic oscillator (14-period %K, smoothed with 3-period SMA for both %K and %D)
• Exponential moving averages (9, 21, 34, 55 periods) for trend structure and regime classification
• ATR-normalized distance from a double-smoothed EMA-34 (Pilot Line)
• Pivot-based structure analysis for recent highs and lows
• Volume relative to a simple moving average with timeframe-specific period

Reset gates track stochastic position between same-type events. After an event fires, the stochastic must cross back through a threshold derived from the adaptive OB/OS values before that event type can re-fire. This prevents label clustering.

Outcome tracking records the close price and ATR when each event fires, then monitors subsequent bars against ATR-based targets that vary by event type. Bullish events require price to rise by a specified ATR multiple. Bearish events require price to drop by a specified multiple. Hit/miss outcomes update a per-type accuracy score using an exponential moving average with recent-bias decay. The accuracy score feeds back into quality scoring and the quality gate threshold through a modifier that scales linearly with distance from neutral. Both adjustments activate after a minimum number of evaluated outcomes per event type. Confidence blends quality with accuracy at a fixed ratio, reverting to raw quality during the initial learning phase.

All events confirm at bar close only. No signals appear mid-bar. No signals change retroactively after appearing. The indicator does not repaint.

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🔶 𝗨𝗡𝗜𝗤𝗨𝗘 𝗙𝗘𝗔𝗧𝗨𝗥𝗘𝗦

• Five cycle events that identify specific market phases rather than generic overbought/oversold
• Credential gates that prevent events from firing in incorrect cycle positions
• Four-layer confirmation requiring regime, distance, momentum, and bar close alignment
• Adaptive calibration from percentile measurements of the current chart's history across six dimensions: stochastic range, distance distribution, volume distribution, body ratio, bar range, cycle tempo
• Baseline parameter arrays for 18 timeframes from 1-minute to annual, blended with adaptive layer
• Cooldowns, lookbacks, and timing windows scale by measured cycle tempo ratio
• Reset gates that require actual market reset between signals of the same type, eliminating label spam
• Outcome tracking: records price and ATR at each event, evaluates hit/miss against ATR-based targets within a cycle-tempo-scaled window
• Accuracy feedback: per-type hit rate modifies quality scores and shifts effective quality gate thresholds, applied per event type independently
• Confidence scoring: blends quality with tracked accuracy into a single percentage, displayed in the panel and included in alerts
• Non-repainting architecture with all signals confirmed at bar close
• Pilot Line trend reference with slope-based coloring and easing detection
• Regime bar coloring for market structure visualization
• NanoFlow micro trend alignment crosses for continuation confirmation
• Momentum Thrust arrows for breakout detection with multi-factor confirmation
• Info Panel displaying real-time cycle status at a glance
• Strict Mode for filtering to only the highest-quality signals
• HTF Trend Filter for aligning signals with higher timeframe direction

𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗼 𝗣𝗮𝗻𝗲𝗹

The Info Panel displays key status information in a compact table:

• Regime: Current market structure (BULL or BEAR), with HTF regime shown when HTF Filter is enabled
• Last Event: Most recent cycle event and how many bars ago it fired
• Quality: Quality rating of the last event (STRONG, GOOD, MODERATE, or WEAK with star rating)
• Stoch: Current stochastic zone (OVERBOUGHT, HIGH, NEUTRAL, LOW, OVERSOLD) with value and direction arrow
• PL Dist: Distance from Pilot Line in ATR units
• Volume: Current volume relative to average
• Confidence: Blended confidence score combining quality and accuracy, raw accuracy percentage, and number of evaluated outcomes. Displays "learning" until ≥ 3 outcomes have been evaluated for the last event's type. Format example: "74% · 80% (7)" means 74% confidence, 80% accuracy over 7 evaluated events.

Each row can be individually enabled or disabled. The panel position is configurable (any corner).

𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘁 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲

Base calibration multiplier varies by asset type: crypto 1.2x, stock/fund 1.3x, forex/futures/index 1.25x. These multiply volume, body, ATR, and distance thresholds. When Strict Mode is enabled, the multiplier overrides to 1.5x regardless of asset type. Strict Mode is useful for:

• Position traders who want only major cycle turns
• Lower timeframes where noise produces too many signals
• Traders who prefer fewer, higher-conviction setups

𝗛𝗧𝗙 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗙𝗶𝗹𝘁𝗲𝗿

When enabled, certain signals are filtered against the higher timeframe trend:

• IGN only fires when the HTF regime is bullish (prevents long entries against major downtrends)
• BDN only fires when the HTF regime is bearish (prevents short entries against major uptrends)
• TD, WRN, and CAP fire regardless of HTF direction

The HTF timeframe can be set to Auto (which selects 4H for charts up to 1H, Daily for 4H charts, Weekly for Daily and above) or manually specified.

𝗩𝗶𝘀𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝗟𝗮𝘆𝗼𝘂𝘁

Early-cycle events (TD, IGN) appear below candles where accumulation and markup begin. Late-cycle events (WRN, CAP, BDN) appear above candles where distribution and exhaustion develop. The spatial position mirrors the cycle position.

Labels use three-letter abbreviations whose full names describe the phase: Touchdown (landing after a fall), Ignition (energy initiating), Warning (caution developing), Climax (peak intensity), Breakdown (structure failing).

Default colors follow a cool-to-warm progression as cycles mature. All event colors are customizable — the positional and labeling logic remains constant regardless of palette.

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🔶 𝗦𝗘𝗧𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚𝗦 𝗢𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗩𝗜𝗘𝗪

𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘆
• Show Pilot Line: Toggle the trend reference line visibility
• Show Regime Bar Coloring: Toggle candle body coloring based on market structure

𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗶𝗹𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴
• Strict Mode: Override adaptive calibration with 1.5x stricter thresholds for fewer, higher-quality signals
• HTF Trend Filter: Filter IGN and BDN signals against higher timeframe trend direction
• HTF Timeframe: Select which higher timeframe to check (Auto, 1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly)

𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗩𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆
• Show TD Labels: Toggle Touchdown (accumulation) labels
• Show IGN Labels: Toggle Ignition (markup) labels
• Show WRN Labels: Toggle Warning (distribution) labels
• Show CAP Labels: Toggle Climax labels
• Show BDN Labels: Toggle Breakdown (decline) labels
• Label Size: Adjust event label size (tiny, small, normal, large)

𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗼 𝗣𝗮𝗻𝗲𝗹
• Show Info Panel: Toggle the status panel visibility
• Panel Position: Choose panel location (Top Right, Top Left, Bottom Right, Bottom Left)
• Row toggles: Enable or disable individual rows (Regime, Last Event, Quality, Stoch, PL Distance, Volume, Confidence)

𝗔𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘀
• Show NanoFlow Crosses: Toggle micro trend alignment markers
• Show Momentum Thrust Arrows: Toggle breakout detection arrows

𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗿𝘀
• TD Color: Customize Touchdown label color (default: purple)
• IGN Color: Customize Ignition label color (default: teal)
• WRN Color: Customize Warning label color (default: yellow)
• CAP Color: Customize Climax label color (default: red)
• BDN Color: Customize Breakdown label color (default: orange)

𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗿𝘀
• Momentum Thrust Bull: Color for bullish breakout arrows (default: cyan)
• Momentum Thrust Bear: Color for bearish breakout arrows (default: red)
• Regime Bull Candles: Candle color in bullish regime (default: green)
• Regime Bear Candles: Candle color in bearish regime (default: red)

𝗔𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘀
• Alert toggles for each cycle event (TD, IGN, WRN, CAP, BDN)

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🔶 𝗔𝗟𝗘𝗥𝗧𝗦

The indicator includes 13 alert conditions.

𝗖𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗲 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗔𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘀

Each cycle event alert includes quality ratings, confidence scores, and detailed context:

• TD - Touchdown: Quality rating (STRONG/GOOD/MODERATE/WEAK with stars), confidence score with accuracy, oversold depth, trend anchor position, volume status, plus raw values (StochK/D, PL distance, volume ratio, body percentage, regime state)
• IGN - Ignition: Quality rating, confidence score with accuracy, follow-through strength (scored out of 4), recent oversold status, bar strength, plus raw values
• WRN - Warning: Quality rating, confidence score with accuracy, extension level, overbought status, deceleration signs (scored out of 3), detection path (predictive or reactive), plus raw values
• CAP - Climax: Quality rating, confidence score with accuracy, range analysis, prior warning status, overbought level, plus raw values
• BDN - Breakdown: Quality rating, confidence score with accuracy, prior context (CAP, WRN, or structure), break strength, volume status, plus raw values

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱

Each cycle event includes a quality rating based on how far conditions exceeded minimum thresholds:

• STRONG (★★★★☆ or ★★★★★): Conditions significantly exceeded minimums. Deep oversold/overbought, extended from trend anchor, high volume, multiple confirmations aligned.
• GOOD (★★★☆☆): Solid readings across factors. Clear signal with good confirmation.
• MODERATE (★★☆☆☆): Acceptable readings. Conditions met but not exceptional.
• WEAK (★☆☆☆☆): Borderline readings. Minimum conditions barely met.

Quality is calculated from three weighted factors per event type, each contributing up to 35 points for a maximum composite score of 100. The specific factors vary by event but always measure: how extreme the reading, how well positioned relative to trend, and how much confirmation exists. After calculation, the accuracy feedback modifier is applied to the score before the quality gate check.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱

Each alert includes a confidence line such as "Confidence: 74% (acc: 80% over 7 events)" or "Confidence: 55% (learning)".

The confidence percentage blends quality with tracked accuracy, weighting quality more heavily. When not enough outcomes of the event type have been evaluated, confidence equals the raw quality score and the alert shows "learning" instead of accuracy data. The accuracy percentage shows the hit rate and the event count shows how many outcomes have been evaluated for that event type on the current chart. For example, "acc: 80% over 7 events" means 7 events of that type have been evaluated and 80% hit their ATR target.

𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘀

• NanoFlow Bullish: Triggers on bullish micro trend alignment
• NanoFlow Bearish: Triggers on bearish micro trend alignment
• Momentum Thrust Bullish: Triggers on strong bullish breakout
• Momentum Thrust Bearish: Triggers on strong bearish breakout
• Pilot Line Cross Bullish: Triggers when price crosses above Pilot Line
• Pilot Line Cross Bearish: Triggers when price crosses below Pilot Line
• Regime Flip to Bull: Triggers when regime changes to bullish
• Regime Flip to Bear: Triggers when regime changes to bearish

All alerts fire once per signal at bar close. To receive alerts, create an alert on the chart and select "Any alert() function call" to receive cycle event alerts with quality scores, or select specific alertcondition() items for the other alert types.

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🔶 𝗟𝗜𝗠𝗜𝗧𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡𝗦

• Cycle events identify conditions, not outcomes. TD does not guarantee a bottom. CAP does not guarantee a top.
• In strong trends, late-cycle events (WRN, CAP) may appear multiple times before any reversal occurs.
• In ranging markets, events may fire frequently without developing into sustained moves.
• Lower timeframes produce more signals due to increased noise, even with stricter thresholds.
• The adaptive layer requires sufficient bar history to reach full blend weight. Before that, thresholds weight more heavily toward baseline parameters.
• Volume-based detection is less reliable on forex and index instruments where only tick volume is available. The indicator automatically reduces volume gate weight on these instruments.
• Adaptive percentiles are computed from a rolling window. Loading different amounts of chart history produces different measurements during the warmup period.
• The indicator provides cycle position context but does not predict future price direction.
• Past cycle patterns do not guarantee similar future patterns.
• Outcome tracking accuracy resets when the chart reloads. Pine replays all historical bars on load, so accuracy rebuilds from history, but any live-session-only outcomes are lost.
• Accuracy feedback requires ≥ 3 evaluated outcomes per event type before activating. On higher timeframes or charts with limited history, some event types may remain in "learning" state.
• The accuracy score uses an exponential moving average with recent-bias decay. A single hit or miss shifts the running accuracy substantially, meaning accuracy can swing on small sample sizes.
• HTF Filter requires the higher timeframe to have sufficient history for accurate regime detection.

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🔶 𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗖𝗟𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗢𝗡

Pentarch provides a framework for identifying market cycle phases. The five events (TD, IGN, WRN, CAP, BDN) correspond to accumulation, markup, distribution, climax, and decline. Credential gates ensure events only fire in their appropriate cycle position. The four-layer detection system requires regime, distance, momentum, and bar close confirmation before any event appears. Reset gates require stochastic reset between same-type signals.

Thresholds blend hand-tuned baseline values with adaptive percentile measurements from the current chart's history. Cooldowns, lookbacks, and timing windows scale by measured cycle tempo.

After each event fires, the indicator tracks the outcome against ATR-based targets. Per-type accuracy modifies quality scores and gate thresholds via the feedback loop described in Accuracy Feedback above. Confidence scores blend quality with accuracy into a single metric displayed in the panel and alerts.

Cycle position provides context for decisions. Early-cycle events suggest conditions where trends may be forming. Late-cycle events suggest conditions where existing trends may be maturing. Combine cycle context with other analysis methods and proper risk management.

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🔶 𝗗𝗜𝗦𝗖𝗟𝗔𝗜𝗠𝗘𝗥

Trading is risky and most traders lose money. This indicator is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. All content, tools, and analysis should not be considered as recommendations to buy or sell any asset. Users are solely responsible for their own trading decisions. Always use proper risk management and consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making trading decisions.

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