INVITE-ONLY SCRIPT
Updated MMM Excess Liquidity Model
WWW.MACROMARKETMODEL.COM
MMM Excess Liquidity Model (Advanced)
The MMM Excess Liquidity Model combines global M2/GDP excess-liquidity breadth with the MMM Crypto Risk Score to identify when liquidity and crypto risk conditions have historically been more supportive for risk exposure.
This is the Advanced version of the model. It includes the full excess-liquidity data layer, configurable live/basic markers, backtest-researched preset markers, a native preset stats table and exportable signal data for users who want to build their own research, dashboards or strategies.
What it does
The indicator tracks the relationship between global money supply and GDP using a global M2/GDP breadth model. It then measures whether liquidity conditions are supportive, neutral or fading for crypto and broader risk assets.
It uses:
Global M2/GDP ratio
Z-score of the liquidity level
13-week, 26-week, 52-week and 104-week ROC z-scores
Composite excess-liquidity score
Fast-minus-slow maturity gauge
MMM Crypto Risk Score weekly source
MMM Crypto Risk Score 4-week delta source
Optimal preset marker system
Configurable live/basic marker system
Exportable hidden source plots
Best default chart setup:
Chart: CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
Timeframe: 1W
Sampling mode: Week-End held
Anchor symbol: CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
Risk threshold mode: Strict
Confirmed bars: ON
Marker timing: T+1 entry bar
The model is designed to answer one question:
Is the broader liquidity backdrop supporting risk assets, and is risk appetite confirming it?
Three primary ways to use it
1. Signal states
The simplest use case is to use the model as a weekly signal state overlay.
Add MMM Crypto Risk Score first, then add MMM Excess Liquidity Model v2 Advanced and wire the weekly risk score + 4-week risk delta sources.
Then use the diagnostics panel and signals to see whether liquidity is supportive and risk appetite is accelerating or decelerating.
2. MMM Signals: optimal presets or live/basic markers
There are two signal marker systems.
Optimal preset markers
These are enabled by default. They show backtest-informed setups for each of the signal states rather than every raw condition.
ALERTS: You can set TradingView alerts for each of the preset markers to notify you when each of the signals fires
Default focus:
TURN + CORE
TURN Trend Reclaim
ALL4 Strict
ALL4 Buffered
These are designed to reduce clutter and highlight the most useful historical setups, with full backtest data available and signal-specific cooldown and hold duration provided.
Live/basic markers
These are configurable state markers. They are useful if you want to monitor the full underlying model state or run your own event studies.
Main live/basic states:
Excess Liquidity Core: composite_alt_score > 1, z_roc_26w_104w > 1 and z_roc_104w_104w > 1
HLS: z_level_104w > 1 and z_roc_104w_104w > 1
Broad Positive: composite_alt_score > 0.5, z_roc_26w_104w > 0.5 and z_roc_104w_104w > 0.5
BTC_REC: weekly crypto risk score >= 65
RISK_TURN: weekly crypto risk score 4w delta >= +10
ALL4: Excess Liquidity Core + HLS + BTC_REC + RISK_TURN
Plain English:
Preset markers = backtest-researched signals with fixed cooldown and hold duration - stats available within the indicator itself and at macromarketmodel.com.
Live/basic markers = broader real-time model states, fully configurable for utilising within your own strategy development.
3. Export the excess-liquidity data
The model is not only a chart marker system. It also exports the underlying data so users can build their own research, backtests, dashboards or AI-assisted strategic workflows.
Useful exported fields include:
z_level_104w
z_roc_13w_104w
z_roc_26w_104w
z_roc_52w_104w
z_roc_104w_104w
composite_alt_score
risk score
risk delta 4w
AUTH_PRESET_BITMASK_UNSHIFTED
The most important preset export is:
AUTH_PRESET_BITMASK_UNSHIFTED
This tells you which optimal preset fired on the original signal date.
Bitmask map:
1 = REC
2 = CORE
4 = BRD
8 = HLS
16 = TURN + CORE
32 = TURN Trend Reclaim
64 = ALL4 Buffered
128 = ALL4 Strict
Example:
146 = 128 + 16 + 2
Meaning:
ALL4 Strict + TURN + CORE + CORE fired on the same signal bar.
Important timing note:
Visible markers can be plotted on the signal bar or the T+1 entry bar depending on the Marker timing setting.
The AUTH_PRESET_BITMASK_UNSHIFTED export is always unshifted signal-date logic for clean research and reconciliation.
Required source setup
The risk inputs default to chart close, so they must be wired manually.
Add MMM Crypto Risk Score first. Then, inside MMM Excess Liquidity Model, connect:
Risk score weekly source: MMM_CRYPTO_RISK_SCORE_WEEKLY_SOURCE
Risk delta 4w weekly source: MMM_CRYPTO_RISK_DELTA_4W_WEEKLY_SOURCE
Then tick:
Confirm MMM Crypto Risk Score sources are wired
If these are not connected correctly, BTC_REC, RISK_TURN, ALL4 and the risk-based preset markers are forced OFF.
Best workflow
1. Add MMM Crypto Risk Score.
2. Add MMM Excess Liquidity Model v2 Advanced.
3. Wire the weekly risk score and 4w risk delta sources.
4. Use CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS on 1W while learning the model.
5. Read the state panel.
6. Watch the optimal preset markers first.
7. Use the preset stats table for quick reference.
8. Export the hidden plots if you want to build your own backtests, dashboards or AI-assisted strategy research.
The strongest default focus is:
TURN + CORE = clean high-Sharpe short-window recovery signal.
TURN Trend Reclaim = higher-conviction medium-window recovery signal.
ALL4 Strict = rare high-conviction cluster.
ALL4 Buffered = more practical live-monitoring version.
FAQ
What is this for?
To identify favourable conditions, when excess liquidity is supportive for crypto and risk assets, improving risk-adjusted returns.
What is ALL4?
A high-conviction alignment state where Excess Liquidity Core, HLS, BTC_REC and RISK_TURN are all active.
What is the difference between ALL4 Strict and ALL4 Buffered?
ALL4 Strict uses the hard public thresholds: risk score >= 65 and risk delta >= +10. ALL4 Buffered allows a small live-monitoring tolerance: risk score >= 63.5 and risk delta >= +9.5. ALL4 Buffered also uses a different cooldown and hold duration in the backtest.
Should I use this without the Crypto Risk Score?
You can read the excess-liquidity side alone, but REC, TURN, ALL4 and the full optimal preset system require the Crypto Risk Score sources to be wired.
Why is there a wiring guard?
To prevent false risk-based signals if the Crypto Risk Score sources are not connected properly.
Can this be used outside crypto?
Yes. The score is crypto-native, but liquidity and risk-beta states can also be useful context for broader speculative assets such as SPY, IWM and high-beta equities.
Is it a precise entry tool?
No. It is a weekly regime and signal framework. It should be combined with trend, sizing, risk control and your own portfolio rules.
Why is this version so configurable?
This is the Advanced version. It is built for users who want full configurability, preset markers, live/basic markers, native stats and exportable data. A simplified pre-configured version will also be available soon for users who do not need this level of control.
Where can I see the preset statistics?
The preset statistics are available in the PDF guide on macromarketmodel.com and inside TradingView by toggling on the preset stats table in this indicator.
Can I set alerts for the presets?
Yes - you can set TradingView alerts for each of the preset markers to notify you when each of the signals fires. Just click the three dots next to the indicator name and then 'Add Alert...'.
MMM Excess Liquidity Model (Advanced)
The MMM Excess Liquidity Model combines global M2/GDP excess-liquidity breadth with the MMM Crypto Risk Score to identify when liquidity and crypto risk conditions have historically been more supportive for risk exposure.
This is the Advanced version of the model. It includes the full excess-liquidity data layer, configurable live/basic markers, backtest-researched preset markers, a native preset stats table and exportable signal data for users who want to build their own research, dashboards or strategies.
What it does
The indicator tracks the relationship between global money supply and GDP using a global M2/GDP breadth model. It then measures whether liquidity conditions are supportive, neutral or fading for crypto and broader risk assets.
It uses:
Global M2/GDP ratio
Z-score of the liquidity level
13-week, 26-week, 52-week and 104-week ROC z-scores
Composite excess-liquidity score
Fast-minus-slow maturity gauge
MMM Crypto Risk Score weekly source
MMM Crypto Risk Score 4-week delta source
Optimal preset marker system
Configurable live/basic marker system
Exportable hidden source plots
Best default chart setup:
Chart: CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
Timeframe: 1W
Sampling mode: Week-End held
Anchor symbol: CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
Risk threshold mode: Strict
Confirmed bars: ON
Marker timing: T+1 entry bar
The model is designed to answer one question:
Is the broader liquidity backdrop supporting risk assets, and is risk appetite confirming it?
Three primary ways to use it
1. Signal states
The simplest use case is to use the model as a weekly signal state overlay.
Add MMM Crypto Risk Score first, then add MMM Excess Liquidity Model v2 Advanced and wire the weekly risk score + 4-week risk delta sources.
Then use the diagnostics panel and signals to see whether liquidity is supportive and risk appetite is accelerating or decelerating.
2. MMM Signals: optimal presets or live/basic markers
There are two signal marker systems.
Optimal preset markers
These are enabled by default. They show backtest-informed setups for each of the signal states rather than every raw condition.
ALERTS: You can set TradingView alerts for each of the preset markers to notify you when each of the signals fires
Default focus:
TURN + CORE
TURN Trend Reclaim
ALL4 Strict
ALL4 Buffered
These are designed to reduce clutter and highlight the most useful historical setups, with full backtest data available and signal-specific cooldown and hold duration provided.
Live/basic markers
These are configurable state markers. They are useful if you want to monitor the full underlying model state or run your own event studies.
Main live/basic states:
Excess Liquidity Core: composite_alt_score > 1, z_roc_26w_104w > 1 and z_roc_104w_104w > 1
HLS: z_level_104w > 1 and z_roc_104w_104w > 1
Broad Positive: composite_alt_score > 0.5, z_roc_26w_104w > 0.5 and z_roc_104w_104w > 0.5
BTC_REC: weekly crypto risk score >= 65
RISK_TURN: weekly crypto risk score 4w delta >= +10
ALL4: Excess Liquidity Core + HLS + BTC_REC + RISK_TURN
Plain English:
Preset markers = backtest-researched signals with fixed cooldown and hold duration - stats available within the indicator itself and at macromarketmodel.com.
Live/basic markers = broader real-time model states, fully configurable for utilising within your own strategy development.
3. Export the excess-liquidity data
The model is not only a chart marker system. It also exports the underlying data so users can build their own research, backtests, dashboards or AI-assisted strategic workflows.
Useful exported fields include:
z_level_104w
z_roc_13w_104w
z_roc_26w_104w
z_roc_52w_104w
z_roc_104w_104w
composite_alt_score
risk score
risk delta 4w
AUTH_PRESET_BITMASK_UNSHIFTED
The most important preset export is:
AUTH_PRESET_BITMASK_UNSHIFTED
This tells you which optimal preset fired on the original signal date.
Bitmask map:
1 = REC
2 = CORE
4 = BRD
8 = HLS
16 = TURN + CORE
32 = TURN Trend Reclaim
64 = ALL4 Buffered
128 = ALL4 Strict
Example:
146 = 128 + 16 + 2
Meaning:
ALL4 Strict + TURN + CORE + CORE fired on the same signal bar.
Important timing note:
Visible markers can be plotted on the signal bar or the T+1 entry bar depending on the Marker timing setting.
The AUTH_PRESET_BITMASK_UNSHIFTED export is always unshifted signal-date logic for clean research and reconciliation.
Required source setup
The risk inputs default to chart close, so they must be wired manually.
Add MMM Crypto Risk Score first. Then, inside MMM Excess Liquidity Model, connect:
Risk score weekly source: MMM_CRYPTO_RISK_SCORE_WEEKLY_SOURCE
Risk delta 4w weekly source: MMM_CRYPTO_RISK_DELTA_4W_WEEKLY_SOURCE
Then tick:
Confirm MMM Crypto Risk Score sources are wired
If these are not connected correctly, BTC_REC, RISK_TURN, ALL4 and the risk-based preset markers are forced OFF.
Best workflow
1. Add MMM Crypto Risk Score.
2. Add MMM Excess Liquidity Model v2 Advanced.
3. Wire the weekly risk score and 4w risk delta sources.
4. Use CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS on 1W while learning the model.
5. Read the state panel.
6. Watch the optimal preset markers first.
7. Use the preset stats table for quick reference.
8. Export the hidden plots if you want to build your own backtests, dashboards or AI-assisted strategy research.
The strongest default focus is:
TURN + CORE = clean high-Sharpe short-window recovery signal.
TURN Trend Reclaim = higher-conviction medium-window recovery signal.
ALL4 Strict = rare high-conviction cluster.
ALL4 Buffered = more practical live-monitoring version.
FAQ
What is this for?
To identify favourable conditions, when excess liquidity is supportive for crypto and risk assets, improving risk-adjusted returns.
What is ALL4?
A high-conviction alignment state where Excess Liquidity Core, HLS, BTC_REC and RISK_TURN are all active.
What is the difference between ALL4 Strict and ALL4 Buffered?
ALL4 Strict uses the hard public thresholds: risk score >= 65 and risk delta >= +10. ALL4 Buffered allows a small live-monitoring tolerance: risk score >= 63.5 and risk delta >= +9.5. ALL4 Buffered also uses a different cooldown and hold duration in the backtest.
Should I use this without the Crypto Risk Score?
You can read the excess-liquidity side alone, but REC, TURN, ALL4 and the full optimal preset system require the Crypto Risk Score sources to be wired.
Why is there a wiring guard?
To prevent false risk-based signals if the Crypto Risk Score sources are not connected properly.
Can this be used outside crypto?
Yes. The score is crypto-native, but liquidity and risk-beta states can also be useful context for broader speculative assets such as SPY, IWM and high-beta equities.
Is it a precise entry tool?
No. It is a weekly regime and signal framework. It should be combined with trend, sizing, risk control and your own portfolio rules.
Why is this version so configurable?
This is the Advanced version. It is built for users who want full configurability, preset markers, live/basic markers, native stats and exportable data. A simplified pre-configured version will also be available soon for users who do not need this level of control.
Where can I see the preset statistics?
The preset statistics are available in the PDF guide on macromarketmodel.com and inside TradingView by toggling on the preset stats table in this indicator.
Can I set alerts for the presets?
Yes - you can set TradingView alerts for each of the preset markers to notify you when each of the signals fires. Just click the three dots next to the indicator name and then 'Add Alert...'.
Release Notes
This is the advanced version of this script, with full configurability. A lightweight, pre-configured version will be available shortly.
Release Notes
Updated settings to default to canonical conventions. Release Notes
Presets are now enabled by default.This means the visual markers you see upon loading the script (once you have wired the correct sources) are the backtested presets, not live configurable markers. These have specified, hard-coded cooldowns and hold times per-signal. You can view all of the statistical data for each of these presets either in the PDF on the Guides page at macromarketmodel.com or natively in TradingView: just toggle on the preset stats table in Settings (and disable the diagnostics panel for visual clarity).
If you want to turn these presets off, you can do so in Settings. Then you can turn on the live markers, which are fully configurable - this allows you to run your own event studies, if you so wish, using the signals, where you export the data, create your own strategies and then can set the cooldown for each signal as required.
Remember: this is the Advanced version of this indicator - I will be releasing a simplified version shortly with less configurability. You will have access to both.
Invite-only script
Only users approved by the author can access this script. You'll need to request and get permission to use it. This is typically granted after payment. For more details, follow the author's instructions below or contact cointradernik directly.
Note that this private, invite-only script has not been reviewed by script moderators, and its compliance with House Rules is undetermined. TradingView does NOT recommend paying for or using a script unless you fully trust its author and understand how it works. You may also find free, open-source alternatives in our community scripts.
Author's instructions
WWW.MACROMARKETMODEL.COM
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Invite-only script
Only users approved by the author can access this script. You'll need to request and get permission to use it. This is typically granted after payment. For more details, follow the author's instructions below or contact cointradernik directly.
Note that this private, invite-only script has not been reviewed by script moderators, and its compliance with House Rules is undetermined. TradingView does NOT recommend paying for or using a script unless you fully trust its author and understand how it works. You may also find free, open-source alternatives in our community scripts.
Author's instructions
WWW.MACROMARKETMODEL.COM
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.