The script uses the open price as the mean and calculates the standard deviation from the open price on a per candle basis
- Goal: -
To establish a mean based on the Open Price and calculate the standard deviation.
The reason for this is if the Open is the mean, then the Standard deviation implies a standardized distance a given candle can be expected to travel
from the open price
- Edge: -
If you know that there is a 68%/95%/99.7% probability that price will NOT move more than
One Standard Deviation/Two Standard Deviations/Three Standard Deviations from the open price respectively
you can set reasonable price targets that relate to those probabilities in a given timeframe.
e.g. if you're on a 1h chart and your target is 3.5% from the open price, but 1 standard deviation of the hourly candle is equal to 0.78%.
You can make assumptions on either:
- The reasonableness of your target
- The holding period likely required for the trade.
Also, Standard Deviation is a function of and this tool provides a unique mechanism for measuring as well on a candle by candle basis
- Customization Options-
- Set 3 independent upper and lower standard deviations.
- Each set of standard deviations are on a switch so you can show 1, 2, or 3 sets of standard deviations
- You can set the distribution width
- Though it's not recommended, you can change the mean source.
- There is a switch to show the standard deviation on only the real-time bar or real-time and historical bars.
- How I Think About This Script -
This strategy is predicated the same principle as Bands: the reality that 68% of all data points will fall within one standard deviation of the mean, 96% of all data points will fall within two standard deviations, and 98% of al data points will fall within 3 standard deviations. By understanding the standard deviation, you can possibly infer an edge by understanding the probabilistic range price will be bound to the limits of standard deviation rules according to their probabilistic outcomes for the single candle on any given timeframe. are designed to provide this information with the mean being a 20-period moving average and this indicator.
This indicator is designed to provide standard deviation information with the mean being based on the distance price travels away from the open of individual candles in the lookback period.
If you use a strategy where you enter on major candle closes, this can be useful to set targets for those entries based on the intended hold period or at least add/remove validity to other target metrics.
Your target is at the 1.618 Fibonacci level and your confirmation triggers on the 4h candle close (H4 if that's your thing lol). You set up the indicator based on the standard deviation of price movement in 4h candles over the last week.
Let's say the indicator shows that the 1.618 Fibonacci level is 3 standard deviations away.
This being the case this statistically indicates that within the next 4 hours, you have a very low probability of achieving your target (>2%). This doesn't invalidate your target, but it does indicate a low probability of achieving it in the next 4hrs. With this information, you can infer that you are either going to be (a) really lucky (b) in this trade for a lot longer than 4hrs or (c) your target is unrealistic given your intended hold period.
You can develop a more probabilistically favorable hold period calculation by looking at the standard deviation on a higher time frame (e.g. 1d-1w).
Bonus feature: You'll find that the 2 and 3 standard deviations will often "cluster" and these clusters often provide future S/R levels. That's a pretty sweet feature no one things to look for. But, try it. Find a cluster of 2nd and 3rd stdevs that are in somewhat of a horizontal pattern (usually the result of a range) and you'll find that to be a good s/r area. Even better if you use the 3.2 standard deviation, you'll find that is a fantastic breakout signal!
So, you can use it for target setting, a confluence test, a reasonableness test, or just a measurement tool.
This was the first TV script I ever wrong.. Got taken down. But, I've re-released it because there are other TV scripts that attempt to do this but are completely wrong.
Please be careful about using other people's scripts. Always validate the math of the script before you use it if possible.
Stay safe out there and I hope all your dreams come true.
I was just tinkering with this idea and it turns out that this works really good when applied to supertrend. I will publish that down the road because I think its an interesting take on supertrend