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MMM Inflation Momentum Dashboard v6

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MMM Inflation Momentum Dashboard v6

What it does
An inflation dashboard that combines expectations, realized inflation, sticky inflation, commodities, and ISM Prices Paid into a month-end held composite z-score, a live impulse z-score, and a live 0–100 nowcast. It also includes diffusion, acceleration, and top impulse drivers. All inflation inputs, labels, and inclusion toggles are configurable.

How it works
The composite uses the same adaptive z-score framework as the other dashboards: 104-week short lookback, 260-week long lookback, and 0.60 weight on the short z. Regime bands are DISINFLATION at or below -0.50, REINFLATION at or above 0.50, and HOT at or above 1.00. YoY inflation series use point-change ROC logic rather than percent ROC to avoid distortions, while market-based expectations and ISM Prices Paid keep level-style ROC treatment. The nowcast is a 50/50 blend of the month-end composite score and live impulse score.

Default setup
Default lookbacks are 13 weeks for 3m change, 52 weeks for 12m change, and 13 weeks for impulse delta. Default weights are: 5Y5Y forward 0.12, 5Y breakeven 0.07, 10Y breakeven 0.06, CPI YoY 0.02, Core CPI YoY 0.04, PCE YoY 0.02, Core PCE YoY 0.02, PPI ex FE YoY 0.12, AHE YoY 0.10, Rent YoY 0.05, Oil YoY 0.12, Commodities YoY 0.08, and ISM Prices Paid 0.18. Impulse z lookback defaults to 156 weeks and is clipped at ±3.

How to use it
Use the held composite for the slower inflation regime, the live impulse for short-term inflation momentum, and the nowcast for the blended signal. The dashboard is especially useful when realized inflation is sticky but market-based expectations are already rolling over, or vice versa. The “Top Impulse Drivers” row shows which inflation components are currently dominating the live move.

Misc.
This script exposes three hidden outputs for companion indicators: INFL_ME_COMPOSITE_Z_SOURCE, INFL_IMPULSE_Z_SOURCE, and INFL_NOWCAST_SOURCE. All inputs, labels, and component inclusion toggles can be customized without changing the core framework.
Release Notes
MMM Inflation Momentum Dashboard v6

Disclaimer

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