INVITE-ONLY SCRIPT
Updated Trade Outcome Simulator [AGPro Series]
Trade Outcome Simulator [AGPro Series]
🧠 Core Idea
If you repeated this exact setup a hundred times, what would the results actually look like?
📌 Overview / What it does
Trade Outcome Simulator takes a setup's win rate and payoff (R) and projects the outcome distribution over a long series of repeated trades. It reports the expected return, the variance and standard deviation around it, and a realistic worst-case drawdown — so you can see whether a setup type is worth trading and how bumpy the road is likely to be.
The win rate and payoff can be measured automatically from a built-in trigger on the current symbol, or entered manually. From those two numbers it derives per-trade expectancy, projects the full ±1σ / ±2σ band of outcomes over the series, and condenses it into a single 0-100 Worth-Trading score.
This is an analytical (binomial) projection of expectancy and variance — not a random simulation, not a prediction of the next trade, and not a directional or automated system.
🎯 Purpose & Design Philosophy
A single trade tells you almost nothing about an edge — outcomes are dominated by variance. Traders abandon good setups after a few losses and over-trust bad ones after a few wins, because they judge edges one trade at a time instead of across the repetition that actually defines them.
Trade Outcome Simulator turns an abstract "edge" into a concrete outcome profile. By projecting the distribution over many repetitions, it shows the expected return, the realistic swings, and the worst-case drawdown to budget for. It is built for traders who want to know, before committing, whether a setup is statistically worth trading — and to size for the variance rather than be surprised by it.
⚡ Why This Script Is Different
Most edge tools report a single backward-looking number — a win rate, an average R, a profit factor — and stop there.
This script does NOT stop at a point estimate and does NOT pretend a win rate alone tells you the journey.
Instead, it projects the forward outcome distribution of repeating the setup: not just the expected total, but the standard deviation around it, the best and worst bands, and a realistic worst-case drawdown — the difference between knowing an edge exists and knowing what trading it will actually feel like.
⚙️ Methodology
1. Edge Inputs
Win rate (W) and payoff (R) — either measured from a built-in trigger that resolves target-before-stop on the current symbol, or entered manually.
2. Expectancy & Variance
Per-trade mean R = W·R − (1−W); per-trade variance from the two-outcome distribution.
3. Series Projection
Over a horizon of T trades: expected total = T·mean; standard deviation = √T·σ; the ±1σ and ±2σ outcome bands; and a worst-case drawdown approximated from the variance and a confidence band.
4. Worth-Trading Score
The expectancy-to-variance (Sharpe-like) ratio mapped to 0-100.
🗺️ How to Read the Chart
• Outcome strip = five tier-colored badges — Best, +1σ, Expected, −1σ, Worst — the distribution of total R over the series, in numbers only.
• Win / loss markers = where the measured engine resolved trades (Measured mode).
• Panel = win rate, payoff, per-trade expectancy, expected total, standard deviation, worst-case drawdown, the Worth-Trading score, verdict, and next action.
Green badges are positive outcomes; pink badges are negative. A robust edge shows a strip that stays positive even at the lower bands.
🚦 Signals & States
• Robust edge → positive expectancy with a healthy expectancy-to-variance ratio.
• Marginal — high variance → positive but thin versus the swings.
• Negative expectancy — skip → the math does not support trading the setup.
🔔 Alerts Logic
• Edge robust → conditions for a robust edge are met.
• Edge degraded → the edge has weakened to marginal or negative.
Alerts mark a change in the edge profile, not a trade instruction.
🧩 Confluence Logic
The Worth-Trading score is itself a confluence of return and risk: a high score requires both positive expectancy and a contained spread. A strong win rate with huge variance can still read as marginal — exactly the nuance a single statistic hides.
📊 When to Use
• Before adopting a setup type, to judge whether it is worth trading at all.
• To set realistic expectations for the drawdown and variance a series will produce.
• To compare two setups on expectancy-to-variance, not just win rate.
⚠️ When NOT to Use
• As a prediction of any single trade — the projection describes the series, not the next entry.
• With an unrealistic manual win rate or payoff — garbage in, garbage out.
• On too few measured samples — wait for the panel to leave the Building state before trusting the projection.
🎛️ Key Inputs
• Edge source → Measured or Manual.
• Manual win rate and payoff R.
• Measured engine → trigger lookback, stop distance, target payoff, samples.
• Series length (T) → how many repetitions to project.
• Worst-case band → confidence multiple for the drawdown estimate.
🖥️ Interface & Visual Design
The panel reads top-to-bottom from inputs to projection to verdict, and the on-chart outcome strip turns the distribution into a vertical ladder of tier-colored badges, evenly spaced so it stays readable on any symbol or timeframe. Both light and dark themes are included.
🧪 Practical Usage Workflow
1. Choose Measured or enter your own W and R.
2. Read per-trade expectancy and the Worth-Trading score.
3. Scan the outcome strip — note how negative the lower bands go.
4. If the edge is robust, size for the worst-case drawdown; if marginal or negative, refine the setup.
🔍 Interpretation Guidelines
Read the strip, not just the expected value. Two setups can share an expected return while one keeps its −2σ band positive and the other plunges deep into the red — the second demands far smaller size. The worst-case drawdown is the number to budget around, not the best case.
🚫 What This Script Is NOT
• Not a random Monte Carlo simulation — it is an analytical (binomial) projection.
• Not a prediction of any individual trade or of price direction.
• Not financial advice.
• Not an automated trading system, and not a guarantee of any outcome.
⚠️ Limitations & Transparency
The projection assumes each trade is independent and identically distributed with the given win rate and payoff — real trades cluster, edges drift, and conditions change, so treat the output as a model, not a forecast. Measured win rates depend on the built-in trigger, which is a proxy for your entry, not your exact setup. The worst-case drawdown is a confidence-band approximation, not a hard floor. Read it all as a reasoned estimate to inform judgement.
🔐 Non-Promise Statement
A robust projection is not a promise of profit, and a positive expected value is not a promise that any given run will be positive. The model describes a distribution, not a destiny.
📉 Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk. This script is an analytical and educational tool only. It does not provide financial advice or guaranteed outcomes. All trading decisions, and their consequences, remain entirely your own responsibility.
📚 Educational Note
Expectancy, variance, and drawdown are the core mathematics of any trading edge: the recognition that an edge lives in the distribution of many trades, not in any single one. This simulator brings that distribution onto the chart.
🧠 Core Idea
If you repeated this exact setup a hundred times, what would the results actually look like?
📌 Overview / What it does
Trade Outcome Simulator takes a setup's win rate and payoff (R) and projects the outcome distribution over a long series of repeated trades. It reports the expected return, the variance and standard deviation around it, and a realistic worst-case drawdown — so you can see whether a setup type is worth trading and how bumpy the road is likely to be.
The win rate and payoff can be measured automatically from a built-in trigger on the current symbol, or entered manually. From those two numbers it derives per-trade expectancy, projects the full ±1σ / ±2σ band of outcomes over the series, and condenses it into a single 0-100 Worth-Trading score.
This is an analytical (binomial) projection of expectancy and variance — not a random simulation, not a prediction of the next trade, and not a directional or automated system.
🎯 Purpose & Design Philosophy
A single trade tells you almost nothing about an edge — outcomes are dominated by variance. Traders abandon good setups after a few losses and over-trust bad ones after a few wins, because they judge edges one trade at a time instead of across the repetition that actually defines them.
Trade Outcome Simulator turns an abstract "edge" into a concrete outcome profile. By projecting the distribution over many repetitions, it shows the expected return, the realistic swings, and the worst-case drawdown to budget for. It is built for traders who want to know, before committing, whether a setup is statistically worth trading — and to size for the variance rather than be surprised by it.
⚡ Why This Script Is Different
Most edge tools report a single backward-looking number — a win rate, an average R, a profit factor — and stop there.
This script does NOT stop at a point estimate and does NOT pretend a win rate alone tells you the journey.
Instead, it projects the forward outcome distribution of repeating the setup: not just the expected total, but the standard deviation around it, the best and worst bands, and a realistic worst-case drawdown — the difference between knowing an edge exists and knowing what trading it will actually feel like.
⚙️ Methodology
1. Edge Inputs
Win rate (W) and payoff (R) — either measured from a built-in trigger that resolves target-before-stop on the current symbol, or entered manually.
2. Expectancy & Variance
Per-trade mean R = W·R − (1−W); per-trade variance from the two-outcome distribution.
3. Series Projection
Over a horizon of T trades: expected total = T·mean; standard deviation = √T·σ; the ±1σ and ±2σ outcome bands; and a worst-case drawdown approximated from the variance and a confidence band.
4. Worth-Trading Score
The expectancy-to-variance (Sharpe-like) ratio mapped to 0-100.
🗺️ How to Read the Chart
• Outcome strip = five tier-colored badges — Best, +1σ, Expected, −1σ, Worst — the distribution of total R over the series, in numbers only.
• Win / loss markers = where the measured engine resolved trades (Measured mode).
• Panel = win rate, payoff, per-trade expectancy, expected total, standard deviation, worst-case drawdown, the Worth-Trading score, verdict, and next action.
Green badges are positive outcomes; pink badges are negative. A robust edge shows a strip that stays positive even at the lower bands.
🚦 Signals & States
• Robust edge → positive expectancy with a healthy expectancy-to-variance ratio.
• Marginal — high variance → positive but thin versus the swings.
• Negative expectancy — skip → the math does not support trading the setup.
🔔 Alerts Logic
• Edge robust → conditions for a robust edge are met.
• Edge degraded → the edge has weakened to marginal or negative.
Alerts mark a change in the edge profile, not a trade instruction.
🧩 Confluence Logic
The Worth-Trading score is itself a confluence of return and risk: a high score requires both positive expectancy and a contained spread. A strong win rate with huge variance can still read as marginal — exactly the nuance a single statistic hides.
📊 When to Use
• Before adopting a setup type, to judge whether it is worth trading at all.
• To set realistic expectations for the drawdown and variance a series will produce.
• To compare two setups on expectancy-to-variance, not just win rate.
⚠️ When NOT to Use
• As a prediction of any single trade — the projection describes the series, not the next entry.
• With an unrealistic manual win rate or payoff — garbage in, garbage out.
• On too few measured samples — wait for the panel to leave the Building state before trusting the projection.
🎛️ Key Inputs
• Edge source → Measured or Manual.
• Manual win rate and payoff R.
• Measured engine → trigger lookback, stop distance, target payoff, samples.
• Series length (T) → how many repetitions to project.
• Worst-case band → confidence multiple for the drawdown estimate.
🖥️ Interface & Visual Design
The panel reads top-to-bottom from inputs to projection to verdict, and the on-chart outcome strip turns the distribution into a vertical ladder of tier-colored badges, evenly spaced so it stays readable on any symbol or timeframe. Both light and dark themes are included.
🧪 Practical Usage Workflow
1. Choose Measured or enter your own W and R.
2. Read per-trade expectancy and the Worth-Trading score.
3. Scan the outcome strip — note how negative the lower bands go.
4. If the edge is robust, size for the worst-case drawdown; if marginal or negative, refine the setup.
🔍 Interpretation Guidelines
Read the strip, not just the expected value. Two setups can share an expected return while one keeps its −2σ band positive and the other plunges deep into the red — the second demands far smaller size. The worst-case drawdown is the number to budget around, not the best case.
🚫 What This Script Is NOT
• Not a random Monte Carlo simulation — it is an analytical (binomial) projection.
• Not a prediction of any individual trade or of price direction.
• Not financial advice.
• Not an automated trading system, and not a guarantee of any outcome.
⚠️ Limitations & Transparency
The projection assumes each trade is independent and identically distributed with the given win rate and payoff — real trades cluster, edges drift, and conditions change, so treat the output as a model, not a forecast. Measured win rates depend on the built-in trigger, which is a proxy for your entry, not your exact setup. The worst-case drawdown is a confidence-band approximation, not a hard floor. Read it all as a reasoned estimate to inform judgement.
🔐 Non-Promise Statement
A robust projection is not a promise of profit, and a positive expected value is not a promise that any given run will be positive. The model describes a distribution, not a destiny.
📉 Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk. This script is an analytical and educational tool only. It does not provide financial advice or guaranteed outcomes. All trading decisions, and their consequences, remain entirely your own responsibility.
📚 Educational Note
Expectancy, variance, and drawdown are the core mathematics of any trading edge: the recognition that an edge lives in the distribution of many trades, not in any single one. This simulator brings that distribution onto the chart.
Release Notes
🔧 UPDATE NOTES - V1.0.1This focused maintenance update improves outcome-model accuracy, ambiguity handling, statistical language, visual cleanup, and interface behavior while preserving the original Trade Outcome Simulator concept.
The script still converts a measured or manually supplied win rate and payoff into analytical expectancy, dispersion, and repeated-outcome bands.
This script continues to function as an analytical and visualization tool. It does not predict individual trades, reproduce a complete equity path, or provide guaranteed outcomes.
------------------------
What Changed
------------------------
• Explicit same-bar ambiguity handling
Historical OHLC bars cannot reveal whether a target or stop was touched first when both levels fall inside the same candle. The measured engine now provides Exclude, Stop First, and Target First modes. Exclude is the default and avoids assigning an unknowable result.
• Transparent excluded-outcome counts
Same-bar ambiguous and timed-out slots are now counted separately. They do not silently enter the resolved win-rate sample.
• Corrected outcome-band terminology
The old “worst-case drawdown” value was not a pathwise maximum-drawdown calculation. It has been replaced with a mathematically consistent lower terminal outcome band:
Series mean − selected sigma multiple × series standard deviation.
• Configurable upper and lower bands
The Outcome Band input now controls both terminal outer bands. The outcome strip no longer hardcodes ±2σ while the panel uses another multiplier.
• Bounded outcome-quality score
The former Worth-Trading score has been replaced with a bounded Edge Quality calculation based on expectancy relative to per-trade dispersion. It is a heuristic context score, not a probability or instruction.
------------------------
Visual Improvements
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• Replaced Best / Worst badges with explicit +Nσ / −Nσ terminal outcome labels.
• Replaced Expected with MEAN so the strip communicates the modeled series mean more precisely.
• Replaced Worst-case DD with Lower Band (Nσ).
• Replaced Worth-Trading with Outcome Quality.
• Replaced directive verdict and Next Action wording with neutral verdict and Context language.
• Preserved the signature five-level outcome strip and premium AGPro color hierarchy.
------------------------
Interface & Usability
------------------------
• Show Panel remains enabled by default.
• Panel position, Dark / Light theme, panel font size, label size, and strip controls remain configurable.
• Disabling the outcome strip now removes existing badges immediately instead of leaving stale labels.
• Disabling the panel now clears existing table content immediately.
• The panel header is rebuilt after table clearing as one merged blue row containing only AG Pro Trade Outcome Simulator.
• Alerts now require confirmed-bar state changes and use neutral outcome-quality language.
------------------------
Behavior Notes
------------------------
Measured mode tracks one non-overlapping setup slot at a time. The win rate is based only on resolved target-or-stop outcomes. Ambiguous same-bar events and timed-out slots are reported but excluded when Exclude is selected.
Manual mode uses the supplied win-rate and payoff assumptions directly.
The mean and variance calculations describe a two-outcome model with +R wins and −1R losses. Upper and lower sigma bands are moment-based terminal reference levels around the projected series mean. They are not exact quantiles, best/worst possible outcomes, or pathwise drawdown estimates.
Outcome Quality is a normalized expectancy-versus-dispersion heuristic. It is not a probability of profit and does not validate the assumptions supplied to the model.
------------------------
Limitations Reminder
------------------------
The model assumes repeated independent outcomes with stable win rate and payoff. Real market outcomes can cluster, gap, change regime, and deviate materially from those assumptions.
Measured mode uses the built-in breakout proxy rather than the user's exact discretionary setup. OHLC bars do not contain intrabar event order.
Small samples, excluded events, changing volatility, slippage, fees, and execution differences can materially affect real results.
------------------------
Risk Reminder
------------------------
This script is for educational and analytical purposes only.
It does not provide financial advice, automated trading, guaranteed signals, or guaranteed outcomes.
Users remain responsible for their own analysis and decisions.
Release Notes
🔧 UPDATE NOTES - V1.0.2• Refreshed the publication and access routing information.
• Core trade-outcome simulation logic, panel behavior, inputs, alerts, visuals, and outputs remain unchanged.
Release Notes
🔧 UPDATE NOTES - V1.0.5This update focuses on chart identity, compact presentation, and first-glance usability.
The measured outcome engine, confidence-floor calculations, and verdict rules remain unchanged.
------------------------
What Changed
------------------------
• Rebuilt the five outcome badges as a connected Outcome Distribution Rail.
• Added a dedicated rail title, vertical distribution spine, and five compact connectors.
• Compressed the measured panel by combining observed and confidence-floor expectancy into one row.
• Shortened panel labels and interpretation text without removing decision-critical information.
------------------------
Visual Improvements
------------------------
• The distribution now reads as one intentional analytical object instead of five disconnected labels.
• UPPER, MEAN, and LOWER hierarchy is immediately visible.
• The panel occupies substantially less horizontal chart space.
• Filled, contrast-aware badges remain readable on light and dark chart themes.
------------------------
Interface & Usability
------------------------
• Panel visibility, location, theme, panel font size, and label font size remain adjustable.
• The distribution rail follows the existing strip offset and spacing controls.
• No full-width price lines were added; the rail represents modeled outcomes, not price targets.
------------------------
Behavior Notes
------------------------
This update does not change measured entries, target/stop resolution, statistical projections, or confidence grading.
Users should interpret the connected rail as a compact distribution summary around the current chart location.
------------------------
Limitations Reminder
------------------------
The distribution rail is a visual analytical reference and does not represent forecast price levels.
Market conditions, sample size, volatility, and timeframe selection can affect measured outcomes.
------------------------
Risk Reminder
------------------------
This script is for educational and analytical purposes only.
It does not provide financial advice or guaranteed trading outcomes.
Users remain responsible for their own decisions.
Release Notes
🔧 UPDATE NOTES - V1.0.6This update focuses on decision-panel clarity and visual consistency.
The core purpose of the script remains unchanged. This release improves how the existing outcome model is framed and interpreted on the chart.
This script continues to function as an analytical and visualization tool. It does not attempt to predict price direction or provide guaranteed outcomes.
------------------------
What Changed
------------------------
• Added a compact analytical question directly below the panel title:
“DOES THE EDGE CLEAR THE FLOOR?”
• Preserved the existing measured-outcome engine, Wilson confidence floor, expectancy model, sigma bands, and evidence classification.
• Reorganized panel row placement so Measured, Manual, and sample-building states retain the same clear hierarchy.
• Added theme-aware question text contrast for both Dark and Light panel themes.
------------------------
Visual Improvements
------------------------
• Strengthened the first-glance relationship between observed expectancy and the confidence-adjusted floor.
• Kept the connected outcome-distribution rail unchanged to preserve its compact visual signature.
• Maintained configurable label size, panel size, panel position, and theme controls.
------------------------
Interface & Usability
------------------------
• Improved panel information flow without expanding the metric set.
• Preserved the concise verdict and contextual readout.
• Kept the chart focused on the projected mean and sigma reference levels.
------------------------
Behavior Notes
------------------------
This update does not change the core analytical logic of the script.
Measured outcomes, same-bar ambiguity handling, confidence-floor calculations, verdict rules, alerts, and projected distribution values behave as before.
------------------------
Limitations Reminder
------------------------
The script remains a rule-based, moment-based outcome model.
Market conditions, sample depth, timeframe selection, volatility, and the chosen trigger model may materially affect the displayed results.
------------------------
Risk Reminder
------------------------
This script is for educational and analytical purposes only.
It does not provide financial advice or guaranteed trading outcomes.
Users remain responsible for their own decisions.
Release Notes
Version 1.1.0 – Realtime-Safe Outcome Rail RefreshThis update improves the active outcome-distribution rail, chart readability, and historical rendering efficiency while preserving the measured/manual analytical model.
• Replaced the active rail’s repeated delete-and-recreate cycle with in-place line and label synchronization.
• Kept the active rail and decision panel on every last-bar update for stable realtime visibility under TradingView rollback behavior.
• Added a configurable win/loss marker history window, set to 1,200 bars by default, to keep historical chart work bounded.
• Reduced reserved label and line budgets to match the smaller persistent visual footprint.
• Expanded the distribution heading with the projection horizon and current evidence source: measured sample count or manual mode.
• Refined outcome badges with clearer separators and stronger visual ownership of the distribution ladder.
• Added alternating panel-row surfaces to improve scanning while preserving the merged blue title and analytical-question rows.
• Preserved the measured outcome engine, same-bar ambiguity handling, Wilson confidence floor, expectancy and variance calculations, and existing alerts.
The core purpose of the script remains unchanged. This release improves how the existing logic is presented, maintained, and interpreted on the chart.
This script remains a rule-based analytical and visualization tool. Market conditions, timeframe selection, sample quality, and user-defined assumptions can affect the displayed distribution. It does not provide financial advice, automated trading, predictions, or guaranteed outcomes.
Invite-only script
Only users approved by the author can access this script. You'll need to request and get permission to use it. This is typically granted after payment. For more details, follow the author's instructions below or contact AGProLabs directly.
TradingView does NOT recommend paying for or using a script unless you fully trust its author and understand how it works. You may also find free, open-source alternatives in our community scripts.
Author's instructions
Request access to Trade Outcome Simulator [AGPro Series]:
https://www.agprolabs.com/product/trade-outcome-simulator/
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tradingview.com/script/XJmX3p98-Trading-Suite-AGPro-Series/
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tradingview.com/script/LgVRo7Ql-Crypto-Setup-Planner-AGPro-Series/
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Invite-only script
Only users approved by the author can access this script. You'll need to request and get permission to use it. This is typically granted after payment. For more details, follow the author's instructions below or contact AGProLabs directly.
TradingView does NOT recommend paying for or using a script unless you fully trust its author and understand how it works. You may also find free, open-source alternatives in our community scripts.
Author's instructions
Request access to Trade Outcome Simulator [AGPro Series]:
https://www.agprolabs.com/product/trade-outcome-simulator/
🧠 Trading Suite - Flagship Workflow
tradingview.com/script/XJmX3p98-Trading-Suite-AGPro-Series/
🔷 Crypto Setup Planner - Multi-Symbol Planner
tradingview.com/script/LgVRo7Ql-Crypto-Setup-Planner-AGPro-Series/
tradingview.com/script/XJmX3p98-Trading-Suite-AGPro-Series/
🔷 Crypto Setup Planner - Multi-Symbol Planner
tradingview.com/script/LgVRo7Ql-Crypto-Setup-Planner-AGPro-Series/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.