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Marketcycles

Bitcoin Cycle Highs and LowsOVERVIEW The Bitcoin Cycle Highs and Lows indicator maps out the historical macro market cycle tops and bottoms of Bitcoin, dating back to 2011. In addition to serving as a visual map of historical market phases, the indicator features an algorithmic projection engine. This engine uses various statistical and geometric decay models to forecast the date and price of future macro highs and lows based on the asset's historical behaviour. This tool is designed for macro-level market analysis, allowing traders to visualise diminishing returns, cycle duration trends, and phase retracements. I created this indicator during a "vibe coding" session (cringe) with Google Gemini in an AI Canvas. Check out the YouTube video on this at the mafftopia channel. CHART ELEMENTS The indicator plots several visual elements: • Vertical Cycle Markers: Solid vertical lines identify the exact date of historical macro highs (Red) and macro lows (Lime). • Price & Date Labels: Located at the anchor of each vertical line, detailing the exact recorded date and price (formatted automatically to the chart's active currency). • Phase Arrows (Dashed Lines): Horizontal dashed lines connecting a low to the subsequent high (Bull Phase) or a high to the subsequent low (Bear Phase). • Phase Statistics: Floating text labels positioned at the end of each Phase Arrow. These display the duration of the phase in days, the absolute price change, and the percentage move from the previous point. PREDICTION MODELS The indicator includes multiple distinct mathematical models for projecting future dates and prices. Date Predictors: • Previous bar count: Projects the next date by applying the exact duration of the most recent corresponding cycle. • Average: Calculates the simple arithmetic average duration of all historical cycles of the same type. • Weighted average: Averages previous cycle lengths but applies a mathematical recency bias, giving more weight to recent cycles to account for cycle duration stabilisation. Price Predictors: • Previous % move: Projects the next target by applying the exact percentage multiplier of the most recent corresponding cycle. • Average: Projects the target using the geometric mean of all historical cycle multipliers, limiting the skew of extreme outliers. • Diminishing gains: Analyses the cycle-over-cycle rate of change. It isolates peak-to-peak or trough-to-trough macro moves, calculates the historical decay in those percentage gains, and applies the decayed growth rate to project the next target. • Fibonacci extension decay: Evaluates swing ratios by measuring the magnitude of a phase relative to the preceding phase (for example, how far a bull market extended past the previous bear market drop). It calculates the historical decay of that extension premium and applies it to the current swing. SETTINGS AND INPUTS • Predictions: Determines the number of future cycle highs and lows to project. Set to 0 to disable projections and only view historical data. • Date predictor: Selects the algorithmic model used to project the X-axis (time) coordinate of future cycle points. • Price predictor: Selects the algorithmic model used to project the Y-axis (price) coordinate of future cycle points. • Bear/Bull market arrows: Toggles the visibility of the horizontal dashed lines and their accompanying statistical labels. • Full height backgrounds: When true, vertical cycle markers extend infinitely across the Y-axis. When false, markers anchor precisely to the price level of the previous cycle phase, creating a stair-step visualisation. • Ignore 2011 cycle: Excludes the extreme volatility and outliers of the 2011 cycle from the indicator's mathematical averages and trend decay calculations. • Backtest # lows/highs: A testing feature that temporarily removes the most recent 1 or 2 historical cycle points from the dataset. This allows users to test the prediction models against known outcomes to evaluate their historical accuracy.
Pine Script® indicator
by mafftopia
Market Cycle Projection EngineMarket Cycle Projection Engine WHAT IT DOES Market Cycle Projection Engine (MCPE) is a fully original indicator built in Pine Script v6 that automatically identifies the current market cycle phase, draws key structural levels, and projects the next expected price movement all on a single overlay chart. Unlike traditional indicators that react to price, MCPE analyzes the internal structure of market behavior using a four-phase cycle model inspired by Wyckoff methodology, combined with a linear regression slope engine and volatility expansion/contraction logic. WHAT MAKES IT ORIGINAL Most cycle indicators either repaint, rely on subjective drawing, or require manual input. MCPE does none of these. The core innovation is a three-factor phase classification engine: 1. Linear Regression Slope measures the true directional momentum of price over the cycle lookback period, normalized by ATR to make it comparable across all assets and timeframes. 2. ATR Ratio (Volatility State) compares current ATR to its own slow average to detect whether volatility is expanding (trending phase) or contracting (consolidation phase). 3. Price Position in Cycle Range determines whether price is in the lower 40% (potential accumulation) or upper 60% (potential distribution) of the cycle's high/low range. These three factors combine to produce a four-phase classification that updates automatically on every bar without any repainting. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THE FOUR CYCLE PHASES 🔵 ACCUMULATION Slope is flat. Volatility is contracting. Price is in the lower portion of the cycle range. This is where institutions quietly build long positions before the markup phase. Candles colored cyan. 🟢 MARKUP Slope is rising. Volatility is expanding. This is the trending upward phase the reward for accumulation patience. Candles colored green. 🟠 DISTRIBUTION Slope is flat again. Volatility is contracting. Price is now in the upper portion of the cycle range. Smart money is offloading positions to retail buyers. Candles colored orange. 🔴 MARKDOWN Slope is falling. Volatility is expanding downward. The cycle completes its rotation back toward accumulation. Candles colored red. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ HOW TO USE Step 1 Read the Phase Look at the current candle color and the Dashboard panel (top-right). The Cycle Phase row tells you exactly where the market is in its current rotation. Step 2 Check Cycle Position % The Cycle Position metric shows where price sits within the current cycle range (0% = bottom, 100% = top). Below 30% = potential accumulation opportunity. Above 70% = potential distribution / caution zone. Step 3 Use the Projection Arrow When a phase transition occurs, MCPE draws a directional projection line showing the expected next move. The arrow length is calculated from the average of the previous two cycle swing ranges and expressed as a percentage of current price. This is NOT a price prediction it is a probabilistic projection based on historical cycle amplitude. Step 4 Respect the Key Levels Three horizontal levels are always visible: Cycle High upper boundary of the current cycle range. Cycle Low lower boundary of the current cycle range. Mid the equilibrium level between the two. Price returning to Mid after an extreme move is a common mean-reversion setup. Step 5 Confirm with Volatility and Volume The Dashboard shows Volatility Status and Volume reading. Strong signals occur when phase transitions align with expanding volatility and elevated volume simultaneously. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ CALCULATION LOGIC Phase Classification: lr_slope = linreg(close, cycle_len, 0) - linreg(close, cycle_len, 1) lr_slope_norm = lr_slope / ATR(14) atr_ratio = ATR(14) / ATR(cycle_len) price_pos = (close - cycle_low) / cycle_range Markup : lr_slope_norm > 0.1 AND atr_ratio > 1.1 Markdown : lr_slope_norm < -0.1 AND atr_ratio > 1.1 Accumulation: slope flat AND price_pos < 0.4 Distribution: slope flat AND price_pos >= 0.4 Projection Amplitude (Last Cycle method): avg_range = (|meso_high - meso_low| + |prev_high - prev_low|) / 2 target = last_pivot + avg_range (bull) or - avg_range (bear) Volatility Status: High when ATR(14) > SMA(ATR(14), 20) * 1.3 Cycle Strength (0-100): Measures how far price deviates from the cycle midpoint, expressed as a percentage of the total cycle range. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ SETTINGS Cycle lookback (bars) Controls how many bars define one full cycle. Increase for macro analysis, decrease for shorter-term cycles. Recommended: 50 for daily, 30 for 4H, 20 for 1H. S/R pivot lookback Controls how far back the indicator looks for key support and resistance pivot points. Projection bars How many bars into the future the projection line extends. Projection basis Three methods available: Cycle Average uses average of last two swing ranges. Last Cycle uses 75% of the most recent cycle range. ATR Multiple uses ATR × 30 as a fixed projection size. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ COMPATIBILITY Works on all assets Crypto, Forex, Stocks, Indices, Futures. Works on all timeframes. Best results on Daily and 4H charts for swing trading. For intraday use, reduce cycle_len to 20-30. No repainting. All signals calculated on bar close. No lookahead bias. No request.security() with lookahead. No Heikin Ashi or non-standard chart dependency. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ALERTS INCLUDED Phase: Accumulation detected Phase: Markup detected Phase: Distribution detected Phase: Markdown detected ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ DISCLAIMER This indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Past cycle patterns do not guarantee future results. Markets are inherently unpredictable. Always apply your own analysis and use proper risk management before placing any trade. The author is not responsible for any trading losses incurred from use of this indicator. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Pine Script® indicator
by AleksDU
Linear Regression Channel With Pearson's R (Multi Sigma & MTF)This indicator applies multi‑sigma linear regression across multiple institutional time horizons to quantify the line of best fit in equities and index markets. By combining multi‑timeframe presets with statistically derived deviation bands, it highlights trend structure, volatility expansion, and regime transitions with clarity. What’s New in This Update The original version of the indicator produced a linear regression channel with multiple deviation bands. However, the statistical values it displayed were not mathematically valid. The value labeled “r” was not Pearson’s correlation coefficient and could not be used to derive R² or any formal regression diagnostics. This update introduces a fully correct statistical engine based on ordinary least squares (OLS). NEW STATISTICAL OUTPUTS • True Pearson’s r • True R² (coefficient of determination) • RSS (Residual Sum of Squares) • TSS (Total Sum of Squares) These values are mathematically valid, bounded, and directly tied to the regression line. KEY IMPROVEMENTS • Correct OLS intercept (removes the erroneous +slope term) • Proper predicted values using ŷ = b₀ + b₁x • Correct centering around the actual mean of the data • Removal of correlation logic from the deviation engine • Clean separation between statistical computation and volatility computation • Regression channel visuals remain identical, but the underlying math is now fully accurate These changes ensure that r and R² reflect true trend strength and model fit, enabling more reliable interpretation of long‑term and short‑term trend regimes. CORE FEATURES (UNCHANGED) • Auto‑Multi‑Timeframe presets aligned with institutional trend horizons • Multi‑Sigma bands (+/‑1σ, +/‑2σ, +/‑3σ) for volatility structure and statistical extremes • True least‑squares regression recalculated each bar • Deviation mode toggle (Standard Deviation vs. Max Deviation) • Full documentation and institutional use‑case examples available on GitHub More information can be found here: github.com
Pine Script® indicator
by followmytradingjournal
Pi Cycle BTC Top + Pre-Alert BandsPi Cycle BTC Top + Pre-Alert Bands is an advanced implementation of the classic Pi Cycle Top model, designed for Bitcoin cycle analysis on higher timeframes (especially 1D BTCUSD/BTCUSD·INDEX). The original Pi Cycle Top uses two moving averages: • 111-day SMA (short MA) • 350-day SMA ×2 (long MA) A Pi Top is signaled when the 111 SMA crosses above the 350×2 SMA. Historically, this has occurred near major BTC cycle highs. This script extends that idea with a 3-step early-warning sequence: • Pi Green – early compression: short/long MA ratio crosses upward into the green band (convergence from below is required). • Pi Yellow – mid-cycle warning: only fires if a valid Green has already occurred in the same cycle. • Pi Cycle Top – final top: the classic Pi Cycle cross, limited to one top signal per cycle. After a top, no new Yellow or Top signals can appear until a new Green event starts the next cycle. Background shading shows the active phase (Green / Yellow / late-cycle zone), so you can see at a glance where BTC is within its Pi-based macro structure. All logic is non-repainting: request.security() uses lookahead_off and no future data is accessed. Typical use This indicator is intended as a macro-cycle timing and risk-awareness tool, not a stand-alone entry system. Many traders use it to: • Watch for Pi Green as the start of a potential late-cycle advance. • Treat Pi Yellow as a rising-risk environment and tighten risk management. • Use the Pi Cycle Top as a historical high-risk zone where large profit-taking or hedging may be considered. Always combine this with your own analysis (trend, volume, on-chain, macro) before making decisions. How to set alerts Add the indicator to your chart (1D BTCUSD or BTCUSD·INDEX recommended). Click Alerts → Condition → Pi Cycle BTC Top + Pre-Alert Bands. Choose one of:   • Pi Cycle – Green Pre-Alert (early convergence)   • Pi Cycle – Yellow Pre-Alert (after Green only)   • Pi Cycle – TOP (Single per Cycle, after Green) Use “Once per bar close” for higher-timeframe reliability. Disclaimer This tool is for educational and analytical purposes only. The Pi Cycle concept is based on historical behavior and does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice; always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
Pine Script® indicator
by KOMMODO_IO
Bitcoin: Mayer MultipleMayer Multiple Indicator The Mayer Multiple is a powerful tool designed to help traders assess market conditions and identify optimal buying or selling opportunities. It calculates the ratio between the current price and its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), visualizing key thresholds that indicate value zones, caution areas, and overheated markets. Key Features: Dynamic Market Zones: Clearly marked levels like "Smash Buy," "Boost DCA," and "Extreme Euphoria" to guide your trading decisions. Customizable Input: Adjust the SMA length to fit your strategy. Color-Coded Signals: Intuitive visualization of market sentiment for quick analysis. Comprehensive Thresholds: Historical insights into price behavior with plotted reference levels based on probabilities. This indicator is ideal for traders aiming to enhance their long-term strategies and improve decision-making in volatile markets. Use it to gain an edge in identifying potential turning points and managing risk effectively.
Pine Script® indicator
by sito4713
Bitcoin Bubble Risk (Adjusted for Diminishing Returns)Description: This indicator offers a unique lens through which traders can assess risk in the Bitcoin market, specifically tailored to recognize the phenomenon of diminishing returns. By calculating the natural logarithm of the price relative to a 20-month Simple Moving Average (SMA) and applying a dynamic normalization process, this tool highlights periods of varying risk based on historical price movements and adjusted returns. The indicator is designed to provide nuanced insights into potential risk levels, aiding traders in their decision-making processes. Usage: To effectively use this indicator, apply it to your chart while ensuring that Bitcoin's price is set to display in monthly candles. This setting is vital for the indicator to accurately reflect the market's risk levels, as it relies on long-term data aggregation to inform its analysis. This tool is especially beneficial for traders focused on medium to long-term investment horizons in Bitcoin, offering insights into when the market may be entering higher or lower risk phases. By incorporating this indicator into your analysis, you can gain a deeper understanding of potential risk exposures based on the adjusted price trends and market conditions. Originality and Utility: This script stands out for its innovative approach to risk analysis in the cryptocurrency space. By adjusting for the diminishing returns seen in mature markets, it provides a refined perspective on risk levels, enhancing traditional methodologies. This script is a significant contribution to the TradingView community, offering a unique tool for traders aiming to navigate the complexities of the Bitcoin market with informed risk management strategies. Important Note: This indicator is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. The accuracy of the indicator's predictions can only be ensured when applied to monthly candlestick charts of Bitcoin.
Pine Script® indicator
by amazedCode26897
1
Market Time Cycle (Expo)█ Time Cycles Overview Time cycles are a fascinating and powerful concept in the world of trading and investing. They are all about understanding and predicting the timing of market moves based on the premise that market events and price movements are not random, but instead occur in repeatable, cyclical patterns. The Concept of Time Cycles: The foundation of time cycles lies in the belief that historical market patterns tend to repeat themselves over specific periods. These periods or cycles could be influenced by a myriad of factors like economic data releases, earnings reports, geopolitical events, or even natural human behavior. For example, some traders observe increased market activity around the start and end of a trading day, which is a form of intraday time cycle. Understanding time cycles can provide traders with a roadmap, helping them anticipate potential trend shifts and make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell. █ Indicator Overview The Market Time Cycle (Expo) is designed to help traders track and analyze market cycles and generate signals for potential trading opportunities. It uses mathematical techniques to analyze market cycles and detect possible turning points. It does this by projecting the estimated cycle timeline and providing visual indications of cyclical phases through the use of color-coded lines and sine wave cycles. Time cycles offer a compelling way to forecast market trends and time your trades better. By adding time cycles to your trading toolbox, you could potentially gain a new perspective on market movements and refine your trading strategy further. The indicator generates trading signals based on the sine wave's behavior. When the sine wave crosses certain thresholds, the indicator generates a signal suggesting a potential trading opportunity based on cycle behavior. █ How to use This indicator can be a valuable tool to help traders understand and predict market trends and time their trades more accurately. By visualizing the cyclic nature of markets, traders can better anticipate potential turning points and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. It helps traders to spot ideal entry and exit points based on the cyclical nature of financial markets. █ Settings You can customize the number of bars (NumbOfBars) that are taken into consideration for the cycle. Including a higher number of bars will provide more data, which can be helpful for analyzing long-term trends. ----------------- Disclaimer The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Pine Script® indicator
by Zeiierman
11
RSI+ by Wilson (alt)Extension of the excellent RSI+ script by Wilsonlibero. I tweaked the parameters to better fit crypto markets, and I added a few more visuals, such as midline, overbought/oversold threshold lines and areas, background coloration depending on RSI trend above or below midline, and a few other tweaks especially colors (fixed the transp parameter deprecation for example). The color theme is by default more optimized for dark mode charts, but all colors can be configured, and all drawings can be enabled/disabled/tweaked in the parameters. I'm just giving back to the community since I could modify this script only because it was open-source. If you like this script, please don't give me any credit, but please show some love to the original author Wilsonlibero:
Pine Script® indicator
by tartigradia
4