Delivery Regime Map [AGPro Series]Delivery Regime Map
🔹 Overview
Delivery Regime Map classifies the market's delivery character into four distinct regimes — Balanced, Directional, Fragmented, and Exhausted — giving traders instant context on whether the tape is trending with conviction, consolidating, breaking into volatile chop, or fading after an extended move. Rather than asking "is this bullish or bearish?", DRM answers a more useful question: "what kind of market am I in, and what kind of setup is appropriate here?"
The indicator overlays a soft state ribbon across the chart, prints confirmed regime shift labels at the moment of transition, and maintains a compact status panel with the active regime, a composite conviction score, regime duration, and time since the last shift. All outputs are confirmed on bar close with dwell-based hysteresis to suppress noise.
🎯 Unique Edge
Most regime or trend-strength tools collapse the market into a single linear axis (strong ↔ weak, bullish ↔ bearish). Delivery Regime Map is categorical, not linear — it identifies the qualitative character of price delivery by fusing four independent dimensions:
• Displacement quality (how much of each bar's range is body vs. wick)
• Directional persistence (close-to-close consistency + EMA slope alignment)
• Continuity (same-side runs penalized by gap noise)
• Range expansion (current range normalized by ATR baseline)
These dimensions combine into a composite score, but the regime classification uses banded thresholds with hysteresis — meaning a Directional tape must decisively lose its edge before flipping to Fragmented or Exhausted. This produces sparse, high-conviction transitions rather than the constant flipping typical of single-value strength meters.
⚙️ Methodology
The engine computes five rolling metrics across a user-defined window (default 20 bars):
1. Displacement Quality — |close − open| / range, smoothed. High values mean strong, decisive bars with minimal wick rejection.
2. Directional Persistence — average signed close direction plus an EMA slope-alignment check. Rewards tapes that move one way without reversing.
3. Continuity — the proportion of consecutive same-side candles, penalized by an average gap-size term (opens far from prior closes indicate fractured delivery).
4. Range Expansion — current range vs. ATR baseline, clipped to . High expansion combined with low continuity flags Fragmented tapes.
5. Exhaustion Proxy — the decay rate of displacement quality after a period of high persistence. Triggers near trend terminations where bars shrink while direction lingers.
A classifier selects the active regime by priority (Directional → Exhausted → Fragmented → Balanced), and a dwell-bar confirmation (default 5 bars, or 8 under Strict mode) plus a minimum-gap filter (default 10 bars) prevent whipsaw transitions.
🚦 Signals & Alerts
Four alert conditions are built in, each firing only on a confirmed regime shift:
• Regime shifted to Directional — conviction is rising; the tape is trending
• Regime shifted to Fragmented — wide, disconnected bars; chop risk elevated
• Regime shifted to Exhausted — prior trend is losing steam; mean-reversion risk
• Regime shifted to Balanced — low-conviction state; breakout potential building
All alerts include the ticker and interval in the message payload.
🎛️ Key Inputs
• Regime Window (8–60) — length of the measurement window
• Regime Sensitivity (Low / Normal / High) — hysteresis band width
• Strict Classifier — extends dwell requirement from 5 to 8 bars
• Minimum Bars Between Shifts — anti-chop spacing filter
• Show State Ribbon / Regime Shift Labels — visual toggles
• Panel Position + Font Size — 6 anchor positions, 5 size options
• Label Font Size — matches user's chart density preference
Every input carries an inline tooltip explaining its behavior and tradeoffs.
📚 How to Use
• Use Directional regimes to favor trend-following entries and trailing stops
• Use Balanced regimes to prepare for breakouts; volatility compression often precedes expansion
• Use Fragmented regimes as a caution flag — reduce size, widen stops, or stand aside
• Use Exhausted regimes to tighten trailing stops on open trend positions; the edge may be fading
DRM is designed to be asset-agnostic and timeframe-agnostic. On lower timeframes (1m–15m), consider Strict mode and a larger minimum-gap value. On daily charts, defaults typically work well. Combine with any entry framework — order blocks, breakout levels, VWAP reclaims — as a regime filter that answers "should I even be looking for a setup here?"
⚠️ Limitations & Transparency
• The classifier is reactive, not predictive — it confirms regime changes on close, so a Directional label appears a few bars after the trend has begun. This is by design: dwell confirmation is the primary noise filter.
• Regime definitions are categorical interpretations of price statistics. They are not forecasts.
• The composite score reflects regime conviction, not directional bias. A high score in Fragmented means "confidently choppy", not "confidently bullish".
• This indicator is not a strategy. It produces no entry signals, no take-profit targets, and no stop-loss levels. It is a market-context tool intended to be combined with a trader's existing framework.
• Past regime behavior does not guarantee future regime behavior. Market character can change abruptly on news or macro events.
📜 Risk Disclosure
This indicator is published for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a trading recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any instrument. Trading and investing carry risk of loss, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Users are solely responsible for their own decisions and should consult qualified professionals before committing capital.
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