Setup Decay Tracker [AGPro Series]Setup Decay Tracker
🧠 Core Idea
Is a once-valid setup still healthy, or is its quality decaying over time?
📌 Overview / What it does
Setup Decay Tracker is a chart-first execution planning tool built to evaluate what happens after a setup has already started forming. Instead of treating every trigger as equally useful, it separates the process into two stages: setup validation and post-validation quality decay.
The script builds an active decay band, validation rail, follow-through rail, invalidation shelf, expiry marker, state labels, and a compact planning panel. Its purpose is to show whether the active setup is still valid, starting to fade, entering decay review, expiring, reclaiming its trigger side, or invalidating.
It does not predict price, automate trades, or issue buy/sell commands. Alerts and labels are attention markers designed to help traders review setup quality within broader market context.
🎯 Purpose & Design Philosophy
This script was built for traders who already understand that the first setup trigger is only the beginning of the decision process. A setup can look valid at first, then lose quality because time passes, momentum fades, volatility contracts, follow-through stalls, or price loses and reclaims the trigger side.
The gap it fills is post-validation review. Many tools mark a trigger, but fewer tools ask whether that trigger is aging well after it becomes valid. Setup Decay Tracker focuses on that question with a clean visual workflow.
The design supports a planning mindset: validate first, monitor quality second, review decay third.
⚡ Why This Script Is Different
Most tools focus on the moment a signal appears.
This script does NOT behave like a generic signal generator, broad regime classifier, support/resistance map, order-block map, or simple breakout alert.
Instead, it tracks the lifecycle of one active setup after validation. It asks whether the setup is still earning its place on the chart by measuring time risk, follow-through, momentum loss, volatility loss, trigger-side reclaim behavior, and invalidation context.
⚙️ Methodology
1. Context Detection
The script identifies the evaluation side using trend and range context, or the user can force long-side or short-side tracking.
2. Setup Validation
A trigger starts tracking, but the setup is not treated as fully valid until it reaches minimum favorable ATR travel and a validation-quality threshold.
3. Decay Evaluation
After validation, the script measures the active setup with a 0-100 decay model based on time risk, momentum loss, volatility loss, failed follow-through, and reclaim behavior.
4. Visual Output
The result appears as a decay band, validation rail, follow-through rail, invalidation shelf, expiry marker, compact labels, and a premium AGPro planning panel.
🗺️ How to Read the Chart
Zones = the active setup decay band between the follow-through reference and the invalidation shelf.
Labels = state changes such as TRACK, VALID, WATCH, DECAY, RECLAIM, EXPIRED, and INVALID.
Colors = teal for healthier states, gold for watch states, pink/red for decay review or invalidation pressure, and indigo for validation or reclaim context.
Panel = the decision summary showing Decay Score, Time Risk, Follow-Through, Invalidation, and Action.
🚦 Signals & States
• TRACK → a new setup is being monitored for validation
• VALID → the setup reached minimum quality and decay tracking is active
• STILL VALID → decay score remains low and follow-through is still acceptable
• QUALITY WATCH → quality is fading, but the setup has not reached decay review
• DECAY REVIEW → the setup has enough quality decay to deserve closer review
• RECLAIM → price recovered the trigger side after temporary loss
• EXPIRED → the setup aged beyond the active decay window or reached expiry-level decay
• INVALID → the invalidation shelf was crossed inside this rule set
🔔 Alerts Logic
The script includes alerts for:
• New setup tracking
• Setup validation
• Quality watch state
• Decay review state
• Trigger-side reclaim
• Setup expiry
• Setup invalidation
Alerts are attention markers. They are not trade instructions and should be interpreted with market structure, liquidity, volatility, and timeframe context.
🧩 Confluence Logic
The decay model becomes more meaningful when several conditions align.
When time risk rises, follow-through remains weak, momentum fades, volatility contracts, and price struggles around the trigger side, the setup decay context becomes stronger.
When follow-through improves, the trigger side holds, volatility remains healthy, and momentum stays directional, the setup remains cleaner.
📊 When to Use
• Breakout setups that need post-trigger validation
• Trend-reclaim setups where quality can fade after the first reclaim
• Continuation contexts where follow-through matters
• Active trade planning where invalidation and target references need to stay visible
• Markets where setup aging and time risk are part of the decision process
⚠️ When NOT to Use
• Extremely low-liquidity symbols
• Very noisy micro timeframes where triggers appear too frequently
• News-driven candles where normal volatility logic becomes distorted
• Markets with large gaps that make ATR-based validation less stable
• Situations where the user expects automatic entries, exits, or guaranteed outcomes
🎛️ Key Inputs
• Evaluation Side → chooses Auto, Long Setup, or Short Setup tracking
• Trigger Model → controls whether tracking starts from range acceptance, trend reclaim, or impulse continuation
• Sensitivity → changes how strict validation and decay response should be
• Setup Lookback → defines the recent structure window used for trigger context
• Validation Travel ATR → sets the minimum favorable movement needed before a setup is considered valid
• Decay Tracking Bars → controls how long a validated setup remains active
• Follow-Through Target ATR → defines the progress reference used inside the decay model
• Invalidation Buffer ATR → builds the invalidation shelf beyond the trigger candle
• Label and Panel Font Size → controls visual readability
🖥️ Interface & Visual Design
The interface is built around a clean chart-first layout. The decay band gives the setup a visible lifecycle area, while the centered band label summarizes the active state without requiring a dashboard-only workflow.
The panel is compact and decision-focused. Its first row follows the AGPro standard: one merged blue header row containing only the panel title. Panel location, panel theme, and panel font size are adjustable.
Labels are intentionally moderate. The script uses event labels plus sparse context labels so the chart stays alive without becoming crowded.
🧪 Practical Usage Workflow
1. Read the panel and check the active state.
2. Confirm whether the setup is validating, still valid, in watch state, in decay review, expired, or invalidated.
3. Check the decay band, validation rail, follow-through rail, and invalidation shelf.
4. Review labels for the most recent state change.
5. Interpret the output with broader market context before making any decision.
🔍 Interpretation Guidelines
Think of the Decay Score as a quality-loss meter, not a directional forecast.
A low Decay Score suggests that the setup is still holding its validation context.
A rising Decay Score suggests that time, weak progress, fading momentum, volatility loss, or trigger-side instability are reducing setup quality.
A Decay Review state means the setup deserves attention. It does not mean price must reverse or that a trade must be closed.
🚫 What This Script Is NOT
• Not a prediction engine
• Not financial advice
• Not an auto-trading system
• Not a guaranteed signal tool
• Not a generic support/resistance map
• Not a broad market regime classifier
⚠️ Limitations & Transparency
ATR-based rails can behave differently across markets, timeframes, and volatility regimes.
Fast news moves, thin liquidity, and wide spreads can distort validation and decay readings.
No rule-based tool can fully understand every market condition. The output should be read as structured context, not certainty.
🧠 Market Context Notes
Setup decay often matters most when the first trigger was valid but follow-through becomes uncertain. A setup can remain technically alive while losing momentum, time efficiency, or volatility support.
The script focuses on that middle zone between “still valid” and “clearly invalidated.”
🧾 Use Case Examples
When price breaks a recent range, validates with minimum travel, then stalls for many bars without reaching the follow-through rail, the Decay Score can rise into watch or review context.
When price temporarily loses the trigger side and then reclaims it, the script marks reclaim context and continues monitoring quality rather than treating the setup as automatically clean.
When price crosses the invalidation shelf, the setup is marked invalid inside this rule set.
🧱 System Philosophy
Setup Decay Tracker follows the AGPro planning approach: the best public tools should help traders make a decision, not simply show another signal.
The script is designed to answer practical questions:
Is this setup valid?
How much quality has it lost?
Where is the invalidation?
Is follow-through still acceptable?
What should I review now?
🔐 Non-Promise Statement
This script does not provide certainty.
It does not guarantee outcomes.
It provides a structured way to monitor setup quality decay after validation.
📉 Risk Disclosure
Trading involves risk.
Users are responsible for their own analysis, decisions, risk management, and trade execution.
This script is for educational and analytical purposes only and does not provide financial advice.
📚 Educational Note
Use the tool to study how setup quality changes after the first valid trigger. The most useful reading often comes from comparing the panel state, decay band, labels, and broader market context together.
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