Since 2004
25 --> declines touch the 200 day SMA
8 --> continued into a larger correction
17 --> rebounded to some level
8/25 = 32% chance of bearish
17/25 = 68% chance bullish
Looking at the trend since 2004, it may take a week or two at these levels before it chooses its direction.
If I had to guess, this could be a likely match to today's place in the...
dec 13 marks 90 weeks from march 23 2020 bottom.
11%-20% declines is what i will be looking for.
look for top of square of 52 as resistance around the 478-481 area.
important weekly angles are being broken. be careful as a lot is now pointing to this being more than just a simple correction.
there is no doubt that taxing hurts economic growth more than it helps. the bull market of the 80s didnt start till regan lowered taxes after seeing the 70s with high tax rates.
santa might bring lumps of coal this winter.... no pun...
Here is a simple analysis using 4 moving averages and a regression channel start on March 24, 2020. VWMA 20 days (shown as a band with SMA 20 in the middle), SMA 50, 100, and 200 days.
The S&P is at a make or break moment. It broke below the regression channel on Monday and is hang on the edge of it today. You can also see that it found support on the 100 day...
Lost linear regression channel (black) that started on March 24, 2020. Still in the regression channel from Dec 26, 2018 to Feb 19, 2020. Will it bounce back up to regain black channel, or use the blue channel as support? That noticeable unfilled gap around 400 is still waiting to be filled, which could come into play if it loses the blue channel.
4H
This is my latest and best attempt at an Elliott wave count for the S&P. Rather than just guess at waves, I prefer to use fib levels to help identify them. Assuming that I have wave 1 correct, then I see a wave 3 with impulse that is closing in on it final subwave 5. That hopefully should bring us to a solid correction for a wave 4 before making a long push for...
This recent strong rally looks a lot like the one in August to me. Both the cRSI and PMO seem to be indicating that some level of pull back is inbound.
1D
2h
Pattern looks very similar. Let's see if we get a move up or down tomorrow to validate.
And because I have a million different ideas on these charts.
And one more
Just trying to take a look at the bigger picture today. I see a nice rising wedge pattern off the March 2020 low. I also see a fan pattern that does a great job of defining both the important low and high peaks since 2017.
4h lcose up
motive wave fib levels
Just in case this week is the end of motive wave 3, we could see a max pull back to around 0.382.
Just a thought based on past patterns. Maybe this is the end of the road or we could push a bit higher to meet the 3550 S/R line. FYI, there are several gap ups that need to be filled with a correction.
I marked up some key trading channels for the S&P.
March rally
2009 rally
Note that on a multi year time frame linear regressions take teh form of a triangle.
You can only see the 2009 rally linear regression in 1D time frame
Note that it stopped at S/R line this morning. This is just a touch above the 0.618 fib level between recent bottom and ATH. Is it going to rally past and melt up or was this a last gasp before correction?
Close up.
