First you have the FDIC come out and say no matter what we can whether a large US Bank failure - out of nowhere! Japan is stuck in a corner, can't sell bonds to defend its currency, and can't raise rates enough. Like every Central Bank they're stuck. So now a large US bank will be "allowed" to fail that will give Powell the excuse to cut rates - leading to a large...
Thanks to @TORNADOF5 for reminding me about this.
A friend sent me a tweet last night about how banks are levered up on debt and that prompted me to look at the chart of KRE.
As you might remember, AMEX:KRE was one of the worst performing ETFs at the beginning of this year with the failure of a ton of local banks. But since earlier this year, I haven't...
Despite the feds continuing to say they won’t be cutting rates much or anytime soon , which lower rates is better for the banks, and many other interest rate sensative stocks, the KRE in my veiw is gearing up for a big move up.
It’s slamming its head against the downtrendinf reistance.
It’s got a double bottom holding up and now consolidating in a pennant...
Regional banks had a big surge in late 2023. Now, after a period of consolidation, some traders may expect further gains.
The first pattern on today’s chart of the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF is the falling trendline along the highs of January and early March. KRE is trying to clear that resistance, which may suggest a breakout is starting.
Second, price...
The spike in commodity prices heled tattoo the bond market. The bond market hates inflation. When bonds dive it usually hits the interest rate sensitive regional bank index. The bear flag that developed in the KRE on an hourly chart last night made me more confident to stay short overnight. I am now looking to cover KRE under the 48 level.
Remember when spy was 350 and regional banks getting crushed and a few went under, to stop the bleed Fed came came out with QE and called it The Bank Funding Program and injected tons money to loan them from collapsing, and today one of those banks went under. Know come March 11 comes the date those 186 regionals banks have to repay well guess what they are BROKE...
... for a 1.68 credit.
Comments: ETF IV > 35% with 30-day IV at 37.9%.
Collecting 1/3rd the width of the wings of a 5-wide; 1.68 credit on BPE of 3.32; 50.6% ROC at max; 25.3% at 50% max.
It was kind of a toss-up between doing this as an iron fly or as an iron condor due to the size of the underlying, so compromised, going in somewhat aggressively with the...
Everything TECH, AI, and somewhere in between rocketing to new highs for whatever reason.
Two major wars related to fundamental human existence (East-West philosophy and fundamental religion) without end in sight.
Housing, homelessness, food poverty in supposed "developed societies" reaching unprecedented levels.
Economic reports show nothing wrong at all.
I...
Growth in general is looking more and more promising and I'm expecting KRE to show this. I think bears may struggling keeping this contained at 45. We'll see how this one plays out...
Rally back to 45$ is a 70%/30% with the bull flag.
Five counts to the downside, potentially three more counts down or stabilize.
Bull flag, and nice bull pendant on the daily forming today as it bounced perfectly off resistance.
Looking at KRE during the final hour of trade this morning on the US markets, KRE represents a potential bearish opportunity should momentum continue and lower highs and lower lows be made past the current position, considering breach of recent support levels aligning with technical indicators of RSI and DMI. Personal stop loss for the trade would be the high of...
Traders,
For the second time this year, regional banks are threatening to cross on over an essential support that has carried us through this secular bull market for 14 (going on 15) years! If our support breaks, I fear that regional banks could drag everything else down with it. Remember, it is regional banks that hold the loans for much of commercial real...
KRE head and shoulders bearish set up, easy low 30s target, higher rates, wider AL mismatch due to longer durations of Mortgages+MBS, Capital Base deterioration due to CMBS defaults >>>
Fed to the rescue aka Regionals to fold into Big6...continued
The AMEX:KRE has performed remarkably well since the lows in May. But mounting issues with rates and the Fed not showing signs of dropping rates will continue to prove the index needs to go lower. Options data suggests strong Put pressure into the end of the month at $42 where lower strike prices open by Oct expiration at $40 with strong open interest. If rates...
