Caught a little IV increase in TBT and looking to deploy smaller amounts of capital here.
Trade Setup:
-1 TBT Apr 21 35/40/40/45 Iron Fly (Synthetic Straddle) @ $2.52
DTE: 51
Max Win: $252
Max Loss: $248
Break evens: 37.48 & 42.52
Trade Management: Profit target is 25% or ~$63. Small % of portfolio is used here so the first management I will do is a...
TBT had a long term breakout last November. Looks like it is working on a re-test. A close about $43 might be a game changer (to confirm the death of bond bull market). It is still too early to make the call.
Trump Policy could have some bullish impact on oil exploration. Options Bull Call Spread is ideal for the option traders with a time horizon all the way to July. Or a long Call (short put) Option Leap contract with a time horizon of about 2 years.
Hindsight traded 101 but a perfect example of a bull recoil trade ... that I completely missed !
Held range July til Sep. Gapped up and rallied into 33
(that move eroded long term bearish trend line)
Retraced to 50% at 31 and then took off
TBT had a great run for the past several months and is now at resistance. Note the dominating trend is still down.
We need to see a breakout, a higher low, and a higher high to confirm the trend change.
We got some movement in Bonds, and a small rise in Volatility. The Implied volatility is above the last year average, knowing that volatility is always overstated I look every opportunity to sell some premium. This is a small trade, but I will be selling the 33/30 Strangle 49 days from expiration for $1.22 per contract with a probability of making money at...
If you're going for a Long/Call position then you may want to consider putting a tight stop loss at around 30.30 where the red line is. This is just an idea so I won’t post updates here.
