VANGUARD ENERGY INDEX FUND

While a bit premature, a tactical long position in VDE with a tight stop makes sense. IF Energy is making a lower-intensity higher-low then it may turn around these levels. Stop is tight because the ST downtrend has not been broken yet. Risk/Reward is compelling.

In June 2010, after 50% retrace it bounced strongly and gained 66% in the next 10 months. Is it in a similar situation today? we will have to see how it behaves in June.

short to 88

VDE broke out strongly this week, ended its down trend and started its up trend. There will be pullbacks and can be buying opportunities.

MACD broke out, RSI rising channel formed. and price is breaking out of the channel. A pullback from here is reasonable but a continuing rising RSI may signal a strong breakout in coming weeks.

Comparing with 2008 bottom process, 2016 so far has similarly diverged RSI and MACD. This may indicate a bottom might be in. Will need breakout to confirm.

Pulled backed logically from red resistance. Nothing is concerning at this point. We will what it brings next week. 10 MA, RSI and MACD all healthy. Will be concerned if pink line and 10 MA gets taken out.

Still a little early to call, but past bottom triangle patterns strongly suggest the chance is good. To confirm, we want the red resistances to be cleared. MACD has already been in the positive zone.

VDE bounced of blue support line from 2009. Meanwhile DXY (dollar index) is facing red resistances.

Financial media began to talk about market bottom, and recent Fed comment is dovish. Energy stock has been hit among the hardest and sit on support line right now. Can it turn around soon? No idea yet but deserve close attention.