While the markets were red across the board the defensive stocks XLP ( consumer staples ) had the worst day which looks like it could be the start of a sector rotation back into growth. As you can see every time the market is crashing correcting or having turbulence XLP outperforms SPY. We were in a large counter trend rally during this correction which looks to...
Consumer staples seem to be strongly overbought, the downturn is obvious, this will help other sectors in terms of money flows rotation. No good buys in sector, everything is overvalued - tells you something, doesn't it
Usually Consumer Staples, a risk-off sector, has an inverse correlation with the S&P500 . In this chart, strong uptrends in the XLP / SPX (blue line) coincides with S&P500 (green line) corrections or crashes (circles). There is a possibility that the bottom of the XLP / SPX was the below white line in the chart, while the top one, a historically strong...
Investors preference between XLP and QQQ is important to pay attention to as it shows the trade-off of "risk off equities" (XLP) versus "Risk on equities" (QQQ). The last time XLP was at these levels relative to Tech was in 1999!
The chart above shows XLP/QQQ. As you can see, XLP outperforms heavily during larger degree market corrections. Since December 2021...
Failing 1.272 extension. I ultimately expect to see this ratio back at the 0.618 retracement (sub 2.00). As long as this ratio is under pressure, staples > discretionary stocks. If you're wondering how to play this, look up the holding in each etf. Look for shorts in stocks in XLY and longs in stocks in XLP.
This idea is a little out of the norm for me. I generally stick to broad market, but from time to time I play sectors.
Credit Received: 0.36 or $36 / contract
Strikes: Short 73 Long 70
Max Loss: 300-36 = $264 per contract
Short Leg Delta: 30 Delta (more on this below)
1. Market is being beat up by both the Ukraine - Russia situation and...
Daily Chart Report
XLP looks like it is forming a bull flag. If it breaks out to the upside then the first price target would be the ATH resistance level. If it breaks down then you will find support around the 73 level. If you see the indicator below the two lines are compressing. A compression always leads to an expansion. A big move is in the cards next week....
Nearing a support zone after a false breakout of the 1.618 extension. Could see a bounce in growth stocks end of month into Feb if it holds. Given the false breakout, I anticipate this support zone to ultimately fail in the coming weeks/months.
I use sector ETFs in my IRA account. Currently, I hold XOP and XLF, and I wish I held XLE. I will try to buy XLP (Which shouldn't be a problem) next week.
For Week 4, I'm expecting XLF to firm up and XOP to come in a bit. XLE would be kind to give me an entry point at prior resistance/ support, but we'll see. Oil looks darn strong at the moment.
XLP is coming up to a potential top with a morning star starting to for on 24hr. Looks to be forming a broadening top as well. pushed up to a nice fib level for potential reversal with strong selling volume at the top. Momentum is drying up on the 1 hr and 4hr as well as multiple bearish divergences