Looking at AMEX:XRT strongly leading most other growth stocks, we have reason to believe it may continue. AMEX:IWM is holding up well but discretionary stocks in the space are looking a bit stronger than other growth areas of the market like AMEX:KRE and AMEX:ARKK
XRT on the hourly has started to form what could be a Bullish head and Shoulders, if it plays out it could result in the XRT making a 0.886 Fibonacci Retrace likely starting before the end of the week. Additionally, the RSI has a Bullish Shark formation which could serve as further confirmation of the low.
Small caps have surged to fresh highs dating back to the first quarter of 2022. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has suddenly become a darling among sellside strategists and even buyside macro portfolio managers. Recall it was just two months ago when the group traded around 12 times next year’s earnings estimates. Jump ahead to today, and a 25% rally since October 27...
Listening to the last earnings call we heard it over and over again.... weak retail... weak buyers... retail is dying. We need a health contraction. I don't suggest shorting this one... but once the bottom is in, it could be a fun one to ride to the top again.
Rejecting down trendline, below 50 DMA and the option flow ratio for March 17th is 4:1 puts.
Very strong numbers from economy today, which means the FED will have to raise rates again at some point this year.
I have been following the FOMC for 6 years, take every meeting cautiously. We also have CPI numbers on the 14th.
I am holding MArch 24th 61 puts at $1.15
GL!
Keep an eye on Retailers in the US. Fundamentally it doesn't feel right but technically its telling a different story. Nice consolidation off the 200 weekly ma since may Last year. Level is clear here. A convincing weekly break above $66.50 should see this move higher to at least a target of $77.50
Not looking good... there could be another leg down for XRT which would drag stocks like GME to $16.4
An imminent market crash could support this move...
A composite chart of SPY, SPX, QQQ, TQQQ, VXX, SQQQ, XRT and some other names.
imgur.com
I think the market is going down a lot in the short term and it's starting.
Hey, I think XRT is going to hold up over the next few weeks despite sweeping the lows. I think this looks like it does back in 2008/9 when it is all said and done.
AMEX:XRT
Possible Scenario: SHORT
Evidence: Money-Flow, Price Action
PT: 58$
* I opened a short position by PUTS for 10/21/2022, strike 58$, 2.167$ each contract.
Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
I’ve been looking at the retail sector especially since the consumer willingness to spend has been shifting to services/ experiences and entertainment.
Household cleaning, groceries, pets, alcohol, recreational vehicles all have seen drops in spend from Q1 2022 to Q2 2022
Walmart has also started laying off people and have...
