Bitcoin - Drop to 42k later this year! (Everyone liquidated)Bitcoin is looking like it wants to drop to 42k in Q3 2026! A few months ago, all moon boys thought that we were going to go to 200K or 500K, but instead we are going down! I remember these moon boys very well, because they were criticizing my ideas and spitting in the comment section on my bearish ideas. Now they are, however, liquidated and forced to go back to work.
Why do I call for 42k? It's a major point of interest for the whales. This is a level where pretty much everyone has their stop losses because it's below the previous wave (4) on the chart. When we take a look at the recent price action again in past months, we see that Bitcoin is pretty much in a free fall mode. There are no major pullbacks to the upside, it's just going down without any uptrends. Altcoins are bleeding as well.
In the short term there is only 1 strong support that is waiting to be hit - 0.618 FIB + 200 weekly MA. I believe we will see a strong bounce from this dynamic support, but I would take profit after a small pump again, because as I told you, we are going to go most likely down to 42k.
When altcoin season? Definitely not any time soon! We can forget about alt season as long as the BTC dominance chart is going up. It's been in an uptrend for many years, and there are no signs of weakness yet.
Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! I am very transparent with my trades. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
In-depth trading ideas
BITCOIN latest Death Cross historically does -50% drop from hereBitcoin (BTCUSD) has just completed a Death Cross on the 3D time-frame, which is when the MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the MA200 (orange trend-line).
Every time this took place since 2014 during a Bear Cycle, BTC dropped by at least another -52%. That was the case of the 2022 and 2018 Bear Cycles, while in 2014 it declined by -57%.
At the same time, it reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (in 2022 and 2018) from the level the Death Cross happened 2014 bottomed a little over the 1.618 Fib).
As a result, if history repeats itself, the above levels create an 'Effective Buy Zone' of $40000 (1.618 Fib) to $36000 (-52%).
Do you think Bitcoin can drop this low?? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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#BITCOIN: Where Are The Sellers Now? Still Targeting $200,000! 🔺Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): We are still targeting our previous target of $200,000. The price has moved or reversed exactly from the area identified in our recent analysis. It is currently trading at $72,000 with strong bullish volume.
🔺 Our first target is $104,000, the liquidity void area, which will be reached once the price hits this level. A small bearish correction is possible after the correction is completed, after which the price could move towards $124,000.
🔺Furthermore, our final target on the chart is $134,000. However, we are targeting $200,000. This may seem an unrealistic target to some, but with a long-term view, we believe the price could reach it. We recommend patience, setting stop-loss and entry points and making a well-considered decision.
🔺This analysis is based on technical analysis and incorporates some fundamental thinking. However, we strongly advise conducting your own research.
BTC Weekly Structure Shows Potential Reaction at Major SupportThe chart highlights a rising structural zone marked as MAJOR SUPPORT, where price has reacted multiple times in the past. The green circles show several historical reactions where the market touched this rising support area and moved upward, confirming the importance of this level in the long-term structure.
After the most recent interaction with the MAJOR SUPPORT, price expanded strongly and created a large bullish move. This expansion is illustrated by a measured structure that later forms a consolidation box before the next upward push. Following the strong rally, the market formed a peak and started declining.
The decline is measured using the projections marked 2x and 3x, showing how the downward movement mirrors a proportional range of the previous expansion. The projected 3x movement extends downward toward the lower region where the Reversal Area is marked.
This Reversal Area aligns closely with the rising MAJOR SUPPORT, highlighting a zone where the measured decline meets an important historical support level.
Speculative Outlook
The current structure suggests that the market may continue its downward movement following the projected 2x–3x range. If this decline continues, price could move toward the marked Reversal Area, which sits near the rising MAJOR SUPPORT.
According to the projected path shown on the chart, price may first drop into the Reversal Area and interact with the MAJOR SUPPORT zone. If buyers respond at this level as they have previously, the market could form a reaction from this area and begin moving upward again.
However, if the downward pressure remains strong and price fails to stabilize within the Reversal Area, the support structure could weaken. In that case, the market may continue moving lower before finding another area of balance.
For now, the chart suggests a possible move downward into the Reversal Area, followed by a potential upward reaction from the MAJOR SUPPORT region.
The way to find Non-Retest Supply/DemandInitial Breakouts
Price first breaks above previous resistance levels multiple times.
Each breakout creates higher highs and pushes the market upward.
This indicates strong buying momentum during that phase.
Strong Upward Expansion
After the final breakout, price accelerates sharply upward.
The move becomes extended and reaches a new local high.
Immature Breakout at the Top
Near the peak, the breakout above the previous high is weak.
The move fails to maintain upward continuation.
This suggests buying strength is weakening.
First Breakdown
Price drops below a short-term support area.
This is the first sign that sellers are entering the market.
No Retest of the Broken Area
Normally, after a breakdown, price may return to test the broken level again.
In this case, the chart shows no retest.
Instead, price consolidates slightly and then continues moving downward.
Supply Without Retest
Sellers dominate immediately after the breakdown.
Because selling pressure is strong, price does not return to the previous level.
The market continues forming lower highs and lower lows inside the highlighted zone.
Continuation Downward
The grey zone illustrates a sustained downward phase.
Price gradually declines as selling pressure persists.
Copper vs Gold: A Signal That the Crypto Bear Market May Be NearMarkets often reveal risk appetite before it becomes obvious. One of the most interesting indicators is the Copper vs Gold ratio. Historically, when copper begins to outperform gold, it signals a shift toward risk-on sentiment in global markets.
Copper is widely seen as a growth and industrial metal, closely tied to economic activity. Gold, on the other hand, tends to perform best during risk-off environments, when investors seek safety. Because of this dynamic, the copper/gold relationship can act as a macro signal for broader market cycles.
On the chart above, we can see that the Copper/Gold ratio has reached a long-term trendline support, an area that previously marked important turning points. Historically, similar moments have coincided with phases where risk assets began to stabilize and eventually recover.
When we compare this to BTC, an interesting pattern emerges. Bitcoin’s major bull cycles often followed periods where macro indicators started shifting from risk-off toward risk-on conditions.
This does not mean Bitcoin cannot go lower from here. Markets can always overshoot, and further volatility is possible. However, if the Copper vs Gold ratio begins to rebound from this level, it could indicate that the end of the crypto bear market may be closer than many expect.
In macro markets, shifts in sentiment usually happen quietly before the majority notices. The Copper/Gold ratio may be one of those early signals worth watching.
Bitcoin 4H Chart – Key Support & Resistance Levels with Bullish On the 4-hour timeframe of BTC/USD, price is currently trading near the 69,227 key support zone after a strong corrective move. The market structure shows consolidation above strong support at 62,851, indicating potential accumulation.
Immediate resistance levels are placed at 74,120 and 79,194, followed by major resistance at 84,333 and 87,437. A confirmed breakout above these levels could open the path toward 90,000+ and extended bullish momentum.
Failure to hold above 66,442 may trigger downside pressure toward 62,851. Overall bias remains cautiously bullish while price sustains above major support zones.
BTC/USD – Key Support & Target ZonesThe chart highlights critical support and resistance levels for BTC/USD. The blue upward channel trendline indicates strong dynamic support, while the 80,000 line marks the potential major resistance/target zone. Price is expected to bounce from the current support zone, with potential upward movement toward 76,212, 78,924, and 80,000 levels. Monitor key levels for price reaction, pullbacks, or breakout confirmations.
BITCOIN started its trademark Turbulence Period based on VIX.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the 6th month of its new Bear Cycle, having tested last month the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently acting as Support.
Today's analysis is unique as it incorporates the Volatility Index (VIX) in such a way that it shows how the market is acting relative to the previous Bear Cycles.
VIX (blue trend-line) has been rising aggressively since December and the current Iran-U.S. war is only making matters worse. In fact, VIX has been spiking periodically since June 2024, with its previous Leg of aggression being in early 2025, which was due to Trump's global Tariff War. We call this Volatility Box, the 'Turbulence Period'. And historically, VIX has always had such periods starting around the same time BTC had its Bear Cycles.
This time seems to be no different as a Higher Highs trend-line is being formed on VIX, a distinct characteristic of all previous Turbulence Periods. As a result, Bitcoin's Bear Cycle is unlikely to stop here, in fact based on the previous Cycle, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1W MA450 (red trend-line) Zone is expected to introduce the 2nd Phase of the Bear Cycle, a long-term bottom formation.
So do you agree with this VIX cheat-sheet? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Selena | BTCUSD · 1H – Liquidity Test Near Channel ResistanceBITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD
After forming higher lows along the channel support, BTC pushed aggressively into the upper boundary where buy-side liquidity rests above previous highs. Price is currently testing this area of resistance. Such zones often trigger short-term rejections before the market either consolidates or continues toward higher liquidity levels.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀
• Hold above 70,000 structure
• Break above 74,000 resistance
• 🎯 Target 1: 75,500
• 🎯 Target 2: 77,000
• 🎯 Target 3: 79,000
❌ Bearish Case 📉
• Rejection below 73,500
• 🎯 Target 1: 71,000
• 🎯 Target 2: 69,500
• 🎯 Target 3: 68,000
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 73,800 – 74,200
Major Resistance 🔴: 74,500 – 75,000
Support 🟢: 70,000 – 70,500
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice
BITCOIN Dead-cat-bounce almost over. Is $50000 next?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is making this week a strong counter-trend (Bear Cycle) rally, confirming to a large extent the cross Cycle analysis we published almost two months ago (February 17, see chart below):
The model accurately predicted a rise to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (around $72500) from the last High, with BTC touching $74000 even. Based on this, we thought it would be a good idea to revisit this chart and even make some additions to more accurately help us project the next stages of the Bear Cycle.
First of all, as you can see, based on the 2022 Bear Cycle, we are on Consolidation Stage 2, which in June 2022 was kept under the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Technically that is our Resistance currently. So as long as it holds, there are high probabilities to see the model continue to be repeated. Even the 1D RSI sequences among the two fractals are similar, with the RSI currently sitting at 56.00 around the same level as June 2022 (52.00).
So after Consolidation 2 got rejected on the 1D MA50 in 2022, BTC had another sharp sell-off, targeting the -0.5 to -0.618 Fibonacci extension Zone. The bottom of Consolidation 2 Stage was on the -0.5 Fibonacci extension. With the February 2026 Low being on the -0.618 Fib ext also, we can confirm that a strong symmetry exists between the Bearish Leg structures of the two Bear Cycles.
As a result, if the same conditions continue to apply and the 2022 script continues to be replicated, Bitcoin should target next at least the new -0.5 Fib ext a little under $50000. What could follow after that is Consolidation Stage 3, which can potentially be concluded with a 1D MA100 (green trend-line) test and rejection (under the 0.618 Fib as in July 2022) around $60000, followed by the final Bearish Leg to the eventual Bear Cycle bottom near the -0.236 Fib ext, a little over $40000.
Even though every Cycle is different, their core macro characteristics remain similar. So far the 2026 Bear Cycle is copying closely he 2022 one and it remains to be seen if it will continue to do so. This analysis only serves as a fair depiction/ path projection on the basic Resistance/ Support structures for the rest of the Bear Cycle.
So do you think 2026 will continue to copy 2022? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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How the Iran–US Conflict Affects Markets (And What Traders WatchWhen tensions rise between major geopolitical players, financial markets rarely stay calm. Conflicts involving the United States and Iran tend to receive particular attention from traders because of the region’s importance to global energy supply and trade routes.
The first market that usually reacts is oil.
The Middle East accounts for a significant portion of global oil production, and a large share of that oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important shipping routes in the world. Even the possibility of disruption in this area can move oil prices quickly. Markets begin pricing in the risk of supply shortages long before any actual shortage occurs.
For traders, this matters because oil is not just another commodity. It has a direct impact on the broader economy.
When oil prices rise, the cost of transportation, manufacturing, and logistics increases across many industries. Companies spend more to produce and move goods, which often feeds into higher consumer prices. This creates inflation pressure, something central banks closely monitor when making interest rate decisions.
Because of this connection, spikes in oil prices can affect multiple markets at once. Equity indices may weaken as higher energy costs reduce corporate margins. Currencies of oil-exporting countries sometimes strengthen, while oil-importing economies may face additional pressure.
Another important effect is the shift in market sentiment.
Geopolitical conflicts increase uncertainty. During these periods, many institutional investors reduce risk exposure and move capital toward assets that are perceived as safer or more stable. This can increase volatility across equities, commodities, and currencies, even in markets that are not directly connected to the conflict itself.
However, one of the biggest mistakes traders make during geopolitical events is assuming the first market reaction will continue indefinitely.
Markets tend to react very quickly to headlines, often within minutes. That first move is usually driven by uncertainty and speculation rather than confirmed information. As more details become available, the market often reassesses the situation. If supply disruptions or economic impacts appear less severe than expected, prices can retrace a large portion of the initial move.
This is why experienced traders often focus less on the headline itself and more on how the market behaves after the first reaction.
If oil spikes but then stabilizes at a higher level, it may suggest that the market expects a longer-term impact on supply. In that case, energy-related assets may continue trending. On the other hand, if the initial spike fades quickly, it often signals that the market believes the situation will not significantly affect global supply.
Another useful observation is how different markets react relative to each other. For example, if oil rises sharply but equity markets remain stable, it may indicate that investors expect the impact to stay limited to the energy sector. But if equities, currencies, and commodities all start moving together, it usually signals broader risk-off sentiment across the market.
For traders, the key takeaway is that geopolitical news creates volatility, but volatility alone is not a strategy. The real edge comes from understanding how markets typically process uncertainty.
The headline triggers the move, but the market’s reaction over the following hours and days reveals whether the move is temporary or the beginning of a larger shift. Traders who focus on that second phase tend to make better decisions than those reacting purely to the initial news.
BTCUSD Continuing Its Downward MoveThe chart shows a clear bearish structure with price trading under strong resistance and forming lower highs and lower lows. Selling pressure remains dominant as the market continues to move downward after rejecting higher levels. This movement suggests that sellers are in control and the momentum favors further decline in the short term. If the current bearish trend continues, the price may move toward the first target at 66,240. A strong break below this level could open the path toward the second target at 65,044, where temporary support may appear. However, if selling pressure persists, the market may extend the decline toward the third target near 63,024. Traders should watch for confirmation signals and manage risk carefully as volatility may increase around these key support zones.
If you found this XAUUSD analysis helpful, don’t forget to LIKE 👍 and COMMENT 💬!
BTCUSD Bullish Triangle Breakout.....
The BTCUSD chart shows a **bullish triangle formation** where price consolidates between rising support and horizontal resistance. The market respected the **ascending trend line**, creating higher lows and building buying pressure. A clear **Break of Structure (BOS)** occurs as price breaks above the triangle resistance, confirming a **buy-side direction**. This breakout suggests bullish continuation as buyers gain control of the market.
BITCOIN at $50k would follow exactly the 2022 script.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to replicate the 2022 Bear Cycle, in fact it's been repeating the price action even before it as the build up sequence since 2021 is identical to the one of late 2024 - 2025.
BTC is right now at the 2nd Stage of consolidation right above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1st Stage was on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). With the 1W RSI oversold (below 30.00) as in June 2022, we might be facing a break below the 1W MA200 soon and new consolidation below it.
The November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom was priced exactly on the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) after it marginally broke below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Even though this time the bottom might be even lower (45k-40k), a $50000 entry seems technically like a good opportunity for long-term buying.
So do you think BTC will continue replicating the 2022 Bear Cycle to the point it hits $50000 at least? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Range Break Retest. Is Another Leg Down Coming?Bitcoin is currently testing a key resistance level after a strong breakdown, and the structure on the chart tells a familiar story: range → breakdown → new range → potential continuation lower.
The First Range and Breakdown
Earlier on the chart, Bitcoin was trading inside a large consolidation range between roughly 84K and 95K.
After multiple attempts to break higher, price finally lost the range support, triggering a sharp sell-off. This breakdown led to a fast move down toward the low 60K region, showing how quickly momentum can shift once major support fails.
Large ranges often act like energy accumulation zones and when they break, the move can be violent.
The New Range
After the drop, Bitcoin started forming a new consolidation range between ~62K and ~70K.
This type of structure is very common after strong impulsive moves
Right now price is testing the upper boundary of this new range, which is acting as resistance.
Why This Level Matters
Notice how the previous range resistance also produced a rejection before the breakdown. Markets often repeat behavior because trader positioning tends to repeat.
If Bitcoin fails again at this resistance zone, the market could see another continuation move lower toward the 63K area
What to Watch
Two key scenarios:
1. Rejection from resistance
- Price fails near 70K
- Market returns toward 63K support
2. Breakout scenario
- Strong close above the range
- Possible reclaim of higher market structure
Buy The Dip: Bitcoin Is in a Strong Uptrend PhaseFrom my perspective, BTCUSD is strongly leaning toward a short-term bullish scenario , as both fundamental news and technical structure are aligned.
On the fundamental side, institutional money is flowing back into the crypto market , particularly through Bitcoin ETFs, providing solid support for price action. Recent developments highlight a broader recovery in risk assets and renewed capital inflows into the market. When risk-on sentiment dominates , Bitcoin is typically one of the first assets to benefit.
On the chart, the bullish structure is clearly established . Price has broken out of its accumulation range and delivered a strong push above the long-term ascending trendline. The 71,180 level is now acting as near-term support, and as long as price holds above this area, the higher low – higher high structure remains intact.
My preferred scenario is a minor pullback toward 71,000–71,200 to absorb short-term selling pressure, followed by a continuation move toward 74,200 and potentially 75,700. If 75,700 breaks with strong volume, BTC could open the door for an even more powerful upside expansion.
Beat Greed & Panic Selling – Bitcoin MindsetBeat Greed & Panic Selling – Bitcoin Mindset
Cryptocurrency trading is far more than just analyzing charts or price patterns; trader psychology plays a critical role in determining success or failure. Bitcoin and other crypto assets are extremely volatile, and this volatility often triggers two of the most powerful emotions in trading: greed and panic selling. These emotional responses can drastically influence decisions and, ultimately, profitability.
Greed: When the market experiences a strong rally, many traders are tempted to chase profits, increase their position sizes, or take on excessive risk. Greed can cloud judgment, leading to impulsive trades or ignoring proper risk management.
Fear / Panic Selling: When prices drop, traders may sell quickly to avoid losses. This panic often occurs at temporary market dips, causing them to miss future recoveries and long-term gains.
Understanding and managing these emotions is essential because they are the primary cause of many trading mistakes in crypto markets.
Why Mindset Matters in Bitcoin Trading
Your mindset can make or break your success in Bitcoin trading. While technical and fundamental analysis are important, the ability to control emotions often has an even greater impact.
Emotional Control: A disciplined trader avoids reacting impulsively to price swings. Emotional decisions usually lead to buying at peaks and selling at bottoms—the exact opposite of profitable trading.
Discipline: Following a pre-defined trading plan ensures that you make rational decisions based on analysis rather than emotion.
Patience: Cryptocurrency markets can be highly volatile in the short term, but Bitcoin historically tends to grow in the long term. Patience allows traders to ride out temporary corrections without panic.
Key Insight: The market does not care about individual traders’ emotions. Those who master their own mindset can see opportunities where others only see risk.
Techniques to Beat Greed
Greed can cause traders to overtrade, increase leverage, or ignore stop-losses. Some strategies to manage greed include:
Set Profit Targets: Decide in advance the level at which you will take profits. This reduces the temptation to hold indefinitely in hope of higher gains.
Partial Profit Booking: Secure part of your profits while leaving the rest in the trade to ride potential further upside. This balances safety and opportunity.
Risk Management: Never risk more than a small portion of your capital in a single trade. This protects your portfolio and reduces stress.
Avoid Overexposure: Resist the urge to “double down” or add to positions without a clear plan.
Techniques to Beat Panic Selling
Panic selling is often driven by fear of losing money, but it frequently leads to missed opportunities. To overcome panic selling:
Stay Calm During Dips: Understand that corrections are normal and often healthy for long-term trends. Avoid making decisions based purely on short-term fear.
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Buying small amounts during dips spreads risk and can reduce the negative impact of short-term volatility.
Focus on Fundamentals: Remember Bitcoin’s long-term adoption, network growth, and technological development. This perspective can prevent knee-jerk reactions to temporary price drops.
Keep Perspective: Market downturns are natural. Even sharp corrections often precede strong recoveries.
Mindset Principles for Bitcoin Success
Developing the right mindset is critical for trading consistently and profitably.
Embrace Volatility: Instead of fearing market swings, see them as opportunities to buy undervalued positions or take profits strategically.
Think Long-Term: Avoid letting short-term losses affect your overall strategy. Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong long-term growth despite temporary drops.
Detach Ego from Trades: Losses are part of trading; they do not reflect your ability or intelligence. Accept them as part of the process and move forward.
Consistency Over Emotion: Focus on making consistent, rational trades rather than reacting emotionally to every market move.
Practical Mindset Tools
Trading Journal: Record every trade, including the emotional state and rationale. This helps identify patterns of greed or fear.
Mindset Checklist Before Each Trade: Confirm profit targets, stop-loss levels, and risk percentage before executing trades.
Meditation & Mindfulness: Techniques to manage stress and emotional impulses can improve trading decisions.
Community & Mentorship: Discussing strategies with experienced traders can provide perspective and reduce emotional decision-making.
Conclusion
In cryptocurrency trading, mindset is as important as analysis. Traders who can manage greed, avoid panic selling, and maintain discipline and patience have a much higher chance of long-term success. By developing a strong Bitcoin mindset, you can transform emotional challenges into strategic advantages, making your trading more consistent, profitable, and stress-free.
💡 Tip: Use a mindset checklist before every trade. Check your profit target, risk exposure, and emotional state to ensure rational decisions under all market conditions.
BTC Bullish Channel Rebound – Potential Rally Toward $74K1️⃣ Market Structure
The blue zig-zag pattern indicates a corrective move after a strong impulse up.
Price dropped from the recent high near $74K and is now forming a potential higher low inside the channel.
The lower teal trendline is acting as dynamic support.
➡️ This suggests the overall structure remains bullish unless the channel breaks down.
📊 Key Levels
Current Price: ~ $67,185
Resistance / Targets:
🎯 $70,064 – First resistance (previous reaction zone)
🎯 $71,803 – Mid supply zone
🚀 $74,039 – Major target / previous high
These levels align with supply zones and prior liquidity areas.
🧭 Expected Scenario (Based on Your Projection)
Possible path shown on the chart:
Small bounce from channel support
Move toward $70K resistance
Pullback / consolidation
Break higher toward $71.8K
Final push to $74K liquidity zone
This forms a continuation pattern within the trend channel.
⚠️ Invalidation Level
The bullish setup weakens if:
Price breaks below the channel support
Especially a 4H close below ~65.5K–66K
That could trigger a deeper correction.
📈 What Makes This Setup Bullish
Ascending channel structure
Higher lows forming
Liquidity targets above price
Clear support reaction zone
✅ Simple Summary:
BTC is correcting inside a bullish channel, and if support holds, the market could rally toward $70K → $71.8K → $74K.
Bitcoin Retesting Trendline Support – Potential Bullish Reversal1️⃣ Uptrend Structure
The green diagonal zone shows a clear ascending trendline.
Price has respected this trendline multiple times (green circles mark the bounces).
Each touch created higher lows, confirming a healthy uptrend.
This means buyers are consistently stepping in at higher prices.
2️⃣ Breakout Behavior
On the left side of the chart there are two clear breakout structures.
Price consolidated, broke resistance, and continued upward.
This indicates strong bullish momentum earlier in the trend.
3️⃣ Current Market Position
Right now Bitcoin is:
Trading around $70.8K
Sitting exactly at the trendline resistance / previous structure
Approaching the marked reversal area (~$70K)
This zone is critical because it is:
Previous resistance
Trendline interaction
Psychological level $70K
4️⃣ Two Possible Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability if $70K Holds)
If price holds above the trendline and $70K support:
Targets could be:
$71,800
$72,500
$73,000 – $73,500
This aligns with the blue projected move on your chart.
🔴 Short-Term Pullback Scenario
If price rejects the reversal zone:
Possible retrace levels:
$69,800
$69,200
$68,500 (trendline retest)
A pullback to the trendline would still keep the overall uptrend intact.
5️⃣ Key Levels to Watch
Level Importance
$70,000 Major support / reversal zone
$71,000 Immediate resistance
$72,000 Momentum confirmation
$73,000+ Bullish expansion target
✅ Overall Bias:
Bullish continuation while price stays above the trendline (~$69.5K–$70K).
💡 Trading Insight:
The best setups usually occur when price retests the trendline and prints a bullish confirmation candle (engulfing / strong close).
BTC Warning: If $64,500 Fails, the Moon Mission is Cancelled!The 74k Rejection: A Classic Liquidity Grab
As predicted in our previous analyses, Bitcoin hit our target of $74,000. However, instead of flipping this level into support, the price action suggests a massive Liquidity Grab. Following this sweep, BTC is now showing bearish signals, indicating that the move was a distribution phase rather than a breakout.
Elliott Wave Perspective: The Monthly Cycle
On the Monthly Timeframe, we appear to be entering a corrective Wave 2.
This correction is likely a three-wave ABC structure.
Current price action suggests we are only finishing Wave A of this larger degree correction.
The Outlook: For long-term holders, the "Moon" target remains far off. We need a healthy correction to reset the indicators before the impulsive Wave 3 can begin.
3. Daily Confirmation: Wave 5 or Z?
Switching to the Daily Timeframe, the structure confirms that the final leg of this sub-sequence (either a Wave 5 or a Wave Z) is still in play. The bearish momentum remains strong, and the market hasn't shown a bottoming signal yet.
📉 The Critical Pivot: $64,500
Crucial Note: This bearish thesis is officially triggered if and only if BTC breaks and closes below the $64,500 level. * Below $64,500: The path to a deeper correction
Above $64,500: There is still a slim chance for a sideways consolidation, but the pressure is building.
⚠️ Advice for Holders
Patience is your best friend right now. Chasing the "Moon" immediately is risky. We must wait for the completion of this corrective structure before looking for new ATH entries. Protect your capital.
Selena | BTCUSD · 1H – Ascending Channel Liquidity SetupBITSTAMP:BTCUSD
After the deep liquidity sweep near the 63k region, buyers stepped in strongly and initiated a bullish recovery phase. Price is currently reacting around the 70k supply zone, which has previously acted as a strong reaction area. If the market successfully holds above this region and breaks through the minor resistance levels, the next liquidity target sits near the previous highs around 74k where buy-side liquidity is concentrated.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀
Hold above 70,000 support zone
🎯 Target 1: 72,000
🎯 Target 2: 74,000
🎯 Target 3: 76,000
❌ Bearish Case 📉
Rejection below 70,000 resistance
🎯 Downside Target 1: 68,000
🎯 Downside Target 2: 66,500
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 72,000 – 74,000
Major Resistance 🔴: 75,000 – 76,000
Support 🟢: 70,000
Major Support 🟢: 68,000
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
Bitcoin is ready to move to $80kBitcoin has successfully breached a multi-week trendline, signaling a potential shift in market structure.
The current price action indicates a pullback to the $70,600 breakout zone , which now serves as immediate support. This retest offers a high-probability entry point for traders seeking to capitalize on the next bullish leg.
The primary objective for this move is the significant resistance cluster near $81,200.
Sustained institutional inflows into Spot ETFs and aggressive corporate accumulation continue to provide a solid fundamental floor . These factors suggest that the current retracement is a consolidation phase rather than a reversal.
From a risk management perspective, the setup provides an exceptionally clear invalidation point. A stop loss placed strictly below the recently broken resistance, approximately at $68,000, minimizes potential capital loss. This tight risk control, paired with a target above $80,000, creates a highly asymmetric and professional risk-to-reward profile.
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